Covid-19 and draw odds

[fullthrottle]

So what do you guys think about the effects of covid-19 and the hunting industry including draw odds. It has got to have an effect on the whole deal. People naturally spend more money on luxuries like hunting, fishing, boats, toys, etc. We have seen the effects on draw odds and the number of hunters that actually apply to hunt in other states during hard times in the past. I don’t think we have even begun to scratch the surface as far as the effects on the economy that this is sure to have.

 

[Wapitiwilly]

Agreed...buckle up it’s liable to be a bumpy ride for a bit!

 

[hornkiller]

I hope nobody put in for non res buffalo!

 

[idahohuntr]

Yep, a few weeks ago I would have said no impact on draw odds...but now its becoming crystal clear there will be massive economic impacts that likely result in a noticeable drop in NR apps.

 

[scopenstalk]

The only people It weeds out are the non die hards. Plenty of guys will just throw their apps on credit cards even if they are on food stamps. I thought the economy would slow down shed hunters in 2008. All it did was give people more time to go.

 

[roadrunner]

CPI will have no choice but to match income, or the lack thereof. Bonuses will get whacked and large pay raises will subside.

This is a global event, not domestic. The dumbest thing an executive can do is report a 6 figure bonus and 12 to 15 percent pay increase for themself...

 

[Founder]

If we reach 20% unemployment, there’ll definitely be a lot less NR apps. If you’re employed, you ain’t likely throwing thousands of dollars at hunting. I don’t think anyway.

 

[Deerlove]

New Mexico is too late, I do think they will drop the next states up.

 

[roadrunner]

If we reach 20% unemployment, there’ll definitely be a lot less NR apps. If you’re employed, you ain’t likely throwing thousands of dollars at hunting. I don’t think anyway.

20% is Great Depression levels. 20% today would be unrecoverable.

 

[treedagain]

This is not even lose to the great depression level.
Tin foil is selling out. Big difference then and now.

 

[treedagain]

My draw strategy will not change. Heck I might even put in for sheep in Idaho, even with the fact Idaho hates me and will not give me a tag. ? ? ?

 

[HalfAce]

Fewer guys will be putting in this year, guaranteed. Draw odds will definitely improve. The die hards will still be applying in multiple states. But instead of applying for 6-7 states, maybe now it’ll be 4? I’m guessing a guy that does 3 out of state hunts each fall will reduce it to 2.

Bad winters kill age classes of deer. I’m wondering if this will have the reverse effect... ?

 

[lostinOregon]

I will stick to applying for everything I always have. I do think that the longer it draws out the more effect it will have. My guess is wyoming will have the most effect due to the later dates.
Rich

 

[excavator]

This situation could affect this years and next years draw odds.

The modeling our government is using to “flatten” the curve of this epidemic suggests that preventative measures (suppression and mitigation) may be necessary for 12-18 months or until a vaccine is developed.

 

[Sierra]

Prices for land owner tags will likely take a big hit and there will likely be a lot of cancelled guided trips.

 

[YZF_88]

Good thing Wyoming had the forethought to close applications early and hold the money for half the year. They are now in a better position than all other states to retain that money (by design of course).

 

[Tristate]

I heard an alaskan outfitter has already had %100 cancelation on every browny hunt he had this spring.

 

[NVBighorn]

He should get to work!

 

[roadrunner]

This situation could affect this years and next years draw odds.

The modeling our government is using to “flatten” the curve of this epidemic suggests that preventative measures (suppression and mitigation) may be necessary for 12-18 months or until a vaccine is developed.

I would think a vaccine is developed much sooner. Time trials aside, man hours ramped up close the gap.

As big an "issue" this is, hunker down and shelter in place can only happen for so long. The response we see now here is that gov't didn't want to be responsible early on and this is the end result of making up for it.

 

[goforbroke]

I will reduce the draws I put in for my kids. I will still do the same as always. New mexico would have seen a drop, but application closed before most of this hit. Idaho will likely see fewer as they have no points, but all the states with points will remain the same, or normal point creep is my bet.

 

[1989Cohunter]

putting in the same as usual. We’ll see what happens in the fall.

 

[Alwayshunting]

I put in the same as usual but had a spring bear hunt get cancelled already.

 

[swampokie]

I found it very funny last year when everyone was convinced it was their year to hunt the gila and vv because no one will put in with non refundable lic! I knew better and I also know better than some damn virus causing non rez to pull out for economic reasons. Come on man this cant be a serious thread?

 

[scopenstalk]

I found it very funny last year when everyone was convinced it was their year to hunt the gila and vv because no one will put in with non refundable lic! I knew better and I also know better than some damn virus causing non rez to pull out for economic reasons. Come on man this cant be a serious thread?

