2021 point creep

Point creep how many points

  • 0 point creep

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1 point creep

    Votes: 23 21.9%
  • 2 point creep

    Votes: 47 44.8%
  • 3 point creep

    Votes: 21 20.0%
  • 4-5 point creep

    Votes: 11 10.5%
  • 6-7 point creep

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • 8+ point creep

    Votes: 2 1.9%

  • Total voters
    105

BradA

Very Active Member
Messages
1,723
I thought it would be interesting to see what everyone thinks the units will creep up by this year?

This poll is subjected around 3rd season deer, since that is likely to have the largest point creep out of all the hunt dates.
 
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BradA

Very Active Member
Messages
1,723
Depending on the unit
I think with the later dates this year 3rd seasons will spike and 2nd will drop a little but who knows
I agree, I guess I should have had more clarity on the original post. This would be for third season, deer of course. Since that is likely the season that will see the most for point creep.
 

goldhunter

Active Member
Messages
420
I think second season will jump as well. everybody will try using points over the next couple of seasons with the outlook for the future. That is for the more popular units anyway.
 

tailchasers

Long Time Member
Messages
3,784
Spend those points! We have yet to decide if we are going to play the Colorado game this year. Not sure it's worth it even with the later seasons. Numbers and quality are chit then add tag increases? I guess hunting is better than no hunting.
 

Conrad8899

Active Member
Messages
133
I think the top tier units will jump 3-4 points... So 3rd season will take 4th season points and 2nd season will take 3rd season points... 2nd season will take double digit points this year...
 

BradA

Very Active Member
Messages
1,723
The real interesting part of it all is I wonder what will happen to the second choice units? Maybe none will be issued? They will all go to first choice.
 

muleyslayerwa

Member
Messages
67
Yes there will be significant creep in lower tag quota hunts 3rd rifle. 2nd might change a bit, and 4th a bit more than 2nd. I honestly believe most people will be after 3rd rifle tags this year
 

PacificFork

Member
Messages
21
What do you guys think will happen with the units that were 100% draw at zero points last year 2nd and 3rd? Think guys will spend 2-3 points on those now?
 

jims

Very Active Member
Messages
2,382
A lot of guys that have been applying for pts for years will likely apply for tags that they are hoping to draw.
 

bodhi

Member
Messages
95
I'm anticipating that 2nd season will go up since it's now almost what 3rd season was two years ago.

Just listened to the Epic outdoors podcast with Mike Duplan. Don't know how many times they all said "burn em" referring to CO points in 2021. I voted 2 points in the poll but it could be a lot more in some units.
 

DW

Long Time Member
Messages
13,588
Many have been saying burn your Colorado points the past few years since CPW put an X on mature bucks as CWD superspreaders. How many more people are still holding on to their points? Wouldn't think there'd be many left by now, like our mature bucks......
 

ORIONTHEHUNTER

Active Member
Messages
824
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Soccerdude

Active Member
Messages
402
I got my CO deer app in today. In 2020 it was 100% draw with 2 points. I have three for 2021. Fingers crossed its enough.
 

lostinOregon

Very Active Member
Messages
1,669
One of the things that I keep hearing rumblings about is season quotas being changed this year. If you watched closely last year, unit 66 and 67 added 100 tags for deer between the units. Almost all of those increases went to primitive weapon hunts and 2nd season. They were not added in the true allocation across all seasons. I expect some season number wrangling on tag numbers this year. The seasons are set in stone, but the allocations can change. If I am biologist in a unit, I would move tags away from 3rd and 4th. I have nothing confirmed yet, and the allocations come out after the deadline. Good luck predicted the hot units and point creep.

Rich
 

DW

Long Time Member
Messages
13,588
It will be interesting to compare that 2020 preference point only chart to the 2019 one. I will do that when I get a chance.


I was bored. Added up 2019 residents with 10 or more pp, 3,760. And 2020 residents with 11 or more pp, 3,545. 216 burned their points and drew out. Are there 216 tags worth 10+ points? I wonder how many of these point holders have passed and been dead less than 10yrs? My guess is the majority of units will go up a point or less. As lostinoregon eluded to there could be some low tag units that jump 2 or 3. 44 4th rifle res has gone up 3 points since 2015.
 

bodhi

Member
Messages
95
I have 11 points, burning them this year. I can't continue to play the game anymore since all of the variables discussed with later dates, and quality seems to be declining across the state with the exception of the plains.

