Draw on? Already happen?

MuskegMan said:
I figure I have a 1 in 7.4 (13.5%) chance of drawing a tag. This after $8k in NR app fees.

4% for Oryx
0.5% for Ibex
3.0% for Elk
1.0% for Deer
0.15% for Sheep
5.0% for Pronghorn
Click to expand...

sorry but that's not how draw odds work, if it were you could apply for a bunch of low odds drawing that add to 100 and be assured a tag on one
 
goldhunter said:
sorry but that's not how draw odds work, if it were you could apply for a bunch of low odds drawing that add to 100 and be assured a tag on one
Click to expand...
Yeah, applying for three tags at 50% each doesn't equal 150%. I'll show the actual way if anybody cares to know though (it would be 87.5%)
 
Sierra said:
1-(1/2)^3
Click to expand...
Haha. That's gonna be even more confusing since the "1/2" changes with the draw odds as well as the "3".

I'll try...

_______

1-((the odds of NOT drawing the tag)*(the odds of NOT drawing the tag)*(the odds of NOT drawing the tag))= odds of ACTUALLY drawing one tag

So this example is 1-(.5 x .5 x .5)= 87.5%

PS.... The odds of NOT drawing the tag must be presented as a decimal. For instance if you have a 5% chance of drawing then the number you'd enter would be .95
 
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Just do the math and show him that the 13.5% chance is really 12.99%.
Adding is close enough for government work with less than 10 tags that are less than 5% draw odds. Addition falls apart with higher draw odds and more applications. Anyway, I'm not holding my breath, but it'd be nice to see results this week.
 
Last edited:
BluffGruff said:
Just do the math and show him that the 13.5% chance is really 12.99%.
Adding is close enough for government work with less than 10 tags that are less than 5% draw odds. Addition falls apart with higher draw odds and more applications. Anyway, I'm not holding my breath, but it'd be nice to see results this week.
Click to expand...
Just trying to teach the actual concept since it's a widely misunderstood part of applications and odds. That way others can use it properly in the future.
 
I would rather people not know their actual odds. They'd probably start applying for more hunts that have better odds, and those might be the ones I apply for
 
I don’t care when the draw results come out I just hope with all that’s shut down here in N.M. that this virus is gone and the forest are open for hunting come September !!
 
Good old odds and probability. I once went 5 consecutive years of not drawing a pronghorn tag with 40-50% odds each year.

So has the drawn happened or do we have about 22,000 minutes to go?
 
Wish NM would go to a PP system like Colorado. I’m a NM resident and haven’t drawn a Bull elk tag in 19 years; haven’t drawn any tags in 4 years straight.
 
flymetyme said:
Wish NM would go to a PP system like Colorado. I’m a NM resident and haven’t drawn a Bull elk tag in 19 years; haven’t drawn any tags in 4 years straight.
Click to expand...

No you don’t. With such a limited tag allotment like NM, point creep would be out of control. You may draw a tag once in your life, but your kids or anyone who doesn’t get in on the ground level wont in any unit worth a darn.
 
grizzly said:
I understand how NM works. I'd love to hear a more accurate way to figure their odds if you have thoughts on it. It certainly isn't adding them together.
Click to expand...

A few layers to get through to get to what would be a plausible scenario in draw odds, but each choice on an application acts as its own separate application because Johnny's three choices will be looked at before Bill's.

First hurdle: your app number has to be somewhere in the mix for total tags for that species you put in for.

Second hurdle: your app has to be high enough in the pecking order (looked at sooner than others) to even have your choices matter.

Third hurdle: your choices on your app have to be high enough on the list against the other choices on other apps for it to matter.

Best thing anyone can do is to look at how quickly a hunt "fills up" based on how many tags are awarded to 2nd and 3rd choice, which are usualy the "least desirable". The more desirable hunts you put in for your choices, the lower your chances are at getting drawn.

Oryx app with 20,000 tags available out of total of 200,000 applications. You have a 1/10 chance your app will be in the mix.

Same app with 50 tags for each choice and 1,000 put in for each of your choices. You have a 1/20 chance for your choices to win a tag.

A Monte Carlo method can't be used to predict the number of times a hunt code will show up with good odds because the applications are only shuffled once.
 
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flymetyme said:
Wish NM would go to a PP system like Colorado. I’m a NM resident and haven’t drawn a Bull elk tag in 19 years; haven’t drawn any tags in 4 years straight.
Click to expand...

