Nonresident Cap Split

ElmerFudd

Very Active Member
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I have heard very reliable sources saying different things on this. Is draw going to stay as has been in recent years or are they going to limit nonresidents to 5% of the total tags per hunt number in the first max points round in 2016 and/or beyond?
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-05-15 AT 11:17AM (MST)[p]You need to drop some of your sources.

The Commission passed that and the other Article 1 Rules amendments (Notice of Final Rulemaking), then the Governors Regulatory Review Council approved them on Nov 3 2015.

In effect for 2016.

No more than 50% of the nr quota can be drawn in the Bonus Pass.

Verbage: "In addition, the rule is amended to establish the Department shall not issue more than 50% of the hunt permit-tags available to nonresidents with the highest number of bonus points through the initial bonus point pass of the computer draw to increase opportunity for those persons who have no bonus points or very few bonus points."
 
Very bad news for those with max points, but awesome news for those with less than max. I personally think this is a good move over all. Everyone that puts in for the draw should have a shot, no matter how small.
 
It is what it is. For me, it hurts my max point chances for a strip buck deer tag, but helps on everything else. It will change application strategy of most! I have had some really good AZ hunting so I can't complain! I'll buy and apply every year no matter. I just got back from helping a bud on a awesome sheep hunt, I won't post pictures but he got a bomber and being there with him was almost as good as getting to pull the trigger! One of the best ever hunts I have been on.... I won't post pictures without his permission....
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-05-15 AT 01:37PM (MST)[p]In December 2013 I posted that this change was coming. I was told point blank that it was a sure thing and have said so. It shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.
Unfortunately, many of those in the max pools couldn't just decide to draw out unless they changed hunts. Now they're looking at a doubling of their wait time. An additional 5% for residents in the Bonus Pass.
I may have to move my camper down to my AZ lot.
 
>Wonder if I could talk my
>wife into retiring to Arizona
>?


All you have to do is talk her into moving for one year.
 
I'd buy the lifetime license if I could.... But I wouldn't be surprised if they change the rules on that too someday.....
 
Im ok with giving people with lass points a small chance at drawing a premium tag but not at the expense of those who have been on the game for years especially on the hunts that take max points, maybe give them a chance at one of the resident tags. If you want to change the rules then how about refunding me the licences i bought the last 20 years and have never used. You just took a few hunts that may still have taken a max point holder 20 years to draw and made it 40-50 and im guessing theres a bunch of them who wont live that long. lets face it this change wasnt to give hunters any more opprotunity it was to bring in more money. Just like the lottery give people a small chance and they will pay.
I think this will hurt the outfitters as well as most people that have years of license fees wrapped up in a ounce in a lifetime hunt will more likeley hire an outfitter to make the hunt a success opposed to the guy with zero money invested.
 
I agree will definately increase revenue thats what it is for, guys with a lot of points are stuck to keep applying even though they may never draw as they change the system every few years but they have a ton of money invested already and now this to increase the number of applicants and generate revenue. Why not give non residents a higher percentage of the tags as this too would increase revenue. Bottom line its about the money and getting the money with the least resistence, only people this hurts is people with max or enough points to currently draw a tag which is a much smaller number than the people who have little or no points.
I just dont agree with constantly changing the system simply to generate revenue, it was obvious to me that when the system started when we got several years in we would have this situation as it is basically the same in every other state i apply for the good units take more and more years to draw. i think it is a bad idea to punish those who have the most invested to please the masses.
There are plenty of states that i have few points in and im fine with that i develop a strategy based on the system they have and some i have never draw like nevada, but at least they have not changed the system so I know what i am in for.
 
I guess I've been sleeping since I drew a North of the Ditch tag in 2008. I quit applying since only Max point holders had a small chance of drawing the Strip tag. Have they changed the point system since the inception nearly 20 years ago?
 
Changed a few times in I beleive 2005 they gave residence and non residence equal chance at tags due to lawsuit which went back the next year, then adding the hunter ed point to stay in the max points pool and now this only giving 50% of tags to max point guys which means if there are 5 tags max guys will get 2 and 3 will go to random draw. Like you I just want to draw my tag one time in my life then I will either go for an easier draw hunt or OTC stuff or hunt elsewhere.the goal im sure is to get as many people to buy a license as possible to generate money and giving people a slim chance at a tag will do that.
 
Even though my last year to apply was 2008, will I still have my Hunter Ed point? Thanks
 
Yes, you still have your H.E. point but lost your loyalty point.
Rather amusing reading the "all about money" grumbling. It had absolutely nothing to do with money.
 
