AZ with 7 points
- Thread starter m1fan
- Start date
Not trying to burst your bubble but points don't mean anything in AZ. They may "help" a little by giving him 7 numbers instead of 1. He has just as much chance of drawing as someone with no points. As a resident I have 9 and will not draw, yet my friend who has 3 will. I have seen it year after year. Don't count on anything with points.
PleaseDear
Long Time Member
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Well stated, points are fairly meaningless unless you are the max. point pool and have a set a side % and then go back into the regular type draw group if ya don't draw from the max. pool tags.
7 points is mid pool, toss the top 2-3 rifle tag units out of the mix and go for it for him in one of the many other great units.
Sure hope he draws and you get some great quality time with him.
7 points is mid pool, toss the top 2-3 rifle tag units out of the mix and go for it for him in one of the many other great units.
Sure hope he draws and you get some great quality time with him.
I guess we will see when the regulations come out, but if they do up the preference quota to 20%, you might as well forget drawing early rifle bull. More than 1/2 of the high point applicants are nonresidents, so the nonresident 10% cap will likely be filled in the initial 20% preference round.
happytohunt
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good luck on the draw...i always heard muzzleloader unit 9
S
sancarloshunter
Guest
I would go for Unit 10. I hunted in there last elk season for cow but saw a lot of bulls that would score over 370 and into the 400 range. Too bad I didn't have bull tag. Hopefully this year.
DonVathome
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Elmer Fudd is right many do not get this but it is already happing and will happen. Most hunts, especially and decent gunt hunt will rarely, if ever, issue tags to NR without max pnts. Max points for units starts at 7 and goes up from what I have noticed
Consider an archery tag for best odds. Might as well try now and possibly save yourself years of dropping the $100 just to apply.
Consider an archery tag for best odds. Might as well try now and possibly save yourself years of dropping the $100 just to apply.
M
MammasBoy
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LAST EDITED ON Apr-06-06 AT 11:57AM (MST)[p]Sad deal for everyone.
Neal
Neal
J
jaybob
Guest
You never know regardless of the BP, but I would look at 3c, 4a, 4B, 5A or B, and units 6A or 6B, if you can do some hiking in steep country. The early rifle hunts would be the best chance at finding bulls without much effort, but the November rifle hunts produce great bulls, you just got to get out and look around a bit harder. Good luck.
AZBuckSnort
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m1fan,
You do not state whether you're applying as a resident or nonresident, which would lessen your odds as you have to deal with the 10% max cap. That being said, bonus points DO help applicants. We prove this every NR hunter ed class we hold where we do a simple mock draw and it never fails that those with BP's do better as a group than those without, it's simple math and stats. It absolutely does not mean you are assured a tag, but you have a statistically better opportunity than the applicant without BP's.
I often read on this, and other forums, about how "BP's don't help", and then a long, sad tale is told about how the writer hasn't drawn for 10 years, yet his buddy at work has drawn 3 years in a row and 5 out of 7 years or some similar comment. I hear it all the time at hunter ed classes and wherever Az hunters meet up at a function and the talk turns to drawing permits. When you start to probe these comments with questions you find out that the "facts" are often exaggerated or just plain wrong. The buddy next door turns into an entire family of 5 that apply individually for 4 or more species and one member drew an antlerless tag! That becomes the "buddy next door who draws elk every year". The guy at work who draws the Kaibab every year turns out to be a guy who has drawn an early Kaibab hunt tag twice in 10 years and took a decent buck and the photo of the buck is on the hunter's locker at the shop and his buddy sees it every work day. I have dozens of stories like this i could relate, including my own.
I have had 2 bull elk tags, 3 deer tags, and 3 antelope tags in AZ in 20 years of applications. So I'm 8 for 20 (.400) at hunt opportunity over a 20 year period. No one draws "every year", but I'd gladly trade places with my 3 BP's for anyones' 7 BP's.
