Colorado point creep

lostinOregon

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I have always taken an interest in numbers and draw odds. I watch folks every year on draw day telling me what tags they are going to draw, with me knowing good and well they will get beat by point creep. I find it also interesting that the publications all vie for the most "accurate draw odds" you can find. The draw odds that happened last year have absolutely no effect on this years draw. It can give you a good starting point, however it is not what you need to pay attention to. I have thought of starting a website based draw odds site, focusing on what it takes to draw this year, not last year. There are several factors that I look at, some of these include media attention to a unit, you-tube, and major hunting publications. This year is Colorado has been touted as the best dates ever for deer seasons. Founder asked me why I thought there will be point creep in Colorado this year. I answered him in a post, but thought I would give my reasoning with numbers also. I think it will be the worst we have seen due to all of the above factors. I have decided to break down unit number 66 2nd season for this post, because it is a popular choice and a very publicized unit.

In 2020, there was an increase of tags available to NR in unit 66. The tag increases were not allotted across the board evenly through all seasons. 3rd and 4th seasons had a reduction of tags, while the surplus tags were added to 2nd season. I believe this reduction in 3rd and 4th was due to the late season dates, with biologists making recommendations to slow the kill on mature deer.

In 2020 there were a total of 49 available non resident tags, up from 36 tags the previous year. These 49 tags were drawn from NR's who had 18 points down to 6 points. The most tags were issued to applicants with 6 points (10) for a 100 percent draw rate for 6 points and above for NR. Applications increased from 131 to 158 from the previous year. This season continues to receive more applications, and even with a substantial increase in tags, it still required 6 points to draw in 2020, as it did in 2019. The highest point applicant for 2nd season in 2019 was 14, and in 2020 it was 18, which showed people jumping in this with a very high point total (12 more than required).

The NR ability to draw a 3rd season tag is also a factor in 2nd season climbing in points required. In 2019 there were 15 tags issued to NR during 3rd season. In 2020 the tags issued were reduced to 12 tags. In 2019 tags were issued to NR in the 3rd season with 20 points through 17 points. In 2020 tags were issued to NR in the 3rd season with 23 points through 20 points, with 1 out of seven with 19 points drawing a tag. As you can see, the amount of points required to draw the 3rd season tag had continued to increase, while at the same time the availability of the tags is being reduced. That was a 3 point increase for 3rd season tags last year without the benefits of the later seasons this year. If you do not have at least 20 plus points, you won't draw a 3rd season tag in the near future. This puts people in no mans land, and with the late dates of 2nd season, I believe you will see a significant shift to 2nd season for the 2021 season.

The number of people with a high number of points is staggering. There are 181 NR's with 25 points or more. There are 1,162 NR with 20 to 24 points. There are 8,984 NR's with 10 to 19 points. The last group is the group that I expect to jump into the game this year realizing that they can't catch the 3rd seasons hunts and with the dates of 2nd, being the old dates of 3rd, cashing in their points.

I expect the 66 2nd season to jump at a minimum 3 points for a non resident to draw a 2nd season tag. I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the 4-5 point range. I guess at this point all I can do is sit and watch, hoping I am wrong.

Rich
 
Thanks lostinOregon, you did your homework . I think you are right on on your calculations but I think it will be Evan be a little more creep, with everyone crying the sky is falling.
 
Good work Rich.
I also spend a lot of time studying the numbers and observing the attention hunts are getting.
Third and second seasons I believe will get a large increase in applicants.
For a high point holder this may be a good year to apply for a fourth season in my opinion.
Also with thanksgiving in the fourth seasons a lot of applicants might stay away from that.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 2-3 point jump for 66 2nd, but I would be surprised to see a 4-5 point jump.

I believe there’s a chunk of folks out there who bounce from one hunt to another based on hype and what magazines and such suggest. But there’s also a good chunk of people who have a unit or two they’re familiar with and they apply for that unit. Many hunters don’t feel all that comfortable trying new places they’ve never been.

A good example is all the applicants who have 0-10 points who apply for hunts that currently take 15-20 to draw. Look at a 44 4th and all those people with 0-15 points applying. Why would they apply for a tag that takes 24 points when they have two? The reason is because they aren’t in any hurry to go hunt, or they have no idea how tags are distributed, or they don’t care, or 44 is where they’ve hunted before and don’t feel comfortable straying from there, or a magazine said to apply there and they do it without knowing they’ll NEVER draw it.