It probably had more to do about the grumbling from those with less than max points. Looks like it's a win, win, lose.
 
It was done solely to give those with less than max points a chance at a tag. The person who brought it forward is fully aware of the limited draw reports from the dept and because of that, the inability of an applicant to know if there is a tag available to draw.
 
When they first started the 20% preference draw, about half the preference strip deer tags went to nonresidents as the top pool was pretty close to 50% resident, 50% nonresident. Now, after many years of the 10% cap doing its work, the top pool is heavily weighted nonresident. That's why strip tags have become true preference for nonresidents. Really this change will give about the same weight to top pool nonresidents as we started with...,.
 
Changes...first it was a straight bonus point system. Then 10% to preference. I think that is what it was when deer were added to the points system. The 20% to the top pool is when the strip became true preference to nonresidents.

Really, they should do the nonresident cap as a set aside quota. But if they did that, 20% of that would go to preference, less than the 50% that will go into the new system:)
 
I dont know how you can think its not about money, yes it gives people with less than max a chance to draw a tag therefore more people will apply and buy a license generating more money. If it was soley to give them a chance then how about we change it to where we dont buy a license unless drawn for a hunt? I agree with Elmer that it has made the strip hunts a preference point system so why not make 20% of tags go to top points regardless of residency then give nonresidents 10% of the rest on a random? This would upset residents as they would get less than 90% of the tags. Bottom line the way they are going to do it gets maximum dollar and upsets the minimum amount of people( those nonresidents with max points)
 
It would have been just fine if a full 5% of random tags would have went to non res. Instead its up to 5%. Some people sold this for a long shot at best.
 
It's easy Buckmaster, I talk to the person who instigated the change, and have for many years. Create a relationship with department heads and there won't be any conspiracy theories. The people I talk to have been forthright with information and thoughts for nearly 10 years now.
This change will put the draw back to a Bonus Point system for those hunts that filled in the Bonus Pass. I would have done it slightly different if I was King, but I'm not.
 
Its been this way for years why a change now? Theres only one group of people this hurts and they are the highest invested most loyal applicants so it doesnt sit well with me. Like i said before if the desire is to give less than max point applicants a chance there are other ways to go about it. Max point nonresident applicants were getting 100% of the tags for the top units now if 13B has 5 tags they will get 40% with 60% going to random draw. I beleive the intent may have started to give less than max applicants a chance, im guessing due to complaints from them and i dont blame them i woukd want a chance too, but this is not the way to go about it. this is a way that Game and fish will loose no money and actually generate revenue in license sales and impact the least amount of people(max point apps).
I dont think it started as a way to generate revenue but the way its being done will surely generate it.
We are only talking about a few tags going to random draw why not take these from resident pool which given the number of tags residents receive will be a relatively small impact but for nonresidents will surely double the amount of years it will take to get thru the nonresident max point holders.
I know I am biased being a max point holder but i am less than max in many other states and I am not complaining about it I know what tags I will not draw and I build a plan to draw hunts I can, I dont expect them to change the rules to better suit me.
 
I also dont know of a state that has a bonus point system where more tags will go to Random draw tahn to higher point holders, I know the change is for not more than 50% to highest point holders but if there are say 5 tags only two will go to highest point holders most states are 90% highest point holders 10% random draw which seems a lot more logical to me and it still gives people with less points a chance.
 
I like the new change, but I would hate to be the non-residents currently in the max pt pool.

This means any top end elk/deer unit will now take approximately twice as long to draw for Non-Res max point holders. I think in the 2016 draw most Non-Res Max pt holders will stay with their current unit until they can find out exactly how much longer they will have to wait for that tag. Arizona regs don't split res/non-res apps by unit so it's tough to tell exact odds of drawing. Change to improve this could be coming soon? Then in 2017 most of the older Non-Res Max Pt applicants that realize they no longer have a chance to draw that trophy tag will likely start applying for easier draw units.


More Non-Res will likely apply for that small chance at a good tag. With more Non-Res license sales AZGFD will increase revenue, but maybe not the main reason they did this deal. Main priority might have been to give every Non-Res a chance to draw and second was increase in revenue.

As for applying for a tag. I would guess most Non-Res with less than max pts will apply by themselves to give them the best opportunity at a tag in the 5% random draw.
 
Thinking about it, In High demand units,nonresidents will probably pull a full 5% in the random draw. Non residents with high bonus points ( not max)will go back to putting down a 1st choice strip or 9 tag. I will put my 12 elk points back into unit 9, which I havnt done for years.
 
