1,067 deaths, 74k cases

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OK, so we'll toss out cases since that number doesn't tell the story all that well. But deaths continue to increase at quite a high rate. Saturday there were 260 deaths and yesterday there were 712. Now 1,067. And by the time I finish typing this, there'll probably be more.

I think many of us agree that we'll get a handle on all this, but when and what will be the answer? Will social distancing help us get control of this? Other than that, what are we doing to get a handle on it? Is the social distancing going to work? Here where I live, I'm not around others who could have it, but in cities, apartment buildings, etc. the population densities are crazy and can social distancing work in those areas?

I will admit, because we have a pretty darn good healthcare system in our country, I think we can keep death rates below that of other places.
 
I brushed through it quickly. What I got was what the title says, that it may be over sooner than many think. Who's the many and what do they think? I don't know. I'm not convinced that it'll ever be "over" completely. But I do think it'll be something of much less concern in a few months.
I didn't catch in that article what kind of death numbers they're predicting.

My primary question to all is, if you think death rates are going to begin dropping........when? and why? Something will have to cause it to slow.

Like I said, as far as I see, social distancing is all we've got going for us right now. So will that alone slow the death rate from doubling every 2.5 days? I don't know.

At the double every 2.5 days that's been holding true for a few weeks, we'll reach 2k deaths by Sunday. 4k by next Wed. We've been social distancing for about 10 days, but cases continue to increase at a high rate, as well as the deaths. People who are getting the virus over the last few days almost definitely contracted it while social distancing was in force.

???????????
 
The title wasn't saying that many people think it will be over quickly...it was saying it (corona) may be over faster than many think.

He didn't predict death numbers in the US but he did in China:

"In a report published on February 1, Levitt predicted with remarkable accuracy how China’s cases would end up, saying that around 80,000 would contract the disease and among those around 3,250 would die. Mozingo notes that as of March 16, China, which has nearly 1.4 billion people, reported a total of just 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths related to the virus and the number of new cases has slowed down to around 25 per day.

Levitt says that after studying data from 78 countries, he sees a similar pattern. As occurred in China in February, the rate of case increases will begin to decline, signaling the downside of a spread curve. “What we need is to control the panic,” Levitt told the paper."

Kind of crazy he predicted those numbers a month and half before they happened. For now I think the best thing to do is continue to follow the CDC's recommendation's of social distancing to slow the curve so we don't overwhelm the healthcare system, not panic, and realize that we're going to make it through this.

"[T]here are years when flu is raging, like in the U.S. in 2017, when there were three times the regular number of mortalities,” said Levitt. “And still, we did not panic. That is my message: you need to think of corona like a severe flu. It is four to eight times as strong as a common flu, and yet, most people will remain healthy and humanity will survive.”

Lots of good things are in the works...we are gathering the resources of the private sector to shore up our domestic production and distribution of medical supplies, testing kits and hydroxychloroquine--the anti-malarial drug that is a promising medicine to help cure the virus.
 
The title wasn't saying that many people think it will be over quickly...it was saying it (corona) may be over faster than many think.

He didn't predict death numbers in the US but he did in China:

"In a report published on February 1, Levitt predicted with remarkable accuracy how China’s cases would end up, saying that around 80,000 would contract the disease and among those around 3,250 would die. Mozingo notes that as of March 16, China, which has nearly 1.4 billion people, reported a total of just 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths related to the virus and the number of new cases has slowed down to around 25 per day.

Levitt says that after studying data from 78 countries, he sees a similar pattern. As occurred in China in February, the rate of case increases will begin to decline, signaling the downside of a spread curve. “What we need is to control the panic,” Levitt told the paper."

Kind of crazy he predicted those numbers a month and half before they happened. For now I think the best thing to do is continue to follow the CDC's recommendation's of social distancing to slow the curve so we don't overwhelm the healthcare system, not panic, and realize that we're going to make it through this.

"[T]here are years when flu is raging, like in the U.S. in 2017, when there were three times the regular number of mortalities,” said Levitt. “And still, we did not panic. That is my message: you need to think of corona like a severe flu. It is four to eight times as strong as a common flu, and yet, most people will remain healthy and humanity will survive.”

Lots of good things are in the works...we are gathering the resources of the private sector to shore up our domestic production and distribution of medical supplies, testing kits and hydroxychloroquine--the anti-malarial drug that is a promising medicine to help cure the virus.
What would be interesting is to see what numbers he would predict if China had not put strict quarantines, much more strict than here, on all of its affected areas for the past 2 months.
 
