12AW early

nontypical

nontypical

Long Time Member
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4,195
I'm 71. Be 72 in November. 24 deer points. I doubt if I'll ever see a late Kaibab tag; let alone the Strip (impossible).

So..I guess I'm applying for 12AW early. I don't get around as good as I once did, but still do okay as long as it's not super steep. I'm thinking DIY. More interested in a good hunt than inches of bone, although I kinda have a personal thing about not killing a buck under 170; or at least 4+ years of age (near as I could tell). I know there's another thread about this, but that one is from a resident. I'm NR.

Another consideration is 13A muzzleloader. But I haven't checked my odds on that one.

Any thoughts? Thanks
 
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I like the 12AW early idea. It's a fun hunt, lots of deer, lots of hunters. Burn should help, moisture has been great. Killing a 170 will require some trigger discipline and hunting hard. Even at that you might go home empty handed but it's not an unreasonable goal. I'd draw and hunt it while you can. You never know that the future will bring.
 
There’s more feed on the west side than the east side , last year the season started earlier and it seemed like the deer were holding up in the timber even though we had 4” of snow and cold weather. I hunted the east side last and after shooting my buck I went with another hunter to check out the west side and lots of country to glass , I think half the hunters left after 3 or 4 days of hunting
 
The first question is are you going guided or not guided.

The second is what kind of hunt do you want? Do you want to see a lot of people ( 12 area hunts ) or do you want to do a hunt where you see less people.

If you want to see less people I would look at the 3A3C early hunt. 100 vs 300 tags. The top end will be a bit less than 12AE but the hunt should be more enjoyable and will still have an opportunity at a 170-200" deer if you hunt it hard.

I would still do first choice late Kaibab for 12BW or 12AW to see if you can get lucky and get it in the bonus and choice both one or the other. I think having a tag year is the most important decision you can make.
 
El Gringo said:
I like the 12BW Late idea a lot more than the AW Early for as long as you’ve waited…. Or even the 12BW Muzzy tag.
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I don’t think he can draw 12bw late and there is no max point tag for 12bw muzzy. I think the guy is honestly right in the fact that he has to pull the trigger on 12aw early if he wants to be assured a hunt in the next few years.
 
Don't do 12a west early.
I drew in 2021 with only four points, and I was very disappointed. No way would I burn as many points as you have on the hunt. Everyone was struggling including the guides. Very crowded people everywhere.
 
The last 3 years 23 points guaranteed a tag in 12B west late.
success in 12B late last year was 92%, 12AW early was 59%. I know they kill some big bucks on the early hunt but it’s tuff, I know for a fact they kill some smokers on the 12B late hunt.
I am 1 under max and apply for 12AW late but have been tempted to switch to 12B With max guys giving up on the strip and taking the bonus tags in 12AW.
 
oilcan said:
The last 3 years 23 points guaranteed a tag in 12B west late.
success in 12B late last year was 92%, 12AW early was 59%. I know they kill some big bucks on the early hunt but it’s tuff, I know for a fact they kill some smokers on the 12B late hunt.
I am 1 under max and apply for 12AW late but have been tempted to switch to 12B With max guys giving up on the strip and taking the bonus tags in 12AW.
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IMG_3392.png

Here is where he’s been against 12bw late. Had a SLIGHT chance in 21 during a drought. I’d argue he’s 10+ years away on that one at best. Expect that to take 25+ this year as guys slowly come to realize that strip tags as a NR are essentially off the table for everyone forever.
 
Yote thanks for the info. Maybe my info is bad or I’m miss reading it.
Mine shows NR Bonus pass odds:
2022 3% with 22 points
2021 12% with 22 points
2020 40% with 22 points
So I assumed anything over 22 was 100% for those years.

What do you show for the 12AW late hunt ?
yotebuster17 said:
View attachment 111904
Here is where he’s been against 12bw late. Had a SLIGHT chance in 21 during a drought. I’d argue he’s 10+ years away on that one at best. Expect that to take 25+ this year as guys slowly come to realize that strip tags as a NR are essentially off the table for everyone forev
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Thanks guys. Do my points apply for my 2nd choice? So if I apply for 12AW late first choice and 12A early second choice would I FOR SURE draw the early if I whiffed on my first choice?

