NR DIY'S: READ THIS!!!

[coryb]

I think there are some misconceptions about the new quota system that has some NR's on here swearing off New Mexico.

Let me first say that I disagree with the outfitter allocation tags and think the tags should be divided only between residents and nonresidents. If someone wants to hire an outfitter after they draw so be it, but it should not increase their odds of drawing.

That being said I think a look at some statistics might encourage the NR DIY to continue to apply (and draw) in New Mexico. We have some amazing hunting and it would be a shame to miss out on it just because you think "the man" is trying to stick it to you.

Based on what I have read on here it seems that many NR's think that the new quota has destroyed their ability to draw in New Mexico. It seems that many on here think that the resident previously had a 7.8 more likely chance of drawing a tag (78% vs. 10%) and the new quota has taken that to a 14:1 (84% vs. 6%)probability of the resident drawing vs. the nonresident. The statistics show that the facts are quite different than this notion.

Using the statistics from last year's draw I compiled the following stats. To determine these numbers I used the number of first choice applicants and the number of total tags drawn (regardless of first, second, or third choice drawn) in both the resident and nonresident non-guided categories. This counted each hunter only once (per species) and didn't factor in who did or did not elect to choose a second or third choice hunt.

Of the 7 species that are governed by the quota, nonresident do-it-yourselfers had a better chance of drawing a tag than residents for 4 of these species. 2 of the three that the resident had a higher successful draw percentage were very close (Res. hunters had a .5% higher chance for javelina and a 1.2% better shot at a deer tag). Only NM elk hunters had a significantly better (12.6%) chance of drawing a tag than a NR DIY. In the four species favoring the NR applicant it was a blow out in all but the antelope draw (2.7% better for the NR). The draw odds were as follows:

ANT: 13.2% of R Applicants drew a tag.....15.9% of NR DIY Applicants drew a tag
BBY: 42.1% of R Applicants drew a tag.....58% of NR DIY Applicants drew a tag
BER: 11.4% of R Applicants drew a tag.....40.5% of NR DIY Applicants drew a tag
DER: 65.3% of R Applicants drew a tag.....64.1% of NR DIY Applicants drew a tag
ELK: 38.5% of R Applicants drew a tag.....25.9% of NR DIY Applicants drew a tag
JAV: 96.9% of R Applicants drew a tag.....96.4% of NR DIY Applicants drew a tag
TUR: 14.8% of R Applicants drew a tag.....72.7% of NR DIY Applicants drew a tag

Only time will tell what will happen in the upcoming draw. Personally, I think that the amount of NR DIY applicants will be roughly the same. Most hunters never read the entire proclamation or understand (or even care about the quota). They just apply and hope because they know that they would like to hunt in NM. Many people on here claim that "many" NR's have had enough and will take their money elsewhere. If this is true and 40% go to other states then the NR DIY will have roughly the same odds next year as they did this year. However if my theory is correct and the same amount apply the stats will be as follows (for these stats I used last year's applicant numbers and the new quota split. For elk I transferred 1500 tags to account for cow and WMA hunts, based on 1fastgambler's data on the "New Proclamation" thread):

ANT: 14.2% R Applicants will draw.....9.5% NR DIY Applicants will draw
BBY: 45.3% R Applicants will draw.....34.8% NR DIY Applicants will draw
BER: 12.3% R Applicants will draw.....24.3% NR DIY Applicants will draw
DER: 70.4% R Applicants will draw.....38.5% NR DIY Applicants will draw
ELK: 41.9% R Applicants will draw.....10.6% NR DIY Applicants will draw
JAV: 100% R Applicants will draw.....57.8% NR DIY Applicants will draw
TUR: 15.9% R Applicants will draw.....43.6% NR DIY Applicants will draw

NR DIY hunters still will have a better chance for 2 of the 7 species. 3 of the species will be comparable. Only for Deer and Elk will the Resident hunter have a substantially better chance of drawing a tag.

The overall stats are as follows:

Last year Residents made 108,529 apps for 52,092 tags: 48% Draw Odds
NR DIY's made 16,839 apps for 6,366 tags: 37.8% Draw Odds

With the new quota the stats would be as follows:

Residents make 108,529 apps for 55,999 tags: 51.6% Draw Odds
NR DIY's make 16,839 apps for 3,919 tags: 23.3% Draw Odds.

