First Wuhan death WEEKS earlier

[hossblur]

2 Californians died of coronavirus weeks before previously known 1st US death

New autopsy results show coronavirus killed two Californians in early and mid-February -- before the previously understood first US death from the virus. This may change the understanding of how early the virus was spreading in the country, health experts say.

www.cnn.com

We are all now closet epidemiologists.

But. Community spread in California I mid January. That they know for sure.

I'm betting they find deaths in mid to early Jan.

In fact I'm betting there was death in 2019.

I never believed for a second that old folks home in Washington was the first hotspot.

Also kind of means that California had this crap rolling, for at least a month, with zero lock downs, yet it isn't New York or Italy.

 

[DW]

The deeper they dig, the earlier they will find this was here. It's how as many as 500k in La county have had it and lived than previously thought. Those Dec, Jan, Feb wuhan deaths were listed as the flu.

 

[Stillwater165]

I agree , been around a lot longer than they think !

 

[BrianID]

A new study out of New York is suggestion that around 21% of New Yorkers already have antibodies. This is all good news because there is more and more evidence that the death rate is not even close to the 2% the media hysteria was scaring everyone with. I still think this virus is a bad thing and we will still be dealing with it even a year from now. However, I never bought into the extreme media hysteria. As more evidence comes out over the next couple weeks the media hysteria and government overreach is going to be even more difficult to believe.

 

[roadrunner]

This virus will never go away, or be eradicated, the way smallpox was. However, this virus today, appears to be something that can be lived with, and normally even.

The biggest threat are the people who pretend they actually have control over our lives think there needs to be a vaccine before we can venture out into the world again.

 

[Bluehair]

What seems to be lost on media and people in general, is that the ones hit hardest by this virus are the ones under various public health care schemes. The old, the poor, native Americans, etc.

I cringe knowing the answer will be to provide more of the same.

 

[Wyosam]

This virus will never go away, or be eradicated, the way smallpox was. However, this virus today, appears to be something that can be lived with, and normally even.

The biggest threat are the people who pretend they actually have control over our lives think there needs to be a vaccine before we can venture out into the world again.

Agreed. This prevalent theory that a vaccine is coming to save the world is overly optimistic. That MAY happen, but it is actually not all that likely. For one, vaccine creation take a long time to make sure they work reasonably well, and are safe. The other problem, is that having antibodies does not appear to offer immunity for all, and when it does, it is likely to be very short lived (think flu shot, not chickenpox). There is evidence of reinfection with the same strain in both animal testing, and also in human cases. Then of course there is also the fact that a bunch of the population would refuse the vaccine anyway because some celebrity with no actual knowledge comes out against it. We‘re going to have to learn to function as a country with this virus among us. A lot more people will die from it (or exacerbations of other conditions caused by it), but everyone has to die of something. Its not like we’re going to run out of humans.

 

[NeMont]

What seems to be lost on media and people in general, is that the ones hit hardest by this virus are the ones under various public health care schemes. The old, the poor, native Americans, etc.

I cringe knowing the answer will be to provide more of the same.

One only needs to look to Europe and their socialized health care to see how hard it has hit them. France has claimed to have a superior health care system for years has gotten hammered. Spain, Italy, Germany and the UK.

Add up the deaths and infections in the EU and they far exceed that of the U.S. which would be a more accurate comparison than comparing Italy to the U.S.

"Reported" EU death tolls

Spain 22,524
Italy 25,549
France 21,856
Germany 5,575

In know Brexit happened but the UK still has Socialized Health care
U.K 19,506

total is 95,010 compared to the 50,399 U.S. with our current system. (If you believe the official death toll numbers are accurate)

Government run health care kills people

Nemont

 

[treedagain]

Agreed. This prevalent theory that a vaccine is coming to save the world is overly optimistic. That MAY happen, but it is actually not all that likely. For one, vaccine creation take a long time to make sure they work reasonably well, and are safe. The other problem, is that having antibodies does not appear to offer immunity for all, and when it does, it is likely to be very short lived (think flu shot, not chickenpox). There is evidence of reinfection with the same strain in both animal testing, and also in human cases. Then of course there is also the fact that a bunch of the population would refuse the vaccine anyway because some celebrity with no actual knowledge comes out against it. We‘re going to have to learn to function as a country with this virus among us. A lot more people will die from it (or exacerbations of other conditions caused by it), but everyone has to die of something. Its not like we’re going to run out of humans.

Show evidence of the antibodies are short loved.

 

[Wyosam]

There is no definitive evidence either way, because there hasn’t been much time for studies yet. None of the actual medical literature I have read on it (that I don’t have access to from home and is not freely distributable) is very optimistic about long term immunity, and many are questioning whether there will be consistent immunity at all. Here is one free article in a non-mass media source. https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/04/417246/promise-and-uncertainties-antibody-testing-coronavirus

 

[roadrunner]

There is no definitive evidence either way, because there hasn’t been much time for studies yet. None of the actual medical literature I have read on it (that I don’t have access to from home and is not freely distributable) is very optimistic about long term immunity, and many are questioning whether there will be consistent immunity at all. Here is one free article in a non-mass media source. https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/04/417246/promise-and-uncertainties-antibody-testing-coronavirus

Then what's the point in developing a vaccine...?

 

[Wyosam]

Then what's the point in developing a vaccine...?

I think for a couple reasons. It might work, and it might work longer- we just don’t know. Might be an annual or every few years. Hope? Money? Because people are demanding it (guess that is hope and money). We don’t actually have a functioning vaccine for ANY of the highly pathogenic corona viruses that affect humans (SARS, MERS, etc), and it is not for lack of trying.

 

[roadrunner]

And yet the world is not in a hiatus for SARS, MERS, etc.

 

[Wyosam]

And yet the world is not in a hiatus for SARS, MERS, etc.

Those both had far higher death rates, but were far less contagious. Which helps to minimize spread. SARS infected less than 10,000 worldwide, killed under a thousand. A couple dozen cases in the US. MERS infected a couple hundred, almost all on the Arabian peninsula and killed about half of them.

the shutdown is not sustainable to do anything other than delay. Supply lines for hospitals are still really choked, but I don’t the we can or will delay long enough for it to catch up. The world being shut down is not a great way to ramp up production of anything. The financial and mental health cost is going to be ugly.

 

[roadrunner]

The financial and mental health cost is going to be ugly.

Agreed.

Measles is also more contagious than CV-19. Not as "deadly" maybe but...

 

[eelgrass]

The spread of the China Virus is based on 2 factors:
1. How dense the population Is.
2. How dense the population is.

 

[whitetailrick]

I think for a couple reasons. It might work, and it might work longer- we just don’t know. Might be an annual or every few years. Hope? Money? Because people are demanding it (guess that is hope and money). We don’t actually have a functioning vaccine for ANY of the highly pathogenic corona viruses that affect humans (SARS, MERS, etc), and it is not for lack of trying.

Same reason we have the TSA..... take off our shoes, get scanned, and probed at the airport...Makes us FEEL secure and safe this virus is a force of nature and will be with us in some form from now on. We have flu vaccines but we still had UP TO 80K deaths and 800K hospitalizations.

 

[azhunteraz]

The spread of the China Virus is based on 2 factors:
1. How dense the population Is.
2. How dense the population is.

Hence social distancing (and a little extra hand washing) is the ONLY way to deal with it.