NM Draw Odds

dillon

Very Active Member
Messages
1,338
FYI www.toprut.com just published the New Mexico draw odds data. If you want to improve your odds it looks like you should not apply as a group and order your choices from hardest to easiest. Good luck fellow MMers.
 
That is 100% incorrect. You should always load up your application with the most applicants. Your third choice should be the hardest to draw.

Tell your friends
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-14-17 AT 10:32PM (MST)[p]>FYI www.toprut.com just published the New
>Mexico draw odds data.
>If you want to improve
>your odds it looks like
>you should not apply as
>a group and order your
>choices from hardest to easiest.
> Good luck fellow MMers.
>

That's a great service now with the complete draw simulation. The effect of group applications for residents is usually quite small as the number of tags issued it typically >20. When the tag numbers get < 10 or so, the effect can become significant.

The issue of how to order your hunt choices has been discussed before, but surprisingly about 50% of the residents don't know how to do it. Well, maybe it's not so surprising.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-14-17 AT 10:41PM (MST)[p]TopRut will have their simulator online in a cpl days. Put in your choices and it suggests the order and spits out the odds.

FREE

And don't forget to get your unit overlay packages as well.

also FREE
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-15-17 AT 08:40AM (MST)[p]At the end of the day 84% of all tags go to NM residents. Of the remaining 16%, 10 of that goes to NR with and outfitter , and then 6% to DYS NR hunters.The mock draw/simulator does absolutely NOTHING other than give false hope.There is no way for any of these to go off of as they are using prior years numbers.Total number of applications to hunt codes change every year and I just think these are telling hunters a false wonder.....Apply using all 3 hunt choices, put your wish list hunt 1st,2nd,3rd....For example many people do not know the northern NM cow hunts are harder to draw than many bull hunts and throw those hunt codes down as their third choice.Im saying its a true lotto drawing, ...It changes from year to year...
 
It's a crap shoot. I've put in many different ways to draw a elk Bow gila tag for 11 years now with no luck. Put the wife in for rifle gila and drew it 3 years in a row. WTF now she has 3 bulls bigger than mine in 3 years of hunting to my 30 years. Life is just not fair. Lol
 
>....The mock
>draw/simulator does absolutely NOTHING other
>than give false hope.There is
>no way for any of
>these to go off of
>as they are using prior
>years numbers.

As all of the investment houses say; "Past performance is not always indicative of future results"!

But to say it does "NOTHING other than give false hope" is....false IMO. The draw odds (and #applicants) for a lot of hunts is remarkably stable, bouncing around just a few percent from year-to-year. Sure there are some exceptions, and tag #'s and hunt structures change over time. The service noted above gives you 4 years of history, so you can decide at least what odds were in the past, and if there is any discernible trend.
 
I read the article. I didn't realize the issue about group applicants. I had always thought of number of applicants as number of applicants and hadnt factored that into the equation. Honesty I've been way more impressed with toprut and their data/info and its accuracy than gohunt and its free! Now I will say gohunt has more than just draw odds
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-15-17 AT 07:06PM (MST)[p]What don't you like about GoHunt? I've been really happy with their odds. As far as I know, they are the only one that show the true odds for NV. The other states seem to be very reliable as well.

GoHunt and Toprut will likely force the other services to improve their analysis. Most of the others have misleading odds, especially Huntin Fool. Huntin Fool's half-a$$ed approach dramatically overstates the draw odds in NM, NV, and ID. At least they did when I was a member.
 
I've already put a deposit down on a BC moose hunt for this October, and part of the bargaining with my sweet wife was that I would forgo putting in all NM draw hunts except for oryx and OILs. Well, with the two new Governors tags for deer and elk this year, I'm counting on the rest of you all to think that there is no way you're willing to waste one of your choices on such low odds... ;-)
 
>LAST EDITED ON Feb-15-17
>AT 07:06?PM (MST)

>
>What don't you like about GoHunt?
> I've been really happy
>with their odds. As
>far as I know, they
>are the only one that
>show the true odds for
>NV. The other states
>seem to be very reliable
>as well.
>
>GoHunt and Toprut will likely force
>the other services to improve
>their analysis. Most of
>the others have misleading odds,
>especially Huntin Fool. Huntin
>Fool's half-a$$ed approach dramatically overstates
>the draw odds in NM,
>NV, and ID. At
>least they did when I
>was a member.

I can't speak for Huntin fool. As far as gohunt, I just wasn't overly impressed with the overall content and it seems they put a lot of emphasis on the giveaways each month and not so much the content for the price they charge. I like the layout of the draw odds on toprut better and they seem to explain how they calculate their odds better. I feel toprut odds are way more detailed. Now I haven't been on gohunt since last year and I know they have changed things up since then so may be a lot better now. Last year their odds for NM simply calculated was 1st choice odds vs 1st choice applicants and second choice odds vs just second choice applicants, same for third choice. And that isn't even close to being a correct assessment but it could be diff now. Like I say, I got off there after that
 
I have go hunt now. It is far more accurate than top rut. Anybody can spit out odds and say for example this color your between 20-40% draw odds. That's a big difference to me. The way gohunt does is it is treating all your choice basically like it was your 1st choice since it all matters to when your app is pooled. However not sure that is worth the $$$ they ask to join
 
GoHunt also has some great content. They just don't have enough of it. But i hope that changes as they grow. $150 is a little steep, but i guess they do offer a ton of prizes.
 
"I have go hunt now. It is far more accurate than top rut. Anybody can spit out odds and say for example this color your between 20-40% draw odds. That's a big difference to me. The way gohunt does is it is treating all your choice basically like it was your 1st choice since it all matters to when your app is pooled. However not sure that is worth the $$$ they ask to join"

Click on the "list view" on Toprut to get odds as a percentage. Click on "list view" then "more info" for the NR pools for AZ. goHUNT doesn't currently include that data but I suspect they will next year. Pretty important info if you want to know where you are in the mix, or if everybody ahead of you drew and your odds went from 0% to 100%.

Both companies have their place.
 
That's a great article and nice map tool. Thanks for passing it along.