This is not out of line at all. I think most people, both residents and nonresidents, can agree that a New Mexican should have at least twice the odds of the NR in our own state. Also, how many other states offer our quality of hunting and the ability to draw 1 out of every 4 tags you apply for, statistically. I understand that your odds went down and I agree that it would be better to not have any outfitter tags. However, this is where we are, at least for this year, and I hope these statistics will encourage some NR's to continue to apply. I guarantee that some of you will draw better hunts than I've been able to so far as a resident. My odds aren't always great but you can bet I'll be in for at least six species,

Sorry for the long read, thanks for sticking it out.

Cory

 

[greatwestern]

I would also like to encourage the NR DIY hunters to continue to apply here in New Mexico. I, and MANY others (despite what may be said on these forums) very much appreciate the quite substantial boost that you have provided directly to our Dept's revenue, and the general augmentation you bring to our state's ecomomy as visitors.

No disrespect to your or the Gambler's statistically categorized calculations Cory, but to just suggest a decently likely probability, the TOTAL NR odds will now be decreased by around 50%, from 22% NR allocation down to 11 (for simplicity's sake, speculating that NRs draw half of the BS Outfitter pool), with the NR DIY pool odds cut by nearly as much (40%)

At the risk of being very obviously redundant, I NEVER supported the heavily abused Outfitter pool, and NEVER supported 196 in any of its vacillated forms...I would like to see a straight split of between 80-85/20-15 with ZERO % to Outfitters, for ALL Big Game species

I'm certainly no math whiz, but in regard to the new laws, my rudimentary numbers speak of an alarming loss to the already chronically underbudgeted Dept's annual revenue...nevermind the significant loss to the general economy by trashing more or less half of our NR hunting visitors.

On a positive note, at least we still do not have a destined-to-backfire Bonus/Preference Point system, and continue to follow the good old fashioned Luck of the Draw paradigm, making ANYONE's chances as good as the rest (historical stats data notwithstanding) for the majority of the the draws; obviously not including the NR shut out on WMA and cow elk hunts.

So yes, DYI NRs keep applying! You'll never draw the Big Ticket if ya don't play the game...no matter how silly the rules might be

 

[treedagain]

thats alot of info to compile, thanks for sharing

 

[junior]

Residents make 108,529 apps for 55,999 tags: 51.6% Draw Odds
NR DIY's make 16,839 apps for 3,919 tags: 23.3% Draw Odds.

State wide that info looks good. I think the lesser unit odds will be way better! But when you run the odds of 16s/15/13 units, I am thinking it will be ugly. Time will tell.

 

[WapitiBob]

It really doesn't matter what the total res/nr draw odds are, there's no draw for "the field". The hunts we prefer to apply for, our odds are not even close to 1 in 4. Dropping the allotment from 10% down to 6% put the previously poor odds further down the crapper.

 

[junior]

Yes, will be interesting to see odds on a unit with few tags(16d ELK-2-257)2 or 3 non resident diy tags? The land owner tag will be 10gs. lol

 

[PCPython]

Yeah as a NR myself I hope lots of NRs drop out of the draw and maybe I'll finally draw an elk tag.

 

[Phantom Hunter]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-27-11 AT 05:08PM (MST)[p]Our group of DIY NR are definately out for 2012 and most likely out for 2013. We are burning points in Wyo. this year and plan on burning points in Colo. in 2013. After that we will see if NM has changed these absurd rules. Can only afford one hunt a year and NM does not seem to want want our DIY money.

 

[huntmor2]

Attn Residents! Don't get excited yet. Some of us nonresidents are still going to apply, odds be damned!!! LOL

 

[1FastGambler]

>Attn Residents! Don't get excited
>yet. Some of us nonresidents
>are still going to apply,
>odds be damned!!! LOL
>
______________________________________________

Now THAT'S the spirit!

