No, I'm not wrong on revenue...if I am prove it. You wont and cant.
I've already said there would be some revenue loss for deer, sheep, moose, goat...elk and pronghorn no.
I am very confident you are wrong on pronghorn. I will take another shot as you didn't like my first one
You are making a lot of assumptions which I don't think are correct. You are assuming there is a limited number of residents pronghorn hunters and if they drew their first choice versus drawing their 2nd or 3rd choice that for their 2nd or 3rd choice they would have previously drawn would now go to a non-resident.
The reason I feel this is False is that some don't choose a 2nd or 3rd choice, so they are not even eligible to relinquish their 2nd or 3rd choice tag to a non-resident if they gobble up one of the new 10% tags.
The Total Quota for Any Antelope Type 1 or 2 tags for Residents was 28,526 in 2019.
Residents who had a 1st choice = 38,320
Residents who had a 2nd choice = 20,941
Residents who had a 3rd choice = 11,851
You are likely to say, well half had a 2nd choice and a third had a 3rd choice so those would be relinquished, but the question is what were those choices and could they have actually gotten that choice or not?
So what I did, was I eliminated all the 2nd and 3rd choices from units that were not 100% draw, meaning you could only draw with your 1st choice. Doing that, things change significantly. Only 3,653 residents have a 2nd choice they could possibly draw and only 1,675 have a 3rd choice they could possibly draw. That means that only 13.9% of the 1st choice applicants could even possibly trade their low demand tags for high demand tags.
Based on that, I think one can assume that what happens in the lesser desired units with no public access east of I-25 are not that significant in our discussions (some trading may occur, but it is limited). Both residents and non-residents take those tags, but it is not really a trading that will occur. The majority of the same residents that want them on their 1st or 2nd or 3rd choice will likely take them again (as their odds on their first choice don't change significantly by reducing non-res by 10% and moving the available tags from 80 to 90%) and the non-res will take what is leftover in those units as a 1st choice or 2nd choice or in the leftover draw if they have access to private or a trespass hunt or are hunting with an outfitter.
I think the very low number on what is going to happen if you go to 90/10 is to look at non-residents losing 10% of the tags in units that residents are not 100% successful in the draw in (the higher demand units).
In this scenario, there are 1731 tags that will likely flip from non-res to res. At a 60/40 split and value of $326/$614 (Reg. vs. Special) that is $763,662. Once again, I think that is the very low end and is close to my $1 - $5 million estimate before based on antelope licenses going to a 90/10 split. I still think the number will shake out closer to the $2+ million range for antelope alone as in some of those tweener units the new 10% will go to residents on their 2nd choice.
I don't think anyone can say what will happen for sure, but I can't believe you are saying there will be no revenue change for antelope. That is just absurd to me. Just say what it is and how you can raise the money to pay for the change. Maybe it isn't a big deal and Wyoming has plenty of money and can just raise non-resident tag fees more to make up the difference.