I would probably like it too if I were not in max point pool, I guess I shouldnt complain too much being I was early 20's when this started I am guessing I am on the younger end of guys with max so I will hopefully still draw a tag in my life unless the system changes again which it will likely do. I feel bad for a guy who is 60 now that most likely will have to swap hunt choices now. Hopefully I draw while Im still young enough to get after it, hopefully next year so I can get out of this mess!
Maybe we can get USO to sue again and give us half the tags again a couple years of that and alll max point holders will draw out.
I do think residents should get a higher percentage of the tags but it might be a good idea to give nonresidents a few more of the primo units before the max points gets to where most people die before getting to ise them
 
Being a Bonus Point state, everybody has a weighted advantage over the lesser point pool apps. Not a fix but a whole lot better than a Preference Point state.
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-07-15 AT 06:31PM (MST)[p]Well it looks like the draw will continue to be a $hit show in 2016 as well w the new changes...
As long as they don't up the non residents to more than 10% I guess it's all good, just might take a few extra weeks of driving myself crazy for results!
 
I apply in several different states and there is no perfect draw system. They all have advantages and disadvantages. For the most part 10% NR tags is pretty standard for most states. I can understand max holders being upset but no one can really expect states not to change their draw system,game laws, tag allocations over time based on a variety of issues. NM has made changes thru the yrs, WY has made changes and probably every other state. AZ will probably make more changes in the yrs to come.
 
Well at least it makes sense to apply for a tag 2016. Instead of paying for a licence you know for a fact you won't use applying for points..12a-b deer & 9-10 elk well have a bump in apps! Ya think?
 
The change was legally necessary. Allowing NR's with less than max points to put in for 13A & B and the late hunts on the 12A & B for deer and the early hunts on 9 & 10 for elk was what the legal system refers to as fraud. There was a guaranteed 0% chance of a NR ever drawing one of those tags without already having max points even though they were paying to apply. With the new rules there is now at least a small chance of drawing one of those tags. I just wish they would have made it a firm 10% rather than UP TO 10%. Some hunts NR's will get the 10% but many will not. So with the new rule NR's will get 5% of the permits with a possibility of up to 10%. I personally believe that is why Colorado started the hybrid draw, to get within compliance of the laws on fraud.
 
If it is a legal necessity, will they be altering the sheep draw because some of the units fill all tags in the bonus draw and it is possible you could apply for a unit that has zero tags available in the main draw?
 
I don't think it will have much effect on the sheep draw for quite a while. The top pool is less than 5% nonresident and half or more of the nonresident cap usually escapes to the bonus point round.
 
Not to worry Bob. There will always be the doom & gloom crowd. I appreciate you keeping us in the loop with the Department. Sounds like a positive change for the majority.

Not so much with max points guys, although some may benefit more than they think!
 
Fraud? YUP! If you don't believe me look up the definition and then think about the way the draw worked in those top units. My opinion isn't something I just pulled out of my ass. It is based off conversations I've had with 3 different attorneys who have over 90 years combined experience with one of them recently retiring from being a state prosecutor. For whatever reason the state claims they initiated the change, the change does cover their rear end. OK.
 
Haha we got a funny guy. No payments were made just having a conversation while out fishing but I appreciate your concern Bobby.

Not that you care but I'll give you an example. First you need to know what fraud is, the general definition of fraud is to get money from someone by deceiving them. There are guys from southern Utah and Nevada that apply in AZ for sole purpose of trying to draw a Strip tag. So say one of them started applying 5 years ago. He pays $173 a year to put in for the Strip and only puts down 13A & B for his hunt choices THINKING he will a chance of drawing the tag(that is were deception comes in) not knowing that he has a guaranteed 0% chance of EVER drawing. At no point in the application process does the F&G state that a NR non max point holder has a 0% chance of EVER drawing that tag. So in 5 years the applicant has paid $865 with the idea that he's had a chance but just hasn't got lucky but that his turn will come someday. By allowing the applicant to apply gives the false impression that the applicant had a chance even though it was guaranteed the applicant would never draw. By definition that sounds like fraud to me!

Just the fact that the F&G allowed a NR non max point holder to put the Strip as a choice is deceitful. They allowed them to put the Strip as a choice KNOWING they had zero chance but yet took the money anyway. My point in bringing up fraud was NOT to say that was the only reason for the change, my only point WAS that it does cover their rear end from any possible litigation in the future.
 