What are the draw odds of the elk tags you apply for. With 3 choices once thEy look at your app, and as a resident you have great opportunity to make the 3rd choice a high draw odds choice over 19 years the odds would be extremely low to fail to draw if best odds choice was always 30% or better.

if you only go for lottery odds choices then your results are as expected (on average)
 
ss13 said:
No you don’t. With such a limited tag allotment like NM, point creep would be out of control. You may draw a tag once in your life, but your kids or anyone who doesn’t get in on the ground level wont in any unit worth a darn.
Click to expand...

A hybrid system is better. Valle Vidal for instance. Make it 5 or more points to draw, no exceptions. After 5 years you have 5 points and now qualify to put in. You draw, Yay! Now you are set back to zero and have 5 years to build up enough qualifying points.
Another guy has 8 points. He draws, Yay! Now his balance is set to 3 points and takes two years to build enough qualifying points.

In order to build points, your first choice has to be Valle Vidal. No buying points, so the cost to play is a choice place holder which means for five years you run the risk of not drawing at all, or "less desirable" hunts. No point creep because once you hit the magic 5, it is an open and random draw like it is now, no weighted advantage.
 
Leave it alone! If you want to change anything. Draw by choice instead of app. That gives everyone a chance for 1st choice and substantially increases odds. Pp are out!
 
I hope N.M. never goes to points !! I have been buying points in a couple states and I’m at 17 points now and still never have drawn a tag but I’ve had my share of N.M. tags over the years. Once I ever draw in the states I have points in I’m done with points !!
 
DBR said:
I hope N.M. never goes to points !! I have been buying points in a couple states and I’m at 17 points now and still never have drawn a tag but I’ve had my share of N.M. tags over the years. Once I ever draw in the states I have points in I’m done with points !!
Click to expand...
On top of that they are bending people over with fees knowing they won't draw anytime soon. Colorado is basically 100 dollars a point and then over 400 if you draw. That's a 1500 dollar deer tag after 10 years!
 
Colorado PP system increase residents odds of drawing for sure and can work wonders for NM residents draw chances. You never hear Colorado residents complain about not drawing tags to hunt their state.
 
wilhille said:
Nah. All it does is pretty much guarantee that you won't draw a tag.
Click to expand...

It guarantees you’ll only draw a top tier tag one time in your life, that’s for sure. For the life of me I can’t figure out why NM residents would want a PP system. They don’t have the game numbers or quality to sustain that system. Even Colorado is losing ground to creep.

NM would be a nightmare for creep. The 2’s for deer would be OIL tags with a point system. The top tier elk units would be the same. In 10 years, those units would be 10 pt units. In 20 years they would be 20 pt units. In 30, we’ll, you get the point.

You guys are so lucky to have the system you have! Best in the west, hands down.
 
flymetyme said:
Wish NM would go to a PP system like Colorado. I’m a NM resident and haven’t drawn a Bull elk tag in 19 years; haven’t drawn any tags in 4 years straight.
Click to expand...
You are putting in for the wrong tags then. It is easy to draw a tag every year. My wife and I put in together and have drawn at least one tag, always elk, and usually a deer or ibex or antelope or multiple to go with. Now if you put in for rifle valle Vidal and Valles caldera and unit sixteen every year then ya it will be hard to draw. But if you mix it up and try archery and actually go off the drawing odds it is pretty easy to draw a tag. And most years I fill a tag too. Same thing I told my dad. Would you rather hunt the “hunt” of a lifetime or would you rather hunt.
 
I admit I don’t put in just any unit, I put in the best units and add a 3rd choice that has a reasonable chance to draw but I don’t pick units like unit 9. I noticed when I’ve help people spot on depredation hunts we show up and there’s a high percentage of NR, all deportation hunts should go to residents that haven’t drawn any hunts for the year.
 
flymetyme said:
I admit I don’t put in just any unit, I put in the best units and add a 3rd choice that has a reasonable chance to draw but I don’t pick units like unit 9. I noticed when I’ve help people spot on depredation hunts we show up and there’s a high percentage of NR, all deportation hunts should go to residents that haven’t drawn any hunts for the year.
Click to expand...
Deportation or depredation? Lol. Seems like a deportation hunt would be to get rid of illegals ha ha
 
I'm curious what jmgraham1986 thinks since they reacted with a :mad: to my post about a hybrid point system?

Wonder if they think I'm saying that for everything instead of asking for clarification in which I would've replied, no, just for select very tough to draw hunts.

But then, some people like the idea of luck always being in their side and hunting unit 2C for deer in Nov or 6B at the peak of the rut every year.
 
