Max Points - Residents

wybighorn

Active Member
Messages
341
LAST EDITED ON Mar-05-12 AT 10:54AM (MST)[p]A question for all of you out there. How high will preference points go? In other words, say someone starting buying points this year, how long would it take them before everyone else had drawn and they were at max points? (assuming they never drew a tag in the random draw.)

For the 2012 year (Residents): 148 people have max points for sheep and 261 people have max points for moose.

The WGFD gave 192 resident sheep tags and 432 moose tags (including cow/calf tags)across the state in 2011.

I know that people who are just "hoarding" points makes it a little harder to determine, but my guess is that preference points won't go much higher than they already are (for residents).

What do you think?

(Data comes from the demand index and the preference point totals on the WGFD website)
 
Depends on species but most states are approaching 20 years and have decades to go.

Wenaha Elk in Oregon is close to a 150 year wait if you started today.
 
I'd say another 10 or so. Some guys are holding out for sheep area 12 and the same with moose 38. As you noted some guys are hoarding points and you'll probably have some max points guys switch over from other areas as the odds improve in 12 & 38. However, I'd bet 70 - 80% will be gone in 3 - 4 years. Haven't looked at the numbers, but I'd think the guys in the one point less than max group are going almost as fast at least with sheep.
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-05-12 AT 12:10PM (MST)[p]TripleBB---You might want to look at stats before you make statements like that! How could that big percentage be gone in that short amount of time when there are so many people with a lot of PPs and very few permits issued? It looks like it could take a lifetime to get one tag in a lot of the units and that's if things stay the same way as far as number of tags issued. If tags decrease, it may get impossible for anyone new to the PP game to draw. As an example, in the Resident PP Draw last year there were roughly 135 sheep tags issued and there are still roughly 4,500 people left in the pool that haven't drawn. In the NR PP Draw there were a lot fewer tags issued and there are still roughly 1700 left in the pool awaiting their chance to draw a tag. Either pool is going to take a lot longer than 10 years to even come close to getting down to people that are just starting out.
 
wybighorn,

Good question and one that really can't be answered, well at least not answered with any kind of accuracy...It looks like you have already did some looking into it through the G&F data. With the question you asked (if I understand it correctly) is if someone was going to start getting points now and how long it will take for them to get a tag with the folks who already are ahead of them with points? well I would look at it this way and this assuming there is no random draw: Right now there is with sheep 10,129 residents with points (1-17 points) there is 192 resident tags/year given out (using your number and that varies each year) so take 10,129 divide by 192 tags/year comes out as 52.75 years to draw everyone out. Now of course we know people will drop out of the preference system as time goes on, and there is more popular areas that take the brunt of the applications,but its going to take some years to get a tag if you were to start today buying points....That is why this system is flawed for our kids and beginners who are just starting to apply. I know this don't answer the question and as I mentioned I don't think it can be answered accuratly, I just looked at as the simpliest way to come up with a number of years...
 
wyo-bulls---Could you please tell me where you got those numbers you mentioned for residents with PPs? Thanks!
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-05-12 AT 03:26PM (MST)[p]TOPGUN, got on the WG&F website. you go to Hunting Page; on Right side there is a "License Information" and under thatt hit "2012 Draw- Prefernce Point Total" that will take you to another page, hit "Sheep and Moose" that will bring up PP totals for both Res and NonRes....
 
All of these numbers count on the system staying the way it is. I don't see that happening as it will be to dismal for new comers so they will change it up to keep the new revenue coming in. DZ
 
My mistake top. I meant to put it could take the max points holders another 10 years. Shoulda been obvious because I'm talking about the one point less than max guys at the end of the post. Sorry about the confusion...
 
LAST EDITED ON Mar-05-12 AT 05:19PM (MST)[p]wyo-bulls---Thanks! I have missed that area in the past. That explains why your numbers were a lot higher than what I stated since a lot of people are buying PPs and not putting into the draws where I got the numbers I mentioned. Your numbers even make it a lot worse when all of those others actually start putting in for the draw!

Triple_BB---I'd been going back and forth in a bunch of threads and websites and took your post as replying directly to the OP question as to how long it would be before he got a chance and thought the 10 years was for him, rather than just to get the max PP people taken care of. Thanks for the clarification, as I probably should have been able to figure out what you meant since you're pretty good on this stuff!!!
 
I'm sure you've all thought about this but there are other factors. ie; age and death = attrition.

Many of the points holders are older (whatever that means to you). Most will probably drop before they pop a permit.

I have a son who has 12 pts (nr) and I suspect he'll draw in 10 or 12 years but if guys are very much older or too much more behind on points they'll kick the bucket and allow the younger hunters to get tags.

Just a thought,
Zeke

PS; sorry but I can't answer your question directly. Too many variables.
 

Wyoming Hunting Guides & Outfitters

Badger Creek Outfitters

Offering elk, deer and pronghorn hunts on several privately owned ranches.

Urge 2 Hunt

We focus on trophy elk, mule deer, antelope and moose hunts and take B&C bucks most years.

J & J Outfitters

Offering quality fair-chase hunts for trophy mule deer, elk, and moose in Wyoming.


Yellowstone Horse Rentals - Western Wyoming Horses
Back
Top Bottom