I also think a lot of people view points just as they would money and they have a real hang up spending 15 points on unit that only cost people 11 last year. Many people want to get their “points worth” on a hunt.

You might very well be right with a huge point jump, but I don’t think it’ll be real huge. On a normal year without the crazy late dates you’d probably see about a 1 point jump anyway, so to see 2-3 this year on some hunts wouldn’t be shocking, but 5 would really surprise me.

I also still believe there are a lot of point holders who’ve been buying points for many years who haven’t a plan, who may not want to go hunt alone, who maybe have never hunted Colorado, and who may continue to put it on hold as they’ve possibly done for 20 years.

Buying points every year is easy, actually loading up and going on a hunting trip in a place you’ve never been, maybe lacking the gear you really need, or the time and money to do it is another thing. You know what I mean?

You ought to crunch numbers on region G and H for this year and let me know what you think. :) I’ve been working that one to see where I’m at there. ha ha

It’ll be interesting to see how it all goes. I’m hoping everyone with 18 plus points will apply for hunts that have required far fewer points in the past, then next year I’ll have more points that everyone and get to pick whatever hunt I want. :) I’m routing for what you’re predicting and more. Everyone with 17 plus, burn them on anything, even a 3 point hunt!!!! This IS the year. Ha ha
 
I applied for a 7/8 point hunt with 12 points. Founder is 100% right when he says everyone wants value out of their points. There are only 7 NR tags for the unit that I applied for so it will not take many new applicants to see a large jump in points
 
Many list their 1st choice as their first choice rather than putting the pp code in, then draw their second choice while gaining a point. Just another possibility.
 
I agree with your research. Looking ahead to 2022, points likely will drop from 2021 levels but still above 2020 numbers.
 
I agree 66 second will have a lot of creep. Same with 44 second. But something like 35 second might have zero creep because of tag numbers. Overall I would expect average creep to not be that much because the bulk of the tags are in super low point units. Popular units and low tag hunts will have a lot of creep. Unit clusters like 18, 35, etc won't have much creep. And since the majority of tags are in units like that average creep won't be that horrible.

And who knows what bio's are going to do? If they want to get rid of older bucks because of CWD I could see them increasing 3rd and 4th season tags to get rid of the mature bucks. Which would obviously help with creep.

Its going to take more points for sure. But definitely depends on the unit, season, etc.
 
Tons of people put stock into certain magazines and hype... Eastmans Blue chipped unit 3 in Colorado... laughable advise at best... Point creep will be through the roof with all fingers pointing to the later dates and deer herd decline...

I'd bet there is a record number of applicants applying for deer hunts instead of points and tons of people burning them on lesser hunts...

Elk will likely increase slightly with the status quo...
 
There’s certainly a lot of speculation! Colo’s mule deer are in the hands of the cpw and how many tags they decide to issue each of the 3 rifle seasons. If they issue a bunch of late season tags it will be thin pickings for those that decide to wait! Every year will have fewer and fewer mature bucks available. If the cpw is smart and limit late season tags it may not matter much.

Until the cpw list tag numbers we all are just guessing
 
Founder,

Lets wager a friendly cheeseburger on it. If it is 3 or under you win. If it is 4 and over, I win. Last year it took 6 so you have 6-9 points, and I have 10 and over.

Bookheard,

I have never worried about being popular.

Sako76,

I better get prepared for an entire week of full moon and the crappy 3rd season hunting, because I will be there.

Rich
 
Lost--I will be there also, I am concerned about the full moon. Last year, I hunted on a CWMU permit in Utah at the end of September and beginning of August for elk during the full moon. Outfitter said the full moon wouldn't hurt the hunting. I saw three bulls the entire week of hunting and heard very few bugles, I ended up shooting a small 5x5 on the last day. I saw one mule deer the entire week, it was a monster. Good luck.
 
Deer don’t rut when there’s a full moon, it will be a terrible 3rd season. All high point holders are putting in for the second season, massive point creep.
 
Founder,

Lets wager a friendly cheeseburger on it. If it is 3 or under you win. If it is 4 and over, I win. Last year it took 6 so you have 6-9 points, and I have 10 and over.

