Have you ever drawn a random tag?

Have you ever drawn a random tag?

  • Yes

  • No

Results are only viewable after voting.
S

schoolhousegrizz

Very Active Member
Messages
2,577
Have you ever drawn a random tag? Select your choice in the poll above. Never in my life have I drawn a tag unless I was in the max points pool. I'm hoping my luck changes this year.
 
Only once. LE archery elk in UT. Had 2 points, max was 6 or maybe it was 7. Funny thing is, the draw history for that tag had a pattern where 2 points pulled more tags consistently outside of the max. Just had a hunch if I was going to pull it without max it was going to be that year.

My wife did once as well. She was the lucky recipient of a returned tag.

I've been on the flip side as well. Had max but due to tag cuts the bonus tag was no longer. I did not draw.
 
A whole bunch!
Everything in Nevada is basically random.
Nev. Desert Bighorn
Nev. Mule Deer (a few times)
Nev. Elk (this year)
CO - Mtn Goat
ID - Moose (my daughter’s)
UT - Rocky Bighorn
UT - San Juan Bull Elk (late)
NM - Oryx
WY - Antelope unit 92-1 (friend)
MT - Moose

Some hunts are still random with max points. Just less applicants.
WY - Mule deer (unit 128)
WY - Moose
Miscellaneous others

Always the covenant California A and B zones. ???
 
Last edited:
AZ late archery elk
AZ late rifle elk
AZ archery pronghorn
MT archery elk
NM 16D 3rd archery elk
CO archery rocky
NV archery deer

It sounds like I'm luckier than I am. Only the NM tag was less than 1% odds. I've been applying in 6-9 states for 19 years and I always look for better odds when applying. I didn't draw MT general this year with zero points when it was 74% odds last year.
 
Wyoming deer unit 118 1996
Paunsaugunt muzzleloader deer 1998
Wyoming antelope 1991,1992 and 1993
Wyoming deer region G 1993
 
What do you consider random. I don’t think all randoms are created equally. I would say that all NV tags are random. In states with points, that have the option of drawing a random tag is what we are talking about here. If you have enough points that’s not random, that’s earned ID and NM I would consider random. I think the best question would be how many tags have you drawn with less than a 5 percent chance.
 
yes for montana elk and fishing and twice now for wyoming gen elk. never a proper LE tag

Cheers, Pete
 
lostinOregon said:
What do you consider random. I don’t think all randoms are created equally. I would say that all NV tags are random. In states with points, that have the option of drawing a random tag is what we are talking about here. If you have enough points that’s not random, that’s earned ID and NM I would consider random. I think the best question would be how many tags have you drawn with less than a 5 percent chance.
Click to expand...
Anything not guaranteed whether it's 1% or 99%.
 
schoolhousegrizz said:
Okay it's getting ridiculous now. I thought it was going to be around 50/50. I had no idea how unlucky I really am.
Click to expand...
Honestly, I would expect the ratio siding in favor of drawing random tags.

If a tag, let's say takes 10 points, you have 10 years of trying for that random tag vs 1 year for the max. Each year you've added new random winners to your survey results. Those winners also move on to try their luck at a different tag.

If you're looking at the % of one's individual tags drawn, max vs random, you would get different results. In other words, I've drawn 2 UT elk tags. One was done with max points and the other at random. I skew your results, but as a whole my individual results are 50/50.

I'm sure there's a better way explaining that. You only have to get lucky once!
 
Here in Utah, for those who hunt in my family, we drew 4 LE deer tags, all with a guaranteed # of BPs... then last year I drew a random tag. So, its 80% max points so far for my family.
 
