Dutton and Oak Creek NR

Hunt4more

Very Active Member
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What do you guys think my chances are for drawing dutton elk archery and oak creek mule deer archery with 8 points? I've already booked the plane ticket so I'm counting on it this year.
 
8 is a ton of points, there's just not enough quality tags to go around haha.. Vernon used to be in reach with 8, it's not creeping it's running from me.
 
The way you figure your hunt draw odds are look at that Utah hunting statistics from last year. Figure out how many hunters applied for that hunt, add up all hunters bonus points totaled and also add another point for each hunters application. Divide all that by the one Tag offered and those are your odds.
So for example if all the points you’ve added up equal 500 you have a one in 500 chance of drawing.
I’m sure you probably already knew how to do that but I just thought I would throw it out there since you asked.
Good luck!
 
Not great on either but you never know. I’m sitting on 19 Nonresident points for Elk and 11 for Deer and Antelope. Play the game. It’s fun! Lol! Looks like your Deer odds are 1 in 110 and Dutton odds are 1 in 95.

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Looks like a Dutton applicant picked it up with 4, my dad drew it in 2016 with 5 NR. Man I really want that Oak Creek tag. What other options are out there to get a tag besides the draw?
 
Here’s the way I figure the odds to draw a tag in the Utah limited entry bonus point system.
Each bonus point in the draw represents a chance to generate the lowest random number.
Each person that applies also gets an additional chance for their individual application.
In 2020 if you will have eight bonus points for non-resident limited entry deer plus one for your application you will have nine chances to generate the lowest random number. Those nine points are going to compete against all other applicants combined points that are applying for the Oak Creek non res archery hunt.

Using the chart above I did the math and added up all the other bonus points and applicants and I came up with 586 total points. (total chances to draw the lowest random number.) So your odds of pulling the lowest random number for that 1 tag going into 2020 are going to be 1 in 586.
I did deduct the 12 points for the one guy that drew last year.
And that is not including all the new applicants in 2020 with zero points.

The draw odds on that chart are not accurate. Don’t forget you are not competing against the number of individual applications . You are competing against the total number of points all of those individual applications have combined.

If I am not seeing this correctly could someone please tell me where I am making my mistake.
 
Here’s the way I figure the odds to draw a tag in the Utah limited entry bonus point system.
Each bonus point in the draw represents a chance to generate the lowest random number.
Each person that applies also gets an additional chance for their individual application.
In 2020 if you will have eight bonus points for non-resident limited entry deer plus one for your application you will have nine chances to generate the lowest random number. Those nine points are going to compete against all other applicants combined points that are applying for the Oak Creek non res archery hunt.

Using the chart above I did the math and added up all the other bonus points and applicants and I came up with 586 total points. (total chances to draw the lowest random number.) So your odds of pulling the lowest random number for that 1 tag going into 2020 are going to be 1 in 586.
I did deduct the 12 points for the one guy that drew last year.
And that is not including all the new applicants in 2020 with zero points.

The draw odds on that chart are not accurate. Don’t forget you are not competing against the number of individual applications . You are competing against the total number of points all of those individual applications have combined.

If I am not seeing this correctly could someone please tell me where I am making my mistake.

I don’t think that’s accurate since he has 8 pts going into the draw. Using your logic, if there were only 10 people applying for one tag and they all happened to have 9 pts, you would say that each person has a 1-100 chance, when they really have 1-10 chance.
 
I don’t think that’s accurate since he has 8 pts going into the draw.
Yes Going into the 2020 draw he Has 8 points plus 1 for his application. So he has 9 chances at being generated the lowest random number needed to draw that particular Tag
Correct?
I got this scenario from reading the other thread posted by BeastN where he asked the question of what the chances of drawing the Oak Creek nonresident archery tag was. He has eight points this year.
 
You actually divide the 586 by 9 to get his true draw odds. His odds are actually 1:65
Thanks ridgetops
You and Sierra and a few others seem to be in agreement on that scenario.
Math was never my strong point I seem to be drawing a bit of a blank on this one. I’m just trying to get the correct understanding.
Can you explain why in the chart above that the odds are listed at 1 in 110?
That is also confusing me.
 
Thanks ridgetops
You and Sierra and a few others seem to be in agreement on that scenario.
Math was never my strong point I seem to be drawing a bit of a blank on this one. I’m just trying to get the correct understanding.
Can you explain why in the chart above that the odds are listed at 1 in 110?
That is also confusing me.
They are going off just the total of people that put in for the draw..Not using their points to figure the true draw odds.
 
I’ve got it figured out now thanks to the help of some of you guys and I also called my son who is a math major and his wife is a statistics major they gave me an app and created a spreadsheet. Here is the results of that particular Hunt we are discussing.

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in With this new app And spreadsheetI can figure the odds for any hunt.
 
That's pretty cool.
I think so too.
After yours and others replies to my post I changed my way of looking at it.
(I saw the error of my ways.)
I also got my son to help me verify. He and his wife do math and statistics for a living so they were very helpful.
Thanks to you and the others that corrected me.
Hope this helps everyone that wants to know the true draw odds of drawing a particular hunt
Of course this is based off of last year’s applications so things will change a bit year to year.
 
These were the 2019 draw odds.
I ran the projected odds for 2020 and they get worse. Point creep is happening in Utah also.
 
Point creep in Utah been been happening. Utah is worse than Arizona now and the toughest to draw as a non resident in my opinion.
 
These were the 2019 draw odds.
I ran the projected odds for 2020 and they get worse. Point creep is happening in Utah also.

I thought they fixed the point creep issue? You can’t turn the tag in after 30 days before opening day of the hunt
 
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