90/10 Didn’t Help ?

Congrats to those that drew! It will be interesting to see how many points it took to draw a NR ram tag... I am sure the F&G website will post the draw odds soon. Happy Hunting!
 
Nope. Sheep point 24. And my odds are worse now than applying for Desert Sheep in California. Which I never did because of the price vs. odds. In one fell swoop you go from having a 25% chance to draw the tag you spent your adult life building towards to absolutely no chance. Hopefully Sy’s grandkids got all their tags.
 
Steve Oz said:
Nope. Sheep point 24. And my odds are worse now than applying for Desert Sheep in California. Which I never did because of the price vs. odds. In one fell swoop you go from having a 25% chance to draw the tag you spent your adult life building towards to absolutely no chance. Hopefully Sy’s grandkids got all their tags.
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Bring on the rabbit hole,

Mark,
 
5yearcoueshunter said:
My 74 year old Dad got that tag as well! He burned his 20 points knowing he probably would never get a bull tag. Will be his first time hunting Moose, very happy. :)
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For NR, 38-4 had 3 tags. One person with 21 points and 2 with 20.
Best Bull odds were 20% chance with 21 points in unit 36. Every other unit took at least 22.
 
Steve Oz said:
Nope. Sheep point 24. And my odds are worse now than applying for Desert Sheep in California. Which I never did because of the price vs. odds. In one fell swoop you go from having a 25% chance to draw the tag you spent your adult life building towards to absolutely no chance. Hopefully Sy’s grandkids got all their tags.
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At 23 points, 4 other NRs in your cohort drew PP ram tags today. 6-12% odds as long as you didn't pick a high demand unit. Way better than CA sheep odds.

You're on the cusp - you might draw next year. Just gotta worry about guys coming off the sideline.

I thought Sy was on your side?

 
Not to be a downer, but how do you figure 6% to 12% odds. You can only see the number of 23 point applicants in those few units where the applicants were successful. What about all the other 23-point applicants in other units? The overall draw odds have to be much worse than 6%.

With the 4 NR bighorn permits drawn for holders of 23 preference points, 252 now move on to the points-only draw. And 61 potential NR applicants remain ahead of those with 24 to 28 points. It is correct that those with 23 points drew 4 bighorn permits this year, but for the 252 remaining, it hardly feels like “being on the cusp”, particularly given that the number of NR bighorn permits has been cut to an all-time low of only 17 (and I am sure there are some residents who rabidly covet even those).

Also, it remains perplexing that of the 3 non-residents with max-points of 28 (out of an original cohort of about 1,500 max-point holders when the points program began in 1995), none bothered to submit an application in 2023. What are they waiting for? They are not getting any younger, and if the past few years teaches us anything, it is that NR draw potential in the future will almost certainly be worse than it has been in the past, or even the scant present.

HT
 
HornedToad said:
Not to be a downer, but how do you figure 6% to 12% odds. You can only see the number of 23 point applicants in those few units where the applicants were successful. What about all the other 23-point applicants in other units? The overall draw odds have to be much worse than 6%.
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Your analysis is spot on. My language was sloppy.

It was not incredibly surprising the units 3, 4, 7 & 21 were the ones that the 23 PP guys snuck in on. They are all on the lower demand side. But yes, they could have gambled wrong and picked others that drew at 22 points in 2022. Hopefully the 23 point guys in 2023 were smart enough to pick lower demand units.

Those NRs with as many as 28 points knew that BP-squared failed in the legislature before the app modification deadline. So they knew they could safely sit out in 2023 and plan for 2024. Those not in nursing homes should wake up and come off the sidelines for 2024. It is completely possible that zero of those ~250 NRs with 24 points will draw in 2024. But they have a better chance than the CA ram analogy.
 
Crampy said:
At 23 points, 4 other NRs in your cohort drew PP ram tags today. 6-12% odds as long as you didn't pick a high demand unit. Way better than CA sheep odds.

You're on the cusp - you might draw next year. Just gotta worry about guys coming off the sideline.

I thought Sy was on your side?