And I don’t put in for any hunts either. Mostly unit 12 and 13. Have drawn elk seven years in a row. Deer four years. Ibex 1 year. Antelope 1 year.
 
We have harvested 3 elk, 1 antelope, 2 deer, 1 bear. We have only gone 1 year without harvesting anything and that was on the apre-6 hunt last year. We couldn’t hunt the rut so that is the hunt we drew because of limited options for archery hunts not in the fall for elk
 
Great to hear your drawn these not so coveted tag and been successful . Keep up the thrill of the chase, hopefully this will be my year. Good luck to you in the draw.
 
Man hope they post tomorrow! Good luck boys and girls. I really hope some of you locals who haven’t draw finally get one too!
 
As someone who grew up in Colorado and moved to NM a few years ago I absolutely love their system. My wife and I have had some amazing hunts over the past 4 years that would have taken 10-15 years to draw in Colorado! To me point systems will never work as there simply isn't enough tags and therefore point creep is inevitable. Colorado is the prime example of that, there are deer tags you used to be able to get as leftovers or 2nd choice tags that now take 2-3 points. Give it another few years and they will take 5-6 years. Eventually people start dieing with their points which is the sad fact with a lot of the states around the west.

I really think NM has a great setup not having points and think it would be a mistake to follow the other failed systems. Now reducing option numbers might increase odds but in the long run you have to admit if you want to hunt NM there is a unit or option you can draw!
 
only thing wrong with NM system is the outfitter welfare. half or more of your tags going to landowners instead of public draw. And a set aside of public tags for outfitted hunters only. Scratch both of those and NM residents would score a ton more tags, which they should.

Colo is also bad in this regard (landowner tag allotments).
 
Reason point systems don't work well is because they are done wrong.

UT's is actually pretty good, UT's problem is they don't offer enough tags and (try to) focus on inches too much.
 
[QUOTE="roadrunner, post: 1838277, member:]
UT's is actually pretty good, UT's problem is they don't offer enough tags and (try to) focus on inches too much.
[/QUOTE]

The fact they don’t offer enough tags makes it not work. This is especially true when you look at the non resident side of preference point systems.

No state in the west offers enough tags to work through the application pool without creep.
 
Personally I like that some states have points and some don't.

I think in the next decade we'll see a change of some sort to the points system though as places realize it's not sustainable. What it looks like... who knows.

I wouldn't complain if the outfitter pool went away though!
 
[/QUOTE]
The fact they don’t offer enough tags makes it not work. This is especially true when you look at the non resident side of preference point systems.

No state in the west offers enough tags to work through the application pool without creep.
[/QUOTE]

That's what I'm saying. Instead of worrying about hero pics with 25 guys in the pic (a UT favorite) because the bull or buck is so big with so few tags, it bottle necks the point base and causes "creep".

75 tags instead of 20 would work point people through the system faster. Also, if they would not let you just buy points and make you put in and always do a random draw it would work great with how they do their point system.

Who came up with "creep" anyway to describe annual point increase? Almost as annoying as the words obey, mandatory, and subordinate/insubordination.
 
I am putting my money on Wednesday the 22nd, emails will start hitting at 10 and the website will crash from traffic. My guess but I can wait till the 29th just hoping for a few greens. Been 1 green for me for awhile now! Good Luck All!!
 
roadrunner said:
A few layers to get through to get to what would be a plausible scenario in draw odds, but each choice on an application acts as its own separate application because Johnny's three choices will be looked at before Bill's.

First hurdle: your app number has to be somewhere in the mix for total tags for that species you put in for.

Second hurdle: your app has to be high enough in the pecking order (looked at sooner than others) to even have your choices matter.

Third hurdle: your choices on your app have to be high enough on the list against the other choices on other apps for it to matter.

Best thing anyone can do is to look at how quickly a hunt "fills up" based on how many tags are awarded to 2nd and 3rd choice, which are usualy the "least desirable". The more desirable hunts you put in for your choices, the lower your chances are at getting drawn.

Oryx app with 20,000 tags available out of total of 200,000 applications. You have a 1/10 chance your app will be in the mix.

Same app with 50 tags for each choice and 1,000 put in for each of your choices. You have a 1/20 chance for your choices to win a tag.

A Monte Carlo method can't be used to predict the number of times a hunt code will show up with good odds because the applications are only shuffled once.
Click to expand...

