Here’s the way I figure the odds to draw a tag in the Utah limited entry bonus point system.
Each bonus point in the draw represents a chance to generate the lowest random number.
Each person that applies also gets an additional chance for their individual application.
In 2020 if you will have eight bonus points for non-resident limited entry deer plus one for your application you will have nine chances to generate the lowest random number. Those nine points are going to compete against all other applicants combined points that are applying for the Oak Creek non res archery hunt.
Using the chart above I did the math and added up all the other bonus points and applicants and I came up with 586 total points. (total chances to draw the lowest random number.) So your odds of pulling the lowest random number for that 1 tag going into 2020 are going to be 1 in 586.
I did deduct the 12 points for the one guy that drew last year.
And that is not including all the new applicants in 2020 with zero points.
The draw odds on that chart are not accurate. Don’t forget you are not competing against the number of individual applications . You are competing against the total number of points all of those individual applications have combined.
If I am not seeing this correctly could someone please tell me where I am making my mistake.
Yes Going into the 2020 draw he Has 8 points plus 1 for his application. So he has 9 chances at being generated the lowest random number needed to draw that particular TagI don’t think that’s accurate since he has 8 pts going into the draw.
Thanks ridgetopsYou actually divide the 586 by 9 to get his true draw odds. His odds are actually 1:65
They are going off just the total of people that put in for the draw..Not using their points to figure the true draw odds.Thanks ridgetops
You and Sierra and a few others seem to be in agreement on that scenario.
Math was never my strong point I seem to be drawing a bit of a blank on this one. I’m just trying to get the correct understanding.
Can you explain why in the chart above that the odds are listed at 1 in 110?
That is also confusing me.
I think so too.That's pretty cool.
These were the 2019 draw odds.
I ran the projected odds for 2020 and they get worse. Point creep is happening in Utah also.
Oh yeah I forgot about that one.I thought they fixed the point creep issue? You can’t turn the tag in after 30 days before opening day of the hunt
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