Expo draw predictions?

TheOneRidgeRunner

Active Member
Messages
298
Anybody have names they want to throw out? Seems every year a few select groups get a tag for someone in the group. We all know it's not a rigged system. LOL..
So who's name you going to throw in, or a certain group of guys that will have someone draw, ya know just by chance, luck of the draw.
I'll start. G-----y.. Sure it's just a guess.
 
Watch for an usually high percentage come from the same town. Seems like every year one or two towns get a high amount of names drawn.
 
Well!

Remember the 1st Couple Years when Nobody in the Basin Drew?

We BAWLED!

And Then HOT DAMN a few Basinites started Drawing!




Watch for an usually high percentage come from the same town. Seems like every year one or two towns get a high amount of names drawn.
 
If past draw history is any indication: (I won't give their full names in case I jinx them. Some are just family names.)
-An "Allred" -Vernal-There have been 5 since 2010.
-C. Anderson - Magna -He won in 2010, 2014, 2017, every 3 or 4 years and he's due!
-J. Baker-S Jordan-2010, 2012, 2016, 2017. He's due!
-A "Betts"-Uintah Basin-There have been 5 since 2007.
-A "Carr"-Plains MT-4 total in 2017, 2018, 2019. They're on a roll!
-J DeRoest-Lehi-This would be #7.
-A "Dibble"-N Salt Lake-4 wins in last 2 years.
-A "Hadlock"-Uintah Basin-There have been 9 since 2010.
-L. Ingles-Ogden-This would be #5.
-R. Julian-Loma CA-This would be #6.
-A "Nordhoff"-Sandy/Draper. There have been 7 since 2009.
-D. Rogers-Ogden-This would be #5.
-At least one Wildlife Board member or RAC Chair.
-At least one SFW or MDF officer.

And, probably some of you!
 
BESS.

I took the under. Draw aunt even happened yet and it's started.

It's like I can see the future
 
It seems they pick a few out of the following groups every year:

Instagram hunters - last year it was Kendal Jones

Professional Hunters or family - Carter's kid Drew an antelope tag last year.

Celebrity Hunters - Chad Mendes drew sheep last year.

Wealthy SFW donors - How many tags have the Farar's drawn? 4 or more?

SFW board members - Every year it seems people notice a couple names on the list....
 
With the odds. I don't expect to draw. If I see my name I will get excited. But what usually happens is your phone blows up with text messages from friends . Texting you saying you drew. Even before I get a chance to see if Bessy draws a San Juan tag. :) I guess I get just as excited to see a few friends names on the list ! Good luck Guys and Gals !
 
I fully expect to draw, at least the Henry's tag. I also applied for 3 other tags, so I guess I'll be OK with one of them too. If I draw all 4, then I might think something strange is going on and I won't have a clue how I owe, or what I owe.
 
I fully expect to draw, at least the Henry's tag. I also applied for 3 other tags, so I guess I'll be OK with one of them too. If I draw all 4, then I might think something strange is going on and I won't have a clue how I owe, or what I owe.


Sorry.

There isn't an internet babysitter group. No tag for you?
 
My guess is they're smart enough to not rig the draw, but it appears they're not smart enough to have proper random generating software. There are far too many duplications EVERY YEAR for it to be a coincidence time after time.

I was laughing while reading EFA's list last night as I was watching McMillions :cool:
 
My guess is they're smart enough to not rig the draw, but it appears they're not smart enough to have proper random generating software. There are far too many duplications EVERY YEAR for it to be a coincidence time after time.

I was laughing while reading EFA's list last night as I was watching McMillions :cool:
That's what I have said in the past. I think the software is or has had a flaw in it.
 
I fully expect to draw, at least the Henry's tag. I also applied for 3 other tags, so I guess I'll be OK with one of them too. If I draw all 4, then I might think something strange is going on and I won't have a clue how I owe, or what I owe.

Sorry to have to tell you this, but you won't draw all 4, or even 2! You're now only allowed one of the Expo tags per year, so don't worry about what you owe!
 
Sorry to have to tell you this, but you won't draw all 4, or even 2! You're now only allowed one of the Expo tags per year, so don't worry about what you owe!
Oh good! I was starting to get worried about how much time I'd have available for all those hunts. :LOL:ha ha ha
 
-C. Anderson - Magna -He won in 2010, 2014, 2017, every 3 or 4 years and he's due!


And, probably some of you!
[/QUOTE]

I used to live in his neighborhood. He must have payed a lot of tithing. He was the bishop.
 
If these Expo tags were really about making money for wildlife conservation they would open up the drawing to anyone on the internet without having to be there to validate. They would sell exponentially more applications for these permits with a online draw rather than having to show up in Salt Lake City to validate your permits.
 
Hey elkantlers!

PALLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSE Don't give them any more Ide'ers!:D

If these Expo tags were really about making money for wildlife conservation they would open up the drawing to anyone on the internet without having to be there to validate. They would sell exponentially more applications for these permits with a online draw rather than having to show up in Salt Lake City to validate your permits.
 
Wonder what the correlation is between folks who get multiple tags and SFW and MDF. Members, friends, land owners, taxis etc. scratch our backs we scratch yours type of scenarios. Seems alot of people are catching on and smell something fishy with the tag allocation process.
 
I’m the landscaper for Don’s house. I’ve asked him regarding the raffle and he said it’s all legit. I believe him because I’ve only drawn two tags there. Anyone crying about it being rigged foolish to say the least.
 
I attended the draw in person. Despite my objection to the overall Expo tag give away, I believe the draw is conducted fairly. I watched several checks and balances performed, and while it is certainly possible everyone is being duped, it seems incredibly unlikely. It would require quite a few people to keep their mouths shut, in addition to committing outright felonies.

