Are draws really random???

grizzly · Jun 20, 2012

I was watching Modern Marvels the other night and they were focusing on gambling devices. They got into people that programmed the computers that run slot machines and how the programmers can cheat them (and have done so successfully).

Modern Marvels interviewed a programmer that got caught telling his buddies how to cheat slot machines and he said that it is impossible to have a truly random draw from a computer. He said that they only read "0" and "1" in various forms, but can't create their own intelligence or generate information. (Slot machines use what is called a pseudo-random number generator (PRNG), which approximates the properties of random numbers, but is not truly random- wikipedia).

Basically, for you computer whiz's out there...

If it is true that slot machines aren't random, how can it be different for hunting draws? Are they truly random? If not, does it matter?

Grizzly

chewyman55 · Jun 20, 2012

Apparently, there is a "0" assigned to my name because all I ever draw is stuff that I'm statistically guaranteed (as in MAX points). I'm starting to wonder if I got blacklisted by G&F for some reason.

c86man3 · Jun 20, 2012

Random numbers are generated using equations. The equations take a beginning number (known as a 'seed') to input into the equation. Then the process is run in an iterative process until the desired number of "random" numbers have been output. There are different equations to generate these random numbers. Some are more "random" than others. But as far as I know, they are all pseudo random numbers since if you know the 'seed', then you know the output.

They get pretty complicated. For instance, they could take a seed (let's say the time in binary form) and run it through a random number generator and produce a value. Then take that output and plug it into a different random number generator with a different equation.

SO, long story short, they are pseudo-random numbers, but you aren't going to be able to game the system. At least not in regards to hunting tags.

delmag1942 · Jun 20, 2012

Either way I hope they continue (In my case). Can't wait to see what I will be able to draw when I get to maximum somewhere.

desertpointbrian · Jun 20, 2012

makes you wonder sometimes. although i have been pretty lucky compared to others i know. i have a buddy with 13 elk points puts in for the wasatch every year and gets nothing every year. i drew it with 5 my wife drew with 1 you never know i guess

swbuckmaster · Jun 20, 2012

I think the system is rigged to favor some family names more than others. Not saying the people that draw cheat the system but I think the system is some how flawed. I know several families that seem to draw every year or every other year. They draw elk tags, deer tags, oil tags, ect. They draw with few to zero points and I always take everything to the max. In fact no one in my family has ever draw a big game tag except my wife and she had max points for the unit when she drew.

anyone out there with more then 12 archery deer points?

azbow · Jun 21, 2012

I think that the way that they program you into the draw the first time and the numbers that you get at that time are what you get stuck with from then on, year after year. I don't believe that they reprogram every single person all over again with new info and thus getting fresh numbers, every year. Take to much time. Some lucky people have good numbers that help the draw tags very often, almost yearly. Seems like the only tags that I get are when my bonus pts get me to the top and I earn the tag, not draw it. Just my opinion, but I have seen it working like this year after year.
What do you guys think?

ICMDEER · Jun 21, 2012

I have always believed and always will believe the Wyoming draw is rigged. Too many G&F people and their family/friends draw when odds would not indicate that's a probable outcome. For example, I put in for antelope in one area for 15 years without drawing, when the chosen ones drew far more often than odds would indicate. That just can't happen in a random statistical program. I feel like the corrrect people are programmed into the winning numbers in some instances and others are left in the remainder of the pool, which may then be somewhat random.

I also feel this is why Wyoming Game and Fish is staunchly opposed to going to some sort of preference point system. If there were preference points for residents, or points for goats, those of us that have applied for 40 years would have a good chance of drawing. As it is is, I'm still at the mercy of a biased system.

And I'm not a conspiracy theory guy. I've jst seen this happen for so many decades it seems impossible that the draw is truly random.

Triple_BB · Jun 21, 2012

Did a couples thing one time and one guy who was there happened to be a supervisor with the G&F. After we were getting liqoured up, I asked him some questions about the draw and if there was anything I could do to improve my odds. He said who knows. He said they hired an out of state firm to design and build the program and system they use. At that time he said they didn't have anyone in the dept that knew anything about how it worked and whenever they had problems they were always having to bring that firms people in to fix it. He said it was a total cluster the way they did it.

highcountryfever · Jun 21, 2012

>I think the system is rigged
>to favor some family names
>more than others.