I'm not getting any younger, and I have a couple buddies that want to go, so I think I'm going to pull the trigger and go hunt with my buddies DIY.

Still have a few days to decide, so keep the suggestions coming. Much appreciated. I am a little concerned about 300 tags. Seems like a lot of folks. I would rather see less deer and less humans than more deer and more humans.
 
Are you putting in as a group?
If you put in by yourself you will have no chance at the late hunt. You will be in the bonus pass for the early and you will be awarded that tag.
 
Just me. Az draw is pretty confusing to me. If I apply for 12AW as my 1st choice, I have no chance of drawing it? Will I draw 12A early as my 2nd choice no matter what?
 
nontypical said:
Just me. Az draw is pretty confusing to me. If I apply for 12AW as my 1st choice, I have no chance of drawing it? Will I draw 12A early as my 2nd choice no matter what?
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If you are not in the bonus pass for your first choice yes. The system will allocate the tag to the bonus before the random which means your points will burn.

12AW, 12AE , and 3A3C will all kick out great deer . Make a choice send in the app and have a great hunt. Having a tag this year is the most important choice overall and you’ve made that already!

2021 was a rough year . Tag #s were still very high and if I remember right 2021 had high winds and snow for the first 3-4 days of the season?
 
Some of you guys have mentioned 3A/3C early for an alternative to the Kaibab units, but no one has mentioned 3A/3C late. Should that be on my radar? 10 tags Dec 15-31. Thanks guys. And thanks for not scolding me for waiting till the last minute!
 
nontypical said:
Some of you guys have mentioned 3A/3C early for an alternative to the Kaibab units, but no one has mentioned 3A/3C late. Should that be on my radar? 10 tags Dec 15-31. Thanks guys. And thanks for not scolding me for waiting till the last minute!
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No bonus tags on the late hunt so it’s all Random
 
nontypical said:
Some of you guys have mentioned 3A/3C early for an alternative to the Kaibab units, but no one has mentioned 3A/3C late. Should that be on my radar? 10 tags Dec 15-31. Thanks guys. And thanks for not scolding me for waiting till the last minute!
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I havent hunted it but been in their shed and turkey hunting. I’m very underwhelmed by the pics of the bucks I see the few big name outfits kill in there. Seems like every year there’s one real nice 190-low 200’s buck that gets killed in there but the vast majority of the pics the guide services post are 150-165 tops. That’s a lot of points for a buck like that. If I were burning on a late hunt I’d do 10 before I’d do 3a3c. The genetics are stellar up there, just not many deer. I think any of those December hunts are gonna be random only though. Also make sure you can be gone over Christmas as that’s the best and only chance of rutting you’ll have between Xmas and new year.
 
You can't draw 10 late because there is no bonus pass tag. Your best options are one of the Kaibab early hunts or 3c early hunt. If you're happy killing a 170-175 buck it can be done fairly easily in 3c and you're not fighting stupid crowds of people. It's also very easy terrain. 27 late is also an option with 25 tags but I really don't know much about that hunt other than you could catch some rutting at the end of December and a lot of 27 is rough country.
 
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yotebuster17 said:
I havent hunted it but been in their shed and turkey hunting. I’m very underwhelmed by the pics of the bucks I see the few big name outfits kill in there. Seems like every year there’s one real nice 190-low 200’s buck that gets killed in there but the vast majority of the pics the guide services post are 150-165 tops. That’s a lot of points for a buck like that. If I were burning on a late hunt I’d do 10 before I’d do 3a3c. The genetics are stellar up there, just not many deer. I think any of those December hunts are gonna be random only though. Also make sure you can be gone over Christmas as that’s the best and only chance of rutting you’ll have between Xmas and new year.
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Man all the times i have hunted cow elk, and a few bull elk in ten I have seen so few deer, but the ones I have seen were absolute smokers. I wish I knew more about deer in 10 than I do.
 