The amount of debt I’ve seen people incur for just toys to go hunting with Makes me believe it would need to be global nuclear war to get people to not apply

 

[roadrunner]

Full fee upfront only worked one year and not by much.

After that, everyone figured they could spend $10k and get $9.9k of it back most of the time, $8k at the worst.

 

[Blank]

I may scale my hunts back to ones I can drive the truck or motor home to, and camp in the area. Probably won't be doing any flying for 6 months to a year.

 

[excavator]

I found it very funny last year when everyone was convinced it was their year to hunt the gila and vv because no one will put in with non refundable lic! I knew better and I also know better than some damn virus causing non rez to pull out for economic reasons. Come on man this cant be a serious thread?

I don't think all non-residents are rich. Certainly, a few of the average Joe non-residents will not be able to afford out of state hunts if they lose their jobs. I know where I live in southern Oregon, it is already having an affect with people getting laid off. I also just heard that the lumber and plywood mills are starting to shut down, and that will have some huge consequences.

Time will tell. Hopefully it is not as bad as it looks like it could be.

 

[buckhorn]

I think at this point it’s still too early to tell for sure.
Some of the states draw deadlines have already passed.
For the remaining states I think most folks are still going to apply especially the higher point holders.
If this virus lockdown last long enough Idaho may see a reduction in applicants for controlled hunts. Especially since Idaho doesn’t have a point system where folks have a vested interest.
Like I said it’s still too early to tell. Give it another 30 days and then see where were at.

 

[DirtyTough]

I think it will affect stuff like Colorado M, S, and G. $100 a point for non res isn't cheap. Especially the applicants that got in two years ago.

Idaho since there isn't a point system. NM to a small degree. I bet Wyoming will have slightly better odds for elk since some people drew tags or will draw, and because of the virus. Nevada will likely have less new applicants.

Those are my thoughts anyway.

 

[Focoelkman]

I think the industry is going to feel a little pain, but it will not drop prices. Gas is cheap - flights are cheap, and most hunters will go come hell or high water. Maybe folks will be less likely to book a $10k elk hunt?, maybe not. Maybe put in for one less state, but probably not.

 

[brushcreek]

I think we will see a ton of returned tags if this thing gets much worse.

 

[Deerlove]

I think it will affect stuff like Colorado M, S, and G. $100 a point for non res isn't cheap. Especially the applicants that got in two years ago.

Idaho since there isn't a point system. NM to a small degree. I bet Wyoming will have slightly better odds for elk since some people drew tags or will draw, and because of the virus. Nevada will likely have less new applicants.

Those are my thoughts anyway.

Wy elk was finished in Jan.

 

[treedagain]

You can still modify your Wyoming app

 

[Deerlove]

You can still modify your Wyoming app

But your $ gone?

 

[DirtyTough]

Wy elk was finished in Jan.

I can withdraw and instead of drawing a general elk tag in the special draw and being out $1277 I'm only out $100ish.

$1150 is a lot to some people that just lost a job. And there is still a month and a half to withdraw.

 

[Deerlove]

thanks for clarification, how come your out $100 I didn't think you could buy pts til after the draw?

 

[DirtyTough]

I was actually off on what it costs to apply. There is like a $15 app fee, plus the license is $1268, plus a 2.5% convenience fee. So you would get back the $1268 I believe. Anyway its a lot of money for a general tag if you are hurting financially.

 

[droptynes]

Sadly for sure this is going ro affect alot of people. No, a ton of people. This thing is going to have a dominoe effect for way past a year. Guys are going to sell quads, side by sides, you name it. And definitely if a guy aint got no money he aint goin huntin. He gonna be tryin to feed his damn family. This discussion is borderline sad. There is more to life than point creep and hunting. People are going to be very affected by this. And peoples' jobs to put food on their tables might not come back for years. IMO. GOD BLESS AMERICA!!! Embrace a neighbor. Donate blood. This is going to be tough on all of us.

 

[yoteduster]

Well said droptynes

 

[hawkbill]

I don’t know anything except that virus is in Sun Valley and spreading fast. I am pulling out of the work force for awhile and hunkering in. It’s not a big deal until it’s around you, there are some real sick people in the community and it’s spreading quickly. I have a feeling when it hits the construction community this whole place is going to shut down. God bless you and stay safe my friends!

 

[diablo]

As of the day before the NM deadline, I heard that the apps were UP around 10% over last year. I suspect that the later states will see some downward effects. We may see more of an effect next spring. Time will tell. This will get much worse before it gets better.