Too many AZ applicants are rigid about their unit selections and will only apply for early rifle bull, or for the bull elk hunts in 9, 10, & 8, as these units have produced the magazine cover shot grip 'n grin photos of late and have historically been top producers of incredible bull elk. That being said, virtually every unit in the state that has a bull elk hunt can produce trophy elk anyone should be proud to hang on a wall and to stuff a freezer full of elk venison. If you just have to put one of those hallowed elk hunt units on your application by all means do it, just don't put one of the others in the 2nd spot! Pick a unit with "better" draw odds for that 2nd spot and maybe a LO hunt in position 3 and let it ride for '06.
For a specific answer to your question about where your boy might apply...think archery and perhaps limited opportunity archery or the limited opportunity "any elk" rifle hunt in the units surrounding Flagstaff, AZ. A careful study of the regs and draw odds reports will allow you to mine a few gems from this area. Good luck in the drawings, with 7 BP's your boy is in the hunt for a decent permit this Fall.
You do not state whether you're applying as a resident or nonresident, which would lessen your odds as you have to deal with the 10% max cap. That being said, bonus points DO help applicants. We prove this every NR hunter ed class we hold where we do a simple mock draw and it never fails that those with BP's do better as a group than those without, it's simple math and stats. It absolutely does not mean you are assured a tag, but you have a statistically better opportunity than the applicant without BP's.
I often read on this, and other forums, about how "BP's don't help", and then a long, sad tale is told about how the writer hasn't drawn for 10 years, yet his buddy at work has drawn 3 years in a row and 5 out of 7 years or some similar comment. I hear it all the time at hunter ed classes and wherever Az hunters meet up at a function and the talk turns to drawing permits. When you start to probe these comments with questions you find out that the "facts" are often exaggerated or just plain wrong. The buddy next door turns into an entire family of 5 that apply individually for 4 or more species and one member drew an antlerless tag! That becomes the "buddy next door who draws elk every year". The guy at work who draws the Kaibab every year turns out to be a guy who has drawn an early Kaibab hunt tag twice in 10 years and took a decent buck and the photo of the buck is on the hunter's locker at the shop and his buddy sees it every work day. I have dozens of stories like this i could relate, including my own.
I have had 2 bull elk tags, 3 deer tags, and 3 antelope tags in AZ in 20 years of applications. So I'm 8 for 20 (.400) at hunt opportunity over a 20 year period. No one draws "every year", but I'd gladly trade places with my 3 BP's for anyones' 7 BP's.
Too many AZ applicants are rigid about their unit selections and will only apply for early rifle bull, or for the bull elk hunts in 9, 10, & 8, as these units have produced the magazine cover shot grip 'n grin photos of late and have historically been top producers of incredible bull elk. That being said, virtually every unit in the state that has a bull elk hunt can produce trophy elk anyone should be proud to hang on a wall and to stuff a freezer full of elk venison. If you just have to put one of those hallowed elk hunt units on your application by all means do it, just don't put one of the others in the 2nd spot! Pick a unit with "better" draw odds for that 2nd spot and maybe a LO hunt in position 3 and let it ride for '06.
For a specific answer to your question about where your boy might apply...think archery and perhaps limited opportunity archery or the limited opportunity "any elk" rifle hunt in the units surrounding Flagstaff, AZ. A careful study of the regs and draw odds reports will allow you to mine a few gems from this area. Good luck in the drawings, with 7 BP's your boy is in the hunt for a decent permit this Fall.