I'm amazed how many people don't bother to learn the NM Proc guidelines. One guy I know, a smart professor who had been hunting for YEARS, didn't believe me about the importance of ordering his choices. No wonder he kept drawing the cow hunt he always entered first.
 
>One guy I know, a smart professor who
>had been hunting for YEARS,
>didn't believe me about the
>importance of ordering his choices.
>No wonder he kept drawing
>the cow hunt he always
>entered first.

Yes, I lot of people have the mistaken impression that your 3 choices are treated like 3 separate applications (or 3 ping pong balls in the hopper). I confess I also had that incorrect picture in my head at one time, you only get "one ball", with 3 ordered choices written on it.
 
Nice looking site....odds are way off though. A good attempt but the numbers are about 10% of on average across the units we checked. 20-40% chances for gila archery elk and 60% chance 16B and 16E...yeah right. The numbers on the game and fish odds report dispute that sites claims in about every category I checked.

Anyway, nice looking site but it's bogus as far as odds are concerned.
 
>Nice looking site....odds are way off
>though. A good attempt but
>the numbers are about 10%
>of on average across the
>units we checked. 20-40% chances
>for gila archery elk and
>60% chance 16B and 16E...yeah
>right. The numbers on the
>game and fish odds report
>dispute that sites claims in
>about every category I checked.
>
>
>Anyway, nice looking site but it's
>bogus as far as odds
>are concerned.

If you think that is true, call them on it by contacting them directly and see what they have to say. You might be surprised, or they may say Oops, we were wrong. It certainly is a great site, so if they are really wrong, they will be willing to correct that I am sure


txhunter58

venor, ergo sum (I hunt, therefore I am)
 
>Nice looking site....odds are way off
>though. A good attempt but
>the numbers are about 10%
>of on average across the
>units we checked. 20-40% chances
>for gila archery elk and
>60% chance 16B and 16E...yeah
>right. The numbers on the
>game and fish odds report
>dispute that sites claims in
>about every category I checked.
>
>
>Anyway, nice looking site but it's
>bogus as far as odds
>are concerned.

Yes, I think the TopRut numbers are probably accurate, and in fact the 16B & 16E archery odds for 1st hunt are ~60% (for residents).

If I had to guess you are computing odds by dividing total resident tags issued by the total number of residents applicants (all choices). This is also what Hunter's Trailhead (HT) does, and it tends to substantially underestimate your odds, often by as much as 2X. Referring to the excel spreadsheet from NMGF this is taking column AB (resident tags issued) and dividing it by columns G+H+I (sum of resident applicants).

If you are doing something else describe it please.

The problem with this method is that many of the applicants in column H(2nd choice) and I(3rd choice) drew their 1st choice, so the denominator is not as large as you think it is. There is really no way of predicting the outcome ahead of time using just these 4 columns (AB,G,H,I).

You can actually use the outcome from the NMGF drawing to estimate 1st choice draw odds by dividing the number who actually drew 1st choice, which is column X (Post-draw Successful applicant, Resident 1st choice), by the number of 1st choice applicants (Column G). This X/G method works best for residents, and for higher demand hunts. For "lower demand" hunts where a large fraction of tags are drawn as 2nd and 3rd choice the X/G ratio starts to become less reliable due to statistical variations. Being able to run the draw over and over again (1000's of time) can average out these fluctuations and yield reliable numbers. To my understanding that is what TopRut is doing when they say they are running a "simulation". I would guess goHunt (another site that produces odds, at a cost) is doing something similar.

The comparison of the 3 methods for 16B yields;

TopRut = 60.6%, NMGF(X/G)=63.9%, and HT(AB/G+H+I)=31.0%

For 16E the results are:

TopRut = 69.7%, NMGF(X/G)=60.0%, and HT(AB/G+H+I)=35.7%

So there is fair agreement between the TopRut and NMGF(X/G) values, in the 60-70% range, whereas the HT ratio is about half those values.
 
This is so fun, just put in for where you want to hunt and have fun. It's a lottery, it all comes down to when your number is picked.

--Bill
 
>That is 100% incorrect. You should
>always load up your application
>with the most applicants. Your
>third choice should be the
>hardest to draw.
>
>Tell your friends


???????
 
I thought this was a pretty good explanation of the NM drawing system. I hope not many people read it.

Like some others I've always thought a lot of people didn't know how it worked. If everyone starts doing it correctly then my odds will go down.
 
Ok...let's look at a few. This is how I'm calculating these, and how I was told (by someone close to the draw process) to look at them. This was 3-4 yrs ago while getting my guide license mind you, but nothing has changed that I'm aware of.

16B Archery - Sept 1-14, ELK-2-2-244
Total Tags - 225, 84% go to residents = 189 tags.

Since it's completely plausible for someone to draw this tag as a 3rd choice before someone draws it as a first choice (taken straight from G&F home page on draw process), you must include all resident apps in the draw odds calculation process.

First choice resident apps: 158
Second Choice Resident apps: 194
Third Choice Resident apps: 258

Total Resident apps - 606

189/606 = 31.19%; Big difference from the listed 50%.

Let's look at another:

------------------------------------------------------------
16B Archery 2nd Hunt Q/HD- Sept 15-24, ELK-2-2-245
Total Tags - 165, 84% go to residents = 138.6 = 139 Tags

First choice resident apps: 233
Second Choice Resident apps: 256
Third Choice Resident apps: 177

Total Resident apps - 666

139/666 = 20.87%; 15% discrepancy
-----------------------------------------------------------

16B Rifle First Hunt: Oct 15-19, ELK-1-246
Total Tags - 160, 84% go to residents = 134.4 Tags

Resident 1st Choice Apps: 452
Resident 2nd Choice Apps: 322
Resident 3rd Choice Apps: 305

Total Resident Apps: 1079
134.4 (call it 135) /1079 = 12.51% - Close to 10% disparity.

Since all three choices are at play and you could potentially draw your third choice before I draw my first, all applications are at play.

