G point creep not as bad as expected

marburg

Very Active Member
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1,002
LAST EDITED ON Jun-20-16 AT 11:13PM (MST)[p]Looks like 4 points in the special draw got almost 90% of non-resi applicants a G tag.

Point creep was not as bad as many expected, Colorado might have taken some of the pressure off this year.
 
>Looks like 4 points in the
>special draw got almost 90%
>of non-resi applicants a G
>tag.
>
>Point creep was not as bad
>as many expected, Colorado might
>have taken some of the
>pressure off this year.


It took more than 4PPs for 100%. 4PPs was only an 11.03% draw rate!
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-21-16 AT 08:55AM (MST)[p]They've got draw odds before the 10am results?
Is there a link someone can share?

I'm not seeing deer or antelope draw odds.


"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
 
Unless you have insider information I don't buy it. The odds are not posted yet on the site. Soon enough we will be hearing from people about how many puts it took to draw.

My guess is 0% for 4pts in the regular and 10% to 20% in the special.

Time will tell...
 
>Unless you have insider information I
>don't buy it. The
>odds are not posted yet
>on the site. Soon
>enough we will be hearing
>from people about how many
>puts it took to draw.
>
>
>My guess is 0% for 4pts
>in the regular and 10%
>to 20% in the special.
>
>
>Time will tell...


He was able to get into the 2016 odds even though they weren't up on the G&F website by just adding 2016 in place of the 2015 pdf links. They were accurate and the odds are what were stated earlier. I can't believe the luck my buddy in Sheridan had again this year. He already drew a bull elk tag for 6A in AZ, as well as a Shiras bull moose tag for unit 23 and a cow Bison tag for the Jackson area. Today he drew a cow elk tag, a bull elk tag, a general deer tag to hunt region G again, and a buck antelope tag. I drew my deer tag, so we'll be busy trying to fill 8 tags the entire months of September and October. Life is good!!!
 
If that's the case then congrats on the savvy investigative skills!

Topgun, congrats to you and your buddy on all the tags. I will also be in G this year. Can't wait!
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-21-16 AT 11:15AM (MST)[p]G was 19% with 5. G special was 11% with 4

Go to 2015 odds report, select the report you want, change the 2105 to 2016 and it will bring it up.
 
A side thought of the topic. I hope this trend of creep slowing continues. Maybe then I'll be able to hunt region G again before I die!
 
I'm seeing the same as what Topgun posted. Only 11% of non residents drew region G deer tag in the special draw with 4pp.

No luck for me this year but didn't really expect to draw either.
 
If those 11% odds are truly accurate.... I will consider myself one lucky SOB! I have the worst luck usually.
4 points got it done for me.

I'm excited for the opportunity to hunt the beautiful Cowboy state.




"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
 
The draw moving to May 31 hurt draw odds for Non-residents IMO........I understand why they moved it, but I think it increased demand. In March, people have other draws out there.... aren't thinking about hunting as much.... and tend to put in for more 'long shots" in Wyoming. By May 31, people are realizing "I didn't draw crap!", and are more interested in a tag, any tag. One of the reasons I think for the doe/fawn tag demand increasing by a bunch. People in May are putting in for more "sure things" in WY, and trying to get a doe tag to go along with a buck tag.
 
Now let's hope they do the same for nr elk. Total bs that nr draw in February. GnF needs to pull their heads out of their Azz. Totally screws the residents of the state.
 
>Now let's hope they do the
>same for nr elk. Total
>bs that nr draw in
>February. GnF needs to pull
>their heads out of their
>Azz. Totally screws the residents
>of the state.

Totally agree with you and they have been called out on the fact that they are violating the statute that the draw can't be held before the Commission signs off on the tag totals to be issued. I'm guessing we'll be seeing a notice later this year that the NR elk application period will be changed to match the others along with the draw itself.
 
Ya you are right, the stuff that was coming up last night must not have been updated yet. Went to 5PP in the special...ouch. That is with Colorado taking some of the pressure this year too. Might hit 6 next year.
 
To put it simply, 4 points in the special was 11%, which I had, 5 points in the regular draw was 19%......
How I look at it, my special tag price bought me the extra point that I needed. With a lot of luck too.
Looking at the draw odds now, I probably would have paid regular price if I would have had 5 points going into the draw. Which wouldn't have made things much better for me.




"Wildlife and its habitat cannot speak. So
we must and we will."
Theadore Roosevelt
 
>To put it simply, 4 points
>in the special was 11%,
>which I had, 5 points
>in the regular draw was
>19%......
>How I look at it, my
>special tag price bought me
>the extra point that I
>needed. With a lot of
>luck too.
>Looking at the draw odds now,
>I probably would have paid
>regular price if I would
>have had 5 points going
>into the draw. Which wouldn't
>have made things much better
>for me.


You actually have no idea the way the draws work if you drew your tag in the PP Draw within that 11% that drew or if you lucked out and got it in the Random Draw, so saying going in the Special got you the extra point you needed is really a stretch. There is no way you'll ever know and the fact is that it was definitely a lot of luck whether you drew in that 11% pool or even more so in the Random where the odds were really stacked against you! One thing for certain is that you're going hunting and your PPs go back to 0. Now let's hope that luck continues and you go out and take advantage of it and kill a big one!
 
There were about 50+ tags in the random special draw and about 600+ fist choice apps for region G. So yeah the odds were slim, like 8 or 9% chance of drawing one of those. Either way luck was on his side and I wish I had more luck in these draws!

>>To put it simply, 4 points
>>in the special was 11%,
>>which I had, 5 points
>>in the regular draw was
>>19%......
>>How I look at it, my
>>special tag price bought me
>>the extra point that I
>>needed. With a lot of
>>luck too.
>>Looking at the draw odds now,
>>I probably would have paid
>>regular price if I would
>>have had 5 points going
>>into the draw. Which wouldn't
>>have made things much better
>>for me.
>
>
>You actually have no idea the
>way the draws work if
>you drew your tag in
>the PP Draw within that
>11% that drew or if
>you lucked out and got
>it in the Random Draw,
>so saying going in the
>Special got you the extra
>point you needed is really
>a stretch. There is
>no way you'll ever know
>and the fact is that
>it was definitely a lot
>of luck whether you drew
>in that 11% pool or
>even more so in the
>Random where the odds were
>really stacked against you!
>One thing for certain is
>that you're going hunting and
>your PPs go back to
>0. Now let's hope
>that luck continues and you
>go out and take advantage
>of it and kill a
>big one!
 
Here are the actual stats for G so noone has to look them up:

PP Regular Draw---255 tags available and 27 got one with 5PPs for 19.15% odds

PP Special Draw---171 tags available and 16 got one with 4PPs for 11.03% odds

Special Random----57 tags available and there were 620 first choice applicants (draw rate of 9.2%)

Random Draw-------85 tags available and there were 1454 first choice applicants (draw rate of 5.8%)
 
>Can you please show us the
>same for H? Thanks

My pleasure Sir!

Stats for H:

The Regular PP Draw had 358 tags available and 6 were issued with <2PPs (3.03%)

The Special PP Draw had 239 tags available and 157 were issued with 1PP (58.15%)

The Special Random Draw had 79 tags available with 391 first choice applicants for a 20.2% draw rate

The Regular Random Draw had 119 tags available with 698 first choice applicants for a 17.1% draw rate
 

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