Bookheard,

I have never worried about being popular.

Sako76,

I better get prepared for an entire week of full moon and the crappy 3rd season hunting, because I will be there.

Rich
If it took 6 last year it would be 7 this year. Anything above seven would be point creep. 7 to 10 and 11 and over.
 
Founder,

Lets wager a friendly cheeseburger on it. If it is 3 or under you win. If it is 4 and over, I win. Last year it took 6 so you have 6-9 points, and I have 10 and over.

Bookheard,

I have never worried about being popular.

Sako76,

I better get prepared for an entire week of full moon and the crappy 3rd season hunting, because I will be there.

Rich
Sounds good!
 
Talked to a person I trust who is in the know State wise and said CPW wants big bucks killed to slow down the spread of CWD. Said there could be a lot more tags issued late season
 
What do y'all think of unit 67 3rd season from what I hear it's way better than unit 55 right now but also takes about 5 more points... That being said it will probably take 18-19 points this year...
 
Talked to a person I trust who is in the know State wise and said CPW wants big bucks killed to slow down the spread of CWD. Said there could be a lot more tags issued late season
I recently listened to a podcast on Colorado deer hunting and their guest said deer hunting was the same or worse than it was the year prior to Colorado going to a draw system. A couple years of heavy pressure during November and there will be few bucks older than 3. The only wild card is how many hunters that draw tags are willing to eat tags, especially in these higher profile areas. CPW may want mature bucks killed, but will hunters willing to wait it out in area(s) that took a ton of pref. pts to draw shoot a run of the mill 22-24" buck? It'd be a shame to see the bucks in these areas burned to the ground with a high amount of tag holders and late seasons, where the CWD prevalence is currently low.
 
I'm also hoping to be there on 3rd season. Jumping in with 18 points on a unit that took 14 last year for the wife. Hope she draws and we will go and have an awesome time!!!
 
CPW has already started issuing more tags in the CWD zones. Look at the NW corner, they have been issuing tons of tags up there.

Rich
 
Yep, more tags and later hunts to control CWD in the mature bucks. Couple more good years for deer hunting in Colorado left. After that it will take a dozen years to get it back to a decent deer state again. There will always be a few good units and a few great bucks taken each year.
 
I have viewed the dates in Colorado more for figuring out when migration will occur instead of looking at it for figuring out when the deer will rut. I have had some very good luck on 2nd season when the dates are early. Some big bucks are still high and usually by themselves.

The later the date, the more likely it is that the bigger bucks have moved through the dark timber areas out in to the more accessible lower ground. There have been second and third seasons where all the bucks are hung up in the dark timber. No weather with mild temps are usually the culprit for this. Its like they disappeared. Sooner or later weather and shorter days start pushing those deer to lower grounds. Just my opinion from hunting Colorado. I have hunted 3rd and 4th seasons and have never witnessed a rut fest like I have in other states like Montana.

Rich
 
I ended up applying last nite. Went for a 3rd season deer tag. Figuring on 2 pt minimum creep. Have 3 pts above what it took to draw last year. We'll see how bad it really is.
 
I'll get this party started. I applied for unit 67 2nd season with 8 NR points. What did everyone else go after with their points?

I think that I'll draw but I'm definitely worried.
 
I won't help either of you then...NR Unit 67 2nd season with 9 points. Creep, I'm telling you all, will be bonkers in those units where there is a massive gap between 2nd and 3rd season. I'm not all confident with 9 points.
 
I think a lot of us are going to get disappointed this year.

Did you all see in the stats how many guys that applied for points only last year? If only a fraction of those apply for a hunts this year point creep is going to go through the roof!
 
I won't help either of you then...NR Unit 67 2nd season with 9 points. Creep, I'm telling you all, will be bonkers in those units where there is a massive gap between 2nd and 3rd season. I'm not all confident with 9 points.
Yep! And talk about a big gap did you look at unit 54 between second and third?
 
I applied for unit 66 2nd season with 10 NR point. Felt confident a few months ago with my choice but with all the spotlights on certain units I’m planning on the usual Unsuccessful email from Colorado. Maybe next year but I will have plenty of hunting to do this fall with or without this tag in my pocket. Good luck to everyone.
 
