68 third vs 66 second

[eyeguy]

Hi all,

Hard to predict point creep but I am hoping to cash in 8 NR deer points for either third season unit 68 or second season unit 66 this year.

Last year 6 points was good for second season 66 but 7 were needed for third season 68. I’m not sure if I’d get either with 8 points this year but would appreciate your input on which of those I might be more likely to draw?

Also, would appreciate your input in which of those tags would be better for a decent buck.

Thanks so much

 

[Muleyxtreme]

That's a hard question to answer. With point creep you may not draw 68 3rd season with only 8 points. 66 3rd season would take 3 points of creep to get ya as to where 68 would only take 2 pts to beat ya. Maybe safer going with 66 if ya want to draw this year. I'm cashing in with 10 points for 68 3rd season. If ya decide to put in for that tag and draw shoot me a message. Good luck

 

[map1]

Go for the third season hunt

 

[dihardhunter]

You may draw but dont be surprised if you are sitting at home.

 

[mrc]

I don’t think you could draw 66 2nd. With no point creep you would need 7 points. In 2015 3rd in 66 ended on Nov. 8th. In 2019 it ended on Nov. 10th. This year Nov. 7th. It’s not the old 2nd. season. Point creep will be more than 1 point.

 

[mrc]

In 2015 it took 14 points to guarantee a tag in 66 3rd. ending on Nov. 8th. Without any creep that would be twenty points this year to hunt 66 2nd. ending Nov.7th. How does my math seem? One day difference in the dates.

 

[Rodzilla_v]

Good luck deciding. I would think that his year is not a year not to put in hoping to get a tag by the skin of you teeth. You'll be sweating it until results come out. Anyone's guess what he odds will be, more jump on 3rd season hunts likely (aim not an expert). would think premium units (including 2nd season premium units) will go up at least 2-4 points). Just a guess. If I had 8 points, and really wanted to hunt this year, I would be eyeing units that took 4-5 last year. Just my thoughts.

 

[eyeguy]

In 2015 it took 14 points to guarantee a tag in 66 3rd. ending on Nov. 8th. Without any creep that would be twenty points this year to hunt 66 2nd. ending Nov.7th. How does my math seem? One day difference in the dates.

I appreciate your thoughts MRC and Rodzilla. Point creep is a real thing for sure and hard to predict. I do think a lot wanted to draw the late dates last year as well before the “onslaught” of later tags - hard to predict creep. . . Will be interesting to see after the draw.

Good luck to you all and thanks for your input!

 

[Conrad8899]

My opinion is it will take double digit points to draw 66 2nd season this year and around 8 or 9 for 68 3rd season... But the kicker is will CP&W raise the tag numbers and how many and what season will the tags go to???

 

[yeff2]

I have a feeling more tags will go towards the second season. I would guess that they know the vulnerability of bucks in the later seasons so tags may get re-allotted around to the second season. Just taking a guess at it....

 

[Nev638]

I applied for 66 2nd season this year with 11 NR points. To be honest I’m not really planning on drawing. I’ve talked with 7 or 8 people who have 12-20 points who applied for 66 2nd season this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if it jumps from 7 points to 15 points this year.

 

[eyeguy]

I applied for 66 2nd season this year with 11 NR points. To be honest I’m not really planning on drawing. I’ve talked with 7 or 8 people who have 12-20 points who applied for 66 2nd season this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if it jumps from 7 points to 15 points this year.

That’s crazy! I would guess you’d be pretty safe with 11 points. Good luck!

 

[Founder]

I applied for 66 2nd season this year with 11 NR points. To be honest I’m not really planning on drawing. I’ve talked with 7 or 8 people who have 12-20 points who applied for 66 2nd season this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if it jumps from 7 points to 15 points this year.

Wow!! I’d be blown away if it jumped to 15.

 

[mrc]

In 2015 you had a 50% chance to draw 66 with 14 points to be able to hunt until Nov. 8th. In 2019 you needed to have 17 points to hunt 66 to Nov.10th. If you drew 66 with 15 points in 2021 and could hunt until Nov 7th. Which of those hunts is the most unreasonable? Don’t worry about calling it 2nd or 3rd season.

 

[Extrapale]

OP, I don't think you will draw either tag with 8. 66 2nd would be my preference of the two.

 

[Sako300rum]

Wouldn’t the odds be different from 2nd to 3rd season based off how many tags were issued for the second and the third season? I see your point about it took double digits to draw 3rd season tags in 2015 but wasn’t there less then 1/2 to 3/4 the tag amounts issued for the 3rd? I assume tag allocations will be somewhat close? I can’t see a 7-8 point jump on second seasons even with later dates. There’s more tags in general to be drawn for 2nd then 3rd.

 

[mrc]

I see 48 people that put in for 66 3rd. last year with 14 to 19 points that didn’t draw.This year they’ll have 15 to 20 points with no chance to draw 66 3rd. Probably can’t draw 67 3rd. 60 people that did not draw 67 3rd. will have 15 to 17 points. That’s 108 people with more than 15 points that can’t draw 66 or 67 3rd. A lot of them will be looking at second season ending Nov. 7th.

 

[Sako300rum]

Correct if all apply for the same hunt. But some might want to take advantage of the 3rd season in the Gunnison and apply for perhaps a 55 3rd, 54 3rd, 53 3rd. Units taking 12-14 points last year. Remember, a lot of publicity is pushing 3rd Season with later dates and better rutting for more chance of weather in Colorado. Hell they might increase 2nd season tags as well!

 

[accubond]

Correct if all apply for the same hunt. But some might want to take advantage of the 3rd season in the Gunnison and apply for perhaps a 55 3rd, 54 3rd, 53 3rd. Units taking 12-14 points last year. Remember, a lot of publicity is pushing 3rd Season with later dates and better rutting for more chance of weather in Colorado. Hell they might increase 2nd season tags as well!

It sounds like they're adding tags to 2nd season this year in the Gunnison units which will help some with the creep but also take away from the quality of the hunt. 3rd season will be much higher quality in most units and if I had a ton of points I'd be looking at a "lesser" unit 3rd season vs a "better" unit 2nd.

 

[mrc]

Correct if all apply for the same hunt. But some might want to take advantage of the 3rd season in the Gunnison and apply for perhaps a 55 3rd, 54 3rd, 53 3rd. Units taking 12-14 points last year. Remember, a lot of publicity is pushing 3rd Season with later dates and better rutting for more chance of weather in Colorado. Hell they might increase 2nd season tags as well!

I agree with you. I just think there are enough people in that 15 to 20 point range to shift to all those hunts to increase the points needed for all those hunts. How many tags this year is the wild card.

 

[wweaver79]

If it’s not to late.....With 8 points you need to be looking elsewhere than 66nd or 68 3rd or you will sitting.
Maybe 68 2nd and pray for weather, buy an otc bull tag, get there early and really get after it. Units 4 or 5 maybe also.