Colorado's weighted point fee for sheep?
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PleaseDear
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For a $100, I'm staying with it dw??.
Robb
Robb
JRABQ
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It's a tough question, no clear answer.
Since you are at max points each additional is only an incremental relative improvement. One reason for paying it is you never know what the future holds. I really want a sheep tag, I have one under max, I'll keep buying them.
Not sure about goats, they don't interest me as much. Got lucky and drew moose last year so I'm at least out of that portion of the game.
JR
Since you are at max points each additional is only an incremental relative improvement. One reason for paying it is you never know what the future holds. I really want a sheep tag, I have one under max, I'll keep buying them.
Not sure about goats, they don't interest me as much. Got lucky and drew moose last year so I'm at least out of that portion of the game.
JR
I'm at 3+18 too. Future draw odds for a non-resident probably aren't good of ever drawing in your life but the future odds are slightly better with the extra point. 1.05 x almost zero still is almost zero. I think there is the factor that you don't know how things will change. I kind of expect them to do something to weight points more heavily soon if the new fee isn't well received and most applicants don't buy the point. If most applicants but the point, status quo will probably hold. If the system doesn't change, it probably isn't worth $100 for an extra point if at high points for a an applicant pushing 60 or older.
I'm at 3+15 for sheep and moose, and 3+14 for goat as a resident. As has been said above the only constant with CP&W's drawing system is its constantly changing. I'll keep chipping in $150/yr in hoping it changes again, knowing I still may never draw. When the wolves get here, our moose population will take the first hit. I look for pp fees for the other species in the near future. Maybe that'll wake up the masses. I doubt it, but maybe.
#livelikezac
#livelikezac
The Colo pref pt charge is a joke if you ask me! There's the chance it will change again in the near future, Hopefully the CPW get's their act together soon! I'm not exactly sure who is making the final decisions in high places but they certainly don't seem to be willing to take advice from hunters!
dwalton
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LAST EDITED ON Mar-09-19 AT 06:42PM (MST)[p]Thanks for the replies! I'm not sure at this point if I'll opt in for the extra $100 point. Best of luck to all in the draw!
Edit: Pushing 60 yrs old used to seem far off. At 53, I definitely can see it on the horizon!
Edit: Pushing 60 yrs old used to seem far off. At 53, I definitely can see it on the horizon!
I think the new point fee will drop out most of the non-residents who jumped in just because it was cheap and they don't have to front the full tag fee. As long as draw odds aren't killed, I would almost rather pay $100 extra to apply as front $2k plus. I guess we will see how that works after they release the statistics this year. It's just a guess now.
DoeNob
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Mathematically under the current system, the more you have the less value you get from buying an additional one. I'm at 3 and 3 so I will buy one more this year for all 3 because I want to see how the draw odds shake out after we have a bunch drop out from last year. We could see pretty good odds this year, historically.
My generally feeling is the break point for me is somewhere around 6 bonus points give or take one or two, but I need to do some more math to validate that.
So that's my advice to everyone who has asked me. Buy them all this year and check again next year, hard to make hard conclusions about a system that's constantly in flux.
My generally feeling is the break point for me is somewhere around 6 bonus points give or take one or two, but I need to do some more math to validate that.
So that's my advice to everyone who has asked me. Buy them all this year and check again next year, hard to make hard conclusions about a system that's constantly in flux.
LAST EDITED ON Mar-12-19 AT 09:06PM (MST)[p]The odds will never go back to the 2017 levels. All this experiment did was decrease your odds, which weren't that good to begin with. Thanx for kickin the loyal dogs CP&W. You notice that all the "ya but now I can afford to put my whole family in" crowd have gone deafly silent? SMFH
#livelikezac
#livelikezac
HIcountryman
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Are u putting in for a hunt? Or just points cuz you re not ready to take plunge if you DO draw? Im applying for hunts now that i have 3 pts plus a couple weighted... i am a resident though. If you have the weighted points, you have a CHANCE at draw, right?
Seems like buying points is a tough proposition... but like a couple posters have pointed out, system is changing each year! Keep buying points, i say. Stay in the game till it settles.
Weighted points system is kinda terrible. More points should equal more likely to draw over those with less points! ( i realize that more points FRACTIONALLY give you better odds...)
Seems like buying points is a tough proposition... but like a couple posters have pointed out, system is changing each year! Keep buying points, i say. Stay in the game till it settles.
Weighted points system is kinda terrible. More points should equal more likely to draw over those with less points! ( i realize that more points FRACTIONALLY give you better odds...)
LAST EDITED ON Mar-15-19 AT 07:27PM (MST)[p]You can bet that those that have just applied for a pref pt each year will start applying for units to draw. When the price of applying was relatively cheap it really didn't matter! My guess is that draw odds will continue to drop the next few years as more and more guys apply for units rather than applying for pref pts.