What would be interesting is to see what numbers he would predict if China had not put strict quarantines, much more strict than here, on all of its affected areas for the past 2 months.
Hmmmm, good point. China I think went to greater lengths to force social distancing than what we are. That could play into it all.
 
What would be interesting is to see what numbers he would predict if China had not put strict quarantines, much more strict than here, on all of its affected areas for the past 2 months.

I also wonder if our lack of population here--329 million--compared to China's 1.4 Billion would make it more of an apples to apples comparison as far as quarantines go if that makes sense.
 
I also wonder if our lack of population here--329 million--compared to China's 1.4 Billion would make it more of an apples to apples comparison as far as quarantines go if that makes sense.
Agreed. My point was just that his numbers reflect what happened after a lock down. Its scary how high those numbers might have gone had they taken no action. I guess we'll never know.
 
To compare past years flu numbers to covid 19 numbers isn't accurate. We don't quarantine and lock down for the flu. To make a fair comparison We would need to go through an entire season with covid 19 while still going to sporting events and school and church and whatever just living normal life and taking no precautions and then see what those covid numbers would be compared to a full flu season.
Covid only started ramping up here 2 weeks ago. The flu season started last fall and has been going 6 months.
 
That is current #s the flu season is still ravaging the population.
If you think coronavirus has only been here a short time you need to loosen your tin foil hat.

Do you really want a fair comparison to flu?
 
That is current #s the flu season is still ravaging the population.
If you think coronavirus has only been here a short time you need to loosen your tin foil hat.

Do you really want a fair comparison to flu?

Look at the graph in the link you posted. The flu season is basically over. That 23,000 flu deaths number isn't getting much bigger this year.
The first person to die from covid in the US was only 26 days ago and it was only 9 days ago that we hit 100 deaths. That's when it really took off. These numbers are from the John Hopkins web page. These are the numbers all the top medical professionals are using and I'll believe the professionals numbers over the internet conspiracy theory crowd that claim it was all over the country back in Nov. or Dec.
There is no doubt a few people had it quite a while before that first death, but it had to be a very small number or the hospitalization and death numbers would have taken off much earlier.
The number of deaths have doubled 3 1/2 times in the past 9 days to hit 1,293 right now. At that same rate it will double 4 more times in just over 10 days and that will put the death toll over 20,000. Then if it doubled 6 more times (which would be 18 more days) it would hit 1.3 million.
There is no reason to believe those numbers wouldn't continue to shoot up at that same rate if we had kept living like we were 3 weeks ago.
Fortunately we have taken major actions the past couple of weeks which should start curbing the exponential rise we are in now.

And of course I don't want to see a fair comparison to the flu and we never will because we have taken major action. If we did nothing different than we do every year to protect ourselves from the flu, then covid deaths would end up in the millions pretty quick.

We have vaccines for flu and we also have a natural partial immunity to most flu viruses because flu viruses have been around for many years in similar but slightly different forms. That keeps the flu from getting too out of control most years. This type of corona virus is new and nobody is going to have any immunity to it until they have been sick and recovered or until a vaccine is developed.

This isn't my opinion. It is science and math.
 
In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.

The population of the US was about 170 million in 1957.
 
How many of you had or knew of someone that was sick last Nov, Dec, Jan or Feb with these same symptoms..and lasted 10-14 days? Was it the COVID virus? It was labeled a sever upper respiratory illness. Would it be a coincidence? I know quite a few of them that had those symptoms...people my age of 48. They all made it. Its hard to say this is over blown. I feel we're doing the right thing but I don't think everyone is grasping that if you are in good health, it'll get in and get out without much disruption to our lives. I agree with treed....its been here longer than we think. Just my 2 cents...
 
How many of you had or knew of someone that was sick last Nov, Dec, Jan or Feb with these same symptoms..and lasted 10-14 days? Was it the COVID virus? It was labeled a sever upper respiratory illness. Would it be a coincidence? I know quite a few of them that had those symptoms...people my age of 48. They all made it. Its hard to say this is over blown. I feel we're doing the right thing but I don't think everyone is grasping that if you are in good health, it'll get in and get out without much disruption to our lives. I agree with treed....its been here longer than we think. Just my 2 cents...
I disagree.if it were here in Nov and Dec, people would’ve been dying. The virus wouldn’t have just recently become deadly. People just want to think they had to prove some idea they have. That’s my opinion.
 