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Sy has never been on my side. I’ve never wanted to use an outfitter. I obviously will not quit, but my original plan is not ever going to work now so will have to sharpen my pencil. Going to take a different approach and more boot grinding.
 
fullcry said:
I have a feeling some of those guys are building points for kids or grandkids.
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I began applying for my son for NR bighorn in 1998, when he was 14. He now has 26 points, and is 40. There remain 14 potential NR applicants ahead of him, and 30 equal to him. A few of those may fall away after the preference-point only draw. At the current pace, I hope he draws before he turns 60! At least he remains ahead of the 12,000+ NR with fewer points.

And Crampy…thanks for the information that BP-squared failed in the legislature. I had not seen that, but it is good news for those supporting Wyoming wildlife with 20+ years of points-buying!

HT
 
HornedToad said:
I began applying for my son for NR bighorn in 1998, when he was 14. He now has 26 points, and is 40. There remain 14 potential NR applicants ahead of him, and 30 equal to him.
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Wow, your son had 25 NR ram points for this AM's drawing?

He's still in an OK position, but you might want to consider bidding down to a lower quality tag next year. Evidently didn't bid down low enough today? Or bought points only?

You might be playing with fire if those other guys finally wake up.

You just found out today that BP-squared failed. There are probably more that a few of those asleep guys that don't yet realize that 90/10 on Big 5 passed...
 
Steve Oz said:
Sy has never been on my side. I’ve never wanted to use an outfitter. I obviously will not quit, but my original plan is not ever going to work now so will have to sharpen my pencil. Going to take a different approach and more boot grinding.
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I know it's strange to think, but Sy was on your side on this particular issue. Sy wanted WY NR ram allocation to remain at 25%.

If Sy and the outfitters had won that battle, you would have an NR ram tag in your pocket today.

Sy knows that the resident that got that ram tag instead of you is very unlikely to hire him. Especially in the wilderness units where the resident can go without Sy to babysit. An NR has to hire a guide so Sy wants the NR to have that tag instead.
 
Completely understood. I think of him as a politician. Corrupt and only looking to line his own pocket. At all times.
 
Crampy said:
I know it's strange to think, but Sy was on your side on this particular issue. Sy wanted WY NR ram allocation to remain at 25%.

If Sy and the outfitters had won that battle, you would have an NR ram tag in your pocket today.

Sy knows that the resident that got that ram tag instead of you is very unlikely to hire him. Especially in the wilderness units where the resident can go without Sy to babysit. An NR has to hire a guide so Sy wants the NR to have that tag instead.
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You're talking out your a$$ you obviously didn't pay attention to the task force meetings when this got recommended
 
Weird he voted yes there. Second name on that list

Screenshot_20230504_123215_Drive.jpg
 
Bookhead said:
And on top of that he's gonna end up selling you down the river for 90/10 on D/E/A soon enough
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And when he does that and it is not enough, because it is never enough, he will start taking away resident opportunities, give them to his rich clients, and continue to line his pockets at an ever increasing rate.

You reap what you sow…
 
Steve Oz said:
And when he does that and it is not enough, because it is never enough, he will start taking away resident opportunities, give them to his rich clients, and continue to line his pockets at an ever increasing rate.

You reap what you sow…
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The outfitters already have limited resident opportunities used to be a guy could knock on a few doors and have a place to hunt. That's no longer the case for most species in most areas
 
Bookhead said:
And on top of that he's gonna end up selling you down the river for 90/10 on D/E/A soon enough
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Correct, Sy absolutely will sell out DIY NRs in a heartbeat.

You are correct that Sy voted in favor of 90/10. It is important for committee such as the WWTF present unanimous votes to the legislature - the legislature is less likely to act on non-unanimous task force recommendation. Folks on those committees trade votes. That is how the sausage is made.

Sy believed he was capitulating on 90/10 on big 5 and that he would get a favorable votes later thrown his way in return for that compromise (specifically, he was trying to trade votes for his outfitter draw plan). He failed on that vote trade.