I applied for unit 66 2nd season with 10 NR point. Felt confident a few months ago with my choice but with all the spotlights on certain units I’m planning on the usual Unsuccessful email from Colorado. Maybe next year but I will have plenty of hunting to do this fall with or without this tag in my pocket. Good luck to everyone.
I am in the same boat as you 10 NR points for 66 2nd. I am thinking it will take more points.
 
It took 3 res and 6 non res last year. You guys are in with 10 and some to spare.
 
I'm coming off the sidelines with my 4 points for a 2nd season Gunnison tag but I'm not holding my breath. I think I'm going to be left out in the cold. Figure my odds are probably less than 50%. Who knows though until tag numbers come out. I'm hoping 2nd season has less point creep or leap than 3rd!
 
13 NR points for 551 3rd. 100% drew w/10 pts last year. We'll see. I've got an AK Dall Sheep tag in my back pocket already <grin>
 
I also think a lot of people view points just as they would money and they have a real hang up spending 15 points on unit that only cost people 11 last year. Many people want to get their “points worth” on a hunt.

This is a very good explanation for the way many applicants think. Many guys don't want to "waste" their points and draw a tag for a unit that takes significantly less points than they have. Just because a tag takes more points to draw, doesn't make it a better hunt for you as an individual.

LostinOregon,

I think you are right on unit 66 2nd season taking 10 or more points this year. The season dates are a big factor but the demand for tags is also going to be higher across all western states this year. Arizona saw a big jump in applicants for elk a couple months ago. I think the increase is due to people wanting to get in the outdoors because of COVID and many people still have extra $$ that they can spend. If the economy tanks this year, it may take less points for 2022. The economy is going to have to correct sometime in the near future and that will have a bigger effect on point creep than anything else.
 
Probably going to be more disappointed guys after this fall, great dates and burned a pile of points with high expectations....the
CO quality buck/hunt ship has sailed.
 
I was looking at 66 2nd season with 9 NR points but quickly realized 9 wasnt going to make the cut jmo.... So I moved on to a 2 point unit 3rd season and through my wife in with her 4 points separate apps.. Fingers crossed the wife 4 points are enough...
 
U r not helping!!! Same tag w 5 pts! I hate u! Lol
Our group put in with 5 as well and my confidence is looking like Biden climbing a set of stairs. I have heard of several guys putting in with 6 to 10 points for 67. It sounds like all the Gunnison units are getting a tag increase, how many they increase will dictate if we draw or not IMO. If you would have told me a week ago that we could possibly see a 4+ point creep in a unit that had an 88% chance last year with 3 points I would say you're crazy but here we are...................
 
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I did 68 3rd with 10, took 7 last year - we will see how many tags they print off, hopefully it’s not similar to the US treasury right now. The later seasons alone will have more bucks killed without tag increases.
I got lucky in the random and have a damn good back up to start the season off, AZ 3c early archery bull tag. ?
 
Our group put in with 5 as well and my confidence is looking like Biden climbing a set of stairs. I have heard of several guys putting in with 6 to 10 points for 67. It sounds like all the Gunnison units are getting a tag increase, how many they increase will dictate if we draw or not IMO. If you would have told me a week ago that we could possibly see a 4+ point creep in a unit that had an 88% chance last year with 3 points I would say you're crazy but here we are...................
Well if u look at previous years there is always a few applicants that apply w 12 -9 pts. It has enough tags to absorb some high point holders just depends on how many applied
 
I have to wonder if there will be any gunnison archery and muzz tags on the leftover list with the huge focus on 2nd-4th tags. Feller mite get a sweet muzz tag for pennies on tha dollar.
 
One question that came up when applying.... aside from the Draw Recap reports, is there anywhere to look up the number of people that hold a certain number of points? Like a chart similar to the recap reports, but for all point holders in CO? I'm pretty sure the Recap reports only show the people who put in for tags that year, they don't show the people that are holding onto them. Can anyone confirm that?
 
One question that came up when applying.... aside from the Draw Recap reports, is there anywhere to look up the number of people that hold a certain number of points? Like a chart similar to the recap reports, but for all point holders in CO? I'm pretty sure the Recap reports only show the people who put in for tags that year, they don't show the people that are holding onto them. Can anyone confirm that?
The first page of the recap shows all applications received and at what point level. It doesn't show those who may have chosen to sit out the draw.
 