The hardest part is you have 0 chance at any tags later in your application unless you're unsuccessful on the previous choice. The method I gave is the correct method when figuring out your odds over various tags in different states and I use it in New Mexico by applying the odds of the best-odds tag to the formula. For instance, I'd use a lesser elk unit (later choice) when I did the math than a Gila tag where odds are that I won't draw that but will get a later choice tag down my list.

So I may put my odds of drawing NM elk at 7% in the formula instead of .2%, or whatever the odds may be, since my question is that of drawing "any one" tag. Not the specific tag in the pool.

Have a good one.
 
Any point system reduces the odds of some to increase the odds of another. Bottom line is there is more demand than tags across the west, and even in much of the east.

CO is a perfect example of having to wait years for a chance at a tag. It used to be only the "better" units, but now people realize they'll never catch up, so they are putting in for "lesser" units, so the points needed there are increasing too.

AZ is another example...buy a license every year for a decade before drawing an elk tag. If you're lucky. Meanwhile you're pissing away $100/year just waiting for a tag.

IMO one of the biggest changes that decreased odds was many years ago when NMDGF revised to allow mixed weapons for applications. It used to be those who were willing to focus on 3 choices for muzzleloader or bow had a decent chance of drawing. After the change "everyone" started tossing a muzzle or bow as 3rd choice and the odds for the more primitive weapons absolutely tanked.

PLEASE DO NOT ADVOCATE FOR CHANGE IN NM!!!!
 
grizzly said:
The hardest part is you have 0 chance at any tags later in your application unless you're unsuccessful on the previous choice. The method I gave is the correct method when figuring out your odds over various tags in different states and I use it in New Mexico by applying the odds of the best-odds tag to the formula. For instance, I'd use a lesser elk unit (later choice) when I did the math than a Gila tag where odds are that I won't draw that but will get a later choice tag down my list.

So I may put my odds of drawing NM elk at 7% in the formula instead of .2%, or whatever the odds may be, since my question is that of drawing "any one" tag. Not the specific tag in the pool.

Have a good one.
Click to expand...

Assumming you're even in the running...

Have an even gooder one
 
smarba said:
IMO one of the biggest changes that decreased odds was many years ago when NMDGF revised to allow mixed weapons for applications. It used to be those who were willing to focus on 3 choices for muzzleloader or bow had a decent chance of drawing. After the change "everyone" started tossing a muzzle or bow as 3rd choice and the odds for the more primitive weapons absolutely tanked.

PLEASE DO NOT ADVOCATE FOR CHANGE IN NM!!!!
Click to expand...

That is the one change for NM I would advocate for. That, or draws by unit that way my application loaded with 6A isn't competing with yours loaded up with 55A.
 
preference points are a joke. Bonus point systems work fairly well and give a guy a fair shake. 25% to most bonus points and 75% at random (with an additional chance for each point you have). AZ system is about as close to perfect as it stands, without regards to the NR.
 
IMO AZ point system sucks. I had been putting in for 10 years to draw a tag that took 10 points then AZG&F changed their draw system and the units I’d been trying to draw now take 17 18 and 19 points to draw as of last year. I’m at 17 points now and it cost me $175 every year just to put in for AZ elk.....If I ever draw I’m done with buying points. If I had it to do all over I’d just buy a landowner tag in a good N.M. unit.
 
DBR said:
IMO AZ point system sucks. I had been putting in for 10 years to draw a tag that took 10 points then AZG&F changed their draw system and the units I’d been trying to draw now take 17 18 and 19 points to draw as of last year. I’m at 17 points now and it cost me $175 every year just to put in for AZ elk.....If I ever draw I’m done with buying points. If I had it to do all over I’d just buy a landowner tag in a good N.M. unit.
Click to expand...
I think the concept is on but the allocations are off. And I agree, if I wasn’t sitting on points for 4 desired species I to would save the money. And PM me if you want to discuss options, I lived there for 31 years and know some quality hunts for those points.
 
The problem is there are no perfect systems. Any point plan hurts some to help others.

And there are a million ideas without a lot of details.

For instance as mentioned earlier, how would 2 choices instead of 3 help odds? Same number of tags, same number of people applying. No change?!

Perhaps there might be SOME hunt codes for which the odds increase temporarily, but as soon as the odds are released, people would see the increase and adjust their applications in the future accordingly.

Poor hunt codes would remain "easier" to draw, but demand would continue to greatly outnumber available tags just as it is now.

I empathize with changes to systems already in place (AZ, CO). The rules change, the fees increase, the tags decrease, whatever, and we're stuck. Too much invested to quit. But the reason changes occur is because the ponzi scheme are always flawed...
 