What baffles me is, harvest rates seem to be steady yet the quality is going down. For example, I'm going to be hunting the NW part of the state this year and looked at the harvest numbers(2008 through 2019) for units 22, 21, and 10. Most years are within 10% of the 11-year average with very few extremes. Inn fact, before the severe winter of 07, harvest rates (2003 through 2007) were 50% more for bucks; yet these units were considered "trophy" units during that time frame. Harvest drops and now they are no longer "go to" units for trophy quality. hmmmm. Something is going on and it's more complex than tag numbers or buck harvest.

Sorry for the rant. Either way, I'm all in this year. Hopefully, It's a good year since we had a mild winter.
 

Ramaha

Member
Messages
55
I have 11 points, burning them this year. I can't continue to play the game anymore since all of the variables discussed with later dates, and quality seems to be declining across the state with the exception of the plains.

What baffles me is, harvest rates seem to be steady yet the quality is going down. For example, I'm going to be hunting the NW part of the state this year and looked at the harvest numbers(2008 through 2019) for units 22, 21, and 10. Most years are within 10% of the 11-year average with very few extremes. Inn fact, before the severe winter of 07, harvest rates (2003 through 2007) were 50% more for bucks; yet these units were considered "trophy" units during that time frame. Harvest drops and now they are no longer "go to" units for trophy quality. hmmmm. Something is going on and it's more complex than tag numbers or buck harvest.

Sorry for the rant. Either way, I'm all in this year. Hopefully, It's a good year since we had a mild winter.
I agree with you.

We have a group of five with ten points each and we're going to apply for licenses with hopes that we get drawn and burn our points this year. Fingers crossed!!!
 

DW

Long Time Member
Messages
13,588
I didn't compare previous years I just knew there are a lot of guys out there with a lot of points.


There sure are. I'd never really taken the time to look at it hard and add it up. Still wonder how many of that 3k+ have passed within the last 10yrs and their points just haven't left the books yet. Not tryin to be morbid or disrespectful I just wouldn't think CPW cross references it with anything and simply let's them fall off after the 10yr period of them not applying. I still don't see a massive point jump coming this year.
 

Bluehair

Very Active Member
Messages
2,760
I have 11 points, burning them this year. I can't continue to play the game anymore since all of the variables discussed with later dates, and quality seems to be declining across the state with the exception of the plains.

What baffles me is, harvest rates seem to be steady yet the quality is going down. For example, I'm going to be hunting the NW part of the state this year and looked at the harvest numbers(2008 through 2019) for units 22, 21, and 10. Most years are within 10% of the 11-year average with very few extremes. Inn fact, before the severe winter of 07, harvest rates (2003 through 2007) were 50% more for bucks; yet these units were considered "trophy" units during that time frame. Harvest drops and now they are no longer "go to" units for trophy quality. hmmmm. Something is going on and it's more complex than tag numbers or buck harvest.

Sorry for the rant. Either way, I'm all in this year. Hopefully, It's a good year since we had a mild winter.
That sounds to me like total deer numbers dropping, while harvest objectives stay the same. Fewer and fewer mature bucks to choose from.

I realize there are a million other factors in play as well.
 

COLOelkman

Active Member
Messages
944
I was wanting to burn my pts and normal numbers I could draw a good 4th season but not sure if I will be able so thinking of dropping to 3rd season which might also jump big time. Tough to decide which one to choose???
 

Sambo_1503

Member
Messages
18
I was wanting to burn my pts and normal numbers I could draw a good 4th season but not sure if I will be able so thinking of dropping to 3rd season which might also jump big time. Tough to decide which one to choose???

Have you considered 2nd season also? If weather lines up for 2nd and 3rd there might not be many 140 bucks left for 4th season
 

Tomichi

Active Member
Messages
579
Are you guys sure the "Plain's" are doing good? The herd management plans and license allocation I see over there makes me wonder..war on mature bucks State wide..they're cure is worse than the disease..
 

bodhi

Member
Messages
95
I heard it was a ok to decent year on the plains from a guid friend of mine. Not sure if it will survive the cwd era of deer management in Colorado.
 

