Apply in the draw

[BradA]

I applied this last weekend but I am curious Due to a conversation had. When applying for sheep or a species with low draw odds, would it be wiser with the current format of the draw to apply for units with less applications or units with a higher permit available in the unit?

 

[Padfoot]

Both.

it depends on ....
The unit potential
How many years you have to hunt
How many points you have
What kind of hunt you would be happy with
Etc....

 

[BradA]

I guess if I am 100 percent positive on how the draw is performed than I would know for sure how to answer my own question.

Everyone’s name goes in the hat and basically whoever gets picked up first will get one of there five choices so on until the unit fills up, or until you don’t have any available choices on your application than your application gets thrown away and move onto the next guy. It’s similar to the Idaho draw in the aspect of random draw but with bonus points so that you have more names in the hat to be one of the first to get picked. So therefore it would depend on how your mind works, you put in for a unit or units that have less applications but less tags in hope that you have less competition and get the tag before anyone else as well be one of the first couple people picked or the other mindset would be apply for units with the most available tags so that hopefully by the time you get picked there is still a tag leftover and hope your still one of the first few to randomly get picked. If I understand that correctly there is no wrong way to apply just a difference in the way you think.

 

[Padfoot]

There is a good write up on the NDOW website.
The way I understand in Nevada draw to work is that if you have 10 bonus points then your points are squared and that gives you 100 random numbers in the draw. The lowest of your 100 random numbers is what they use to determine what hurts you get. Your number is important relative to all the other numbers and is used for giving out tags for that species.

If you get a 10 as your Lowest number then after the applicants with the nine lower numbers have gotten their picks and assuming they had tags available in the units they selected on their application, then they got a tag. Your turn. Comes up and if there are no tags available in your first two choices but there are in your third choice then you get a tag in your third unit.
Everyone gets a random number and if you have no points you get one number assigned to you. If you have 20 bonus points you get 400 assigned to you. They use your lowest number to assign tags.

When there are several hundred guys with 2-10 points the probability of one of them getting a tag when there are only 2-5 tags goes up because of the shear number of applicants. That’s true even if you have max points in Nevada.

when you have 20 points for example your individual odds are very high but you need to think of the collective total of numbersin the pool.

 

[BradA]

Sounds like exactly what I was thinking. Thank you.

 

[ElmerFudd]

Nevada draw odds are tough to figure. They publish the number of applications as first choice and the successful draws regardless of choice. The bottom line is that real draw odds are probably a lot worse than they appear. I think you should work your way from your dream hunt as first choice through the easiest tag to draw that you would be good with as your fifth choice.

 

[BradA]

That’s basically what I did but any sheep hunt is a dream hunt when it comes to that species haha.

 

[Downrange]

If you want to see the real odds for Nevada go to toprut.com a really good resource for all the western states odds

 

[MuskegMan]

Are Toprut's odds much different than Huntin' Fools?

 

[downsouth]

Take a look at the 2019 August NV Wildlife Commission meeting archive. NV's contractor for the draw, Kalkomey, provided the Commission a detailed description of how the draw works and what I would consider a great Power Point presentation. The presentation is available in the archive, item 19E. It's worth looking at if you want to get a better understanding of NV's draw process, IMO.

 

[Ranger1]

In the same boat- look at the quality of rams, success percentage, ave days to bag, and if OK to DIY. Invested enough through the years want to have a good hunt and maybe a chance to do it with my bow. Good luck trying to make the decision of which units- usually go with Huntingfools top one but may not this year thinking maybe a few less put in due to job situation but doubt that will be much impact when talking sheep hunters.

 

[LivingTheDream]

With 5 choices it is extremely hard to determine draw odds. The squaring of points adds to the complication. I am hoping Nevada moves to 3 choices in the future, it will make it easier to compute odds but few sheep tags actually go to the 4th and 5th choice.

I do like the Nevada draw/points process the best of any of th western states though.

 

[buckhorn]

It’s really pretty easy to figure what the 2019 and previous years odds were.
It just takes the NDOW stats, some time and some math is all.
2020 odds may change a little but will probably follow the same trend as the past five years.
There are some proposed tag increases and cuts that will affect the upcoming years odds some but those changes can be projected into figuring the 2020 odds.
I am waiting and I think the final quotas will be set before the deadline. I will re-run all the numbers before I make my final choices for my applications.
Good Luck in the draw!