 

[longhorns26]

New Mexico aint getting my money

 

[Zim]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-28-11 AT 01:00PM (MST)[p]>Our group of DIY NR are
>definately out for 2012 and
>most likely out for 2013.
> We are burning points
>in Wyo. this year and
>plan on burning points in
>Colo. in 2013. After
>that we will see if
>NM has changed these absurd
>rules. Can only afford one
>hunt a year and NM
>does not seem to want
>want our DIY money.

Bout like me. I have max points in Wyoming & Oregon, 10 in Arizona, 15 in Colorado, plus four 320"-350" bulls already on the wall. Just enjoy my NM spot for familiarity and solitude. Nobody goes where I do, except a resident very rarely. I don't need New Mexico but I sure don't like to see DIY NR's get below 10% anywhere.

If they converted all 10% OF tags to resident, and made only residents elligible to buy LO tags it wouldn't bother me a bit.

 

[mossback50cal]

Everybody on here complaining that a state made it's residents' chances of drawing better? Every state has a system, and every state has a cap on the number of NR that can hunt it. The difference? Most states have over the counter tags, which NM DOES NOT! You don't want to spend your money here? Good, that's your choice. That way us residents can actually draw a tag and not see Texas, California, and all other state's license plates. I remember the unit I have always hunted in, the last year it was over the counter, a magazine said it had the best potential for trophies in the state. You couldn't go anywhere without seeing boat loads of NR, road hunting, and "lookin for trophies". I myself, am glad they lowered the cap, as that gives us residents a better chance to hunt, because unlike your states, if we do not draw, we do not hunt.

 

[MaineFlatlander]

I have no idea if I will apply or not. But I don't see why you used the numbers that you did? If I understand correctly you pulled only the first choice applicants. Why?? In NM I can draw my third choice before someone draws the same unit as a first choice if my name happens to come up first therefore you must account for all people applying in a unit not just the first choice applicants.

Just a quick look at the Barbary sheep hunt in unit 29-30. Last year 232 DIY NR applied for a tag. If those same people applied again they will be fighting for 36 (600 X 6%) tags meaning about 15% will draw.....a long ways from the number you posted.

In a nutshell NIY NR deer hunters lost just over 40% of "their" tags.

NR DIY archery elk hunters saw the same decrease while lost about 70% of tags.

 

[gleninaz]

Same deal here for most hunts. No draw, no hunt. I hope you take it down another 6% and get rid of landowner and outfitter tags and give all NR hunters 10%. Your chances will be better and so will the NR hunters that DIY hunt.

 

[1FastGambler]

>I have no idea if I
>will apply or not. But
>I don't see why you
>used the numbers that you
>did? If I understand correctly
>you pulled only the first
>choice applicants. Why?? In NM
>I can draw my third
>choice before someone draws the
>same unit as a first
>choice if my name happens
>to come up first therefore
>you must account for all
>people applying in a unit
>not just the first choice
>applicants.
>
>Just a quick look at the
>Barbary sheep hunt in unit
>29-30. Last year 232 DIY
>NR applied for a tag.
>If those same people applied
>again they will be fighting
>for 36 (600 X 6%)
>tags meaning about 15% will
>draw.....a long ways from the
>number you posted.
>
>In a nutshell NIY NR deer
>hunters lost just over 40%
>of "their" tags.
>
>NR DIY archery elk hunters saw
>the same decrease while lost
>about 70% of tags.
_____________________________

Not even close to accurate info. Better check your math.

Besides, the OP was discussing species, not specific hunt codes. You can find a hunt code that will produce just about any data you want to convey, looking at it the way the OP did is the correct way to look at it; if your discussing the topic of tag allocation on a per species basis.

Everyone has only one first choice, right? That is the only way to determine the number of actual applicants for a species.

I concur that the actual # of tags drawn in each category (Res, GNR, NR) is a more accurate approach, but doesn't have much impact on the overall %.

 

[mossback50cal]

I agree there. They say that outfitters bring in money to the economy. No they don't, they bring in money to their pockets.

 

[theox]

I will not apply. I hope this bill really bites NM in the butt. I dont mind the Res getting more tags, however what turned me away is the Outfitter pool receiving more tags than the DIY. What a slap in the face. They wont get my money. Wyoming and Colorado can have NMs portion of what NM got from me. Once they rid the outfitter pool than ill be back. I wouldnt care if NM res got 94% and diy res 6%
Its the fact that
THE OUTFITTER POOL GOT MORE THAN DIY. what a joke.

