Kaibab-What to do this year?

rockymtnhunter

Active Member
Messages
138
Greetings to all - A bit of quandary as to what I should do this year (even though the AZ 2018 deer draw app is over a month away). 66 year old NR in good health with 4 pp going into 2018 draw. Should I continue to apply for 12AW early/late rifle, or should I go for 12A archery?

Drawing odds for NR looks like it could be another 5-15 years before I have a reasonable chance to draw a rifle tag (but lightning could strike any year). But I could probably draw an archery tag this year. Love the Kaibab archery hunt (even though it's probably the toughest Kaibab hunt). I've had many archery tags for the Kaibab (took a good 6x7 buck many years ago), my last archery tag was 2015.

But I would like to draw a rifle tag before it's ?too late?. Good weather, always see many great bucks and usually have a couple of good chances to tag a big buck. I also like the archery hunt because it gives me a great snapshot of the numbers & quality of bucks I can expect to see during the rifle hunts. Many of you know I'm usually on the Kaibab during all 3 hunts whether or not I draw a tag, but I really want an opportunity to have a tag in my pocket this fall.

Be patient or go for it? Thanks in advance for your thoughts/suggestions and good luck to everyone during the upcoming draw.
 

chipc

Very Active Member
Messages
1,023
Reading between the lines it sounds like you're leaning toward the archery tag. Based on what you've said - age, enjoyment of the archery hunt, etc... that seems like a good plan. As you know Unless you get really lucky you can probably draw that archery tag 3 times in the time it takes you to draw the rifle tag (late) once. I'd rather hunt than watch the mailbox :)
 

AZKendog

New Member
Messages
2
Wow, tough call, but if I were you, I would go early rifle first choice, archery second choice. Knowing you, I am pretty sure you will be up on the Kaibab this summer and fall regardless, but easier to justify it on the homefront if you have a tag in your pocket!!

I have similar decisions to make now that I used all my points last year - hold out for another late tag that took me 12 years to draw, or put in for hunts where I can hunt practically every year. I will probably start building points again and just tag along with my kids and friends on their hunts until I draw another Kaibab tag.

And just so you know, both my boys will likely be putting in the for the early 12AW hunt so you have an open invite if you want to join us in camp and be part of the hunt if they draw.
 

rockymtnhunter

Active Member
Messages
138
Thanks for the advice & invite - I've got it in my planner. BTW I took a trip to Jumpup Pt in mid-Feb just to see what was going on during this winter, nice weather & dry. A little surprised at what I saw - and the FS graded the road all the way to the pt! 1st time I've ever seen it maintained.
 

Deerdon

Active Member
Messages
307
LAST EDITED ON Apr-03-18 AT 07:44PM (MST)[p]Just FYI: 4 points was not a guaranteed early archery tag last year. In fact only one person, out of 17 I knew, drew with 4 points...including myself. (most of us were non-residents)
 

HalfAce

Very Active Member
Messages
1,130
That's a tough one Dan. There are soo many variables.

The same question has crossed my mind the last few years. I'll be short on time this summer for sure, so Archery is out for me.

I haven't been paying as much attention to what the winter/moisture has been like up there on the plateau this year. But I'm sure snow is in shorter supply than normal. The two areas over in Utah just North of the plateau are at 53% and 46% of normal snow fall. Everyone seems to have their own theories when it comes to antler growth & moisture. But it might be a good year to sit this one out?

The only problem with that is, if you did sit out, next year you would have 5 points. 5 points is that tipping point where you start thinkin about maybe holding on to them until you draw Early rifle...

Can you be up there for the whole archery hunt? Would you be able to scout as much as you normally do?

You know that place better than anyone here, and you know that Archery hunt can be tough. I guess it all comes down to if you have a lot of time, and if you think you can get lucky n' get a good one with archery tackle this year when winter and spring have been dry...

BTW i sent you a PM on that other site.
 

Dikndirt

Active Member
Messages
421
The data that I read shows 47% of nonresidents with 4 points drew an archery tag last year. Resident odds were slightly higher.If the trend continues and tag numbers are cut any further you might need at least 5-6 points to draw.I am in the same boat as a n/r with 4 points I am crossing my fingers on drawing but have backup plan in place cause I am not very lucky in the draws.
 

Zim

Very Active Member
Messages
2,009
LAST EDITED ON Apr-04-18 AT 02:44PM (MST)[p]I was fortunate enough to draw archery with only 2 NR points last year. Will be trying again this year.
 

rockymtnhunter

Active Member
Messages
138
Appreciate the feedback thus far from y'all, some good suggestions. I sorta hate to play the hunt draw calculus "game" every year, i.e. preference points vs drawing odds vs NR quotas, vs my age vs odds vs point creep vs tag #'s and so on drives me crazy. But I guess that's the nature of the game these days.

But the allure of the Kaibab keeps me in the game every year, irregardless of whether I have a tag in my pocket or not.
 

MIG

Active Member
Messages
118
I would do late rifle and then early rifle. Early rifle only takes 7-8 points i believe. I know several people that were in the same boat and waited till rifle season. A lot better looking through a scope than a peep.
 

DonMartin

Very Active Member
Messages
2,122
I had a NR hunter for the late west side Kaibab that drew with 4 points I think!

He passed 143 bucks on his hunt. Can you say SELECTIVE?