As I said, that site is 10-20% off. And how many of us sit around pissed off not drawing an elk tag every year? If the draw odds were really 50%, especially in HD areas like the Gila, 34, Valles Caldera etc do you really think we'd have that gripe? Based on the numbers we'd all hunt elk every 2 yrs. Unit 6, all of the 16's, 34, 15....all very similar. They are closest in unit 34 and 36 for bull elk but still off by 5-10%. I'm not trying to take away from that particular site, but filling people with false hopes of 20-50% draw odds (or higher) for some of the most high demand units in the state is simply incorrect. I guess for the ultimate optimist these numbers are a ray of sunshine, but for someone who draws an elk tag once every 5-6 yrs, these odds match up with me and most of us around here.


These numbers were taken directly from the 2016 Complete draw odds report. I didn't change them in anyway. Just showing how I've been calculating the odds based off the info I was given.
 
Man ,I can not believe people are actually so stupid to publicly announce to the entire world the break down and best possible draw odd for a specific UNIT, A GILA UNIT, at that . If someone is smart enough and puts the effort into figuring out on their own good for them!! To put this crap up for everyone to see makes me sick to my stomach!!! I can't believe the amount of ignorance bred into people these days. This post makes me want to throw up!! Wow!!!
 
>Man ,I can not believe people
>are actually so stupid to
>publicly announce to the entire
>world the break down and
>best possible draw odd for
>a specific UNIT, A GILA
>UNIT, at that . If
>someone is smart enough and
>puts the effort into figuring
>out on their own good
>for them!! To put this
>crap up for everyone to
>see makes me sick to
>my stomach!!! I can't believe
>the amount of ignorance bred
>into people these days. This
>post makes me want to
>throw up!! Wow!!!


I tend to agree here . I am all for helping people in a unit and pointing them in the right direction but doing a full on breakdown of how the draw works and actual odds are calculated only decreases the odds further for all of us here that actually put the time to figure the math out .
Secondly i think it also reinforces the behavior of lets come to a website and ask for everyone honey holes which we all know happens a ton as well laziness doesnt pay for all of us.

Even more reasons not to not squeal on a spot area or goldmine we may have. People if you do help which many of us do, I encourage to help via PM . as all of us on here work hard to find and do the whole process including odds start to finish
 
>>Man ,I can not believe people
>>are actually so stupid to
>>publicly announce to the entire
>>world the break down and
>>best possible draw odd for
>>a specific UNIT, A GILA
>>UNIT, at that . If
>>someone is smart enough and
>>puts the effort into figuring
>>out on their own good
>>for them!! To put this
>>crap up for everyone to
>>see makes me sick to
>>my stomach!!! I can't believe
>>the amount of ignorance bred
>>into people these days. This
>>post makes me want to
>>throw up!! Wow!!!
>
>
>I tend to agree here .
>I am all for
>helping people in a unit
>and pointing them in the
>right direction but doing a
>full on breakdown of how
>the draw works and actual
>odds are calculated only
>decreases the odds further for
>all of us here that
>actually put the time to
>figure the math out .
>
>Secondly i think it also reinforces
>the behavior of lets come
>to a website and ask
>for everyone honey holes which
>we all know happens a
>ton as well laziness doesnt
>pay for all of us.
>
>
>Even more reasons not to not
>squeal on a spot area
>or goldmine we may have.
>People if you do help
>which many of us do,
>I encourage to help
>via PM . as all
>of us on here work
>hard to find and do
>the whole process including odds
> start to finish

+1 absolutely!
 
Agree. I wish it would say how difficult that unit is to hunt also. It says wilderness for a reason. I bet this gets a bunch of tags wasted by people not putting forth the effort to hunt this unit accordingly.

I've drawn this unit before and was lucky enough to draw it again last year. I shot a bull opening morning and came back out to base camp on the second day and stayed there for a few days. I couldnt believe how many people were road hunting!
 
>Agree. I wish it would say
>how difficult that unit is
>to hunt also. It says
>wilderness for a reason. I
>bet this gets a bunch
>of tags wasted by people
>not putting forth the effort
>to hunt this unit accordingly.
>
>
>I've drawn this unit before and
>was lucky enough to draw
>it again last year. I
>shot a bull opening morning
>and came back out to
>base camp on the second
>day and stayed there for
>a few days. I couldnt
>believe how many people were
>road hunting!


It's absolutely ignorant to post this type of stuff . People's hard work ,dedication, all out the window for some fool to go public with draw odds and a break down because he felt smart and wanted to show off. ?
 
>>Agree. I wish it would say
>>how difficult that unit is
>>to hunt also. It says
>>wilderness for a reason. I
>>bet this gets a bunch
>>of tags wasted by people
>>not putting forth the effort
>>to hunt this unit accordingly.
>>
>>
>>I've drawn this unit before and
>>was lucky enough to draw
>>it again last year. I
>>shot a bull opening morning
>>and came back out to
>>base camp on the second
>>day and stayed there for
>>a few days. I couldnt
>>believe how many people were
>>road hunting!
>
>
>It's absolutely ignorant to post
>this type of stuff .
>People's hard work ,dedication, all
>out the window for some
>fool to go public with
>draw odds and a break
>down because he felt smart
>and wanted to show off.
>?

I was agreeing with you...
 
>>>Agree. I wish it would say
>>>how difficult that unit is
>>>to hunt also. It says
>>>wilderness for a reason. I
>>>bet this gets a bunch
>>>of tags wasted by people
>>>not putting forth the effort
>>>to hunt this unit accordingly.
>>>
>>>
>>>I've drawn this unit before and the
>>>was lucky enough to draw
>>>it again last year. I
>>>shot a bull opening morning
>>>and came back out to
>>>base camp on the second
>>>day and stayed there for
>>>a few days. I couldnt
>>>believe how many people were
>>>road hunting!
>>
>>
>>It's absolutely ignorant to post
>>this type of stuff .
>>People's hard work ,dedication, all
>>out the window for some
>>fool to go public with
>>draw odds and a break
>>down because he felt smart
>>and wanted to show off.
>>?
>
>I was agreeing with you...

I know brother ,I was just venting some more!!! THANK you
 
Just so everyone knows, I cannot remove posts. Those have to be removed by Brian (AKA Founder). If you want to remove a post message him and request it.

In my opinion, all of these odds are so easily available, I cannot see how it would make a difference by posting them. Actually, making a big deal about it would bring it to someones attention more than just arbitrary odds on some unit.

