How many bonus tag tickets do you buy?

canyoncrosser

Active Member
Messages
694
I feel like a sucker doing it, but I buy at least five for all species every year. My recollection tells me the odds are astronomically bad but I do it anyways ...
If I draw just one tag I'm not supposed to draw in California in my life I would consider it a win!
 
I can't stand to not be in the running. I used to buy about 5 of each, but now I only buy one of each because the odds for that one tag are so terrible. I buy my kids and wife one each too.
 
3-5 for deer and sheep 2-3 for elk and antelope . I know the odds are bad but someone has to win . I'm like you if I draw one raffle tag in my lifetime in California I believe it will have paid for the hunt . The thing is I probably will never draw a raffle tag .
 
i always buy 1 each. Fyi, if 5,000 tickets are bought and you buy 2 tickets your odds are not 1/2500. your odds are 1/5,000 on the first ticket and 1/2,499 on the second ticket.
 
wouldn't the odds be 2/5000? How do the odds change for first ticket vs the 2nd? They are both in the same drawing aren't they?

So what are the odds if you were to buy 100 tickets?
 
hmmmmm....you better retake that class...



497fc2397b939f19.jpg
 
i have max sheep pts. i put in for white mtns where last year 162 max point guys applied for 2 max tags. my odds are not 1/81(2 tags), they are 1/162, then 1/161 on the second max tag draw.
 
>i have max sheep pts. i
>put in for white mtns
>where last year 162 max
>point guys applied for 2
>max tags. my odds are
>not 1/81(2 tags), they are
>1/162, then 1/161 on the
>second max tag draw.


Then you would have separate odds aside from those that you listed once your thrown back into the pool for the random draw tag .
 
That is certainly how it is in the bonus tag drawing.....that drawing is a pure raffle ....

I have no idea what Novemberforever is talking about...in this raffle tag drawing.




497fc2397b939f19.jpg
 
>That is certainly how it is
>in the bonus tag drawing.....that
>drawing is a pure raffle
>....
>
>I have no idea what Novemberforever
>is talking about...in this raffle
>tag drawing.
>
>
>
>
>
497fc2397b939f19.jpg



the super lotto plus odds are 1/80 mill. if you buy a second ticket your odds are not 1/40 mill they are 1/79,999,999.
 
LAST EDITED ON Jun-10-18 AT 08:24PM (MST)[p]ok....you're telling me if a pure raffle drum of 5000 tickets total and 500 of them are mine....I only have a 1 in 4500 chance of drawing???....they roll the drum and then make 1 draw.....retake the class..


....the super lotto is NOT a raffle....you have to guess 6 of 6 random numbers...retake the class


497fc2397b939f19.jpg
 
>LAST EDITED ON Jun-10-18
>AT 08:24?PM (MST)

>
>ok....you're telling me if a pure
>raffle drum of 5000 tickets
>total and 500 of them
>are mine....I only have a
>1 in 4500 chance of
>drawing???....they roll the drum and
>then make 1 draw.....retake the
>class..
>
>
>....the super lotto is NOT a
>raffle....you have to guess 6
>of 6 random numbers...retake the
>class
>
>
>
497fc2397b939f19.jpg


Sadly,most hear are cal public school educated. Go nack to your 9th grade bs math class teacher and ask them. They may have taken a stats class at a legit uni. Otherwise the drawing stats are above your budlight groove. Btw, put in for az.,nv,ut, otherwise u r a fool.
 
>>i have max sheep pts. i
>>put in for white mtns
>>where last year 162 max
>>point guys applied for 2
>>max tags. my odds are
>>not 1/81(2 tags), they are
>>1/162, then 1/161 on the
>>second max tag draw.
>
>
>Then you would have separate odds
>aside from those that you
>listed once your thrown back
>into the pool for the
>random draw tag .
Cotrect genius, and my random draw odds are 1/1600??? My buddies are prostaff and they dont waste a dime on cal. Az, nv is the nr realbcc deal.
 
