2016 Bonus Point Data

huntnrich

Active Member
Messages
308
I have 18 NR points and I just joined gohunt for the true Nevada odds. With 18 points I have like .079 chance of drawing 221 Late, just to show you how much $3000 in points helps your odds.
 

Sierra

Very Active Member
Messages
1,027
The data is those tables are almost worthless, as they only show first choice applicants for the unsuccessful apps. The true odds are much, much worse for most of those units.
 

mevertsen

Very Active Member
Messages
1,057
The odds are not wrong. They are what they are with the parameters they have set. People occasionally get a tag other than their first choice.

Worrying about how many people were unsuccessful with other than their first choice isn't worth it.

They could put all the total unsuccessful applicants but then the odds would be biased worse because it would show the same person being unsuccessful 5 times.

Not worth the trouble. Apply for the area you want and be happy when you get a tag. If you want to hunt more often, apply for the lesser demand units. If you want the best know that you will wait.
 

mlycrzy

Very Active Member
Messages
1,978
I agree, the odds aren't wrong. They just don't show everyone's 1st-5th choices. I've drawn a good amount of tags over the past few years using these "wrong" odds and putting in for easier to draw units. I'd rather have a tag in my pocket every few years instead of waiting for the hard to draw units with late hunts and low tag numbers.
 

Sierra

Very Active Member
Messages
1,027
>The odds are not wrong.
>They are what they are
>with the parameters they have
>set. People occasionally get
>a tag other than their
>first choice.
>
>Worrying about how many people were
>unsuccessful with other than their
>first choice isn't worth it.
>
>
>They could put all the total
>unsuccessful applicants but then the
>odds would be biased worse
>because it would show the
>same person being unsuccessful 5
>times.
>
>Not worth the trouble. Apply
>for the area you want
>and be happy when you
>get a tag. If
>you want to hunt more
>often, apply for the lesser
>demand units. If you
>want the best know that
>you will wait.

The data they provide may not be wrong, but if you use that data to try to estimate your odds of drawing, you will be way, way off for most of the units. People don't "ocasionally" draw their 2-5 choices, they do it much more than that. It has a huge impact on the odds, so you can't dismiss it like you have.
 

Wiszard

Long Time Member
Messages
9,182
I've never had a good mule deer hunt in Nevada. I say we all boycott this years draw! Who's with me?

Steve

Cancer doesn't discriminate...don't take your good health for granted because it can be gone in a heartbeat. Please go back and read the last line. This time really understand what it says.
 

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