But, that is just my opinion, and I could be wrong. I sure never look at public info as any big secret.

Just to prove my point, I wont be putting in for 16B. :)

Seriously, if you really want a post removed message Brian.
 
>
>In my opinion, all of these
>odds are so easily available,
>I cannot see how it
>would make a difference by
>posting them. Actually, making
>a big deal about it
>would bring it to someones
>attention more than just arbitrary
>odds on some unit.
>

I was about to say the same thing, but was afraid it would stir the pot even more!
 
I agree. I just don't see the big deal concerning odds. There's so many ways u can calculate them and everyone has a diff opinion about to go about it. I think toprut has provided valuable insight into some facets of the draw I hadn't considered in the past. Not that it will influence where I apply but it is helpful. The best units historically are no secret in any state. Posting draw odds and GPS coordinates to a particular place are two diff things. The more educated ppl are will benefit everyone in the long run. some of the other 16 units probably have similar draw odds and some have worse. And there are plenty of units that have better draw odds than B. Just depends on what u r looking for in a hunt
 
Completely agree with Paul. Not that hard to find or figure out. I also will not be putting in there because of this post. And actually the post that started the rants was pointing out that the odds are actually worse then what would be found on other sites. So you should be thanking him by saying odds are about 20 percent worse.
 
"First choice resident apps: 158
Second Choice Resident apps: 194
Third Choice Resident apps: 258

Total Resident apps - 606

189/606 = 31.19%;"

You might take a minute to think about the process and what happens to the app and tag pools as people draw out.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-21-17 AT 08:44PM (MST)[p]>
>It's absolutely ignorant to post
>this type of stuff .
>People's hard work ,dedication, all
>out the window for some
>fool to go public with
>draw odds and a break
>down because he felt smart
>and wanted to show off.
>?


take a breath

Anybody that's spent 5 minutes on the draw knows you can't calculate NM odds by dividing total tags by total apps for anybody but the 1st guy in the stack.
 
Funny to see the outrage all of the sudden. This site is just great to cyber scout, the information people offer is just amazing. Then there is all this sense of personal violation because somebody explained how to add and divide. Beautiful!!!
 
Obviously some people WERE confused on the draw process, and couldn't figure out how to calculate odds , this is why this post we was erected in the first place. I agree it's not rocket science to some to figure the CLOSEST draw percentages, because an exact calculation is impossible, but to others it just may be. To actually take a unit , calculate, and post it is nothing short of stupid. I've helped numbers of people in this website over the years and love doing it. There are ways to do that without blurting this type of information out for all to see.
 
Okay, here is my theory on it for what it is worth.

The vast majority of people put in for a draw for the following reasons.
They have prior experience there.
Their cousin told them it was a great place.
A friend has prior experience there.
It is close, dates are good, etc...

Very few people apply because of odds, and those are more likely to scrutinize their choice and have a plan, and not just base it on some stuff they heard on the internet.

The odds are so easy to get. Yes, NM is one of the toughest to calculate EXACT odds because of the 2nd and 3rd choice, but, there are several websites that give you odds. They are no mystery at all to those type of hunters. The other type are more likely to apply for the first reasons I posted, or based on pics of a big animal on facebook, or someone making a big deal about a unit.

Half the battle is being smart about your applications and drawing a good tag. Someone posting a screen shot of odds really does not make a difference. I would think someone talking about a unit, or acting secretive about it, would intrigue people a lot more than just a screen shot. But, hey, I could be wrong.
 
First of all, I don't believe that the whole world actually reads the New Mexico forum. I always ask hunters I encounter in the field if they ever get on this site, and most of the time the answer is no.

Second, I'm a firm believer in rule that 10 percent of the hunters kill 90 percent of the animals, and it's the same 10 percent every year. Figuring out how that works is your most important step. Most of us know someone like that, so be nice to one of them and maybe they'll be willing to share some of their wisdom.

Finally, I've studied NM's draw process quite a bit over the years. The best that I've been able to come up with is to build up a history over several years and then run a Monte Carlo simulation, paying close attention to trends. But given the unpredictable preferences of applicants in any given year, it's still just a turd short of a total crap shoot.

It's something the nerd in me kind of enjoys doing anyway, but simple common sense tells me that the incremental amount that I've actually increased my drawing odds is not worth all of the effort I've burned putting the whole model together.

My advice is still to pick a unit that has reasonable draw odds and then spend boots on the ground learning as much as you can about how animals there behave. Do this and odds are you'll get your shot.
 
>Okay, here is my theory on
>it for what it is
>worth.
>
>The vast majority of people put
>in for a draw for
>the following reasons.
>They have prior experience there.
>Their cousin told them it was
>a great place.
>A friend has prior experience there.
>
>It is close, dates are good,
>etc...
>
>Very few people apply because of
>odds, and those are more
>likely to scrutinize their choice
>and have a plan, and
>not just base it on
>some stuff they heard on
>the internet.
>
>The odds are so easy to
>get. Yes, NM is
>one of the toughest to
>calculate EXACT odds because of
>the 2nd and 3rd choice,
>but, there are several websites
>that give you odds.
>They are no mystery at
>all to those type of
>hunters. The other type
>are more likely to apply
>for the first reasons I
>posted, or based on pics
>of a big animal on
>facebook, or someone making a
>big deal about a unit.
>
>
>Half the battle is being smart
>about your applications and drawing
>a good tag. Someone
>posting a screen shot of
>odds really does not make
>a difference. I would
>think someone talking about a
>unit, or acting secretive about
>it, would intrigue people a
>lot more than just a
>screen shot. But, hey,
>I could be wrong.

Paul,

Yup, well said. My feelings exactly.

--Bill
 
These guys with their secret units and honey holes are too much. Probably the same type that get pissed off whenever they encounter other hunter in "their spot"...on public land.

I agree that there is too much stock put into how many people actually read this forum, and that the original point was to prove that the odds weren't as favorable as these odds sites are stating.

I am also aware that the proc clearly states that 16B is a wilderness hunt, and cautions applicants to take that into consideration before applying. I've known many who have mistakenly drawn that unit, went in totally unprepared, and came back swearing that they would never apply for that hunt again.
 