Aw, don't be jealous Scott!

mulecreek · Jun 21, 2012

Cracks me up that some state they believe it is a conspiracy from the G&F then the next sentence state that they are not a conspiracy theory guy. I am also curious which numbers are the lucky ones? 13? 7? 3984729487346? Also, someone getting drawn multiple years in a row and others never getting drawn is the definition of random. If you can predict when you will get drawn then its not random, it's predictable.

I do agree with Tripple BB that there are problems that come up from time to time. I have never seen a system for anything, ever, that worked perfectly all the time. But I doubt it's intentional.

TOPGUN · Jun 21, 2012

+1 mulecreek

BowCephus · Jun 22, 2012

Just to throw another factor into the mix, what about donations? I knew a guy that had put in for years with no luck, makes a one dollar donation and draws. So the next year I figure, what the heck. Fill out the app. and make a dollar donation. What do ya know, successful on the Manti early with 3 points. Haven't drawn anything since then, with or without donations though. Makes you wonder??

dreaminbouthuntin · Jun 22, 2012

I have donated and NEVER drawn when i did. I stop donating and hey.. drawn. Idk. I dont like it, but what can ya do.

chewyman55 · Jun 22, 2012

I'm sure it's on the up and up...at least in Wyoming. Most of those boys aren't techy enough to rig it if they wanted to

I think I'm just cursed.

nickman · Jun 22, 2012

Once again, common sense would dictate that ...."if more than 1 person knows a secret, it won't be a secret for long".

That said, someone would have already spilled the beans on anything underhanded, long ago.

Some people are simply luckier than others. That is how the world works.

This week, I got a call from a hunter who drew 1 of 2 available tags in 2010. He drew the same one again this week.

Basically, he had a 1 in 4,000 shot and hit it twice in 3 years. Go figure.

"I could eat a bowl of Alphabet Soup and
sh!t a better argument than that!"

tylercreek2 · Jun 22, 2012

867-5309

thats the lucky number lol

tagsoup · Jun 24, 2012

Well said mulecreek.

"Go hunt for meat at Wall Mart."

TOPGUN · Jun 24, 2012

My buddy in Sheridan is about like that guy Nickman just mentioned. John put in for a OIL Shiras tag in Idaho in a unit that only had one NR tag and drew it on his first try in 2007! Then he drew tags for archery elk in AZ and rifle mulies in NM last year. This year he hasn't drawn any NR tags, but last week in the Wyoming draw he got his first choice LE bull, deer, and antelope tags, as well as a cow tag. He and his Dad have also won several nice rifles in the RMEF and other organization raffles, so it's like Nickman said. Some friggin guys are just outright lucky and others are snakebit!

swbuckmaster · Jun 24, 2012

>>I think the system is rigged
>>to favor some family names
>>more than others.
>
>Aw, don't be jealous Scott!

Lol you prolly found a way to pick the system. We both know you can see through a key hole with both eyes at the same time. Lol
good luck on your hunt. The division has to give me a tag next year!

nontypical · Jun 25, 2012

Same people consistently draw tags,while others rarely,if ever,do.Therefore,"random" drawings are NOT FAIR.They favor the lucky few,while casting aside the unlucky many.No wonder so many people favor point systems.Those who oppose point systems are the lucky guys that draw tags all the time.Odds are just a number,and really don't seem to mean much.
I had an argument a few years back with a guy on here.I claimed that 20% odds means you should draw that tag once every 5 yrs.10% odds means you should draw that tag once every 10 yrs.He claimed that wasn't the way odds work.If you flip a coin 100 times,shouldn't it come up heads 50% of the time and tails the other 50%??
Most point systems are flawed,and keep newcomers from being able to draw;especially preference point systems.I hate Wyoming's preference point system for sheep and moose and goats.But I also hate never drawing a tag in my home state for deer or elk,while the same people always draw.I will hunt Nevada,Iowa,and Colorado;even Arizona more often than I draw in Wyoming.Call me a crybaby or whatever you want.I really don't care.IMO,the "random" draw system in Wyoming SUCKS.

Outdoors · Jun 27, 2012

Jenny took her phone off the hook, it seems.

TOPGUN · Jun 27, 2012

nontypical---I believe the guy you had the argument with was correct. In the examples you gave that is the odds for one year and one time only. Each year you would have a 1 in 5 or 1 in 10 chance to draw in that particular year, but that doesn't mean you will draw it every five or ten years if you keep applying like your contention is.