5A Early Rifle Elk predictions

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The new this year early rifle hunts for 5A, and 5B elk hunts have caught my attention. Huntinfool describes the units as having the possibility of up to 340 type bulls during the early rifle hunts. So far the research I'm finding is making me doubt the claims of 340 type bulls, unless that's the very top end for the unit. Any predictions on what size upper end bulls will be harvested? If I'm reading huntinfool correctly there will be 24 tags in A and 24 in B. Will there be 1 non resident tag in the bonus pass? I have 23 non resident points and wondering if I'm dreaming to have a chance or wasting points since we don't know how many points it could possibly take. Would love to hear from hunters that have experience in 5 for elk. Thanks
 
I can't imagine 5A/5B not having 340 type bulls. I haven't been there in a couple years, but 340 cannot be a stretch at all. It's better than the unit this bull was in last year- and I'm pretty sure he's in that class.

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A lot of 280-310 bulls, finding one past 310 will be a chore. Bull quality has decreased lately. If you have a lot of points stick to 9, 10, 3a/3c , 23 or 1.
 
A lot of 280-310 bulls, finding one past 310 will be a chore. Bull quality has decreased lately. If you have a lot of points stick to 9, 10, 3a/3c , 23 or 1.
Can't argue those units...

I used to spend tons of time in 6A, 5BN/S, and they had some seriously nice bulls. Maybe the last 5 years have changed a bunch...
 
There isn’t a unit in AZ where a 340 isn’t a chance on a September rifle hunt. If I had that tag I wouldn’t take the safety off for anything under 360. The genetics are there, age maybe not so much but AZ can turn out 350 bulls at 6-7yr old easily with good moisture which they have. Unless you’ve got an absolute pile of points and have your pick of the entire state it would be an unbeatable hunt. I think too often people look at the HF and epic numbers as gospel. I’ve seen a 340 bull in every unit I’ve been in in AZ and that includes the worst of the worst units.
 
On last years youth elk hunt we came across a heard of about 40 and the herd bull was all of 360! There were two other 6x6s that you could really tell the size difference between the three bulls. Get away from people and you will find them.
 
675 tags on the late hunt in 5B, 339 for 5A. Both crowded late hunts. You could dig up a big bull somewhere but odds are more towards a 260-300 bull. Big ones are there, but you will work for it. I've had both of these archery hunts in the past few years and those are crowded as well. Been disappointed since they added 25 more archery tags in 5BN a few years back. 5A we run into people everywhere. Theres more areas to get off the roads in 5BS or 5BN. 5A is a tall narrow unit, roads everywhere.
 
Thanks everyone. Very good information for me to consider. Not ready to make a decision yet, but this will help me decide
 
23 non resident elk points. I have similar points in Colorado and may do Colorado and put Arizona on the back burner for a couple of years until I can have a better chance at a top tier. Just exploring all my options.
If you’re dead set on an early rifle tag I would try for 4b early rifle. You probably still won’t catch it but you’d be close. I don’t think you’ll be in the same zip code on any earlynrifle tags in the 5’s. It all depends on what you’re after. There’s a pretty good pile of people ahead of you so I’d say you’re 12-20 years out on “top tier” early rifle units. Essentially some folks have to get cold feet and burn points or die.
So I guess to answer your question, if you were to pull either early rifle tag in the 5’s you would by no means be wasting points. If you’re looking for true top end bulls, I’d draw late rifle in 23 and hire an outfitter. I did that this year and killed a 373” bull and had a great hunt. It would be a tough hunt to just show up and try to kill a big one especially from out of state but they’re there.
 
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675 tags on the late hunt in 5B, 339 for 5A. Both crowded late hunts. You could dig up a big bull somewhere but odds are more towards a 260-300 bull. Big ones are there, but you will work for it. I've had both of these archery hunts in the past few years and those are crowded as well. Been disappointed since they added 25 more archery tags in 5BN a few years back. 5A we run into people everywhere. Theres more areas to get off the roads in 5BS or 5BN. 5A is a tall narrow unit, roads everywhere.
Thanks for the info!
 
What did you decide? Regardless if you applied for AZ or CO, hope you kill a big 'un!
Decided to try for Colorado, and didnt draw my shoot for the moon choices in Arizona. Want to say I put in for 9 or 10 rifle. Decided I built so many points up, I'm holding out for a top tier unit.
 

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