Your guess is as good as mine in regard to what the CPW will do in future years. I have a feeling a lot of old timers that have invested years and $ applying for tags.....and now are paying high fees to continue applying with dismal draw odds are pretty darn upset. I'm sure many old timers would like to shift to a system where they actually stand a better chance to draw.
Why would anyone in their right mind continue paying $50 or $100/year if they don't have a better chance to draw tags?
It certainly would be great if applications fees and pref pt charges go directly to game conservation. Unfortunately none of that $ goes to that!
Your guess is as good as mine in regard to what the CPW will do in future years. I have a feeling a lot of old timers that have invested years and $ applying for tags.....and now are paying high fees to continue applying with dismal draw odds are pretty darn upset. I'm sure many old timers would like to shift to a system where they actually stand a better chance to draw.
Why would anyone in their right mind continue paying $50 or $100/year if they don't have a better chance to draw tags?
It certainly would be great if applications fees and pref pt charges go directly to game conservation. Unfortunately none of that $ goes to that!
Adventurewriter
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Hard to say I started a thread on bowsite Colorado forum for other thoughts....
dwalton
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Pretty sure I'll opt out of the optional $100 fee. Looks more like the law of diminishing returns. Even if the system is changed, being one weighted point behind won't make that much of a statistical difference. Of course, my viewpoint is a bit different since I already have a dandy Rocky Mtn ram on my wall.
hawkbill
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I have a lot of weighted points, it is a joke the way they are formulating these points . My hunting partner and myself were just going over the stats. If I had max points I might keep buying points, but it just doesn't make sense with odds so bad to keep paying when anyone can draw with one weighted point. If I have never killed a sheep, I would probably by points
BluffGruff
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Im still putting my whole family in, just got a freebie last year. Would love to be able to have a chance at any family sheep hunts over the next 30 years.
DonVathome
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Wait a couple more years when all the new guys who got in when CC apps started hit the pool...........
I am trying like heck to draw the bad units and get out. I drew NR archery a little over 10 years ago and hope to get back one more time!
I am trying like heck to draw the bad units and get out. I drew NR archery a little over 10 years ago and hope to get back one more time!
Broomer
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Drew my Mt Goat tag as a non-res with 3-6 in 2017. I'm soooo glad I did just before all this. I was super lucky obviously. The $100 fee would have been real hard to continue knowing all the guys who are jumping in the pt game. Doesn?t matter the cost these state game agencies know the appeal for tags so people will still pay/buy. It's only going to get much worse.
I mean what are my chances to draw another non-res trophy species in any state let alone in Colorado. I have pts in Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, Arizona, and Montana. I apply in my home state for Rocky/moose just depends on the year. I've drawn a Desert in Utah, I apply in Idaho for sheep. A guy really has to ask himself what are the realistic odds of getting lucky again. Hundreds of dollars each year to sustain this application strategy..... I'll probably keep betting!
I mean what are my chances to draw another non-res trophy species in any state let alone in Colorado. I have pts in Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, Arizona, and Montana. I apply in my home state for Rocky/moose just depends on the year. I've drawn a Desert in Utah, I apply in Idaho for sheep. A guy really has to ask himself what are the realistic odds of getting lucky again. Hundreds of dollars each year to sustain this application strategy..... I'll probably keep betting!
COLOelkman
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A good article on comparing various PP systems is on toprut.com. Their analysis says that the current weighted system is very similar to simple weighted pts (ie. 10 pts = 11 chances). I decided to contribute $50 as a res this year for moose only because I want to see if they change anything next year as it will be the 1st year of the next 5-year plan. If nothing changes, the numbers tell me it's not worth $50 for a teeny tiny increase in odds for those that have a lot of points. I kinda doubt they'd go to a "top points wins" system like they have for elk and deer. Seems like most people (if they'd take the time to look thru the numbers) would drop out when you calculate how many years it would take to draw. Just way too many people apply for so few tags equals very small likelihood to draw in your lifetime....but some people will be lucky. I really don't like the current system as I don't think it rewards those that have put in for years as much as I'd like. But it does probably generate more revenue since it gives people a small chance to draw a dream tag. People contribute to Powerball and odds here are way better than those!!!
sticksender
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There are only two western states that use a preference system for sheep...Utah and Wyoming. Both have at least a 40-year wait, perhaps longer, for those NR's who would contemplate starting to apply today for the first time. Eventually it will become a system in which the only winners by preference will be those who outlive their contemporaries. My guess Colorado keep tweaking their weighted system, instead of adopting any kind of preference system, since it's already been proven that preference systems just flat don't work in the long-term.