Nevada non resident Archery Elk with 12 points in 2021. Nevada non resident muzzleloader antelope last year. Wyoming Region G deer tags twice in the mid 90s.New Mexico Archery Elk 2 years in a row in the late 90's. A few Turkey tags in Utah
 
MT- elk twice
MT - antelope twice
ID- moose
ID- MT goat
ID-elk prolly like 20-30 times
ID- deer likely over 50 times (kids included)
WY- antelope 3 times
IMO all tags should be random. Waiting times after a draw is fine, but points suck. Yes i have points in a few states.
 
marley said:
UT: Henry’s deer (1 point)
Henry’s bison (14 points)
Willard peak Mt. Goat (2 points)
Boulder elk (13 points)
Antelope (9 points, turned back in)

CO: moose (14 points)
sheep (14 points)

NV: 111-115 elk (14 points)

NM: Valle Vidal elk
23 Coues

14 is my lucky number!
Click to expand...
Geez
 
I drew quite a few 1996 to 2013. Then everything changed. Despite ~40 applications over 8 states/year I drew zero until this year a NM 27% odds opportunity hunt. Not a trophy hunt. So that was a ten year drought. Over that time the odds said I should have drawn 5-6 tags. Didn’t happen. Best pre-2013 was a 1% NH moose tag where I scored big. Others NV elk at 6%, VV NM 15%, UT Book Cliffs like 4%. Quite a few others before social media changed it all. At some point I expect to hit on some in the 1%-20% range again but hasn’t happened in a decade.

Thank god for the preference systems though. Because of them I’ve hunted every year during my random drought. Have five more in the next five years then that will be over.
 
Last edited:
Sure, lots of them.

AZ:
1 rifle bull elk tag
2 coues deer late hunts
1 desert sheep.

MT:
Mountain goat
Shiras moose
2 rifle breaks elk
Maybe 20 pronghorn tags
1 great deer permit
15-20 cow permits

NM:
Oryx
Pronghorn

AK:
Muskox

WY:
4 LQ bull elk
1 shiras moose
50-60 pronghorn tags
Around a dozen LQ deer

I've also drawn maybe 15-20 tags with points in some states.
 
schoolhousegrizz said:
Okay it's getting ridiculous now. I thought it was going to be around 50/50. I had no idea how unlucky I really am.
Click to expand...
If it makes you feel better grizz, I've never drawn a random tag either and I apply in lots of states. It's one of the reasons I never gamble in Vegas and I have never bought a lotto ticket.
Some are just born lucky and others, like us, just have to wait in line for everything!
 
Last edited:
littlebighorn said:
If it makes you feel better grizz, I've never drawn a random tag either and I apply in lots of states. It's one of the reasons I never gamble in Vegas and I have never bought a lotto ticket.
Some are just born lucky and others, like us, just have to wait in line for everything!
Click to expand...
I keep my luck for the hunting gods!!! ???
 
marley said:
UT: Henry’s deer (1 point)
Henry’s bison (14 points)
Willard peak Mt. Goat (2 points)
Boulder elk (13 points)
Antelope (9 points, turned back in)

CO: moose (14 points)
sheep (14 points)

NV: 111-115 elk (14 points)

NM: Valle Vidal elk
23 Coues

14 is my lucky number!
Click to expand...

How'd you do in Valle Vidal? I went in 2017.
 
marley said:
UT: Henry’s deer (1 point)
Henry’s bison (14 points)
Willard peak Mt. Goat (2 points)
Boulder elk (13 points)
Antelope (9 points, turned back in)

CO: moose (14 points)
sheep (14 points)

NV: 111-115 elk (14 points)

NM: Valle Vidal elk
23 Coues

14 is my lucky number!
Click to expand...
I knew you would be the winner of this contest!
 
Does a returned tag count? I got a call for a returned Coues tag in AZ a few years back and wasn’t close to the max point pool. Other than that, no luck. My wife holds the luck, her first big game tag was a cow moose tag in Utah. Drew with 0. The next year she pulled a rifle antelope tag with 1 pt.
 
Many of the supposed “random” tags mentioned above aren’t truly random tags like ID & NM.

They are weighted random (simple bonus tags).

Many of us casually use the word random to refer to the non-preference side of state draws like AZ & UT. But those tags aren’t truly 100% random. They are simple bonus.
 
Crampy said:
Many of the supposed “random” tags mentioned above aren’t truly random tags like ID & NM.

They are weighted random (simple bonus tags).

Many of us casually use the word random to refer to the non-preference side of state draws like AZ & UT. But those tags aren’t truly 100% random. They are simple bonus.
Click to expand...
That’s right. But in the decade long drought I was in I did not draw in any weighted (bonus) point draws. Strictly and only in those lotteries where I was in the top point pool basically 100% preference based. Latest example my NR Wyoming general elk tag this year with 5.33. Hope that’s over now but big asterisk next to it as the random I did draw is just a NM opportunity hunt. I don’t consider that really breaking the drought.
 