Sorry for you guys that were against it, maybe you oughta work on getting the bill changed.

for you NR that still apply i say shame on you for allowing them to bend you over and slap you in the face. Very few NM units are even worth the money compared to other states.

 

[DreaminOf200]

While I appreciate you taking the time to put this together, I don't think you're looking at the data in quite the right way. For starters, I know none of the deer hunts I've ever applied for had 64% draw odds or 26% draw odds for elk. While I don't debate your numbers, I just don't think that's the best way to assess the situation.

I may be wrong, but I don't think anyone on this site really cares about anything except deer, elk, and maybe antelope. Therefore, the "NR have better draw odds" argument doesn't work for me. Also, as Flatlander said, and according to your numbers, NR DIY deer hunters took a 40% cut in draw odds for a whopping 8% increase for residents. NR DIY elk hunters took a 60% cut in draw odds for a whopping 9% increase for residents. I think this is what upsets the NR DIY hunters. Now don't get me wrong, I'm in agreement with most others that the residents aren't the ones at fault on this, but the outfitter allotment is ridiculous. But the sunshine pumping about it not being THAT bad for NR DIY hunters, and others saying NR get too many tags gets a little old.

I still haven't made up my mind if I'm going to apply for 2012...just pi$$es me off that the majority of the hunts I want to go on offer less than 10 tags for DIY guys (and NM tags are expensive at that!)

 

[TOPGUN]

mossback50cal---Your statement about most states having OTC tags is flat out incorrect and most of the rest of your post is BS!!! I hope NM drowns in the cesspool they have created by doing what they did to us DIY hunters.

 

[NMPaul]

DIY NRs you guys got shafted because you were unrepresented. Pure and simple.

Residents were represented and outfitters were represented.

NRs will continue to apply and hunt in NM. NM is still as good a deal as most states for NRs depending if your trophy hunting or meat hunting. Meat hunters really got screwed.

If you do not live in a western state you can hunt in, you either really need to work the system (points, research etc...) or have money. That is how it is. Lots of people want to hunt and there are limited opportunities. The casual hunter is gonna fade away.

 

[TOPGUN]

You are sure right on most of what you stated NMPaul, especially those last two sentences. I can't agree with you, though, on your thinking that NM is as good a deal as many of the other states. It sure is a beautiful state and I had the priviledge of hunting the Gila on a ML mulie tag in 2010 and helping a friend on a rifle mulie hunt last month in 2b. That may be the last time, but I hope not.

 

[fishfurlife]

I agree Paul.

I will continue to apply as if nothing changed because I enjoy hunting in NM so much. I am guessing that my money will start to spread to other states as well on years that I do not draw in NM(Kansas and Colorado). NM is always my go to state and I have filled in other states on years that I did not draw a hunt. My guess is that not drawing a tag will become more frequent in years to come.

That is given that my draw odds go down following the change to the system.

 

[mossback50cal]

TopGun, How do you know my post is BS? I can back mine with data. I never said all states, but most Western states have some sort of over the counter big game hunting. As far as my reference to the unit, I can look up the numbers, and prove you wrong, but I am not gonna waste my time, because I witnessed it first hand. I am not here to argue, just voicing my opinion. And in no way is it against non-resident DIY hunters, it is against the Outfitters and people who pay them thousands of dollars to hunt on public land. I'm not mad at them, if they can get paid that much to do it, go ahead, I am just not ever gonna do it. If I can't spend MY time in the outdoors researching, I am not going to hunt that area. Plain and simple. People let big money get involved in hunting, and it is taking it down the drain. If the true meaning and enjoyment is getting outdoors with family and friends, why are people paying thousands of dollars for someone to find, and point out a "trophy" to them. My dad is getting older, and watching him harvest any animal is a hell of a lot better trophy than any of these hunters who pay thousands of dollars for someone to point them out, and shoot. Im all for DIY, just not guided. I have never, and will never go on a guided hunt. Im not spending my hard earned money for someone to get a chance to go outdoors and enjoy it, unless its me or my family.