>>LAST EDITED ON Jun-10-18
>>AT 08:24?PM (MST)

>>
>>ok....you're telling me if a pure
>>raffle drum of 5000 tickets
>>total and 500 of them
>>are mine....I only have a
>>1 in 4500 chance of
>>drawing???....they roll the drum and
>>then make 1 draw.....retake the
>>class..
>>
>>
>>....the super lotto is NOT a
>>raffle....you have to guess 6
>>of 6 random numbers...retake the
>>class
>>
>>
>>
497fc2397b939f19.jpg

>
>Sadly,most hear are cal public school
>educated. Go nack to your
>9th grade bs math class
>teacher and ask them. They
>may have taken a stats
>class at a legit uni.
>Otherwise the drawing stats are
>above your budlight groove. Btw,
>put in for az.,nv,ut, otherwise
>u r a fool.

Best of luck to all in 9 hous.
 
>>LAST EDITED ON Jun-10-18
>>AT 08:24?PM (MST)

>>
>>ok....you're telling me if a pure
>>raffle drum of 5000 tickets
>>total and 500 of them
>>are mine....I only have a
>>1 in 4500 chance of
>>drawing???....they roll the drum and
>>then make 1 draw.....retake the
>>class..
>>
>>
>>....the super lotto is NOT a
>>raffle....you have to guess 6
>>of 6 random numbers...retake the
>>c



>>
497fc2397b939f19.jpg

>
>Sadly,most hear are cal public school
>educated. Go nack to your
>9th grade bs math class
>teacher and ask them. They
>may have taken a stats
>class at a legit uni.
>Otherwise the drawing stats are
>above your budlight groove. Btw,
>put in for az.,nv,ut, otherwise
>u r a fool.

lol...you are truly a moron....you are educated beyond your intelliegence




497fc2397b939f19.jpg
 
I'm a big fan of the MM statistics purfessers. It's a genre of comedy that you just can't find anywhere else.

Anyway....bring on the results!
 
If you buy 100 tickets out of 5000...your odds are 100 in 5000. If you buy 1,000,000 tickets out of 2,000,000, your odds are 2/1 or 1,000,000 out of 2,000,000. If you buy a lotto ticket your odds do not mathematically change as any buyers that magically pick the same numbers have the same odds as you did. Plus, there could be no winners EVER on the lotto due to the particular 6 numbers NEVER hitting.

Cancer doesn't discriminate...don't take your good health for granted because it can be gone in a heartbeat. Please go back and read the last line. This time really understand what it says.
 
>I'm a big fan of the
>MM statistics purfessers. It's a
>genre of comedy that you
>just can't find anywhere else.
>
>
>Anyway....bring on the results!


Again, i have max pts for sheep. Last year 162 max pt guys put in. First draw 1/162, second draw, 1/161 not both at 1/81. Yes, super lotto is slightly different. Anyone dispute my white mt. Sheep odds? I put in for white mtns cuz most cant make the climb. Either way cal is fools draw vs az, nv. Goodluck to all on the draw. Golden bb time.lol
 
Btw, the fund raiser raffle tickets are probably 300,000/species. Dfg wont say but do that math.
 
>>I'm a big fan of the
>>MM statistics purfessers. It's a
>>genre of comedy that you
>>just can't find anywhere else.
>>
>>
>>Anyway....bring on the results!
>
>
>Again, i have max pts for
>sheep. Last year 162 max
>pt guys put in. First
>draw 1/162, second draw, 1/161
>not both at 1/81. Yes,
>super lotto is slightly different.
>Anyone dispute my white mt.
>Sheep odds? I put in
>for white mtns cuz most
>cant make the climb. Either
>way cal is fools draw
>vs az, nv. Goodluck to
>all on the draw. Golden
>bb time

Addition is apparently complicated.
 
>>I'm a big fan of the
>>MM statistics purfessers. It's a
>>genre of comedy that you
>>just can't find anywhere else.
>>
>>
>>Anyway....bring on the results!
>
>
>Again, i have max pts for
>sheep. Last year 162 max
>pt guys put in. First
>draw 1/162, second draw, 1/161
>not both at 1/81. Yes,
>super lotto is slightly different.
>Anyone dispute my white mt.
>Sheep odds? I put in
>for white mtns cuz most
>cant make the climb. Either
>way cal is fools draw
>vs az, nv. Goodluck to
>all on the draw. Golden
>bb time.lol


In 2017 there were 139 max point applicants for 2 preference tags for the White Mtns hunt. If my math is correct, that equates to a probability of 2/139 or 1.438% of drawing.
 