Crampy said:
Many of the supposed “random” tags mentioned above aren’t truly random tags like ID & NM.

They are weighted random (simple bonus tags).

Many of us casually use the word random to refer to the non-preference side of state draws like AZ & UT. But those tags aren’t truly 100% random. They are simple bonus.
Click to expand...

Sort of. UT is a smiple bonus when only one person has max points for the bonus portion of tags. If there are more max points holders than tags available, it goes to random, although that "randomness" is typically at least a 25% chance you'll pull the tag.

The remaining tag(s) is(are) random.
 
I’ve been really fortunate in random draws but also put in for well over 100 tags a year

AZ
Archery antelope (2x)
Bison
Archery elk 2x
Muzzy elk
Late rifle elk
Desert sheep

NM
Oryx
Ibex muzzy
Barbary
Rifle antelope
muzzy elk
archery elk

UT
LE muzzy deer
Mtn goat

NV
PIW deer

CO
Rocky sheep

ID
Shiras moose

MT
Shiras moose
Mtn goat
Breaks rifle elk (2x)
Breaks archery elk

WY
bison
Red desert antelope

AK
Emperor goose
 
Yes. Many times. Including deer, elk and Arizona rifle pronghorn in 2010, 2016 and 2019. Also Utah pronghorn with 0 points.
 
A couple of very good tags with long odds.

AZ - 2 Antelope tags in 5 years (1 as a resident and 1 as non-resident.- Can't remember the odds but it was greater than 100 to 1 for each tag.
CO - 2007 Bighorn tag with just a couple of weighted points (2 tags issued for 300 applicants)
2023 Bighorn tag with 7 or 8 weighted points(3 tags issued for 250+ applicants)
WYO - Elk 2008 with max NR points a buddy and I drew the 2 of the 3 NR tags applying on a group application. Thank goodness, as today the max holders are still trying to draw this tag.

I will draw a highly coveted AZ Bull Tag early rifle in the next couple of years and then I done applying for any out of state tag unless it is a true lottery.

I consider any CO sheep/goat/moose tag an accomplishment and now understand the weighted point system and the real luck involved if you are applying for tag with only a few tags issued.
 
Guessing 60 to 70 of them? Most of them not very notable. I did draw a random moose tag when I was 15 years old- the first year I ever applied for moose in 1990.
 
schoolhousegrizz said:
Have you ever drawn a random tag? Select your choice in the poll above. Never in my life have I drawn a tag unless I was in the max points pool. I'm hoping my luck changes this year.
Click to expand...
OP, You probably should have specified the date ranges for this question. Because the number of folks drawing true random tags 1990-1999, 2000-2009, 2010-2019 compared to 2020-2023 would be sobering and interesting to hear. Everyone got'em back in the 90's. Today you're talking about an endangered species.
 
Zim said:
OP, You probably should have specified the date ranges for this question. Because the number of folks drawing true random tags 1990-1999, 2000-2009, 2010-2019 compared to 2020-2023 would be sobering and interesting to hear. Everyone got'em back in the 90's. Today you're talking about an endangered species.
Click to expand...
Those are great points. I doubt that very few people were dedicated to out of state draws back then (maybe I am wrong). We did apply for Idaho deer at times, and back in the 80's-90's we always drew the tag. I shake my head knowing that I had some great opportunities back then. In Utah, you could apply for every species (I never did).
 
Last edited:
The number of people drawing "random" tags stays pretty much a constant. As long as states are not dramatically changing their draw algorithms nor their allocations. What HAS changed, and very dramatically, is the volume of applicants, meaning an individual's own odds of getting one of those "random" tags has plummeted almost universally.
 
sticksender said:
The number of people drawing "random" tags stays pretty much a constant. As long as states are not dramatically changing their draw algorithms nor their allocations. What HAS changed, and very dramatically, is the volume of applicants, meaning an individual's own odds of getting one of those "random" tags has plummeted almost universally.
Click to expand...

