A little expo odds math - we should all be in vegas!

dryflyelk

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after another unsuccessful donation to the Don Peay scholarship fund (ie, expo tags), I had a thought. The odds have been posted so I did a little math.

For bull elk, there were a total of 197,774 $5 entries. If you put in for all the bull elk tags (39 I believe), it would cost you $195. Considering several of the areas had multiple tags (91 tags total), odds of drawing one of those elk tags would be 1 in 2,173.

Say that instead of going to the expo, you took that $200 (rounded up for easy math) and put it on a single number on a standard double 0 roulette table. Odds of hitting that right are 1 in 38. Say you get lucky and hit that number - you'd win $7,000. (35X your bet)

This is where it gets fun. Let's say you want to press your luck and let that $7k ride on that number and try to hit it twice in a row. Today's your day and you got lucky again! Boom. You'd win a cool $245,000.

Odds of that happening are 1 in 1,144 (1/38 X 1/38) - so about twice as likely as drawing an elk tag at the expo, which was 1 in 2,173.

I imagine you could buy some pretty sweet elk hunts for $245,000.

Odds on deer are even longer - 1 in 2,480.
 
Worst odds in the country. Would be even worse if you accounted for how mid quality some of those elk tags are.

Better be applying for every other quality tag in the country (states and raffles). Then, if you still have money left over, play this Don Peay Expo raffle.

Aside - why do I keep hearing the expo tags come mostly out of the NR allocation in Utah? Aren't these tags just taken off the top? (So essentially 90% out of res allocation and 10% out of NR allocation)?
 
Man I sure wish everyone would take your advice.

Hell, everyone should just quit putting in for the draws too, odds of drawing most tags are really bad. Better off taking your money to Vegas. Don't even bother guys, just give it up and go buy a tag somewhere.
 
I know people who drive 500 miles, round trip, to drive to Arizona or Colorado to buy a $2.00 Powerball raffle gamble.

The odds are:
The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot by matching all numbers with the five white balls and red Powerball drawn are 1 in 292,201,338, according to the lottery as of Jan 14, 2023.

People do crazy things when it comes to hopes, dreams and entertainment. JakeH is right………. With odds going up every year………. the number of people with hunting hopes, dreams, and entertainment interests keeps increasing every year. As big game populations continue to decline and demand for tags continue to increase I’m guessing raffle odds will continue to increase as well. It’s hand to raffle goods and services that are in large supply.
 
My son did something similar at the Kentucky Derby a few years back. Picked the Trifecta with his girlfriend, and won $9000. Pressed it for the Preakness and ended up winning $45,000. He chickened out for the last race (Belmont??), and would have made it $245K.

I bought $15 worth of PowerBall on Wed., and won $16 back. That one dollar interest is better than I make at the bank!!! :)
 
My son did something similar at the Kentucky Derby a few years back. Picked the Trifecta with his girlfriend, and won $9000. Pressed it for the Preakness and ended up winning $45,000. He chickened out for the last race (Belmont??), and would have made it $245K.

I bought $15 worth of PowerBall on Wed., and won $16 back. That one dollar interest is better than I make at the bank!!! :)
Maybe the Expo could have a similar system where the jackpot winner gets the back straps and lesser winners, get hind quarters, then front quarters and the last winners gets the ribs. I’ll ask Slam Dunk if he would sell the idea to MDF folks. Reduce the odds…… concept. More guys would get something for there $5.
 
after another unsuccessful donation to the Don Peay scholarship fund (ie, expo tags), I had a thought. The odds have been posted so I did a little math.

For bull elk, there were a total of 197,774 $5 entries. If you put in for all the bull elk tags (39 I believe), it would cost you $195. Considering several of the areas had multiple tags (91 tags total), odds of drawing one of those elk tags would be 1 in 2,173.

Say that instead of going to the expo, you took that $200 (rounded up for easy math) and put it on a single number on a standard double 0 roulette table. Odds of hitting that right are 1 in 38. Say you get lucky and hit that number - you'd win $7,000. (35X your bet)

This is where it gets fun. Let's say you want to press your luck and let that $7k ride on that number and try to hit it twice in a row. Today's your day and you got lucky again! Boom. You'd win a cool $245,000.

Odds of that happening are 1 in 1,144 (1/38 X 1/38) - so about twice as likely as drawing an elk tag at the expo, which was 1 in 2,173.

I imagine you could buy some pretty sweet elk hunts for $245,000.

Odds on deer are even longer - 1 in 2,480.
What a party pooper you are!! :ROFLMAO: ;)
 
What’s the odds of drawing a Utah Rocky and a Nevada desert ram tags the same year. And a Colorado Mtn Goat tag the following year. ???
Unbelievable things can happen.
 
wouldn't the odds be lower based on how many people entered and not based on total entry, there would have been multiple entries per person.
 
Yah butt. The guy that spent $725,000 in the auction coulda had 145,000 entries for that amount. What woulda his odds been?
 
Not this year, but several years back, I drew a Henry's Bison tag. The next year my dad drew a Nebo Elk tag. I am really glad that they did not have the odds posted at the time :rolleyes:
 
So is the Salt Palace able to hold close to 400k people?
Because you have to be there to win Correct? so how do they do that?
 
So is the Salt Palace able to hold close to 400k people?
Because you have to be there to win Correct? so how do they do that?
Where are you getting 400,000 people?

The rough estimate is 55-60,000 people attended the expo over 4 days.

You don't have to be at the drawing in person, you just have to validate in person at the Expo. They do the draw the following week.
 
Where are you getting 400,000 people?

The rough estimate is 55-60,000 people attended the expo over 4 days.

You don't have to be at the drawing in person, you just have to validate in person at the Expo. They do the draw the following week.
400,000 people? Is he assuming people only buy one raffle ticket each instead of 50-100?
 

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