I dont think that fraud had anything to do with it, nor do i feel it was fraudulant, applying for a strip tag without max points was a choice I dont think there is anywhere stated you actually had a chance to draw. I think its your own fault if you are applying for a tag you have zero chance of drawing, due your homework or hire an application service to do it for you. Im sure the change does have something to do with all the people who were appying finally realizing this and complaining about it. Like I stated before I have no problem with giving these applicants a slim chance but not at the expense of those who already have a ton of time and money wrapped up in drawing it, getting the hunter ed point alone was probabaly a $700-$800 expense and lose of a weekend and now anyone has a chance at it. How about refunding this and all licenses purchased by max point holders who are getting screwed by the change? This shouldnt be a problem if money has nothing to do with the change!
Only thing this change will accomplish is quite complaints of those complaining of not drawing a tag, your odds went from 0% to probably around .05% I expect more changes in the future cause 99.5% will still be upset especially the ones with a bunch of points that read the articles of the guy with zero points drawing a tag. My guess is weighting the points in the random draw will be the next step.
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-11-15 AT 08:08PM (MST)[p]The applicant pool is dynamic, there is no guaranteed 0% or 100% that a person will or won't draw a tag prior to the close of the draw.

The only place a 0 point app can draw is in the 1-2 Pass, and points are used there currently.
 
It might be reasonable assume applicant distribution will be somewhat close to recent years... And with 90% of the top pool applicants combined with a 10% nonresident cap and 20% of the tags going first to the max pool... It's all but certain the 10% cap will fill in the first round. But there is no way that is fraud or can the department know before the draw.... And the word is out with enough information out there that the applicant should know that it is effectively preference for those hunts.
 
A new draw report is on the list and it will split res/nr, per point level, per hunt code. At that point in time all the mystery will be gone.
 
Can't be Fraud...If all Non-Residents with max points decided not to apply for a 13A or 13b tag or they died or they made a mistake on their application a Non-Resident with less then max-points would get a tag! How could Arizona be liable?
 
WapitiBob can't wait for that list to be available. Do you happen to know if we will have the apps res/non-res split per hunt code by the 2016 application period?
 
I was told initially it would be done for the 2015 app period. Obviously that didn't happen. The IT dept is the group handling it and evidently they're spending all their time on the Portal. I asked a few weeks ago and was told nothing has happened with the new report. My guess at this point is it's done for the 2017 app period.
 
Like I said the only point of my post was to say the change covers them from POSSIBLE issues. I never said they should be charged or intended to start MM jury trial. Some made valid points others I could argue but that's not what I intended to start. Good luck to all in this years AZ draw.
 
Has AZ announced season dates and tag allocations for elk units/seasons for 2016? I haven't seen it on website ? Just wondering
 
This whole thing is definitely screwing me hard. My only question now is if there is only one tag for a non resident is it going to random every year. I really wanted to draw a great archery elk tag have waited my 18 years to draw it and i think they r going to just straight out take it from me after i waited all these years and spent a crap load of money waiting for it.
 
New rule: "In addition, the rule is amended to establish the Department shall not issue more than 50% of the hunt permit-tags available to nonresidents with the highest number of bonus points through the initial bonus point pass of the computer draw to increase opportunity for those persons who have no bonus points or very few bonus points."
 
Aaron looks like you are screwed too if they gave one tag to highest point holder then that would be 100% of tags which goes against the new rule. Well hopefully you didnt go all the way down and get the hunter ed point as well! I wonder how many people will attend this now that there draw odds just went in the toilet?
 
115 comments were submitted against the proposal and 15 for it. They had their minds made up.


It is one hundred percent incorrect to say that a non maximum point holder would NEVER draw a Strip tag. Archery tags are drawn with less than max. The non first pass tags are going to residents so all this did is screw the non-residents.

Another example, Wyoming non-resident max point sheep holders: In 2012 about 25% applied for a tag, in 2013 only about 25% applied for a tag. And in 2014 ZERO out of 16 max point holders applied for a tag. This means less than max point holders have been getting permits.

These two scenarios are the reason I am so pissed about it. It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict what the application dynamics will be in the future. There was a chance in ten years non max point holders could potentially draw a Strip rifle tag.

They have put this old man in a tough spot. Doing it without a tag has just become a strong possibility.
 
>This whole thing is definitely screwing
>me hard. My only question
>now is if there is
>only one tag for a
>non resident is it going
>to random every year. I
>really wanted to draw a
>great archery elk tag have>waited my 18 years to
>draw it and i think
>they r going to just
>straight out take it from
>me after i waited all
>these years and spent a
>crap load of money waiting
>for it.