Sy and his outfitter buddies are receiving about 40% fewer phone calls TODAY from NR ram/moose tagholders that are forced to use an outfitter for wilderness rams and bull moose. If Sy could choose to have 25% NR ram allocation over 10% (as a single vote/issue), he would take those NR ram tag clients and their $10,000 outiftter fees.
 
I find it interesting that only 1 max PP resident put in for 38 moose and all 12 Rs at 1 less than max drew out this year.
 
SS! said:
I’m happy for all you guys that have tags but why is Wyoming giving out ewe tags? Guys won’t shoot doe pronghorn but let’s shoot ewe bighorn sheep? Based on WY sheep numbers I don t see anywhere that is doing exceptional.
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Exactly. Why not transplant them to areas that are stagnant and/or struggling. There is all kinds of money available to do that type stuff thru WSF, GSO at least.
 
SS! said:
I’m happy for all you guys that have tags but why is Wyoming giving out ewe tags? Guys won’t shoot doe pronghorn but let’s shoot ewe bighorn sheep? Based on WY sheep numbers I don t see anywhere that is doing exceptional.
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BINGO!!

Years ago was a lot of ewe tags for area 5. They wanted to get rid of some sheep up on Francs fork i think it was. Was so stupid to do that.
 
SS! said:
I’m happy for all you guys that have tags but why is Wyoming giving out ewe tags? Guys won’t shoot doe pronghorn but let’s shoot ewe bighorn sheep? Based on WY sheep numbers I don t see anywhere that is doing exceptional.
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I spoke to Katie Cheesbrough earlier this year about this and apparently the Ferris-Seminole herd was over objective and they were still working out an area to do a transfer. I was surprised on the amount of ewe tags, I thought it would be a handful.
 
Crampy said:
Sy and his outfitter buddies are receiving about 40% fewer phone calls TODAY from NR ram/moose tagholders that are forced to use an outfitter for wilderness rams and bull moose. If Sy could choose to have 25% NR ram allocation over 10% (as a single vote/issue), he would take those NR ram tag clients and their $10,000 outiftter fees.
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Poor Crampy, can't get anything right. Before 90/10 many outfitters were booking more resident than NR sheep hunters. Now I expect that won't change one bit.
 
SS! said:
I’m happy for all you guys that have tags but why is Wyoming giving out ewe tags? Guys won’t shoot doe pronghorn but let’s shoot ewe bighorn sheep? Based on WY sheep numbers I don t see anywhere that is doing exceptional.
Click to expand...
Here is the reason for unit 7 ewe tags. Historically, when that herd approaches 500 sheep they have huge pneumonia kills over winter. Theory on why is 500 animals results in lower fat levels which then in turn lowers the sheep's ability to fend off pneumonia. That herd is just about at 500 animals so last season they issued some ewe tags to try to keep the herd closer to 450. Turns out, not very many people filled those ewe tags last year. So this year they extended the season dates and added more tags since it really didn't lower the pop much.
 
jm77 said:
Poor Crampy, can't get anything right. Before 90/10 many outfitters were booking more resident than NR sheep hunters. Now I expect that won't change one bit.
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Sure, in raw numbers an outfitter could have a higher raw quantity of resident ram clients than NR clients. Because there were 3x as many resident ram tags as NR. Since 2023, there are now 9x as many resident ram tags as NR ram tags.

An NR ram tag holder is MUCH more likely to hire Sy than a resident ram tag holder. Wealth, travel time, local knowledge and NR wilderness ban - these are just some of the reasons why that is true. For that reason, Wyoming outfitters absolutely prefer the old 25% NR ram allocation over 10%.

This might also be helpful in explaining "Rates" vs "Raw Numbers".
 
mulecreek said:
Here is the reason for unit 7 ewe tags. Historically, when that herd approaches 500 sheep they have huge pneumonia kills over winter. Theory on why is 500 animals results in lower fat levels which then in turn lowers the sheep's ability to fend off pneumonia. That herd is just about at 500 animals so last season they issued some ewe tags to try to keep the herd closer to 450. Turns out, not very many people filled those ewe tags last year. So this year they extended the season dates and added more tags since it really didn't lower the pop much.
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Thanks for the info. I figured someone had the details on it. Sucks so few sheep is all the land can hold these days when there used to be thousands and thousands
 
Crampy said:
Sure, in raw numbers an outfitter could have a higher raw quantity of resident ram clients than NR clients. Because there were 3x as many resident ram tags as NR. Since 2023, there are now 9x as many resident ram tags as NR ram tags.