But when states begin to charge full fees upfront those "odds" should improve again, right?
 
woodruffhunter said:
Those are great points. I doubt that very few people were dedicated to out of state draws back then (maybe I am wrong). We did apply for Idaho deer at times, and back in the 80's-90's we always drew the tag. I shake my head know that I had some great opportunities back then. In Utah, you could apply for every species (I never did).
Click to expand...
I dove in pretty hard in 1996 same time as Randy. Luckily recognized right away the opportunities were too good to be true, and that I should take advantage of everything while I could. Back then low tier NM elk tags were near automatic and I drew 7 of my first 7 tries before outfitter welfare ended it all. Drew great random tags in some other state every year. It was like a candy store compared to today’s 0-fer-a-decade. No regrets for me though. Got more than my share of great adventures, plus preference points to reserve some trophy hunts during these current hard times. I was at my best fitness level back in those early days as well.
 
Last edited:
I started putting in out of state in 1976. Started putting in for sheep, moose & goat in Montana. Shortly after Wyoming moose, antelope and deer. Buy the early 80’s was hunting elk & deer in Montana two out of three years. Would take the whole month of September off. One year I killed a moose & antelope in Wyoming & a 6x7 bull in Idaho & a 6x7 bull in Montana, with my bow in 10 days. Hunted G in Wyoming few times before it split and after. Things were different back then you had great hunting in your own state. Arizona elk was over the counter and New Mexico was like Zim said pretty much a give me. There was only so much time in September to hunt so I never made it to Arizona & New Mexico. Buy early 80’s was putting for sheep & goat in most states also Nevada for everything. The start of Huntin Fool changed everything in my opinion. Then game numbers started to drop. It’s been one thing after another with not much change to favor the animals for decades. So we got what we have now, not much!
 
Arizona
Antelope archery unit 10 two times
Lots of Javelina & deer archery January

Colorado
Sheep
Goat
Antelope
Deer unit 2 archery twice

Idaho
Elk Super tag
Antelope Super tag
Moose twice
Rocky Sheep
Goat
Antelope several
Elk 54 archery
Deer a few
Bear several

Iowa
Deer several

Kansas
Deer several

Montana
Sheep
Elk lots
Deer lots

Nevada
Desert Sheep 263
California Sheep
Elk archery 111-115
Antelope archery 033
Deer a few

Utah
Deer
Bear

Wyoming
Moose three times
Elk a lot
Deer a lot
Antelope a lot
 
Last edited:
Geez Iddogguy, I thought I was lucky!!

I got in early also.

Arizona
Mule Deer 13B Strip Tag
Elk Early Rifle 22
Elk Early Archery 27,8,7W,5BS,1

Utah
Mule Deer Rifle Henry Mountain
Elk Early Rifle Southwest Desert

Colorado
Elk Archery 201
Deer Eastern Plains Late

Montana
Elk 410 Rifle Tag
Elk Gardiner Late Hunt - before the wolves
Elk Super Tag
Sheep 482 Breaks Ram

Wyoming
Moose Bull
Elk Unit 7 twice.

NM
Elk Archery 16A
Elk Rifle 16C
 
I didn't used to have any luck. I seemed to make donations every year without any results. But the last few years have been pretty good to me:

AZ archery elk - 2018
CA roosevelt elk SHARE tag - 2020
NM elk - 2022
NM Elk - 2023
NV Desert Bighorn ram - 2023
 
I started western hunting in 2021, since then:
2021:
-Wyoming general Elk
-Utah general season Deer
2022:
-NV archery Deer
-NV rifle Pronghorn
-NV early rifle Elk
-Montana LE archery Elk
-Montana general Deer
Still waiting on Colorado and Utah, 2023:
-NM rifle Pronghorn
 
Aerosith said:
I started western hunting in 2021, since then:
2021:
-Wyoming general Elk
-Utah general season Deer
2022:
-NV archery Deer
-NV rifle Pronghorn
-NV early rifle Elk
-Montana LE archery Elk
-Montana general Deer
Still waiting on Colorado and Utah, 2023:
-NM rifle Pronghorn
Click to expand...
? Be prepared for your luck to change in a big way going forward. Most likely starting this year. ? There’s five on there where you majorly defied the odds R or NR. Unless maaaaaybe you are tappin into outfitter welfare tags.
 