>>>I'm a big fan of the
>>>MM statistics purfessers. It's a
>>>genre of comedy that you
>>>just can't find anywhere else.
>>>
>>>
>>>Anyway....bring on the results!
>>
>>
>>Again, i have max pts for
>>sheep. Last year 162 max
>>pt guys put in. First
>>draw 1/162, second draw, 1/161
>>not both at 1/81. Yes,
>>super lotto is slightly different.
>>Anyone dispute my white mt.
>>Sheep odds? I put in
>>for white mtns cuz most
>>cant make the climb. Either
>>way cal is fools draw
>>vs az, nv. Goodluck to
>>all on the draw. Golden
>>bb time.lol
>
>
>In 2017 there were 139 max
>point applicants for 2 preference
>tags for the White Mtns
>hunt. If my math
>is correct, that equates to
>a probability of 2/139 or
>1.438% of drawing.


Lol, ok your math tells me only a fool puts in for cal vs az,nv.
 
>>>I'm a big fan of the
>>>MM statistics purfessers. It's a
>>>genre of comedy that you
>>>just can't find anywhere else.
>>>
>>>
>>>Anyway....bring on the results!
>>
>>
>>Again, i have max pts for
>>sheep. Last year 162 max
>>pt guys put in. First
>>draw 1/162, second draw, 1/161
>>not both at 1/81. Yes,
>>super lotto is slightly different.
>>Anyone dispute my white mt.
>>Sheep odds? I put in
>>for white mtns cuz most
>>cant make the climb. Either
>>way cal is fools draw
>>vs az, nv. Goodluck to
>>all on the draw. Golden
>>bb time
>
>Addition is apparently complicated.

Add this, 10 in the book, 120 bowkills, 300 gun, 2xstate tramp champ, cover of outdoorlife 1/75. Fat figers on a phone? Yep. Wife and i knocked out t.v. he jmt last summer. I highly doubt 95% here could endure 22 nights of that pain, 6 toenails lost. Whatever, many keyboard bullies here who all would Scream for mommie after 3,000 vertical let alone 200 yards beyond a truck.
 
Given that - Rams in the White Mountains can be hunted at elevations in excess of 10,000 feet above sea level.

Given that - "High altitude produces substantial impairments in a number of cognitive performances. Changes in psycho-motor performance, mental skills, reaction time, vigilance, memory, and logical reasoning have all been measured at altitudes above 3,000 m (9,843 ft) (Bahrke and Shukitt-Hale, 1993)."

Given the intellect and humility exhibited thus far,

Shouldn't we forewarn the Mono County Search and Rescue that there is a 1 in 81 chance chance they will be called upon this August to rescue a sheep hunter or is it a 1 in 162 chance plus a 1 in 161 chance?
 
>>>>I'm a big fan of the
>>>>MM statistics purfessers. It's a
>>>>genre of comedy that you
>>>>just can't find anywhere else.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Anyway....bring on the results!
>>>
>>>
>>>Again, i have max pts for
>>>sheep. Last year 162 max
>>>pt guys put in. First
>>>draw 1/162, second draw, 1/161
>>>not both at 1/81. Yes,
>>>super lotto is slightly different.
>>>Anyone dispute my white mt.
>>>Sheep odds? I put in
>>>for white mtns cuz most
>>>cant make the climb. Either
>>>way cal is fools draw
>>>vs az, nv. Goodluck to
>>>all on the draw. Golden
>>>bb time.lol
>>
>>
>>In 2017 there were 139 max
>>point applicants for 2 preference
>>tags for the White Mtns
>>hunt. If my math
>>is correct, that equates to
>>a probability of 2/139 or
>>1.438% of drawing.
>
>
>Lol, ok your math tells me
>only a fool puts in
>for cal vs az,nv.

I stand corrected, just checked u r right. Having said that, why only 139 max pts dudes for wht mtns.? Its a ass kicker climb. Most of you couldnt make it 400 yards from a truck. My god, @59yo you would quit inside 24 hours. Can you make a bow shot@45 yards after climbing 2,000 vettical? Not. Most here are keyboard legends. Again@59, my wife and i would enjoy kicking your ass on the jmt. I doubt most here make it 4 days.
 
