Recent content by SanJuan

Math isn't your thing, and that's okay. Just stop trying to convince the world that you are some sort of statistician when you can't even do grade school-level division.

My guess is that the line isn't steeper because high point holders tend to apply for the better tags that have worse draw odds.

My son drew 56 first rifle antelope. My 17-year drought continues.

I'm aware of why the odds are better for some hunts. Most don't want to tie into a low-success rate hunt. For the archery tag I had in 2010, the next 25 tags went unfilled over a 13-year period. I, for one, would rather take my chances on the mountain than in the draw.

Maybe the weighted points don't matter. I'm not arguing that because it's beside the point. Even a random draw still has odds. You're just avoiding answering the question because there is no way to calculate the odds in a way that supports your statement that my odds are greatly inflated...

I'll ask again: How should the odds be calculated? If we are incorrect, show us how it's done. What were the odds of drawing S39 archery last year? Be specific and show your work like the people you are arguing with.

Yes, no one knows what the odds for this year will be because it hasn't happened yet. Thanks for pointing out that no one can predict the future. While weighted points don't have a huge effect, 3+0 and 3+9 are not exactly the same. Even if they were, your original assertion of greatly...

The odds on my first post are from Gohunt. While they may not be perfect, they are not greatly inflated as you suggest. The simple odds are: Sheep 49 apps for 4 tags = 8.2% Moose 453 apps for 15 tags = 3.3% Goat 363 apps for 14 tags = 3.8% These are apps with three preference points. I don't...

Hybrid Muzz Elk w/6 points, 1.5% odds Archery Deer w/2 points, 16% odds, 2nd choice muzz with 7% odds Rifle Antelope w/4 points, 0% odds unless the quota change gets me in Archery Ram Rut Hunt w/3 weighted, 5% odds Bull Moose w/9 weighted, 4.4% odds Archery Goat w/8 weighted, 6.3% odds You've...

How does a high game population change the fact that Colorado treats NRs much better than any other Western state? No one is begging you for ****, but you do need to realize that this fight is much bigger than CO. These are the same organizations currently operating in other western states...