>These guys with their secret units
>and honey holes are too
>much. Probably the same
>type that get pissed off
>whenever they encounter other hunter
>in "their spot"...on public land.
>
>
>I agree that there is too
>much stock put into how
>many people actually read this
>forum, and that the original
>point was to prove that
>the odds weren't as favorable
>as these odds sites are
>stating.
>
>I am also aware that the
>proc clearly states that 16B
>is a wilderness hunt, and
>cautions applicants to take that
>into consideration before applying.
>I've known many who have
>mistakenly drawn that unit, went
>in totally unprepared, and came
>back swearing that they would
>never apply for that hunt
>again.


Sounds like you wouldn't mind letting us know what your elk AP is gonna look like this year ? Where you putting in ? If you draw your first choice where you planning to hunt? I mean it's not that big a deal ,so I wouldn't mind hearing about it.
 
>These guys with their secret units
>and honey holes are too
>much. Probably the same
>type that get pissed off
>whenever they encounter other hunter
>in "their spot"...on public land.
>
>
>I agree that there is too
>much stock put into how
>many people actually read this
>forum, and that the original
>point was to prove that
>the odds weren't as favorable
>as these odds sites are
>stating.
>
>I am also aware that the
>proc clearly states that 16B
>is a wilderness hunt, and
>cautions applicants to take that
>into consideration before applying.
>I've known many who have
>mistakenly drawn that unit, went
>in totally unprepared, and came
>back swearing that they would
>never apply for that hunt
>again.

From what it sounds like is you have no problem sharing what units you're applying for here with us? More so if you draw I don't think you'd have any issues with letting us all know where exactly in that unit you'll be hunting? So let's take elk for example, why don't you enlighten us with this information? Since its no big deal right? The one thing I will say that you did hit on the head is that I have heard from multiple people who have actually experienced this unit ,that they will never attempt it again.

I do wish the best of luck to all in the draw this year.
 
Well, I deleted my elk app today and now me, my family and friends are putting in for 16B. Wife has not hunted elk in years, because she does not like getting up early and hiking much, but, I am gonna surprise her and put her in for 16B also.
:)
 
Well, that convinces me. Paul being one of the 10 percenters, now I gotta apply for 16B just to see what all the fuss is about.
 
Not one mention of where to hunt in xxB. I'd say the membership has been pretty darn respectful of those that hunt there.
 
>>These guys with their secret units
>>and honey holes are too
>>much. Probably the same
>>type that get pissed off
>>whenever they encounter other hunter
>>in "their spot"...on public land.
>>
>>
>>I agree that there is too
>>much stock put into how
>>many people actually read this
>>forum, and that the original
>>point was to prove that
>>the odds weren't as favorable
>>as these odds sites are
>>stating.
>>
>>I am also aware that the
>>proc clearly states that 16B
>>is a wilderness hunt, and
>>cautions applicants to take that
>>into consideration before applying.
>>I've known many who have
>>mistakenly drawn that unit, went
>>in totally unprepared, and came
>>back swearing that they would
>>never apply for that hunt
>>again.
>
>
>Sounds like you wouldn't mind letting
>us know what your elk
>AP is gonna look like
>this year ? Where you
>putting in ? If you
>draw your first choice where
>you planning to hunt? I
>mean it's not that big
>a deal ,so I wouldn't
>mind hearing about it.

Matter of factly, I do not care if you know or not:

1st choice - 16D 2nd archery
2nd choice - 16B 2nd archery
3rd choice - 16B 1st archery

Does this ruin my odds? I honestly do not think so, because I don't think very many people sincerely give two craps about my hunts...with the exception being those that are concermed about how much time I will be taking off work if I do draw.
 
>>>These guys with their secret units
>>>and honey holes are too
>>>much. Probably the same
>>>type that get pissed off
>>>whenever they encounter other hunter
>>>in "their spot"...on public land.
>>>
>>>
>>>I agree that there is too
>>>much stock put into how
>>>many people actually read this
>>>forum, and that the original
>>>point was to prove that
>>>the odds weren't as favorable
>>>as these odds sites are
>>>stating.
>>>
>>>I am also aware that the
>>>proc clearly states that 16B
>>>is a wilderness hunt, and
>>>cautions applicants to take that
>>>into consideration before applying.
>>>I've known many who have
>>>mistakenly drawn that unit, went
>>>in totally unprepared, and came
>>>back swearing that they would
>>>never apply for that hunt
>>>again.
>>
>>
>>Sounds like you wouldn't mind letting
>>us know what your elk
>>AP is gonna look like
>>this year ? Where you
>>putting in ? If you
>>draw your first choice where
>>you planning to hunt? I
>>mean it's not that big
>>a deal ,so I wouldn't
>>mind hearing about it.
>
>Matter of factly, I do not
>care if you know or
>not:
>
>1st choice - 16D 2nd archery
>
>2nd choice - 16B 2nd archery
>
>3rd choice - 16B 1st archery
>
>
>Does this ruin my odds?
>I honestly do not think
>so, because I don't think
>very many people sincerely give
>two craps about my hunts...with
>the exception being those that
>are concermed about how much
>time I will be taking
>off work if I do
>draw.


Hell, most people probably give up on reading this far into a post...
 
Heck yeah, this is what I'm talking about!

Me and my whole family are drawing 16b now and headed in to all the "good spots". Been trying for years.

Since we're at it boys what are the odds for 12, 13, 17, 16d, and 34.
 
>Heck yeah, this is what I'm
>talking about!
>
>Me and my whole family are
>drawing 16b now and headed
>in to all the "good
>spots". Been trying for years.
>
>
>Since we're at it boys what
>are the odds for 12,
>13, 17, 16d, and 34.
>

I can speak for 34. They suck.
 
Alright you guys convinced me. I am changing to 16B, but only going to be able to hunt 1 day so I will need some help. I heard it is very accessible unit so I am putting my grandma in there also. Can't wait. Good luck see all you at the trail head. It will be good to meet all you.
 
I didn't read this entire post, but I can only conclude the hunt is easy with lots of giant bulls and the draw odds are great. Thank you all so much, I'm in for 16B as well. I haven't even applied for NM for years because I thought the draw odds were really terrible for a NR DIY guy, but I guess I was wrong. Thanks again.
 