I've summited on Mount Williamson, Mount Tyndall and White Mountain Peak (all over 14k feet), which is the reason I apply for the lower elevation sheep hunts. Summitting a 14er in a day is a lot different than spending 5 to 10 days hunting above 12,000 feet. It would be a brutal hunt, which is why Kika Outfitters is now using horses on the White Mtn sheep hunt. Very few hunters can last more than a couple of days on that hunt hiking everyday on foot. In fact, I bet a lot of past hunters didn't even lasted a day before needing to descend due to altitude sickness.
 
>>>>>I'm a big fan of the
>>>>>MM statistics purfessers. It's a
>>>>>genre of comedy that you
>>>>>just can't find anywhere else.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Anyway....bring on the results!
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Again, i have max pts for
>>>>sheep. Last year 162 max
>>>>pt guys put in. First
>>>>draw 1/162, second draw, 1/161
>>>>not both at 1/81. Yes,
>>>>super lotto is slightly different.
>>>>Anyone dispute my white mt.
>>>>Sheep odds? I put in
>>>>for white mtns cuz most
>>>>cant make the climb. Either
>>>>way cal is fools draw
>>>>vs az, nv. Goodluck to
>>>>all on the draw. Golden
>>>>bb time.lol
>>>
>>>
>>>In 2017 there were 139 max
>>>point applicants for 2 preference
>>>tags for the White Mtns
>>>hunt. If my math
>>>is correct, that equates to
>>>a probability of 2/139 or
>>>1.438% of drawing.
>>
>>
>>Lol, ok your math tells me
>>only a fool puts in
>>for cal vs az,nv.
>
>I stand corrected, just checked u
>r right. Having said that,
>why only 139 max pts
>dudes for wht mtns.? Its
>a ass kicker climb. Most
>of you couldnt make it
>400 yards from a truck.
>My god, @59yo you would
>quit inside 24 hours. Can
>you make a bow shot@45
>yards after climbing 2,000 vettical?
>Not. Most here are keyboard
>legends. Again@59, my wife and
>i would enjoy kicking your
>ass on the jmt. I
>doubt most here make it
>4 days.

And no response from any keyboard clown wiling to climb let alone bowhunt. Typical keyboard clowns. Bringin it our stfu please. Pull your tampons out, enjoy your reality. Lol
 
>I've summited on Mount Williamson, Mount
>Tyndall and White Mountain Peak
>(all over 14k feet), which
>is the reason I apply
>for the lower elevation sheep
>hunts. Summitting a 14er
>in a day is a
>lot different than spending 5
>to 10 days hunting above
>12,000 feet. It would
>be a brutal hunt, which
>is why Kika Outfitters is
>now using horses on the
>White Mtn sheep hunt.
>Very few hunters can last
>more than a couple of
>days on that hunt hiking
>everyday on foot. In
>fact, I bet a lot
>of past hunters didn't even
>lasted a day before needing
>to descend due to altitude
>sickness.


Agreed, and thats why only 139 apllied last year. I van assure you#59, i could pack in for the month. Most of these cali keyboard mommies would crater. Most guys here are road hunters. Wanna pack 45 lbs up 3k feet???? Bring it keyboard kowboys. And make that 45 yard bow shot???? Stfu?
 
>>I've summited on Mount Williamson, Mount
>>Tyndall and White Mountain Peak
>>(all over 14k feet), which
>>is the reason I apply
>>for the lower elevation sheep
>>hunts. Summitting a 14er
>>in a day is a
>>lot different than spending 5
>>to 10 days hunting above
>>12,000 feet. It would
>>be a brutal hunt, which
>>is why Kika Outfitters is
>>now using horses on the
>>White Mtn sheep hunt.
>>Very few hunters can last
>>more than a couple of
>>days on that hunt hiking
>>everyday on foot. In
>>fact, I bet a lot
>>of past hunters didn't even
>>lasted a day before needing
>>to descend due to altitude
>>sickness.
>
>
>Agreed, and thats why only 139
>apllied last year. I van
>assure you#59, i could pack
>in for the month. Most
>of these cali keyboard mommies
>would crater. Most guys here
>are road hunters. Wanna pack
>45 lbs up 3k feet????
>Bring it keyboard kowboys. And
>make that 45 yard bow
>shot???? Stfu?
Cowboys with a capital C silly
 

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