Zim said:
? Be prepared for your luck to change in a big way going forward. Most likely starting this year. ? There’s five on there where you majorly defied the odds R or NR. Unless maaaaaybe you are tappin into outfitter welfare tags.
Click to expand...
It's all about strategy, I spend countless hours reading state regulations and draw odds. Making predictions based off of patterns, I could have drew several Limited Draw tags this year in other states if I put in, but I don't have the time this year. 2 of those Nevada tags were FCFS, since they changed it i'm done with Nevada for now. I doubt my luck will change lol, It's not all luck.
 
Aerosith said:
It's all about strategy, I spend countless hours reading state regulations and draw odds. Making predictions based off of patterns, I could have drew several Limited Draw tags this year in other states if I put in, but I don't have the time this year. 2 of those Nevada tags were FCFS, since they changed it i'm done with Nevada for now. I doubt my luck will change lol, It's not all luck.
Click to expand...
What is this some kinda joke? The odds of pulling just the WY gen tag alone was 7.9%. That’s a 92.1% failure rate. I have not drawn a tag with those low odds (much less 2%) for ten+ years despite 40+ applications/year. The absolute best odds for the worst NM rifle pronghorn tag is 2%. Yet somehow you attribute your success to some sort of genius mathematical skills & pattern predictions? And not luck? What’s going on here? ?

I’m going to bet your luck already ran out of repeating either of those tags this year, despite your tea leaves or mathematical wizardry. ?
 
About every other year I have gotten lucky and drawn a random tag:
2 - Wyoming: 2009 - Moose, 2004 - Elk
4 - Colorado: 2007 - Moose, 2005 and 2016 Goat, 2022 - Sheep
1 - Arizona: 2011 - Antelope
4 - New Mexico: 2003 - Antelope, 2013 - VV Elk, unit 36 Elk twice 2019 and 2023

Apply in Utah - but no luck in random. Hope to draw an elk tag this year with points, AZ elk with points next year or two.
 
Aerosith said:
It's all about strategy, I spend countless hours reading state regulations and draw odds. Making predictions based off of patterns, I could have drew several Limited Draw tags this year in other states if I put in, but I don't have the time this year. 2 of those Nevada tags were FCFS, since they changed it i'm done with Nevada for now. I doubt my luck will change lol, It's not all luck.
Click to expand...
The only way around these is outfitter welfare tags where you are buying at least a minimum service. I’ve done that several times in NM in those last ten years for drop camp services, getting me as high as 35% draw odds, yet still never drew. There is no other way, system, mathematics, pattern prediction, etc, etc, etc around this fact. Just plain luck. I’m not buyin whatever the hell you are sellin. What is your purpose blowing smoke up people’s arses?

Me thinks you just spend countless hours reading about outfitter welfare programs. ?
 
Last edited:
I bet if he does draw a tag he won’t set in a hotel room for 2 weeks then waste the meat when he gets lucky.
Just saying Zim you have no right to hammer anyone on this site!!?
Nuff said!!!
 
coloradoman said:
I bet if he does draw a tag he won’t set in a hotel room for 2 weeks then waste the meat when he gets lucky.
Just saying Zim you have no right to hammer anyone on this site!!?
Nuff said!!!
Click to expand...
someotherstateboy, You still wearin your delta gamma phi Izod shirt with turned up collar and flat brimmed hat along with your queer boy buddies? You know the moderator PMed me wanting to take your preppie frat boy thread hijack down. But I told him no need, if it helped even one fellow hunter on his CO 61 hunt it was well worth it to me. I didn’t give a sheet about you nor your loser snooty friends. Likely none of which are even from Colorado because when I was there last fall the first ten parties I met I inquired about and found a grand total of none of them were from Colorado originally! ? Just shipped one of my LW tree stands to an Arizona hunter here who drew a unit 1 archery tag too. Because it’s his first elk hunt and I wanted him to have a plan B. Glad to hear you have never been knocked on your ass by illness in your life, much less during an OIL hunt. I have more family living in Colorado than you and your circle jerkers combined. What a queer boy.
 