That may be your experience with exaggerated facts, however I will break down who has had what tags. My dad has drawn BULL elk tags in 1993,1994,1995,1999,2002. An old teacher of mine has drawn a BULL elk tag in 1998,2000,2001,2002,2003. Another old teacher has drawn a BULL elk tag in 1999,2000,2002. Anther friend of mine has drawn a BULL elk tag in 1998,2000,2002,2003. My wife and her dad both drew BULL elk tags the first year they put in for. My friend has had a BUCK antelope tag in 2000 (world record), 2001,2003,2004. Another friend has had a BULL elk tag in 1998,2000,2001,2003,2005. Another friends wife drew a 13b deer tag the very first year she applied. I however have never had a bull elk tag or antelope tag. And no these are not just people who I know through someone else, I have personal contact with each of them on a daily/weekly basis. Oh, by the way, every one of these elk and antelope tags listed above were for unit 10. That is 24 Bull elk tags for only 7 people. Figure that one out.
AZBuckSnort
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And everyone of the examples you've listed has had some type of bonus point right? Or are you claiming that neither your dad, nor your old teacher, nor another old teacher, nor friend 1, nor your wife, nor your father-in-law, nor friend 2, nor friend 3, nor friend 4's wife had any bonus points at the time of their applications? If any of them at any time had a bonus point when they applied then you would have to conclude that bonus points DO work. You cannot use your lack of success at drawing a specific tag as an example that bonus points do not work. The question that begs asking here is...why didn't you apply with your dad and or your wife? Using your list of their draw success it looks like you'd have had about 6 bull elk tags by now?
Seriously, it's not my intent to argue or bitterly debate this issue with you. I'm sure you're at the point where you are extremely frustrated at failing to draw, specifically, a bull elk tag and a buck antelope permit. It is frustrating to go year after year without drawing the tag you cherish. I really do feel your pain, remember I haven't drawn a bull elk tag nor an antelope tag since 1999 in AZ either! I went 15 years without a firearms deer tag in AZ, so I can relate. The reality is, especially for a resident, that if you have BP's, they are going to help you draw a tag. With as many BP's as you must have built up you sound like you're a max pointer, hang in there your primo hunt is coming man!
You are do some good luck in '06 and I'll bet that pile of BP's you have are going to deliver that luck to you sooner rather than later. By the way, lay off the early rifle bull elk tag in unit 10 and try for one of the archery permits or the Novemeber rifle hunt if you just have to have a unit 10 tag!
Seriously, it's not my intent to argue or bitterly debate this issue with you. I'm sure you're at the point where you are extremely frustrated at failing to draw, specifically, a bull elk tag and a buck antelope permit. It is frustrating to go year after year without drawing the tag you cherish. I really do feel your pain, remember I haven't drawn a bull elk tag nor an antelope tag since 1999 in AZ either! I went 15 years without a firearms deer tag in AZ, so I can relate. The reality is, especially for a resident, that if you have BP's, they are going to help you draw a tag. With as many BP's as you must have built up you sound like you're a max pointer, hang in there your primo hunt is coming man!
You are do some good luck in '06 and I'll bet that pile of BP's you have are going to deliver that luck to you sooner rather than later. By the way, lay off the early rifle bull elk tag in unit 10 and try for one of the archery permits or the Novemeber rifle hunt if you just have to have a unit 10 tag!
Yes some of them had only a couple and some of them had 0. my wife and her dad both had 0. The lady with the deer tag had 0. And a couple others had 0. Several of the people who drew unit 10 rifle bull tags drew them as a second choice.
I am not trying to argue with you either, I just don't know that people should get their hopes up with lots of bonus points. Its all just a gamble I guess. We don't apply together because we figure if we all apply seperately, we there is a better chance of at least one person getting a tag, and we all get to go. Oh, and I have never applied for the early rifle tag in 10, its all been archery.
I really do appreciate your support and hopefully you are right and I will get a tag this year, and next, and next, and next.........
I am not trying to argue with you either, I just don't know that people should get their hopes up with lots of bonus points. Its all just a gamble I guess. We don't apply together because we figure if we all apply seperately, we there is a better chance of at least one person getting a tag, and we all get to go. Oh, and I have never applied for the early rifle tag in 10, its all been archery.
I really do appreciate your support and hopefully you are right and I will get a tag this year, and next, and next, and next.........