yotebuster17 said:
I havent hunted it but been in their shed and turkey hunting. I’m very underwhelmed by the pics of the bucks I see the few big name outfits kill in there. Seems like every year there’s one real nice 190-low 200’s buck that gets killed in there but the vast majority of the pics the guide services post are 150-165 tops. That’s a lot of points for a buck like that. If I were burning on a late hunt I’d do 10 before I’d do 3a3c. The genetics are stellar up there, just not many deer. I think any of those December hunts are gonna be random only though. Also make sure you can be gone over Christmas as that’s the best and only chance of rutting you’ll have between Xmas and new year.
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When do those deer rut in 3a/3c? Seems like the timeframe between Christmas and New Years would be after the rut. Kaibab bucks are full rut around Thanksgiving and the southern AZ muleys rutting in late Dec/early Jan, but with 3a/3c being further south I could see it being a little later, but not as late as Christmas.
 
Bwht4x4 said:
When do those deer rut in 3a/3c? Seems like the timeframe between Christmas and New Years would be after the rut. Kaibab bucks are full rut around Thanksgiving and the southern AZ muleys rutting in late Dec/early Jan, but with 3a/3c being further south I could see it being a little later, but not as late as Christmas.
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They rut in January pretty much anywhere south of the Grand Canyon.
 
Bwht4x4 said:
When do those deer rut in 3a/3c? Seems like the timeframe between Christmas and New Years would be after the rut. Kaibab bucks are full rut around Thanksgiving and the southern AZ muleys rutting in late Dec/early Jan, but with 3a/3c being further south I could see it being a little later, but not as late as Christmas.
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The issue with this hunt in 3A3C is if it turns snowy the deer move down and out of the zone. If it is a dry winter it could be a good hunt.
 
Kaibab 12AW it is. I plan on a scouting trip to learn some country more so than trying to find a buck to hunt.

Hopefully, previous tag cuts will show more bucks on the landscape.

Hopefully, the wet winter/spring causes good antler growth.

I've been through the Kaibab a couple times, including a stop at Jacob Lake Lodge. Real neat place; an iconic mule deer area with an awesome history. I was told this year is the 100th anniversary of the lodge. That even adds more to drawing this year.

I appreciate all the input and suggestions from all who contributed. Any more suggestions and input is also greatly appreciated. My pm is open. I always try to help out nr when they draw Wyoming tags, and many of them have killed great animals.

I have no expectations for this hunt. Only that I will have a tag in one of the most iconic and historic mule deer areas on the planet. That alone is worth the trip. Being able to hunt muleys there will be another memory, and with some luck, maybe another trophy to be blessed with. If tag soup is on the menu; so be it.

Thanks again for the suggestions and comments!
 
Bwht4x4 said:
When do those deer rut in 3a/3c? Seems like the timeframe between Christmas and New Years would be after the rut. Kaibab bucks are full rut around Thanksgiving and the southern AZ muleys rutting in late Dec/early Jan, but with 3a/3c being further south I could see it being a little later, but not as late as Christmas.
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Deer in 3c don't start rutting hard until around Christmas time and go through most of January. Have seen bucks with does all the way into February.
 
nontypical said:
Kaibab 12AW it is. I plan on a scouting trip to learn some country more so than trying to find a buck to hunt.

Hopefully, previous tag cuts will show more bucks on the landscape.

Hopefully, the wet winter/spring causes good antler growth.

I've been through the Kaibab a couple times, including a stop at Jacob Lake Lodge. Real neat place; an iconic mule deer area with an awesome history. I was told this year is the 100th anniversary of the lodge. That even adds more to drawing this year.

I appreciate all the input and suggestions from all who contributed. Any more suggestions and input is also greatly appreciated. My pm is open. I always try to help out nr when they draw Wyoming tags, and many of them have killed great animals.

I have no expectations for this hunt. Only that I will have a tag in one of the most iconic and historic mule deer areas on the planet. That alone is worth the trip. Being able to hunt muleys there will be another memory, and with some luck, maybe another trophy to be blessed with. If tag soup is on the menu; so be it.