It screwed me too. I have a friend that I hunt with and we apply as a group so 2 on the app. We wont even be able to apply where we want to go anymore without separate apps. The area we apply for only gives 2 nr tags so 1 of them will go in pass and the other will drop down.
 
So if I am doing my math correctly, there needs to be at least 20 tags on a hunt before a nonresident will draw a tag in the bonus pass?
 
>So if I am doing my
>math correctly, there needs to
>be at least 20 tags
>on a hunt before a
>nonresident will draw a tag
>in the bonus pass?
 
Cozmo8 has a valid point, people may get pissed enough and do it without a tag. Chances are it will be cheaper that way too. Im not saying that it will be the right thing to do but then again neither is the change. If a guy waits most his life for a tag and a rule change takes away what would have been a sure thing he may take matters into his own hands.
 
There needs to be 2 tags in the nr quota for 1 to be drawn in the Bonus Pass. Single tags can only be drawn in the 1-2 pass which ensures all nr applicants have a chance, including those with zero points.
 
I'm sure the list is endless (including myself) of people frustrated by the draw and rules and laws. If a fraction of the people frustrated by the process decide to turn outlaw and have their own self awarded auction tag there wouldn't be much left to hunt. I highly doubt you'd get away with it if you tried. Too many folks guides and people running around out there these days, and they have just about every single decent buck named and on multiple cameras. Here's hoping those that do give themselves a self awarded permit they get their mangy asses busted and all their shiite confiscated with all hunting privileges revoked, with fines as big as the bucks they seek.
 
That is the way it works in every other state I can think of with a mixed preference/random-bonus draw. First tag goes to the random-bonus pool.
 
Luck, which includes luck of the draw and in the field is part of what makes hunting fun. No way could any decent person look at a trophy or win in any sport the same way or with pride if he/she broke the rules. Maybe you can brag... But deep down you and the lord know! Size alone does not make a trophy set of antlers.
 
It is hard to play by the rules when the rules change during the game...

Maybe we should propose this approach for professional sports - might make the games more interesting!
 
It sure looks to me like they change the rules of pro sports on the fly... The "tuck" was the most obvious on the fly decision ever.They certainly officially do year to year. That's part of the thing that sucks about any point system. Game departments make rules year to year. The draw should be just random year to year when rules are changed year to year. Once they make promises they can't keep, they are going to piss off people. The simple fact is that rules will change when they get enough complaints, especially from those in the right position. If you expect any future value on points, you are bound to be disappointed someday.
 
The fact is that most people will never draw some tags. If the odds are 1:100 and you have 50 years to apply, about half will not draw. It is not anyone's right to draw a particular tag. If anyone decides to bypass the legal process, I hope they get caught and pay the maximum punishment. I have a lot more sympathy on a poor poacher trying to put a little meat on he table than one just trying to bypass the legal tag allocation process to put a trophy on the wall to stoke his/her ego!
 
LAST EDITED ON Dec-19-15 AT 01:58PM (MST)[p]LAST EDITED ON Dec-19-15 AT 01:55?PM (MST)

Elmer did someone on here say they wanted to hunt the Strip for a trophy on the wall? I guess some are looking for the adventure You are mostly concerned about your ego and the trophy. We agree to disagree.

And every other state doesn't work this way. Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada all do not have a pref/bonus point split
 
I do want to hunt strip for the experience and for the chance to put a trophy on the wall. I personally could not do it illegally and be proud I also would not enjoy the hunt if it were not legal. I do not feel the rule change is very ethical either, there is no guarantee of drawing a certain tag i agree but when a set of rules is set up and you invest time and money into it i do beleive you owe something to the people it hurts. What I mean is when the rules were put in place max point holders made a commitment to hold out for a certain tag, a tag that given there age they were more than likely certain to draw unless they died at an early age. Had the rules been what they are now many would have either drawn a different tag, not done the hunter ed class or not tried at all and used this money on another hunt opprotunity. Add up 18 or more years of buying a license and taking hunter ed to draw this tag you probably in the neighborhood of $3000, if you want to change the rules then repay those who bought in to the old system. My time is also worth something as well if Arizona gave me $6000 for the time and money I had involved in this I would shut up and walk away and go buy a tag elsewhere! I here its not about the money, well I have to disagree to an extent as it cost me a lot of money and no one has offered to pay it back even though I bought into it under a system that has been changed and would have certainly changed the decisions I made a long time ago.
 

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