Another Bonus Point/Draw Odd ?

GLEDEASY

Active Member
Messages
910
This may have been answered in other topics, but reading a post it got me wondering.

I believe I understand the point system and how it works in giving x amount of chances to receive a low number, but my question is how to use it looking at odds.

For example, my wife has 5 elk points plus this years application. So six chances for a low number, right? Looking at last years draw odds, should I then be looking at the six point pool or the five?

I've always looked at the pool with the current points I have (so in my ex. the 5 point pool) and not looking ahead for the current years app. I'm guessing that is the correct way, but it got me wondering.
 
You should be looking at the four point pool to figure her odds.

Last year she had 4, everyone that didn't draw (2014) now has 5..

True you do get the 'extra' number for the application.

But that dosn't count looking at draw odds.


4aec49a65c565954.jpg
 
+1

Unless she is close to max points for the hunt she wants (and with 5 points, she probably isn't), you should look at the odds for 4 points.

txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
 
I just have always taken a three year avg for a bonus tag and went from there, because we never beat the draw odds.

I guess that lowers her chances a bit from what I was thinking, but if not this year every year is getting closer!
 
Utah shows the odds within each pool but it's totally irrelevant and useless information... REALLY and FACTUALLY.
Unless you're in the "max for unit" points pool, the tags are drawn too randomly to come up with meaningful stats..... other than "lucky" if you draw.

Zeke
 
>Utah shows the odds within each
>pool but it's totally irrelevant
>and useless information... REALLY and
>FACTUALLY.
>
>Zeke
Somebody who didn't know squat about statistics probably set up the spreadsheet and they haven't bothered to update it to get rid of that worthless column.

NRA Life Member

"The critters have to win every time. I only have to win once!"
 
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