Thanks again for the suggestions and comments!
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Best of luck!!
 
nontypical said:
Kaibab 12AW it is. I plan on a scouting trip to learn some country more so than trying to find a buck to hunt.

Hopefully, previous tag cuts will show more bucks on the landscape.

Hopefully, the wet winter/spring causes good antler growth.

I've been through the Kaibab a couple times, including a stop at Jacob Lake Lodge. Real neat place; an iconic mule deer area with an awesome history. I was told this year is the 100th anniversary of the lodge. That even adds more to drawing this year.

I appreciate all the input and suggestions from all who contributed. Any more suggestions and input is also greatly appreciated. My pm is open. I always try to help out nr when they draw Wyoming tags, and many of them have killed great animals.

I have no expectations for this hunt. Only that I will have a tag in one of the most iconic and historic mule deer areas on the planet. That alone is worth the trip. Being able to hunt muleys there will be another memory, and with some luck, maybe another trophy to be blessed with. If tag soup is on the menu; so be it.

Thanks again for the suggestions and comments!
Click to expand...

Well
nontypical said:
Kaibab 12AW it is. I plan on a scouting trip to learn some country more so than trying to find a buck to hunt.

Hopefully, previous tag cuts will show more bucks on the landscape.

Hopefully, the wet winter/spring causes good antler growth.

I've been through the Kaibab a couple times, including a stop at Jacob Lake Lodge. Real neat place; an iconic mule deer area with an awesome history. I was told this year is the 100th anniversary of the lodge. That even adds more to drawing this year.

I appreciate all the input and suggestions from all who contributed. Any more suggestions and input is also greatly appreciated. My pm is open. I always try to help out nr when they draw Wyoming tags, and many of them have killed great animals.

I have no expectations for this hunt. Only that I will have a tag in one of the most iconic and historic mule deer areas on the planet. That alone is worth the trip. Being able to hunt muleys there will be another memory, and with some luck, maybe another trophy to be blessed with. If tag soup is on the menu; so be it.

Thanks again for the suggestions and comments!
Click to expand...
well now we get to play the waiting game! Hopefully we can chat after the hunt and review each other’s hunts. My dad and I put in with 17/18 points.

Should be fun
 
nontypical said:
Kaibab 12AW it is. I plan on a scouting trip to learn some country more so than trying to find a buck to hunt.

Hopefully, previous tag cuts will show more bucks on the landscape.

Hopefully, the wet winter/spring causes good antler growth.

I've been through the Kaibab a couple times, including a stop at Jacob Lake Lodge. Real neat place; an iconic mule deer area with an awesome history. I was told this year is the 100th anniversary of the lodge. That even adds more to drawing this year.

I appreciate all the input and suggestions from all who contributed. Any more suggestions and input is also greatly appreciated. My pm is open. I always try to help out nr when they draw Wyoming tags, and many of them have killed great animals.

I have no expectations for this hunt. Only that I will have a tag in one of the most iconic and historic mule deer areas on the planet. That alone is worth the trip. Being able to hunt muleys there will be another memory, and with some luck, maybe another trophy to be blessed with. If tag soup is on the menu; so be it.

Thanks again for the suggestions and comments!
Click to expand...
Very refreshing outlook! I wish you luck!! So nice to see something other then “I have X number of points where can I find a big thays big enough to justify my X number of years waiting”
 
I used to think that way. I remember passing a 190+ in Nevada one year. I wanted a 200.
yotebuster17 said:
Very refreshing outlook! I wish you luck!! So nice to see something other then “I have X number of points where can I find a big thays big enough to justify my X number of years waiting”
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I get it. Wanting to kill your biggest buck ever.

In my older age, I have come to realize the importance of the hunt is not the inches of bone, but pretty much everything else involved in the hunt. Inches are great, but I don't think about inches when I'm looking at one of my trophies. I think about the hunt. Who I was with. The weather that day. How it happened. Etc, etc.

That being said, anyone know where I could kill a big one?? Ha ha
 
nontypical said:
I used to think that way. I remember passing a 190+ in Nevada one year. I wanted a 200.

I get it. Wanting to kill your biggest buck ever.