Sorry to burst the conspiracy bubble, but it is random. And while I know relatively few of you, I did review the list of tag winners, and didn't see anything particularly controversial this year. I'm sure that won't stop the rumor mongering, so back to the entertainment!

Bill
 
I attended the draw in person. Despite my objection to the overall Expo tag give away, I believe the draw is conducted fairly. I watched several checks and balances performed, and while it is certainly possible everyone is being duped, it seems incredibly unlikely. It would require quite a few people to keep their mouths shut, in addition to committing outright felonies.

Sorry to burst the conspiracy bubble, but it is random. And while I know relatively few of you, I did review the list of tag winners, and didn't see anything particularly controversial this year. I'm sure that won't stop the rumor mongering, so back to the entertainment!

Bill
So Bill did you see my name on the list ? I bet it will post up tomorrow sometime.
 
I attended the draw in person. Despite my objection to the overall Expo tag give away, I believe the draw is conducted fairly. I watched several checks and balances performed, and while it is certainly possible everyone is being duped, it seems incredibly unlikely. It would require quite a few people to keep their mouths shut, in addition to committing outright felonies.

Sorry to burst the conspiracy bubble, but it is random. And while I know relatively few of you, I did review the list of tag winners, and didn't see anything particularly controversial this year. I'm sure that won't stop the rumor mongering, so back to the entertainment!

Bill

Can you film it or something? How does it work so you would know that the posted final results were identical to those that were drawn while you watched? Just trying to understand how this works.
 
My name must've come up 4 times since I applied for 4 tags and so they're figuring out how to deal with all who don't believe that I could have such great luck.
 
My name must've come up 4 times since I applied for 4 tags and so they're figuring out how to deal with all who don't believe that I could have such great luck.

There may be something to this, but it might not be with your name.
 
I drew!! I knew I could sucker you guys to not support the expo.

$5

drew a 4 pack of Keystones and got $1.79 in change
 
Several people filmed the drawing process, including Adam Eakle. ANYBODY can attend the drawing in person, at the Division office. It is open to the public. NOT that it is advertised, or anything. They hold it in a conference room, so they don't encourage anyone to attend, but you absolutely can. I have attended multiple years.

After a bit of chest thumping and explaining, a key phrase is solicited from the public, and inserted into the computer code. The drawing is held (the computer spins for a few minutes) and the results are spit out with the code word across the top. This year's phrase was supplied by Adam, and he chose the tourism slogan, "Utah, Life Elevated." In previous years I chose the phrase.

I'm not naïve. I realize anything can be buried in the code. But there are computer geeks from the division that review the code each year as well.

I also think the entire expo tag giveaway sucks. But to the best of my knowledge, the draw is fair. I saw one of the premium tags drawn this year went to a guy I know in the neighborhood, and he is the farthest thing from connected.

I encourage more people to come witness the process each year. The Division needs to know we are watching. And yes, they will probably occasionally still pull a bone headed stunt now and again. And we should all call them out on it when they do.

It would take an awful lot of people in the division to be colluding for this draw to be rigged. I certainly don't like the results, as I have never drawn. Such is life.

Bill
 
It would take an awful lot of people in the division to be colluding for this draw to be rigged. I certainly don't like the results, as I have never drawn. Such is life.

Bill

The draw could be rigged without any involvement of the Division at all. The code and draw are not conducted by the Division, correct?
 
It is accurate to point out that SFW / MDF hire a consultant who wrote the software and is paid to perform the draw. I have always felt this was/ is a huge conflict of interest. It is a major portion of the consultant's revenue each year.

However, the code is reviewed and verified by several members of the Divisions IT department each year. And as mentioned, a specific code phrase is inserted in public. Yup, they could all be in on it.

It is pretty hard to believe that many people would commit felonies together, when any one could rat out the group and send them to jail. Definitely possible, but not probable to keep everybody happy and quiet for so many years.

I actually don't really trust much of government to do the right thing if they can get away with a bit of cheating. It is part of why I attend the drawing. Not because I have some magic insight, or could ever understand the code enough to detect a problem. But because the more members of the public that are watching, the more likely these guys will do the right thing.

Keep the pressure on. Attend the drawing next year. Have them pull a few records and demonstrate the random number generator, as I did several years ago. Keep questioning.

But just spouting off that it must be rigged won't change anything. It does make for good late night entertainment, however.

Bill
 
Claiming the draw is rigged is beyond stupid. The ones that have drawn, that creates controversy ie: the Farrar’s have enough money to buy whatever they want. No need to ask anyone to put themselves in danger, to commit fraud just so they can win a tag. All of the “well connected” people that everyone talks about can simply go and buy it. The money for them on those tags is like the change in the bitching people’s pockets to go buy a coke.

Claiming over and over it’s rigged just makes you look flat out dumb.
 
Claiming over and over it’s rigged just makes you look flat out dumb.

But we’ve already watched them rig the process to even get the tags. It was done in broad daylight with zero remorse or apology. And just for good measure, put a renewal option in the contract without having to put it out for bid again so hopefully enough time would pass everyone would forget about the last rigging.

This is not a conspiracy theory. This happened!

So to jus blatantly say “nothing to see here, you’re all dumb,” well, makes one look REALLY dumb.

There is no trust here, because that has been broken. To disregard that is beyond dumb, it’s insane.
 
I think the actual draw par is most likely the least likely to be shady.

But. As Vanilla said, you would think the contract process would have been straight forward.

But don't forget what this whole deal is. Its NOT for some dude putting in a $5 ticket.

It IS ABOUT the dudes who buy EVERY TICKET, and more so the dudes in the auctions.

Gotta remember who $fw constituency is.

Any and All skepticism aimed at $fw was brought about because of $fw shady business practices.

Ever notice MDF never takes the hits $fw does? There is a reason.
 

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