LAST EDITED ON Feb-23-17 AT 01:32PM (MST)[p]I'll give it one more try.

Let's forget Toprut, goHunt, etc., and use only the Complete Odds report from NMGF website that Sportsman01 refers to.

From Sportsman01, in regard to the super-secret hunt in XXB

>Since it's completely plausible for someone
>to draw this tag as
>a 3rd choice before someone
>draws it as a first
>choice (taken straight from G&F
>home page on draw process),
>you must include all resident
>apps in the draw odds
>calculation process.
>
>First choice resident apps: 158
>Second Choice Resident apps: 194
>Third Choice Resident apps: 258
>
>Total Resident apps - 606

Yes, it is "plausible for someone to draw this tag as
a 3rd choice".

But a significant fraction of these applicants drew their 1st or 2nd choice, and are no longer in the game. Same thing for 2nd choice applicants who drew their first choice. So using the raw numbers gives too much "weight" to 2nd and 3rd choice applicant numbers because it includes all who drew earlier choices. Because of this factor the method Sportsman01 describes usually underestimates drawing odds, often by a significant amount.

Look at the "Post-Draw Successful Applicant Information" from the Complete Report.

1st choice resident drawn: 101
2nd choice resident drawn: 35
3rd choice resident drawn: 53

Total resident tags: 189

1st choice residents only account for 26% (158/610) of the total applicants, yet they drew a much larger fraction of the tags, ~53% (101/189). If all choices were treated equally then they would draw at a rate roughly proportional to their composition. But this does not happen, and it is only a manifestation of the draw process; we get one application with 3 ordered choices. Our choices are not treated as separate applications.

This effect is much more obvious when you look at harder to draw hunts (early Gila rifle hunts, Valle Vidal, Caldera, etc.). I can't give you a specific example because apparently that would upset someone. But for high demand hunts the vast majority of tags are issued to the first choice applicants, it doesn't seem to matter how many applied as 2nd and 3rd choice.

Given the complexity of the draw process it is difficult to compute accurate odds simply looking at the "Pre-Draw Application Information".
But it is possible to use the actual drawing results; "Post-Draw Successful Applicant Information" to estimate your odds.

Divide the post-draw 1st choice successful numbers by the number of 1st choice applicants. In this example it is;

101/158 = 64%,

which is about 2X larger than the other method (total tag#/total applicant#). If you look at most other hunts you will see the same trend, until odds start to get closer to 100%. [This method doesn't work as well for non-resident hunts because of the smaller numbers involved]

As Paul noted most people don't even consider the odds when they apply. Others will use the simple total tag#/total applicant# method, and it does give a "worst-case" estimate, and let's you order your choices correctly.

An even smaller number of hunters are "anal" about draw odds (I admit it includes me) and are interested in how to get better numbers for states with complex draw systems (NM, AZ, NV, for instance). I personally think a 2X difference is significant, but maybe that's just me.

Good luck to all those XXB hunters this year!!
 
>I'll give it one more try.
>
>
>Let's forget Toprut, goHunt, etc., and
>use only the Complete Odds
>report from NMGF website that
>Sportsman01 refers to.
>
>From Sportsman01, in regard to the
>super-secret hunt in XXB
>
>>Since it's completely plausible for someone
>>to draw this tag as
>>a 3rd choice before someone
>>draws it as a first
>>choice (taken straight from G&F
>>home page on draw process),
>>you must include all resident
>>apps in the draw odds
>>calculation process.
>>
>>First choice resident apps: 158
>>Second Choice Resident apps: 194
>>Third Choice Resident apps: 258
>>
>>Total Resident apps - 606
>
>Yes, it is "plausible for someone
>to draw this tag as
>
>a 3rd choice".
>
>But a significant fraction of these
>applicants drew their 1st or
>2nd choice, and are no
>longer in the game.
>Same thing for 2nd choice
>applicants who drew their first
>choice. But using the
>raw numbers gives too much
>"weight" to 2nd and 3rd
>choice applicant numbers because it
>includes all who drew earlier
>choices. Because of this
>factor the method Sportsman01 describes
>usually underestimates drawing odds, often
>by a significant amount.
>
>Look at the "Post-Draw Successful Applicant
>Information" from the Complete Report.
>
>
>1st choice resident drawn: 101
>2nd choice resident drawn: 35
>3rd choice resident drawn: 53
>
>Total resident tags: 189
>
>1st choice residents only account for
>26% (158/610) of the total
>applicants, yet they drew a
>much larger fraction of the
>tags, ~53% (101/189). If
>all choices were treated equally
>then they would draw at
>a rate roughly proportional to
>their composition. But this
>does not happen, and it
>is only a manifestation of
>the draw process; we get
>one application with 3 ordered
>choices. Our choices are
>not treated as separate applications.
>
>
>This effect is much more obvious
>when you look at harder
>to draw hunts (early Gila
>rifle hunts, Valle Vidal, Caldera,
>etc.). I can't give
>you a specific example because
>apparently that would upset someone.
> But for high demand
>hunts the vast majority of
>tags are issued to the
>first choice applicants, it doesn't
>seem to matter how many
>applied as 2nd and 3rd
>choice.
>
>Given the complexity of the draw
>process it is difficult to
>compute accurate odds simply looking
>at the "Pre-Draw Application Information".
>
>But it is possible to use
>the actual drawing results; "Post-Draw
>Successful Applicant Information" to estimate
>your odds.
>
>Divide the post-draw 1st choice successful
>numbers by the number of
>1st choice applicants. In
>this example it is;
>
>101/158 = 64%,
>
>which is about 2X larger than
>the other method (total tag#/total
>applicant#). If you look
>at most other hunts you
>will see the same trend,
>until odds start to get
>closer to 100%. [This
>method doesn't work as well
>for non-resident hunts because of
>the smaller numbers involved]
>
>As Paul noted most people don't
>even consider the odds when
>they apply. Others will
>use the simple total tag#/total
>applicant# method, and it does
>give a "worst-case" estimate, and
>let's you order your choices
>correctly.
>
>An even smaller number of hunters
>are "anal" about draw odds
>(I admit it includes me)
>and are interested in how
>to get better numbers for
>states with complex draw systems
>(NM, AZ, NV, for instance).
> I personally think a
>2X difference is significant, but
>maybe that's just me.
>
>Good luck to all those XXB
>hunters this year!!