In my older age, I have come to realize the importance of the hunt is not the inches of bone, but pretty much everything else involved in the hunt. Inches are great, but I don't think about inches when I'm looking at one of my trophies. I think about the hunt. Who I was with. The weather that day. How it happened. Etc, etc.

That being said, anyone know where I could kill a big one?? Ha ha
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I sent u a PM
 
nontypical said:
Kaibab 12AW it is. I plan on a scouting trip to learn some country more so than trying to find a buck to hunt.

Hopefully, previous tag cuts will show more bucks on the landscape.

Hopefully, the wet winter/spring causes good antler growth.

I've been through the Kaibab a couple times, including a stop at Jacob Lake Lodge. Real neat place; an iconic mule deer area with an awesome history. I was told this year is the 100th anniversary of the lodge. That even adds more to drawing this year.

I appreciate all the input and suggestions from all who contributed. Any more suggestions and input is also greatly appreciated. My pm is open. I always try to help out nr when they draw Wyoming tags, and many of them have killed great animals.

I have no expectations for this hunt. Only that I will have a tag in one of the most iconic and historic mule deer areas on the planet. That alone is worth the trip. Being able to hunt muleys there will be another memory, and with some luck, maybe another trophy to be blessed with. If tag soup is on the menu; so be it.

Thanks again for the suggestions and comments!
Click to expand...
Good luck in the draw NT!
 
Hope there is not a large jump in points. My friend has 15 NR points. Seems like the last few years when we had other stuff scheduled and we did the Haul Mary for the strip he could of drawn. And times he did put in he was a point short. Oh well, hope this is the year.
 
devobrodie said:
I thought we had it in the bag this year since I have 18 and my son has 14 points, but you guys are scaring me now!
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Crazy that I drew the early 12aw hunt in 2015 with a buddy with like 8 or 9 pts. After the hunt I was bummed I let melyself be talked into burning my points on that hunt. I should have waited and collected points!
 
I could have gone 2 times already and still had some points, but I was waiting for my son to get out of the Marines, then he started a family etc, crazy how this hunt used to take only 6 points not that long ago! I have drawn 33 late Dec Coues 2x before I started on this bunch of points, pretty sure this will be the last thing I am saving points for deer in AZ
 
devobrodie said:
I thought we had it in the bag this year since I have 18 and my son has 14 points, but you guys are scaring me now!
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Did you you apply as a group? If so you should be ok as that puts you both at 16. Looks like 15 was the cutoff last year outside of some outliers that look like they hitch hiked with another higher point person. There were 5 people in the 14 point pool that didn’t draw so even if they applied the same your head of them.

Later dates and good moisture may do some whacky things but I think you’ll be fine if you applied as a group. The only issue would be if the point creep was that bad and you get drawn and only 1 tag is left.
 
Skykarp said:
Did you you apply as a group? If so you should be ok as that puts you both at 16. Looks like 15 was the cutoff last year outside of some outliers that look like they hitch hiked with another higher point person. There were 5 people in the 14 point pool that didn’t draw so even if they applied the same your head of them.

Later dates and good moisture may do some whacky things but I think you’ll be fine if you applied as a group. The only issue would be if the point creep was that bad and you get drawn and only 1 tag is left.
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We did apply as a group, so hopefully we will make it!
 
You also have the 2nd pass, if your not relying on points alone.
Is there a second pass report anymore?
 
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Skykarp said:
As a NR it’s 5/5. It’s most defiantly not useless .but as I said if you are trying to plan your season it is.
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You are correct it's 5/5. It really depends on the hunt you are applying for. If you are applying for the strip it's very unlikely to happen in the 1-2 pass. If you apply for an easy to draw tag, the majority of the time you are going to get it in the 1-2 pass as a NR. Depends on what hunt you put in for.
 
For most N/R hunts, especially high demand hunts, it only takes a few folks with lots of points to really change draw odds. Lots of guys just buy points for years, and for a multitude of reasons they sit on the sidelines until their stars align, then they apply.

I am not very optimistic about my chances to draw as a resident. Something tells me I'm getting my 8th point. Stopped applying for BH years ago. For a guy that is very passionate about hunting, BH never interested me much.