Don Martin
Arizona Wildlife Outfitters
 

LVTHNT

Active Member
Messages
233
Dan,

I would recommend that you put in for 12AW Late first choice, 12AW Early second. Sounds like you are very familiar with the draw odds but others may not be. The Kaibab archery deer hunt last year took 6 points for a NR to guarantee the tag in the bonus pass, while the early rifle took 10 points and the late rifle took 20 points. The early hunt is getting better and better each year with the number of bucks on the Kaibab. You have 10-30% drawing odds for a NR with 5-9 points. If you have 4 points I would hang in there for an early rifle tag, if you get real lucky maybe a late tag. You won't see 100 bucks during the early hunt like you can on the late hunt but you can see 40-50 bucks and you can kill a 180? buck. We killed this 191? buck last year on the early Kaibab hunt. NR are missing out on a great opportunity not putting in for the early Kaibab hunts and just holding out for the late Kaibab hunts or worse yet a 13B tag that they will never draw!

Good luck with the draw this year!


http://www.monstermuleys.info/photos/user_photos_2018/56038jerry1.jpg

High Point Outfitters.net
 

HalfAce

Very Active Member
Messages
1,130
Lvthnt, you couldn't get your guy any closer to the edge? Would make for a great photo! :p

It took 10 points to guarantee the early tag last year? Well then it doesn't sound like NR's are missing out on the good opportunity. It took only 7 in 2015. Guys are getting with the program.

Great buck btw.
 

GOutes

Active Member
Messages
263
Dan,
When you draw, let me know.

I will gladly come down and scout/glass for you. You were an amazing asset to my hunt.

I still owe you some Alaskan Halibut/Salmon!
 

rockymtnhunter

Active Member
Messages
138
I agree the early rifle hunt has potential to yield a great buck - here's a 2015 early rifle buck, they don't come much better than this. Chased him during the archery hunt but couldn't close the deal.

7131620151023095812.jpg
 

tph247

Member
Messages
11
If I knew how to post pictures on this site, I would post the one of Dan and I with that buck. That was one of the most memorable hunts in my life, and Dan's was a huge reason why it was successful.

As far as to put in for archery or rifle, of course I am in the same boat as you with 4 points and I am going to hold out for a rifle tag. I have been luck to draw the rifle tag twice, but with the new draw procedure who knows when to expect another tag?. The Kaibab is indeed a special place and my goal is to get back there as soon as possible.
 

jvgunner

Member
Messages
74
Hi rockymthunter did you decide on the draw? Only 2 days remaining. I still have not put in with 16, waiting til the last minute.
 

rockymtnhunter

Active Member
Messages
138
Well, I finally wrestled this question to the ground; thought about all the suggestions y'all made - lots of good ideas. Final equation factored in my age, health, PP (4), drawing odds, this year's weather/drought, prior archery/rifle experiences, 2017 bucks seen/taken, and the "X" factor...

The result? for 2018, 1st choice=12AW Late, 2nd Choice=12AW Early.

Know I'm fighting the odds with both choices, but maybe lady luck & lightning will be kind to me this year. I'll be taking 2 pre-season scouting trips in July to scope things for this fall's hunts. Hoping for a robust monsoon this year.

Love the Kaibab archery hunt, but it's a tough hunt (at least for me). Always see plenty of big bucks, but hard to put it all together on them, but it's fun trying!

BTW - here's tph247 with his 2015 early rifle buck.

41541201510230753087.jpg


Good luck to all!
 

jvgunner

Member
Messages
74
I like the choices rockymthunter!, After I leave this post I will put in for 12b & 12 aw late with 16. With the drought in mind, the strip receiving more rain than the kaibab has received & Applegate late muzzle loader tags nearly in hand for my wife & I, not having the time I wanted to spend scouting before the season. So I rolled the dice. It's going to be a rough 30 days if pulled for both! NOT!
 

Largebull

Active Member
Messages
352
I drew somebody's 12 A WEST late rifle tag. I think it was mine tho. Had 11 Res. points. Allready have everything lined up With profesional help. I will be 62 in Sept. and only hunted Bab once 25 years ago archery. Don't know it so at My age I jumped at an outfitter right away . I may never get the hunt again.Good luck to all.........BULL!
 

Beavinaz

Member
Messages
41
>Well, I finally wrestled this question
>to the ground; thought about
>all the suggestions y'all made
>- lots of good ideas.
>Final equation factored in my
>age, health, PP (4), drawing
>odds, this year's weather/drought, prior
>archery/rifle experiences, 2017 bucks seen/taken,
>and the "X" factor...
>
>The result? for 2018, 1st choice=12AW
>Late, 2nd Choice=12AW Early.
>
>Know I'm fighting the odds with
>both choices, but maybe lady
>luck & lightning will be
>kind to me this year.
>I'll be taking 2 pre-season
>scouting trips in July to
>scope things for this fall's


>hunts. Hoping for a robust
>monsoon this year.
>
>Love the Kaibab archery hunt, but
>it's a tough hunt (at
>least for me). Always see
>plenty of big bucks, but
>hard to put it all
>together on them, but it's
>fun trying!
>
>BTW - here's tph247 with his
>2015 early rifle buck.
>
>
41541201510230753087.jpg

>
>Good luck to all!

That is exactly what I am hoping for this fall. Will be up there scouting this fall before the season opens.
 

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