 

[TOPGUN]

LAST EDITED ON Dec-30-11 AT 07:48AM (MST)[p]
moss---I couldn't agree with you more on almost everything you just posted! However, I believe you're way off base on your one statement about OTC tags. Also, the rant in your first post was sure different than this last one. Please tell me, other than the very limited tags that Idaho offers on a first-come first-serve basis and the general tags that Colorado has for elk for certain seasons in certain units, where all these OTC tags are available. If what you said was true, there would not be the griping that is going on about NRs getting tags out west. I'm not talking tags that go up for sale OTC AFTER the draws either, just strictly tags that are OTC as soon as states open their computers to apply. None come readily to my mind, other than what I just mentioned.

 

[mossback50cal]

Topgun, the first post was just that, a rant. After a 15 hour work day, and taking care of the kids for another 4 after. There are plenty of states that offer OTC tags, Idaho, Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, Arizona, Utah, all of them have some form of OTC big game hunting. It may be limited to Archery, or antelope, but they all have some form of OTC hunting if you do not draw your limited tags. New Mexico does not, and I think enough residents complained to get more tags allocated to Residents. Now, do I agree with outfitters getting a certain allotment? Heck no. I think they should put all in the same drawing, if they draw hunters, they do. If not, then O WELL! Our jobs and income is not guaranteed, why should theirs be?

 

[COLOelkman]

I'm 80% likely to not put in based on my understanding of the new rules but will decide when I see the final fees that they will charge. Does anyone know for sure what the fees for a NR will be? I'm only interested in "trophy" elk hunting since I'm fortunate to be able to hunt elk every year in CO, just not good trophy hunts based on my own choices. From my NR DIY take, I think NM is probably the most unreasonable system for a NR because the high fees to apply (from my understanding of it being around $80-90) in combination with no points system. Thus for low odds (a reality for any trophy hunt) with no potential to eventually draw a tag via point accumulation I think NM's system shafts the NR's more so than any other state that I've seen. All states systems have pro's and con's. I'd love to hunt NM and would continue to apply for low odds/high quality units but for the price, to me it's probably not worth it. I'd guess a lot of NR's will drop out so considering the cut in available tags, whether the odds get worse will depend on how many drop out. The outfitters quota is also a joke as most NR's and R's agree and one of the most slanted systems of any state!

 

[Zim]

COLOelkman, Sadly there are several states even worse to NR DIYers that aren't even worth applying for, such as Washington, Oregon (2 1/2%), Idaho......and the worst Utah, home of the auction system. I have 15 deer points there and once they are burned I am dumping all the rest there. Talk about powerball lotto odds thanks to SFW! I'm glad I have a few trophies but for the new guys coming up they are going to be SOL unless the feds finally say enuf is enuf on prostititing federal lands.

 

[Utah400Elk]

I have hunted NM twice. Once for elk and once for deer. The elk hunt was in 2001 by Luna NM and I took a 305 class bull archery. It was a great hunt and I ran into some great people. The second was in 2011 for deer in unit 4. Not the best hunt (a little too early) but I again ran into some great poeple. I am not sure what I will do in the future. NM is a beautiful state with great hunting and great people. In the past I have applied for Co, AZ, UT, NM and WY. I live in WY and might drop NM because of the license but I am not sure. Both UT and AZ require a license and I apply there but they have points. I don't like the point systems but have used them to my adavantage.

 

[COLOelkman]

Zim - You're probably right on with WA, OR , and ID but I don't agree with you on UT. I hunted it this year and it took 10 years to draw but at least I knew I'd draw some day. So just for comparison sake, if my UT app and NM app have similar fees with likely similar odds for good trophy areas, I think NM is worse in my opinion since I'll never get any "credit" for applying for several years. So low odds every year is basically a lottery where you're always hoping to get extremely lucky. In UT at least you have some chance (although very small) at some of the tags if you are not in the max point category but you'll draw if you stick with it eventually. I've burned my UT tag and will now not be feasible to draw in UT again but at least I got to go once. Although I don't like the point game either, and I was fine with the previous NM draw as it wasn't too pricey to apply, if the fees are too high, it's just not worth it to me. Again, at least I feel fortunate to be able to hunt every year which is not the case for many Western residents in their own state.