Good Luck to all that applied for a hunt.
 
huntazido said:
For most N/R hunts, especially high demand hunts, it only takes a few folks with lots of points to really change draw odds. Lots of guys just buy points for years, and for a multitude of reasons they sit on the sidelines until their stars align, then they apply.
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You pretty much described me. As a resident, been buying points only as I wait for things to line up. Mostly work and family obligations. When the “stars align” as you say, I’ll jump in.

By the way, I’m sitting on 20 points going into this draw.
 
The problem with point creep is it all the sudden justifies people burning points for X hunt. A lot of guys with 18-20 NR AZ deer points would have never dreamt of burning them on early kaibab hunts but now if it takes 18 this year, all the sudden it becomes a “good hunt” because it took 18 so then they burn and it takes 21 and so on.
 
I don’t think it necessarily has anything to do whether it’s a good hunt or not. The better question is do you want to hunt or not.

At the end of the day 5% of tags are possible for NR without having a lucky horseshoe . How long are you willing to wait for a "good hunt". Does everyone want to hunt the late bab and absolutely, but it is unrealistic. I think more and more people are starting to get to the point of I am going to just hunt the best zone I can.


If you want a numbers example.

In 2022 there were 51 tags issued to NR with 15+ points in the Bonus and 1/2 pass. 51! Guess how many people still reside in those point pools 3085. Hopefully the moisture continues for a few years and they can increase tags but even at that just to get through this group is 55-60 years at that current pace.

Its not just an AZ problem, it is a Ponzi problem.
 
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Skykarp said:
I don’t think it necessarily has anything to do whether it’s a good hunt or not. The better question is do you want to hunt or not.

At the end of the day 5% of tags are possible for NR without having a lucky horseshoe . How long are you willing to wait for a "good hunt". Does everyone want to hunt the late bab and absolutely, but it is unrealistic. I think more and more people are starting to get to the point of I am going to just hunt the best zone I can.


If you want a numbers example.

In 2022 there were 51 tags issued to NR with 15+ points in the Bonus and 1/2 pass. 51! Guess how many people still reside in those point pools 3085. Hopefully the moisture continues for a few years and they can increase tags but even at that just to get through this group is 55-60 years at that current pace.

Its not just an AZ problem, it is a Ponzi problem.
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You have to remember to, a lot of the point holders are our kids. Put inn at age 10.
 
Flatlander said:
I am really interested to see how many points it takes to be the guy holding the 1 NR bonus pass tag available for unit 27 December Muley.
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Had one guy asking about it here a few weeks ago with 20+ points trying for it. I think his odds are pretty high of getting it.
 
Flatlander said:
Have to say, I am sitting at Jacob Lake right now and the grass is tall and deep green. Gunna be some happy dudes on Tuesday.
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I wonder when you cross the line of too green? The deer, elk and antelope in eastern MT and western ND have green feed and high protein feed all summer and never produce like desert deer. I actually think the best years here are drought years where the feed is more nutrient dense, you see it with beef calves for sure the heaviest calves are always on dry years and same with biggest antlers. Makes me wonder if there isn’t a point, especially in the kaibab where it’s usually greener then the strip or the pariah, where they got going too late on antlers and the feed is gonna be too watered down. I think it’s gonna be a heck of a year anywhere in the desert and I’m sure the kaibab will be fine, but wonder about too much.
 
@yotebuster17 it would be any interesting study to see if there is any correlation. I’ll have to remember the podcast but they spoke about deer born during wet vs dry years. Fawns born during wet years had better opportunity with age to put bone on their head as the animal was programmed that way.

If nothing else it should allow fawn recruitment to be as high as possible.
 
junior said:
You have to remember to, a lot of the point holders are our kids. Put inn at age 10.
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I am one of those “kids” my dad started putting me in because we hunted Cibola / CRIT land for a month at a time. I can’t see a path forward for one of the 3 -5 hunts that is a bucket list hunt. I would rather burn my 17 points move on and start focusing on an area I can possibly draw every 4-8 years.

Just my perspective tho
 

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