Help understanding draw odds/creep

desperatehills

Active Member
Messages
929
Is there a place that shows how many points applicants had that applied for a certain hunt?

I will use unit 30 elk for a example. In the special draw it was 37.5 % chance of drawing with max points with 3 tags available to non-residents. There were 95 1st choice applicants. Regular draw was 10% with 205 1st choice applicants for another 3 tags. My pee brain tells me there were roughly 8-9 first choice applicants with max points in the special draw and near 30 in the regular draw. Is there a place where I can see how many applicants that applied for unit 30 had 12,11, or 10 points?

The biggest wild card in predicting the future draw odds of any given unit is many applicants are not applying but just buying points. No telling when they will apply. Can anyone tell me how many max point holders bought points last year?

In case you are wondering or have not guessed yet, I have one point under max. I apply for a premium unit every year that has a random tag. If I have not drawn by 2024 I will lower my standards and go hunt. I am just killing time trying to predict which units I might draw down the road.
 

WapitiBob

Long Time Member
Messages
4,822
Toprut has individual point breakdown.

for 2019 special
13 points; 8 apps
12 points; 6 apps
11 points; 5 apps

2019 regular
13 points; 29
12 points; 14
11 points; 5 apps

the elk draw database I have doesn't include points only purchases but you can get it by sending an email to Mark Nelson wgf.inforequest@wyo.gov
 
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desperatehills

Active Member
Messages
929
Thanks Wapiti, that is helpful. Hard to tell when and where people will jump in. It looks like some units that require max points to draw now may reach the one under level in the near future.
 

lostinOregon

Very Active Member
Messages
1,669
Desperate hills, I'm sorry bud, but I disagree. For several units like 100, 30, 31, 32, 22, 124, 54, 56, 58, 59, 113 that take maximum points currently, I wouldn't expect any of them to hit one under for the next 10 plus years, if then. There are 1,381 folks with max points with very few hunts that folks are applying with max points. This doesn't include the 1,433 that have the same amount of points as you. I haven't done the math to figure out how many folks actually draw out of the max pool every year, but I am guessing those units listed above don't total 40 tags.

If you added all of those tags available for the max point units above and then divide them by 1,381 you will get a ballpark before you would run out of max point holders. Some will point share and drop out, or select lower demand hunts, but a majority will stick to the expert picks that they are paying to listen to.

If there were 50 tags available a year for the 11 hunts above that take maximum points it would take 28 years before they would all be draw out.

You might want to reconsider your options

Rich
 

BuzzH

Long Time Member
Messages
3,781
Bottom line there's no way to know.

I've seen people blow max points on general elk tags, cow tags, etc.

Economy, units doing better and worse all change things.
 

desperatehills

Active Member
Messages
929
Using the example above there were only 8 non-residents that applied for that unit in the special draw. "IF" no one changed what they were applying for it would leave the max point required category in 3 years. I understand that is not going to happen. There will always be new max point holders jumping in that have only bought points in the past. I think some of these units might leave the max point category for one year. Then when max point holders spot that it was 100% the year before they will pile in killing the odds. Then everyone will call it "point creep".

"Just remember, it doesn't take max PP to have a great hunt."

I agree 100% Everyone has a different plan. When I started building points it was with the intention of burning most my points in retirement. I get what people mean when they say "quit building points and go hunting" and "you can kill a big bull in a general unit". I hunt deer, elk, bear, and cougar every year in my home state. I apply for the sky and I have gotten lucky and done several of my out of state hunts early. Most years I have at least one out of state hunt.

I will keep studying each states systems and see if I can sneak a tag out before my time. If not I will pick one I can get with my points when work is no longer in my way. I am sure I will have a great hunt either way
 

hornguy

Active Member
Messages
100
Desperate hills, I am in the same boat. One under max doesn't seem to buy us much. I am lucky enough to be able to hunt deer and elk every year in the general hunt as a res in Idaho. I also apply in many western states and have been lucky to draw a great tag or two. I think Wy will continue to require max points to draw any of the top units. Look at CO and the unbelievable amount of points it takes to draw an average unit and it gets worse every year. If you have or get any insights for the one under group I would greatly appreciate any help or at least some encouragement. Guess we just need to hang on and believe it will be our time.
 

desperatehills

Active Member
Messages
929
I think we can get a good hunt with our points. It will not be 13X better than a general tag or even half as good as a max point unit but we will get to have a good hunt somewhere.
 

wytex

Active Member
Messages
693
I think we can get a good hunt with our points. It will not be 13X better than a general tag or even half as good as a max point unit but we will get to have a good hunt somewhere.
You can get way better than "half as good as a max hunt" with less than max PP. Just wondering why most NR think only the max areas have the best hunting? Yes, most have better hunting, but some have absolutely great hunting in non max PP areas.
 

desperatehills

Active Member
Messages
929
Wytex is right, someone that has and takes the time to learn a general area or low point area can have better success than someone who steps into a premium unit blind. People like me will likely have this one good elk hunt in Wyoming. I am sure I could get onto elk much faster in unit 100 than a general unit. Those of us with less than max points will search for that happy spot in the middle.
 

Katoom

Active Member
Messages
261
you are wasting your time 1 under max and still applying for top hunts. Use your points on the best hunt that you are guaranteed to get next year and then continue to accumulate again while still putting in for the home run for a few years.
 

desperatehills

Active Member
Messages
929
I might be wasting a little money but I don't feel like I am wasting my time. My intention is to hunt for sure when I retire in a unit that I can draw with the points I have. For now I am just trying to cherry pick a better unit. I am well aware of how long the odds are. They are Zero if I don't apply
 

nripepi

Very Active Member
Messages
1,596
There are so few tags and units that take max, you have to go for the next best unlesd you plan on waiting 10 years? Go 16-2 and bowhunt it for a month, take a month off and then come back with a rifle or go 62 if you don't want to deal with private and like a few grizz around or 24 if you want the no grizz and no private issues....
 

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