I think that is exactly why our system is the best available system out there. We have a finite resource but an infinite number of people applying for a piece of the pie. At least every year when you apply you know you have a "chance". It may be a small one but we have all heard of the stories of people applying and getting drawn the first year they apply. I have been fortunate enough to draw a Kaibab deer tag 3 years in a row now, my 10 year old daughter drew a rifle antelope tag in unit 5 the first year she applied (she was tag #1 out of 5 tags), My wife drew the unit 10 early bull hunt with only 7 points, a friend of mine drew a Big Horn sheep tag 3 years ago the first year she ever applied and she didn't even have the hunter safety point!
But this is what makes it great. I could prove to anyone out there that statistically the odds do increase as you get more points. What happens after a few years of not drawing and then accumulating points the person decides to only apply for the "quality" units and hunts, thus bringing down there odds substantially.
I apply for NM and have yet to draw a tag. I just applied again and I know my odds of drawing are exactly the same or even worse if more NR's apply. In my mind that stinks but I play by there rules and try to keep my bickering to myself.
Preference points stink because you apply and know you have no chance at all of drawing. Now there is "creep" and it makes it nearly impossible for a middle aged guy to have a chance of drawing a decent hunt while they are still physically able too.
I would gladly trade my 3 elk bunus points for anyone's 4 or more points. I am a firm believer in points and I get a kick out people who say they don't work. They aren't guarantees but they do improve your chances of drawing.
If I was your son I would apply for a regular archery hunt and take your chances. He is young anyway. At his age it is more important to hunt and chase bugeling elk than it is to get that once in a lifetime bull. There are GOOD bulls in every unit.
Good luck and let us know how he does in the draw.
But this is what makes it great. I could prove to anyone out there that statistically the odds do increase as you get more points. What happens after a few years of not drawing and then accumulating points the person decides to only apply for the "quality" units and hunts, thus bringing down there odds substantially.
I apply for NM and have yet to draw a tag. I just applied again and I know my odds of drawing are exactly the same or even worse if more NR's apply. In my mind that stinks but I play by there rules and try to keep my bickering to myself.
Preference points stink because you apply and know you have no chance at all of drawing. Now there is "creep" and it makes it nearly impossible for a middle aged guy to have a chance of drawing a decent hunt while they are still physically able too.
I would gladly trade my 3 elk bunus points for anyone's 4 or more points. I am a firm believer in points and I get a kick out people who say they don't work. They aren't guarantees but they do improve your chances of drawing.
If I was your son I would apply for a regular archery hunt and take your chances. He is young anyway. At his age it is more important to hunt and chase bugeling elk than it is to get that once in a lifetime bull. There are GOOD bulls in every unit.
Good luck and let us know how he does in the draw.
PleaseDear
Long Time Member
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Ditto... Preference points suck....
Point codes suck too.....
You always have a chance with Bonus point states....
Point codes suck too.....
You always have a chance with Bonus point states....
DonMartin
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Jim is right about those bonus points. The draw is about mathematical probablities, not mathematical certaincies.
I'm a resident.
I've had two bull elk tags in 25 years of applying in Arizona.
I've had one AZ Strip deer tag. I have had two deer tags (gave one back though in 2004) in 15 years of applying.
I've had four muzzleloader antelope tags.
Yep there are always the stories about folks drawing year after year..and then there are those like me who draw two tags in 25 years..
Like Jim says, I'd rather had a fistful of points than 1 or 2.
Don Martin
I'm a resident.
I've had two bull elk tags in 25 years of applying in Arizona.
I've had one AZ Strip deer tag. I have had two deer tags (gave one back though in 2004) in 15 years of applying.
I've had four muzzleloader antelope tags.
Yep there are always the stories about folks drawing year after year..and then there are those like me who draw two tags in 25 years..
Like Jim says, I'd rather had a fistful of points than 1 or 2.
Don Martin