So to paraphrase all this, we should all apply for 16B? :)
 
>>blah, blah, blah
>>more bloviating by JRABQ
>>blah, blah, blah
>
>NMPaul-So to paraphrase all this, we
>should all apply for 16B?
> :)

Yes, I'm sorry, I tend to go on and on, we should all apply for 16B:)
 
So, coming full circle, the odds under your calculations are remarkably close to those published by TopRut, the subject of this thread....
 
No, no, no, no...

I will be, and have been, applying for 16B. The rest of you should apply for 34 and go pester Paul, or something.
 
>So, coming full circle, the odds
>under your calculations are remarkably
>close to those published by
>TopRut, the subject of this
>thread....

Yes, but since there was a claim that the Toprut numbers were bogus I was trying to demonstrate a direct alternative method how to compute odds using data from NMGF report. As you note this method yields numbers close to the Toprut values.

After the dust has settled I probably convinced no one.

But now we all know where to apply!:)
 
>No, no, no, no...
>
>I will be, and have been,
>applying for 16B. The
>rest of you should apply
>for 34 and go pester
>Paul, or something.

Everybody that has ever shot a gun is already applying for 34. Dont worry though, G&F will just issue more tags here.
 
>>No, no, no, no...
>>
>>I will be, and have been,
>>applying for 16B. The
>>rest of you should apply
>>for 34 and go pester
>>Paul, or something.
>
>Everybody that has ever shot a
>gun is already applying for
>34. Dont worry though,
>G&F will just issue more
>tags here.

34&36...the new 9& 10 and soon to be as good.
 
>>>>These guys with their secret units
>>>>and honey holes are too
>>>>much. Probably the same
>>>>type that get pissed off
>>>>whenever they encounter other hunter
>>>>in "their spot"...on public land.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>I agree that there is too
>>>>much stock put into how
>>>>many people actually read this
>>>>forum, and that the original
>>>>point was to prove that
>>>>the odds weren't as favorable
>>>>as these odds sites are
>>>>stating.
>>>>
>>>>I am also aware that the
>>>>proc clearly states that 16B
>>>>is a wilderness hunt, and
>>>>cautions applicants to take that
>>>>into consideration before applying.
>>>>I've known many who have
>>>>mistakenly drawn that unit, went
>>>>in totally unprepared, and came
>>>>back swearing that they would
>>>>never apply for that hunt
>>>>again.
>>>
>>>
>>>Sounds like you wouldn't mind letting
>>>us know what your elk
>>>AP is gonna look like
>>>this year ? Where you
>>>putting in ? If you
>>>draw your first choice where
>>>you planning to hunt? I
>>>mean it's not that big
>>>a deal ,so I wouldn't
>>>mind hearing about it.
>>
>>Matter of factly, I do not
>>care if you know or
>>not:
>>
>>1st choice - 16D 2nd archery
>>
>>2nd choice - 16B 2nd archery
>>
>>3rd choice - 16B 1st archery
>>
>>
>>Does this ruin my odds?
>>I honestly do not think
>>so, because I don't think
>>very many people sincerely give
>>two craps about my hunts...with
>>the exception being those that
>>are concermed about how much
>>time I will be taking
>>off work if I do
>>draw.
>
>
>Hell, most people probably give up
>on reading this far into
>a post...


Ain't that the truth!
 
>34&36...the new 9& 10 and soon
>to be as good.

Why you SOB!! Now everyone knows about unit 9 dammit!
:)
 
Wait you guys are going to fast. What is our 2ND and 3rd choice. 9 and 10 or 34 and 36. I thought we all agreed all three choices in 16b.
 
>>>>These guys with their secret units
>>>>and honey holes are too
>>>>much. Probably the same
>>>>type that get pissed off
>>>>whenever they encounter other hunter
>>>>in "their spot"...on public land.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>I agree that there is too
>>>>much stock put into how
>>>>many people actually read this
>>>>forum, and that the original
>>>>point was to prove that
>>>>the odds weren't as favorable
>>>>as these odds sites are
>>>>stating.
>>>>
>>>>I am also aware that the
>>>>proc clearly states that 16B
>>>>is a wilderness hunt, and
>>>>cautions applicants to take that
>>>>into consideration before applying.
>>>>I've known many who have
>>>>mistakenly drawn that unit, went
>>>>in totally unprepared, and came
>>>>back swearing that they would
>>>>never apply for that hunt
>>>>again.
>>>
>>>
>>>Sounds like you wouldn't mind letting
>>>us know what your elk
>>>AP is gonna look like
>>>this year ? Where you
>>>putting in ? If you
>>>draw your first choice where
>>>you planning to hunt? I
>>>mean it's not that big
>>>a deal ,so I wouldn't
>>>mind hearing about it.
>>
>>Matter of factly, I do not
>>care if you know or
>>not:
>>
>>1st choice - 16D 2nd archery
>>
>>2nd choice - 16B 2nd archery
>>
>>3rd choice - 16B 1st archery
>>
>>
>>Does this ruin my odds?
>>I honestly do not think
>>so, because I don't think
>>very many people sincerely give
>>two craps about my hunts...with
>>the exception being those that
>>are concermed about how much
>>time I will be taking
>>off work if I do
>>draw.
>
>
>Hell, most people probably give up
>on reading this far into
>a post...

Good luck!!! Most people are going to keep
Putting in for the same ol' units they are comfortable with. Very few will venture out. Not big deal in my opinion about 16B. It's a wilderness unit. Pretty tough if not prepared in my opinion. That in itself will deter people. That's probably why odds are better in that unit for a gila unit.
 
>Heck yeah, this is what I'm
>talking about!
>
>Me and my whole family are
>drawing 16b now and headed
>in to all the "good
>spots". Been trying for years.
>
>
>Since we're at it boys what
>are the odds for 12,
>13, 17, 16d, and 34.
>

They are worst than 16b
 
>Wait you guys are going to
>fast. What is our 2ND
>and 3rd choice. 9 and
>10 or 34 and 36.
>I thought we all agreed
>all three choices in 16b.
>

Well 16B was rated #1 by weareroadhunters.org.
 
