#### desperatehills

##### Active Member

- Messages
- 929

I will use unit 30 elk for a example. In the special draw it was 37.5 % chance of drawing with max points with 3 tags available to non-residents. There were 95 1st choice applicants. Regular draw was 10% with 205 1st choice applicants for another 3 tags. My pee brain tells me there were roughly 8-9 first choice applicants with max points in the special draw and near 30 in the regular draw. Is there a place where I can see how many applicants that applied for unit 30 had 12,11, or 10 points?

The biggest wild card in predicting the future draw odds of any given unit is many applicants are not applying but just buying points. No telling when they will apply. Can anyone tell me how many max point holders bought points last year?

In case you are wondering or have not guessed yet, I have one point under max. I apply for a premium unit every year that has a random tag. If I have not drawn by 2024 I will lower my standards and go hunt. I am just killing time trying to predict which units I might draw down the road.