kaibab points predictions

foundation

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As a non resident with 19 points I was hoping to draw a Kaibab late tag this year, but after reading huntin fool that's looking unlikely. Any predictions on how many points it will take this year. Am I still a few years away from a tag?
 
Last year, you possibly could have drawn a 12AW or the 12B tag with 19 points. With the good moisture this year, I expect more guys will apply for a hunt instead of buy a point, so probably some point creep. You stand a decent chance at drawing in the next 2 years unless there is a change is application patterns. Nothing is ever guaranteed when you apply for a hunt with 1-5 tags.

"You can fly a helicopter to the top of Everest and say you've been there. The problem with that is you were an a$$hole when you started and you're still an a$$hole when you get back.
Its the climb that makes you a different person". - Yvon Chouinard
 
You already know this but it's not looking good for you.
Last year 9% drew with 19 points which was 2 under max and you are 3 under.
They also cut 25 tags on the 12W late so that won't help.
I'm 2 under max and with the tag cuts and the rule changes I don't think I've gained any ground in the last few years.
All you can do is apply never know may just get lucky.
 
I drew 12b west late tag with two points 3 years ago and it a fun hunt and of corse I put in as a res for that! this year I am have that again
 

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