Mt. Emily archery bulls - Oregon

[SteelieP17]

Well, well, well, it's time to put in again. I have 6 points (Oregon) and I am reasonably convinced I will draw Mt. Emily bow elk. Anybody know how that's been working out the last few years? The last two years I've spoken to a couple of different chaps who've hunted it and they tell me it is sick (good). They talk crazy about bugling in big bulls they couldn't shoot because they had spike-only/cow tags. I've seen the country and it looks fantastic. Few questions, if anybody knows: 1) Are there still elk up there? Is it worth my six points? 2) East or west side be better for bulls? 3) Does it get busy with spike-only hunters? 4) Anybody else planning on drawing this hunt so me and my buddy can compare notes with you over the summer?

Thanks again. Any reply, even smart-alecky replies, are greatly appreciated.

 

[muleyman]

Res or non-res?

 

[SteelieP17]

Resident of Klamath County, OR.

 

[muleyman]

I think you better look closer at the odds. There are 762 first choice applicants putting in for 52 tags. This means at about 9 points you will have a chance.

Start scouting soon if you don't know the area that way when you do get drawn, you'll be ready.

muleyman

 

[Oregonbowhunter]

Wrong about the odds. Look at ODFW's webpage under draw statistics. For Mt. Emily elk archery, 6 points puts him at the top of the list with a sure chance to draw.

 

[HighDesert]

LAST EDITED ON May-08-06 AT 02:00PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON May-08-06 AT 01:57?PM (MST)

First Off Oregonbowhunter you are wrong as far as almost gurantee I am a pretty damn good statistician so I am gonna put this out exactly what pat is looking at.

with 6 points going into the draw you stand a chance but it will be a coin flip for that unit as it is 50 tags with last years numbers there are 79 people who have applied and who have not drawn this tag as of yet with the same points as you. I am assuming you had 5 points last year in the draw. So if you applied there last you then you are one of those 79. You will also want to take away a couple of permits for PP people to jump in the draw. so 38 tags will go to preference points holders. the remaing 12 will go to the general draw. There is exactly what you are looking at in drawing the Mt. Emily Unit Bow tag. Good luck in your app.

Now lets have some fun 38 Wait there are more options here we have to alot that 1 tags will go to Non-residents and one tag to outfitter/guides tags. So now we are down to 36 tags lets make it just a nice round number of say 80 applicants with 6pts or more for first choice. That give you a 45% chance of drawing this tag as first choice with 6 points if everything remains the same as last year and no one with more PP jumps in ahead of you. So there are your Preference points odds.

Now with 12 tags going to the general draw mind you where anyone cane draw and with 762 total applicants we will remove 38 people from this giving us a total of 724 applicants going after 12 tags. So that gives you a general draw odds of roughly 1.6574585% chance of drawing this tag.

So now you add these 2 percentages together with your prefernce point draw being the same and you stand approximately a 23% chance of drawing this tag. Your overall percentage odds of drawing this tag are approximately 23% overall.

So good luck with your draw Next Oregon PP question LOL.
Dave

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON May-08-06 AT 01:54PM (MST)[p]depends on how many put in but they drew 10 apps out of 89 with 5 points last year. That leaves 79 apps for 38 reserved tags. Not a sure deal, more like 50/50 and this all assumes nobody with more points put in.


here you go:

http://www.dfw.state.or.us/resource...lled_hunts/reports/point_summary/2005_elk.pdf


check you pm's for my tip of the month.

 

[WapitiBob]

LAST EDITED ON May-08-06 AT 02:03PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON May-08-06 AT 02:02 PM (MST)

you info is incomplete..........

there are =2,037= applicants with 5 or more points in the point saver draw last year.
He may have a LONG time to wait.

Better put new batteries in that calculator, you're going to be at it a while.

 

[muleyman]

I knew somebody would back me up!!!

Good luck anyways!

jeremy

 

[HighDesert]

Bob LOL

in Quotes from my message LOL "everything remains the same as last year and no one with more PP jumps in ahead of you"

If they all jumped he would be there a long long long long time waiting LOL I can do those factors as well but that is a silly silly small number like ummmm lets say . 12/2037 approximately a 1/2 of a percent at drawing thie tag if all applicants switched over that had more then 5 points last year Hehehehe.

Dave

 

[northwesthunter]

So we have heard from the stat garuus now how about a little insight on the elk that are there if he draws.Is it a good unit and what should a guys expectations be if he drew this tag?? Tks nwhunter

 

[WapitiBob]

I sent him a pm with my tip for May.
Do a search, this unit was discussed at length last year.

 

[motcha]

There are a good number of bulls in there, and with any other area, just get on one and find him!! They are vocal up there, but get close, because there are quite a few road hunters up there as well. I have some friends that also drew spike tags and were clling in many nice 5X5 and small 6's, but also an ocassional 320+ 6X6!!