Oregon Big Game Draw Seed Numbers

ricochet

Active Member
Messages
145
Found this on another site.

odfwseed.jpg_thumb.jpg
 

ricochet

Active Member
Messages
145
It will be posted on June 2, I'm told. They have to wait until after the June 1 deadline to change your application.
 

ricochet

Active Member
Messages
145
Application numbers are now posted. Personally, the only thing I learned was my extremely slim chance of drawing a bighorn or premium tag is now zero.
 

desperatehills

Very Active Member
Messages
1,141
I learned the same thing. My wife had a 40% chance at Mt Emily and her number is in the lowest 10% so our Oregon season is riding on our antelope draws which if there is no point creep are 100%
 

swanpig

Member
Messages
34
I followed the instructions in the above link from Wapiti Bob but the only options I see are for Spring Bear? Nothing for the deer tag I applied for. Am I missing something?
 

WapitiBob

Long Time Member
Messages
5,018
that link is just a description of how the seed numbers work and the new draw reports.
Your random numbers are listed as application numbers in your portal.
 

ricochet

Active Member
Messages
145
I followed the instructions in the above link from Wapiti Bob but the only options I see are for Spring Bear? Nothing for the deer tag I applied for. Am I missing something?
The actual drawing hasn't occurred yet. Comparing the seed numbers and your application numbers only give you an idea of your chances. The information you are looking for won't be available until after the drawing.
 

muleylover

Active Member
Messages
175
For most premium tags you need to be under 20,000 probably more like 15K to be in the running and within 5K for one of the big 3 elk units
 

desperatehills

Very Active Member
Messages
1,141
How to use these numbers.

Take the number of applicants from last year and divide it into 10,000,000

Example 10,000,000 divided by 500 applicants is 20,000. If there are two sheep tags available you would want your number to be over the seed number by less than 40,000. This is not exact, the numbers are random and can fall anywhere. Also you are using the number of applicants from last year, there could be a significant change that will change the odds as well.

Checking the seed numbers only lets you know if you have a chance. Most people checking their numbers learn that no love is headed their way.
 

yotebuster17

Member
Messages
50
Last year I was one of the top ten last picks for the statewide sheep tag. I honestly would just as soon not know that a narrowly missed a tag!!! I still lose sleep over that!!
 

CO Duck

New Member
Messages
1
Numbers go to 10m but only 350k licenses sold. Would that mean that 9.6m numbers are not in the mix? That we might be closer than we think?
 

desperatehills

Very Active Member
Messages
1,141
Visual of desperatehills explanation

View attachment 41881
This is a great example. Something else to add. In the 75% pool when the draw reaches a level were there are not enough tags for the applicants with the same amount of points, the seed numbers are used as well.

My wife applied for this hunt with 19 points. By last years odds and Ron Wolds prediction says 20 points would be 100% and 19 points would be 40%. My wife's application number is about 1 million below the seed number. That puts 90% of the applicants before her. She has no chance at a tag
 

WapitiBob

Long Time Member
Messages
5,018
Correct, people can see how they sort by points, then app random number in the new Bear draw report.
Leading zero's don't show on the app random number.

Untitled.jpg
 

ricochet

Active Member
Messages
145
So in my case I'm 3% above the elk seed number and Ron Wold says at my point level I have a 3% chance of drawing the tag I applied for. So I guess I'm firmly in the land of "maybe". For pronghorn I'm in a 68% draw level with an application number at 23% above the seed which should put me solidly into the lucky 68%.
 

WapitiBob

Long Time Member
Messages
5,018
I don't use percentages. I calculate how many tags are available, the total spread of random numbers those tags would consume, and see if I'm within that spread, above the seed number. Exactly like the example I borrowed and posted above.
 

ricochet

Active Member
Messages
145
Different methodology for the same outcome. Comparing percentages might not be as exact as determining the actual points within the spread, but since the application numbers are random, putting too fine a point on it seems like wasted effort. To each his own.
 

bobberdown

Active Member
Messages
112
How to use these numbers.

Take the number of applicants from last year and divide it into 10,000,000

Example 10,000,000 divided by 500 applicants is 20,000. If there are two sheep tags available you would want your number to be over the seed number by less than 40,000. This is not exact, the numbers are random and can fall anywhere. Also you are using the number of applicants from last year, there could be a significant change that will change the odds as well.

Checking the seed numbers only lets you know if you have a chance. Most people checking their numbers learn that no love is headed their way.
I'am 24,000 over for sheep tag, 2 tags for the unit might have a chance good luck to everyone
 

jdp010

Member
Messages
15
I love Oregon. But I feel really, really bad for all Oregonians today.

I have studied most of the western draws for years. And really wish I had never opened this thread.
 

desperatehills

Very Active Member
Messages
1,141
yes, checking seed numbers does feel like ruining christmas. Last year I had a chance at a sheep tag. Made for a long few weeks and even greater disappointment
 

ricochet

Active Member
Messages
145
Turns out comparing my application number's percentage above the seed number and Ron Wold's expected draw percentage was 100% accurate in my case.
 

oregonmuley

Very Active Member
Messages
1,009
Results are posted - drew a deer and antelope tag so pretty happy and looking forward to fall.
Good luck to everyone on your draws!
 
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