Same GD argument that breaks out every year. How about just appreciate that we, as Americans, even have this option? (Yes, I’ve engaged in these debates in the past).
 
Mnbearhunter123 said:
If draw odds were truly something that people wanted to improve, going to two choices on your app instead of three would help. Preference Point systems lead to old guys with a bunch of preference points instead of old guys with a bunch of hunting memories.
Click to expand...
I think two choices would be wise and definitely split up the applicants.
 
RioHuntNutt said:
NO there is no delay...The printed date is April 29th .....Yes for 4 years the NMDGF has released results early and its been pretty great right...Well I for one wished that the dept would stick to the original printed dates and never release early. It would make alot of jobs(life for those who deal with all the phone calls/emails) easier . Less than a 6 week turn around is still pretty dang fast wouldn't you all agree?
Click to expand...
Game and fish have the draw results quick! Great job!!
 
I like it the way it is. I know guys putting in for AZ for a decade, paying money and still have not hunted, WY is starting to look like that.
 
That stinks the one year I really wanted them to stick with their trend of posting early. Oh well I guess as long as it posts and gets refunded before my credit card bill is due :D
 
A sea O' Green! Not sure I can even make the time for all these.


NMDRAW2.png
 
NMBOWHNTR27 said:
3 is perfect!!! It’s right in the middle be thankful we are not Nevada and have 5 choices
Click to expand...
I agree now that NM and CO applications are done I am struggling to make my 5 pics for all the different species in NV. It is hard enough when you have to pick three but trying to pic 5 is even more frustrating. At least it gives me something to do to keep my mind off of "when will NM post results"?

Good luck everyone (Unless you applied for the same units I did. And if you did, I hope your luck sucks!!)
 
RioHuntNutt said:
NO there is no delay...The printed date is April 29th .....Yes for 4 years the NMDGF has released results early and its been pretty great right...Well I for one wished that the dept would stick to the original printed dates and never release early. It would make alot of jobs(life for those who deal with all the phone calls/emails) easier . Less than a 6 week turn around is still pretty dang fast wouldn't you all agree?
Click to expand...

6 week turnaround is actually becoming longer than most states and not a quick turnaround.

Arizona -has started getting results out quickly, less than a month for deer and elk.

Nevada- 3 week turnaround now.

California- 10-14 day turn around.

Oregon- 5-6 week turnaround.

Montana- 3-4 week turnaround.

Idaho- 2-4 week turnaround.

Wyoming used to be less than a month before their change.

Colorado and Utah have always taken the longest.

these are mainly elk and deer draw turnaround
 
mossback50cal said:
And then one about turkey hunting being underway... they sure are being a-holes. Lol
Click to expand...

I didn't get that one... I'm hoping they're just messing with everyone and we get results in an hour. I'm betting we see them next Wednesday 4/22 though. Fingers crossed. I imagine it's mostly automated and just clicking approve once the processes are done so a late Friday release is possible.

"So you're telling me there's a chance..."
 
TX_Diver said:
I didn't get that one... I'm hoping they're just messing with everyone and we get results in an hour. I'm betting we see them next Wednesday 4/22 though. Fingers crossed. I imagine it's mostly automated and just clicking approve once the processes are done so a late Friday release is possible.

"So you're telling me there's a chance..."
Click to expand...

They're sending out test emails for the ones who drew, so if you didn't get the most recent email...

?
 
It's hard for gnf to release all the $ back to society early in these tough economic times lol. You know they're sitting on 100+ million draw dollars right now. But I love nmdgf for the record :) and thier draw is #1.
I'm hoping for the 22nd for release date but have mentally accepted the 29th in all reality.
 
roadrunner said:
They're sending out test emails for the ones who drew, so if you didn't get the most recent email...

?
Click to expand...
I call BS! They send out so many emails to everyone I can’t believe they need a test one. Besides, emails do not really matter when it’s in green or red on the website. And if it’s any wonder why I feel this way it’s cause I didn’t get the test email ??? if I seriously do not draw 53 1st archery for a second year in a row I’m not sure what to say about it???
 
82ndreddevil said:
I call BS! They send out so many emails to everyone I can’t believe they need a test one. Besides, emails do not really matter when it’s in green or red on the website. And if it’s any wonder why I feel this way it’s cause I didn’t get the test email ??? if I seriously do not draw 53 1st archery for a second year in a row I’m not sure what to say about it???
Click to expand...

I got the test email, it was the recipe one

;)
 

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