I am in the same boat as you 10 NR points for 66 2nd. I am thinking it will take more points.
There were 36 tags given last year to point holders with less than 10. If you don't get a tag the point creep will have to be at least 5. If more tags are issued, then who knows...
 
Glad to see most of the attention here is on the Gunnison Basin. I did unit 6 3rd season with 12 points. Last year it took 8 points to be guaranteed a tag so I like my chances. Still there are only 7 NR tags so it will not take much to see significant point creep.
 
One question that came up when applying.... aside from the Draw Recap reports, is there anywhere to look up the number of people that hold a certain number of points? Like a chart similar to the recap reports, but for all point holders in CO? I'm pretty sure the Recap reports only show the people who put in for tags that year, they don't show the people that are holding onto them. Can anyone confirm that?
And the very last page on the draw recap report shows all the applicants that applied for preference points only for that year.
Crazy how many are on that list!
 
I got three inquiries this year on 6th 3rd season. I have never had anyone ask me about this tag before this year. I don't know a thing about it.

Rich
 
Well Colorado extended the deadline to Friday , apparently fish and game needs more money to relocate wolfs. After everyone talking about what they applied for, me included lol.
 
I forgot to mention where I originally applied. It's changed about 19 times since the original "deadline". :)
 
I'll get this party started. I applied for unit 67 2nd season with 8 NR points. What did everyone else go after with their points?

I think that I'll draw but I'm definitely worried.
I did the same with 9 points
 
from the sounds of it, there's going to be a huge jump in the second season tags. it will be interesting.
 
from the sounds of it, there's going to be a huge jump in the second season tags. it will be interesting.
Are you hearing that for the gunnison basin units deer quotas?
Are those rumors or have you actually heard from Biologist who will be recommending the increases? Thanks
 
Buckhorn, sorry, I didn't convey my point very well. My thoughts are that we'll see a huge jump in point creep for 2nd season tags. just more people talking second season tags this year than I've ever heard before.
 
I put in for the same tag as you but with one more point.
Not sure which one of us you are replying to.
You could hit the reply button in a persons post and reply directly to that particular post.
Starting a conversation is a good way to go if you would like to have a more in-depth chat on the subject without everyone else seeing it.
Thanks
 
61 2nd with 7 points for wife, who knows with point creep. I hunted it in 2006 on 2nd hunt and passed some decent bucks.
 
I'll get this party started. I applied for unit 67 2nd season with 8 NR points. What did everyone else go after with their points?

I think that I'll draw but I'm definitely worried.
I know 3 NR s that applied for 67 2nd as a group, lowest point tag holder has 10 points. I applied for 66 3rd with 23 NR, honestly will be surprised if I get it with +3 from last year points needed.
 
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We applied for 67 2nd also. We only had 3pts, looks like it will be a long shot to draw that tag this year. 88% drew last year with 3 pts for non resident. ?‍♂️?‍♂️
 
We applied for 67 2nd also. We only had 3pts, looks like it will be a long shot to draw that tag this year. 88% drew last year with 3 pts for non resident. ?‍♂️?‍♂️
I think you have a decent shot at it. Especially if they do the tag increases.
The folks I’ve talked to that would know said increases are likely.
 
Buckhorn,

67 2nd won't go for 3-4 points and 54 2nd won't go for 1 point even if they add tags. last year they added 100 tags to the DAU of 66/67. Another addition of 100 tags won't combat the increase of folks looking to dump their points on magic dates.

Rich
 
Ya, I'd bet a substantially weighty sum that Unit 67 won't go for 3 points 2nd season. I'm in at 9 points for that tag - I feel good, but not cocky "it's a lock" good. With 9. I look at it as buying a slightly early 3rd season tag "on the cheap." Weather will be everything, could only be worth 3 points but could also hunt like a season well valued at well north of 10. Obviously hoping for the latter...if I have a tag!
 
Ill throw a guess out there just to see if I was close with my thinking going into the draw. I see 67 2nd taking at least 6 points but wouldn’t surprise me if it was 7 or 8, and 54 2nd in the 3 point range.
 

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