>>Wait you guys are going to
>>fast. What is our 2ND
>>and 3rd choice. 9 and
>>10 or 34 and 36.
>>I thought we all agreed
>>all three choices in 16b.
>>
>
>Well 16B was rated #1 by
>weareroadhunters.org.


LOL!
 
>Well 16B was rated #1 by
>weareroadhunters.org.

I just ordered a new gun-rack for my 4-wheeler, can't wait!
 
>>Wait you guys are going to
>>fast. What is our 2ND
>>and 3rd choice. 9 and
>>10 or 34 and 36.
>>I thought we all agreed
>>all three choices in 16b.
>>
>
>Well 16B was rated #1 by
>weareroadhunters.org.


Now that's funny!!
 
Oh my god this is too funny! So I am curious to see how many people are going to burn one of their 1st choices on one of the two premier deer and elk tags. Even if only 10 people apply the odds are too steep for me LOL.
 
>Oh my god this is too
>funny! So I am curious
>to see how many people
>are going to burn one
>of their 1st choices on
>one of the two premier
>deer and elk tags. Even
>if only 10 people apply
>the odds are too steep
>for me LOL.

I will waste my first choice on it for at least deer, not sure about elk.
 
Been sitting in the NICU with my boy for the last week and this thread finally gave me something to laugh out loud at.

See you all at the Cliff Dwellings trail head come September 15th!

Hunt Hard. Shoot Straight. Kill Clean. Apologize to No One.
 
I hope your youngster will be ok. I'm glad our neurotic behavior was amusing? Now that I went back through this thread, I tend to agree!
 
>Well, I deleted my elk app
>today and now me, my
>family and friends are putting
>in for 16B. Wife
>has not hunted elk in
>years, because she does not
>like getting up early and
>hiking much, but, I am
>gonna surprise her and put
>her in for 16B also.
>
>:)


Haha funny guy, if you or your wife would draw it I'd take a pack string in and help you guys out!!!! And that's the truth ?
 
>>>These guys with their secret units
>>>and honey holes are too
>>>much. Probably the same
>>>type that get pissed off
>>>whenever they encounter other hunter
>>>in "their spot"...on public land.
>>>
>>>
>>>I agree that there is too
>>>much stock put into how
>>>many people actually read this
>>>forum, and that the original
>>>point was to prove that
>>>the odds weren't as favorable
>>>as these odds sites are
>>>stating.
>>>
>>>I am also aware that the
>>>proc clearly states that 16B
>>>is a wilderness hunt, and
>>>cautions applicants to take that
>>>into consideration before applying.
>>>I've known many who have
>>>mistakenly drawn that unit, went
>>>in totally unprepared, and came
>>>back swearing that they would
>>>never apply for that hunt
>>>again.
>>
>>
>>Sounds like you wouldn't mind letting
>>us know what your elk
>>AP is gonna look like
>>this year ? Where you
>>putting in ? If you
>>draw your first choice where
>>you planning to hunt? I
>>mean it's not that big
>>a deal ,so I wouldn't
>>mind hearing about it.
>
>Matter of factly, I do not
>care if you know or
>not:
>
>1st choice - 16D 2nd archery
>
>2nd choice - 16B 2nd archery
>
>3rd choice - 16B 1st archery
>
>
>Does this ruin my odds?
>I honestly do not think
>so, because I don't think
>very many people sincerely give
>two craps about my hunts...with
>the exception being those that
>are concermed about how much
>time I will be taking
>off work if I do
>draw.

Hats off , you've proved to be the guy that can say whatever he wants from now on hahaha. Hope you draw D
 
>Just yanking your chain Geno. LOL
>


Lol funny guy Paul !!!! I'd actually load up a pack string and help you out though , hahahaha. Like you're gonna do for me in 34 in December now that there's gonna be a bunch of dudes trying to make it up the first leg of the trail head in 16b with my tag in there pocket,I'll need the apre 6 hunt lol.
 
>Been sitting in the NICU with
>my boy for the last
>week and this thread finally
>gave me something to laugh
>out loud at.
>
>See you all at the Cliff
>Dwellings trail head come September
>15th!
>
>Hunt Hard. Shoot Straight. Kill Clean.
>Apologize to No One.

Hope your son is okay Teryn.
 
I know exactly what Gino is getting at as every year we see hunters in 16B that absolutely have no business hunting in there. They either don't get their elk packed out or lose it altogether. I know for a fact there are a lot of non residents especially whom look at the draw odds only and apply accordingly and don't give a darn whether it is wilderness or not, just so the get the tag. They take away from the true wilderness hunters chances every year.

Even in the 10% outfitter pool there are over 15 outfitters applying hunters in 16B every year and over half of those don't even own livestock.

Nothing we can do about it but unnecessarily promoting or advertising better draw odds for 16B does a big disservice to a lot of hunters.

That is not to say that a few hunters do pretty good hunting close to the trail heads but there are just as many or more who try to go back in 6-15 miles and think they can do the hunt or the elk they might kill justice. Total BS.
 
>I know exactly what Gino is
>getting at as every year
>we see hunters in 16B
>that absolutely have no business
>hunting in there. They either
>don't get their elk packed
>out or lose it altogether.
>I know for a fact
>there are a lot of
>non residents especially whom look
>at the draw odds only
>and apply accordingly and don't
>give a darn whether it
>is wilderness or not, just
>so the get the tag.
>They take away from the
>true wilderness hunters chances every
>year.
>
>Even in the 10% outfitter pool
>there are over 15 outfitters
>applying hunters in 16B every
>year and over half of
>those don't even own
>livestock.
>
>Nothing we can do about it
>but unnecessarily promoting or advertising
>better draw odds for 16B
>does a big disservice to
>a lot of hunters.
>
>That is not to say that
>a few hunters do pretty
>good hunting close to the
>trail heads but there are
>just as many or more
>who try to go back
>in 6-15 miles and think
>they can do the hunt
>or the elk they might
>kill justice. Total BS.


Thank you Tom , you and I see more and more of it every single year!!
 

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