Ramaha

Member
Messages
55
I have 11 points, burning them this year. I can't continue to play the game anymore since all of the variables discussed with later dates, and quality seems to be declining across the state with the exception of the plains.

What baffles me is, harvest rates seem to be steady yet the quality is going down. For example, I'm going to be hunting the NW part of the state this year and looked at the harvest numbers(2008 through 2019) for units 22, 21, and 10. Most years are within 10% of the 11-year average with very few extremes. Inn fact, before the severe winter of 07, harvest rates (2003 through 2007) were 50% more for bucks; yet these units were considered "trophy" units during that time frame. Harvest drops and now they are no longer "go to" units for trophy quality. hmmmm. Something is going on and it's more complex than tag numbers or buck harvest.

Sorry for the rant. Either way, I'm all in this year. Hopefully, It's a good year since we had a mild winter.
I'm with you. Our group is burning them this year (if we get drawn). Good luck in the drawing.
 

Sambo_1503

Member
Messages
18
I don't think I'd do a 2nd season hunt as it's 12-15 pts less than what I have.

And that’s the problem many people think that they are over pointed and can’t do a hunt that requires less points when it very well could be the type of hunt they are expecting. You’ll see in this thread and many others that everyone is saying there isn’t a unit in the state worth 10+ points or even 5 at that matter. To each their own but I personally think 2nd season could be the most overlooked season with everyone looking at 3rd and 4th. The 9 day season at the first part of November is hard to look away from.
 

COLOelkman

Active Member
Messages
944
And that’s the problem many people think that they are over pointed and can’t do a hunt that requires less points when it very well could be the type of hunt they are expecting. You’ll see in this thread and many others that everyone is saying there isn’t a unit in the state worth 10+ points or even 5 at that matter. To each their own but I personally think 2nd season could be the most overlooked season with everyone looking at 3rd and 4th. The 9 day season at the first part of November is hard to look away from.
There's several reasons I'd not consider 2nd season for the unit I'm looking at as that tag could be drawn with 50/50 odds at 3 points and I have 20 pts. Waaaaay more tags issued in 2nd season as compared to 3rd or 4th. Also 2nd season has lots of doe tags as well as lots of elk hunters to deal with so it'd be and extremely crowded hunt relative to a 3rd season and 4th season would have no doe hunters and practically speaking very few elk hunters as the elk are not in the areas where deer are generally at that time. At least that's been my observations. So no way would I wait for 20 years to draw a tag that could be had with 3 or 4 pts. Not sure if any areas are really worth the number of pts it takes to draw them now since the deer numbers and quality have been significantly reduced over the last 4 or 5 years and seem to be is significant decline. This is all based on my reviewing a lot of posts by many people across the state so unfortunately I'm not really expecting a great hunt should I draw but at my age, I'm not gonna wait another 10-15 years and hope the deer numbers have a dramatic comeback.
 

Sambo_1503

Member
Messages
18
You are absolutely right 2nd season does issue a lot more tags. And I guess it is unit dependent but I’ve found 2nd season to have less pressure over the hunt than 3rd and 4th. It seems that most not all but most hunt that opening weekend and are done. And there is very little pressure Tuesday through Friday. A lot of people don’t take off that whole season. 3rd season it seems like you have a lot more pressure due to hype on the rut and shorter season it is easier to take off. 4th fewer tags but people have a lot more invested into 4th season hunts and seem to grind it out. On paper 2nd doesn’t look good. But good that you are doing your homework and looking for a good hunt. I wouldn’t look away from a 66 or 67 and 44 2nd season hunt just yet
 

jims

Very Active Member
Messages
2,382
Some units are highly dependent on deer movements to lower elevations. Some years these movements are earlier than others.... and some years it may not even happen until after the 4th season. With all the hunting pressure on public land from archery through rifle seasons.....deep snow tends to move deer around and some travel through public or onto public during the later rifle dates. The chance there is deeper snow at higher elevations is greater the longer into the season but as mentioned above there is a higher accumulation of hunting pressure on deer further into the seasons.

Monster bucks tend to hang out away from does during the earlier seasons. The later into the seasons...especially units with lighter hunting pressure....the better the chance to catch a whopper buck off-guard either with does or possibly close to does.

Each year is a little different with weather and there are a lot of factors involved that may change from 1 unit or year to the next.
 
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