"I disagree.if it were here in Nov and Dec, people would’ve been dying. The virus wouldn’t have just recently become deadly. People just want to think they had to prove some idea they have. That’s my opinion. "

I am not saying that I agree with the idea that this virus was here in the US long before anyone thought. I will tell you though people were dying in Nov and Dec. It just wasn't plastered all over the news 24/7.
 
Just from a traveling aspect in this world. Do you really think it took 2 months from this virus to come to the US when a flight from China to US is 8-10 hrs or how ever long a flight is depending where to fly to and from. Just take a second to think about that small fact. Millions of people flying daily if this virus is as contagious as they are saying why would it take months instead of days or weeks to spread in the US let alone the world.

Either way it is here and we all need to do what we can to help who we can and protect those with the high risk underlying conditions. This isn't a matter of the US VS. China any more. This is the ENTIRE PLANET. We as humans are very very smart and right now is when we ALL need to use COMMON SENSE wash your hands, don't touch your face, cover sneezes and coughs, and IF you don't have to go to town or anything such as that stay home and we all can get through this.
 
According to World Health Organization

Nov. 17 - Some think earliest possible case happened Hubei Province
Dec. 20 - Around 60 known cases China
Dec. 31 - 166 cases and first reported to World Health Organization
Jan. 11 - 1st death China
Jan. 22 - 571 reported cases China
Feb. 1 - 1,438 China
Feb. 12 - 58,761 China

Jan. 21 - 1st US case announced in Washington State
Feb. 15 - 12 confirmed cases United States
Feb. 29 - 1st US death
Mar. 1 - 75 US cases
Mar. 15 - 3,613 US cases
Mar. 28 - 104,205

Would have been pretty hard to get here 2 months earlier than Feb. 15th.
 
Not if it was here before we were to test for it. Cases seem to be piling up possibly only because we are testing thousands for it. Who knows how many people who could have had it and not shown symptoms or even didnt think them feeling sick was actually the virus.
 
Yes. The testing started out very slow so its hard to know exactly how many more cases there were. The timeline for deaths are more accurate actual numbers.
 
Screenshot_20200328-005345_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Health care rankings are suspect, and possibly biased. Most of these rankings are people ranking themselves, like hollywood.

But I agree with your point. You would think for 30% of our GDP (the number that was thrown around when we were optimizing the system by implementing Obamacare) that we would get more bang for our buck.
 
We don't and won't know the true death rate. There are doubtless numerous people exposed and a large number who have gotten ill and recovered without medical intervention. For lack of sufficient tests and lab resources, many aren't even tested. Our local clinic won't even test unless someone is severe enough to be admitted to the hospital. As such, the death rate is grossly elevated and
inaccurate.
 
We don't and won't know the true death rate. There are doubtless numerous people exposed and a large number who have gotten ill and recovered without medical intervention. For lack of sufficient tests and lab resources, many aren't even tested. Our local clinic won't even test unless someone is severe enough to be admitted to the hospital. As such, the death rate is grossly elevated and
inaccurate.
That’s true of the flu as well. I think the numbers that count most are hospitalization and death number. But tracking case numbers does give indication as to how fast the virus doubles and when it begins to slow.
 
Grizz, did you happen to notice how this dude accounted for the variations in population density and transmission rates? I'm pretty sure I'm statistically less likely to be exposed compared to someone in a human wet market like NYC.

Im skeptical of charlatans taking advantage of our inherent stupidity, and now seems to be a particularly good time for that.
 
How many of you had or knew of someone that was sick last Nov, Dec, Jan or Feb with these same symptoms..and lasted 10-14 days? Was it the COVID virus? It was labeled a sever upper respiratory illness. Would it be a coincidence? I know quite a few of them that had those symptoms...people my age of 48. They all made it. Its hard to say this is over blown. I feel we're doing the right thing but I don't think everyone is grasping that if you are in good health, it'll get in and get out without much disruption to our lives. I agree with treed....its been here longer than we think. Just my 2 cents...

I'm sure I'll twist some panties here. I agree with this 100%..... My entire family , including brother his gf, my sister her husband her boys, me my wife and kids ,and tons of people we knew were just flattened by this "Mystery upper respiratory virus/ infection" this past winter. Fevers peaking 104! Coughing for weeks! All after a new years trip to Vegas. Drs didn't know WTH it was and that is just the truth. My nephews and daughters fevers would not subcide very long. I believe it's been here longer than we are being told. There just weren't tests for it. Now , the more people getting tested are just running up the # of confirmed cases here because there is actually a test .

Just my ¢2 !!!
 