Zim said:
You still wearin your delta gamma phi Izod shirt with turned up collar and flat brimmed hat along with your queer boy buddies? You know the moderator PMed me wanting to take your preppie frat boy thread hijack down. But I told him no need, if it helped even one fellow hunter on his CO 61 hunt it was well worth it to me. I didn’t give a sheet about you nor your loser snooty friends. Likely none of which are even from Colorado because when I was there last fall the first ten parties I met I inquired about and found a grand total of none of them were from Colorado originally! ? Just shipped one of my LW tree stands to an Arizona hunter here who drew a unit 1 archery tag too. Because it’s his first elk hunt and I wanted him to have a plan B. Glad to hear you have never been knocked on your ass by illness in your life, much less during an OIL hunt. What a queer boy.
Click to expand...
Lmmfao what a P.O…never mind you’re a waste of anyone’s time.
Continue on with your drivel and excuses
Hahahaha!!!!!
 
I thought we were grown adults, let's be respectful to one another!

If you are going to message someone something negative make it a PM.
 
coloradoman said:
Lmmfao what a P.O…never mind you’re a waste of anyone’s time.
Continue on with your drivel and excuses
Hahahaha!!!!!
Click to expand...
I think it’s pretty pathetic people like you get jealous strictly because a DIY hunter from Indiana has taken more 320” - 350” bulls than you & your frat boy buddies combined, much less all solo with a bow - Pope & Young. So my standards are high. So what? Deal with it. Not bragging. It’s just a fact. It’s not my fault Colorado manages for opportunity. I enjoy the challenge & working hard. I was fully healthy during all the archery hunts below, all of them fell within my sight, and I field dressed all of them very efficiently. Along with many other P&Y bulls. Take out your frustration somewhere else.

IMG_8654.jpeg


IMG_8655.jpeg


IMG_8664.jpeg


IMG_0133.jpeg


IMG_8666.jpeg


IMG_8656.jpeg


IMG_8657.jpeg
 
Last edited:
I drew a Colorado deer tag about 10 years ago with about 40% odds in my point pool. I drew a Utah LE elk tag in 2016 that was 66% odds in my point pool (1 point below the guaranteed tags in both cases). Other than that, no random tags in 8 different states. I have also failed to draw a deer tag that had 80% draw odds.
 
Never had that luck, co worker of mine snagged one of the 61 hybrid draw tags last year and killed a dandy. Another buddy has pulled 2 big horn tags… I need to start putting in for the big 3, but life keeps getting in my way haha
 
twice both bear tags, and woulda been guaranteed the following year. Keepin my fingers crossed though!!!
 
Iddogguy said:
Arizona
Antelope archery unit 10 two times
Lots of Javelina & deer archery January

Colorado
Sheep
Goat
Antelope
Deer unit 2 archery twice

Idaho
Elk Super tag
Antelope Super tag
Moose twice
Rocky Sheep
Goat
Antelope several
Elk 54 archery
Deer a few
Bear several

Iowa
Deer several

Kansas
Deer several

Montana
Sheep
Elk lots
Deer lots

Nevada
Desert Sheep 263
California Sheep
Elk archery 111-115
Antelope archery 033
Deer a few

Utah
Deer
Bear

Wyoming
Moose three times
Elk a lot
Deer a lot
Antelope a lot
Click to expand...
Just added San Juan Early Archery Elk to the list. Yea Baby!!!!
 

Similar threads

U
AZ. ELK UNIT 22 ARCHERY
Replies
9
Views
755
yotebuster17
yotebuster17
Rabbitslayer78
Cache Rich Antelope 2024 WHCE tag
Replies
14
Views
704
elkassassin
elkassassin
callsalot
Need help with a very good problem to have
Replies
10
Views
401
callsalot
callsalot

Click-a-Pic ... Details & Bigger Photos

Member Gallery Photos and Videos!

IMG_7932 (2).JPG
4E7A2B65-0984-454E-AD69-30C026AD81CC.jpeg
MFDC0238.JPG
IMG_0632 (2).jpg
IMG_1905.jpg
IMG_0689.jpeg
IMG_8773.jpeg
Lee's Trophy Archery Buck
image000000(3).jpg
2001 Buck.jpg
D70A96FB-93C8-48D3-9CBB-601E01AED8B3.jpeg
utah buck 88.jpg
Back
Top Bottom