An NR ram tag holder is MUCH more likely to hire Sy than a resident ram tag holder. Wealth, travel time, local knowledge and NR wilderness ban - these are just some of the reasons why that is true. For that reason, Wyoming outfitters absolutely prefer the old 25% NR ram allocation over 10%.

This might also be helpful in explaining "Rates" vs "Raw Numbers".
Click to expand...
3x as many, 9x as many :ROFLMAO: Nice try, but no. With 75/25 NR got two tags out of 10. Now they get 1 tag out of 10 and with OIL in place, very few residents will tackle a sheep hunt out west.

Outfitters will be just fine, if not better. Ask some of them; I have.
 
HornedToad said:
I began applying for my son for NR bighorn in 1998, when he was 14. He now has 26 points, and is 40. There remain 14 potential NR applicants ahead of him, and 30 equal to him. A few of those may fall away after the preference-point only draw. At the current pace, I hope he draws before he turns 60! At least he remains ahead of the 12,000+ NR with fewer points.

And Crampy…thanks for the information that BP-squared failed in the legislature. I had not seen that, but it is good news for those supporting Wyoming wildlife with 20+ years of points-buying!

HT
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Looks like he should have been hunting at 40 and not even worrying about 60. Nothing is guaranteed so gotta go when ya can IMO. I pulled the trigger on my sheep soon as it looked like I could, while there was other units I wanted I went where I could and it worked out great !!
Kudos to you for getting points ahead of time !!
IMG_2283.png
 
nfh said:
90/10 is helping out the youth. A freind of mine has a 12 year old and 11 year old. The 11 year old will be 12 by hunting season. One kid got a mnt goat tag and the other got a bighorn sheep tag.
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Now that’s good stuff, but the one kid probably took my goat tag ?, Hope they do well , should be heck of a fall !!
 
The outfitters have been and are the only advocate the NR hunter has ever had in WY, anyone too dumb to see that should refrain from comment. and more residents go with guides than NR's ? gee, do you think that might be because they got 3/4 of the tags and now 90% ? duh . but look at the percentages if you want the real story.

Of course the love from the outfitters is self serving, duh again. and when the outfitters lost the 75/25 battle most NR hunters lost their chances of ever drawing. so who's your friend now ? I don't bite the hand that fed me .

This whole thing is a joke I've drawn my moose and sheep and I'm out this has become a suckers bet.
 
Togwotee said:
The outfitters have been and are the only advocate the NR hunter has ever had in WY, anyone too dumb to see that should refrain from comment. and more residents go with guides than NR's ? gee, do you think that might be because they got 3/4 of the tags and now 90% ? duh . but look at the percentages if you want the real story.

Of course the love from the outfitters is self serving, duh again. and when the outfitters lost the 75/25 battle most NR hunters lost their chances of ever drawing. so who's your friend now ? I don't bite the hand that fed me .

This whole thing is a joke I've drawn my moose and sheep and I'm out this has become a suckers bet.
Click to expand...
What pissed you off, the kids drawing tags at 90/10 or the outfitter sending letters comment?
 
Togwotee said:
The outfitters have been and are the only advocate the NR hunter has ever had in WY, anyone too dumb to see that should refrain from comment. and more residents go with guides than NR's ? gee, do you think that might be because they got 3/4 of the tags and now 90% ? duh . but look at the percentages if you want the real story.

Of course the love from the outfitters is self serving, duh again. and when the outfitters lost the 75/25 battle most NR hunters lost their chances of ever drawing. so who's your friend now ? I don't bite the hand that fed me .

This whole thing is a joke I've drawn my moose and sheep and I'm out this has become a suckers bet.
Click to expand...
You back in the bottle again....wait you never stopped.
 

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