I'm sure I'll twist some panties here. I agree with this 100%..... My entire family , including brother his gf, my sister her husband her boys, me my wife and kids ,and tons of people we knew were just flattened by this "Mystery upper respiratory virus/ infection" this past winter. Fevers peaking 104! Coughing for weeks! All after a new years trip to Vegas. Drs didn't know WTH it was and that is just the truth. My nephews and daughters fevers would not subcide very long. I believe it's been here longer than we are being told. There just weren't tests for it. Now , the more people getting tested are just running up the # of confirmed cases here because there is actually a test .

Just my ¢2 !!!

I think you are right.
 
There were no sharp rises in deaths at that time. I don't believe it was here earlier than we first reported in Washington state. At least not a long time before. I would like to think you're right to a certain degree and that everyone who has had a bad cough is now immune. Herd immunity is our best bet it seems. That would slow things down considerably letting time for healthcare to catch up. I'm not optimistic about that being the case though.
 
Grizz, did you happen to notice how this dude accounted for the variations in population density and transmission rates? I'm pretty sure I'm statistically less likely to be exposed compared to someone in a human wet market like NYC.

Im skeptical of charlatans taking advantage of our inherent stupidity, and now seems to be a particularly good time for that.
Yeah, go take a look at his Facebook page. He's got every state broken down individually and updates them constantly as new data comes in. He leaves the originals up there so you can see how things change. That graph is the sum of the individual states.


I'm in no way vouching for his modeling (his methodology is WAY over my head), but I will say it has been the best so far. He's a heckuva lot closer than the 2.2 Million deaths they started with (he's currently estimating 6,000). Only time will tell who was most accurate though.
 
Thanks, I'm one of those guys who doesn't do Facebook. Plus, having my head in the sand makes my worldview much simpler.
 
Thanks, I'm one of those guys who doesn't do Facebook. Plus, having my head in the sand makes my worldview much simpler.
I don't do Facebook either. I've never had an account, but you don't need one to view his page. Interesting stuff on his site.
 
I disagree.if it were here in Nov and Dec, people would’ve been dying. The virus wouldn’t have just recently become deadly. People just want to think they had to prove some idea they have. That’s my opinion.


How do you know they didn't?

You keep posting 2.5 day doubling rate.

Patient 0 in Wuhan China was Nov 17. The Virus didn't start manifesting RO after it hit the US.

14,000 people traveled out of Wuhan area to US.

They will start testing December blood samples from flu tests for Covid antibodies. And they will find them.

Or did you not notice the US "lag" behind Iran?

It was a raging disease in China for months before WHO finally admitted it.

There were Chinese and Americans who flew out of Wuhan area, infected, and came here.

The RO hasn't changed. Start on Nov 17. Figure out how many could have been infected before travel ban from China. Then Figure how many were infected before travel ban from Europe.

It was here by Thankksgiving.
 
How do you know they didn't?

You keep posting 2.5 day doubling rate.

Patient 0 in Wuhan China was Nov 17. The Virus didn't start manifesting RO after it hit the US.

14,000 people traveled out of Wuhan area to US.

They will start testing December blood samples from flu tests for Covid antibodies. And they will find them.

Or did you not notice the US "lag" behind Iran?

It was a raging disease in China for months before WHO finally admitted it.

There were Chinese and Americans who flew out of Wuhan area, infected, and came here.

The RO hasn't changed. Start on Nov 17. Figure out how many could have been infected before travel ban from China. Then Figure how many were infected before travel ban from Europe.

It was here by Thankksgiving.
I believe it. ?
 
How do you know they didn't?

You keep posting 2.5 day doubling rate.

Patient 0 in Wuhan China was Nov 17. The Virus didn't start manifesting RO after it hit the US.

14,000 people traveled out of Wuhan area to US.

They will start testing December blood samples from flu tests for Covid antibodies. And they will find them.

Or did you not notice the US "lag" behind Iran?

It was a raging disease in China for months before WHO finally admitted it.

There were Chinese and Americans who flew out of Wuhan area, infected, and came here.

The RO hasn't changed. Start on Nov 17. Figure out how many could have been infected before travel ban from China. Then Figure how many were infected before travel ban from Europe.

It was here by Thankksgiving.
A lot more Grandma and Grandpa's would be dead. The holidays would have spread it to the people who are most at risk for death with all of the visitation. I feel there would have been a huge jump in elderly and nursing home deaths.
 
Being here and being widpread are different.

We will know fairly soon. The antibody tests are coming on line
 

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