 

[TOPGUN]

Mossback50cal---I told you Idaho and Colorado had some OTC tags in my post. I hunt Wyoming every year and there are definitely no NR OTC tags for any big game there. To the best of my knowledge, neither does Montana or Utah when we're talking mulies, elk, and antelope. We are NOT talking leftovers here that the residents don't want after thoer draw. We're talking about good tags for those main three animals that people are most interested in and offered right from the getgo. I was also not talking about archery like the Coues tags you can get in AZ.

 

[WapitiBob]

All the NM fees are in the regs. They have been available online for several weeks.

 

[Zim]

COLOelkman, Well what I was referring to was the rookies getting started. They will not have anywhere near the same chance you had for your 10 year investment. If I were starting out now, no way I buy Utah points. Look at how low the NR quotas got, and look at how many applicants. Welcome powerball odds. They will never be guaranteed to draw if they live long enough, regardless of building points. They'll face dismal odds for decades. I was lucky in Utah. Drew a Book Cliff's on first application in 1997. Those days are long gone. On top of all this, do you think they won't steal more NR tags for auction within the next 10 years? Don't bet on it. Their politics are corupt.

If you can tell me what I can do with my 15 devalued UT deer points I'd appreciate it. Just when I would have drawn the Pauns they pulled the rug out by stealing NR tags to raffle out of my pool and adding 4 years min to my wait. A real class act they got going there.

Guess it's the one good thing that came out of none of my 3 sons choosing to be hunters. I could not afford to buy them points many places, and would be frustrated by declining NR DIY opportunity across so many states.

 

[COLOelkman]

Zim - I would agree with your take that UT has point creep making it worse for those just starting which is probably true for most states that have a point system. I would also agree that they have been stealing the NR tags for the auctions and raffles like the Expo which also urks me! Unfortunately the NR's voice is not as loud as the Residents voices thus we are an easy mark.
I think you can still get some quality hunts if you wait it out for elk but probably waiting for the top 1 or 2 areas is not a practical stragety if you are just starting out unless you are 14 and hope to draw it before you're 40! This is probably not true for deer since there are probably fewer top quality deer areas to pick from thus a bigger bottleneck for the few NR tags. My opinion would still be that NM is currently setup to be worse than UT since no points will give you extremely low odds for a top quality area every year for a similar fee (I think NM is higher)with those odds never changing.

 

[mossback50cal]

Topgun, I am not saying for NR. I am saying for residents. All the states I posted, plus more have resident over the counter tags. They have caps on how many can be sold, but they still offer OTC tags. New Mexico is one of the few states that does not. There are definitely more states that do than do not.

 

[nmelktrout]

Coryb, good post man. Some good points made by all. The bottom line is that New Mexico will not be the easy state for a nonresident to draw a tag that it has traditionally been. Nonresidents, we get it. We know you don't like the new system.

So, how long will it, the new quota last? Depends on how you, the nonresident market reacts with your checkbooks. You can continue to come on this forum and argue until you feel like you've finally gotten the last word, but that won't help your cause. In fact, it's likely that if you do draw a tag many of the NM guys on here will remember you and keep their collective mouths shut when you throw up that post asking for that all-so-important "good place to start." Remember, most of us on this forum are also DIY guys and many of us also fish and hunt other states and countries. Your target audience is not New Mexico's DIY hunters, it is our tourism board, chambers of commerce, outfitters, and fish and game offices that you need to voice your opinions to. New Mexico is a very reactionary state so a strong and organized NR movement could make the new quota a short-lived enterprise.

-Cody


www.streamflies.com

 

[theox]

zim utah is not that bad. put in for a general deer unit. there is quality bucks on dang near every general unit just work a little bit. NM only has a couple unit that shooting a 170 buck is possible. i have seen 170 bucks on every unit i have hunted on or looked for deer on in utah which is like 10 units. i have shot at or hunted a 170 plus buck every year i have hunted in utah.

 

[Zim]

COLOelkman, Have you looked at the odds for the top ten elk units and any of the OIL tags lately? Powerball.