Point Creep

D

DeerMadness

Long Time Member
Messages
5,419
Point creep in Utah is ruining chances to ever draw before death for people who keep paying both res and non res hunters.
They should shut down the Expo draws for one year and give those tags to all the draws people have paid into years and years. That would catch things up , and then they could have their Expos as normal next year. At least it would make some progress.
 
I suggested this idea over a month ago...

it certainly wouldn’t “catch things up”, in fact I bet it would barley make a noticeable difference in the short game, however, 1 tag more issued every year, is one more guy getting cleared out of the draws for the following year
 
Deerkiller, sorry I didn't see your post, but something does need to be done. Utah Big Game owes it to fix things. I've paid my fees for 16 years and donated money to them also. It would be nice to draw the tag I want which isn't even a premium tag. And there are too many of us.
 
I guess I need my wife to proof read my posts right now. I have arthritis in my neck, had one of my large toenails removed and got a finger smashed at work. I hate these painkillers and I'm just sitting in the house until I heal. A little loopy so typos are worse.
 
We comment about how this is ruining things for us, who have devoted years of time, effort, and money into a draw for a tag that it seems we never get closer to drawing, but what about our kids? I look at my 2 year old son and cringe at how few opportunities he is going to have in states like Utah. I think removing expo tags would be a good start, but if we are being truthful, a lot more than that needs to be done if we want our kids to have any chance of enjoying remotely close to the same opportunities that we have had.
 
Yes, the Expo is taking away what we have been paying them for. Idahobgas a superhunt but they aren't pimping out all the tags like Utah has. I think it is a crime.
 
While it does suck to be 16 points deep and not draw a good tag, I don’t feel bad. There’s so many people in the same boat as you. I have 14 cow moose points and I’m not guaranteed a tag for another 10 years. For a cow! It’s just part of the game. Sucks, but it’s part of it
 
elkassassin said:
You're ahead of Me by a couple Points hornkiller!

That Mean We Ain't Huntin Bison for a While Yet?
Click to expand...
Well bess I'm a non res it hurt me worse than you! so you will probably be hunting before me. I'm hoping you get you elk tag this year before $.f.w. takes more tags for there corrupt organization bud!
 
Before you put in for a tag in Utah best look at what has been done to address point creep. Could be a lot of unhappy people this year.
 
Well in my opinion to help point creep out a bit we need to drop the 50/50 split and go to a 70/30 split for tags ? I think that would sure help those with the most points move through the system a bit faster.
 
I don't like the Expo tag set up any more than you do. However, putting those back in the regular draw would not even come close to making a dent in the point creep issue. It is a numbers game and your math doesn't add up

But I will tell you something that would have a profound effect, for NONRESIDENTS only. Stop allowing us to apply for more than one species. That would immediately at least double our odds of drawing A tag. They could still allow us to apply for points (so they get their money) but only allow us to apply for a single tag.
 
edwardsc said:
Well in my opinion to help point creep out a bit we need to drop the 50/50 split and go to a 70/30 split for tags ? I think that would sure help those with the most points move through the system a bit faster.
Click to expand...
I agree with this idea. I like it.
 
I've been advocating for this for at least 3 years, but not just the expo. If you add up the 200 expo tags and include the conservation tags they hand out to be auctioned off, that is over 500 tags every single year. I did a break down on species and numbers on this issue on this forum last year I believe. You can search for it if you want it.

One year won't make much of a difference, but if you talk about doing this over the space of 5 years, yes, that is a HUGE difference! There were about 190 elk tags given out in the expo and conservation tag pools in one year. Times that by 5, as that is the waiting period for elk. So in any given year (after 5 years of this, of course), that is 950 less people in the elk draw every single year. I realize that is not a huge percentage, but that is still 950 less qualified applicants EVERY year on top of those that are already drawing what is currently available in the public draw. That becomes a big deal.

I don't know how it ever happens, because the corruption and money involved is just too great, but it needs to happen. Any discussion about resolving point creep that does not include this very easy fix is a waste of breath, and you can use it as a sign that the people talking about it really don't care about point creep at all.

Another option, if the state is insistent on maintaining their welfare tag program, do not allow someone to purchase a tag at auction and still apply for that species in the draw or obtain a point. Same goes with the expo tags. If you apply for any deer permits at the expo, you can't apply for a LE deer permit in the public draw, and you can't obtain a point. Make people pick - regular draw, or expo. I don't love that idea, but if you want to help with point creep, that is a way to do it. I much prefer just putting them all back into the public draw where they should be anyway.
 
Get rid of all expo tags. With limited draw opportunity, a point system the way UT has is the best system for a point system. Otherwise end it, cut everyone a check equal to the points they've bought over the years and go total open draw.
 
edwardsc said:
Well in my opinion to help point creep out a bit we need to drop the 50/50 split and go to a 70/30 split for tags ? I think that would sure help those with the most points move through the system a bit faster.
Click to expand...
If you want point creep to slow down, seems like you would want all tags to go to max points. Why split it? Or only if you have at least half the max points. We all see people with 0 to very few points drawing OIL and premium tags. That is really hurting the point creep. I assume eventually there will be people aging out of hunting and not cashing in their points.
 
There's a reason no western state any longer has a 100% preference system. Several started that way, until they eventually realized that it doesn't work. What 35-year old, with any understanding of math, would ever start buying points in a system with zero chance to draw in his lifetime? Colorado deer & elk was the very last hold-out, and even they finally went to a 20% random split on their high-demand tags several years ago.
 
Birdman said:
Before you put in for a tag in Utah best look at what has been done to address point creep. Could be a lot of unhappy people this year.
Click to expand...
Birdman, can you summarize what changes are made? I am not in the loop.

Hawkeye
 
I see several good ideas here that could help point creep some but unfortunately I tend to agree with BeDawg---- point creep forever.
I am a non-resident who also doesn't understand why we can build points for both deer and elk limited entry every year other than DOW making some extra money. It didn't start out that way. I can remember alternating between deer and elk every other year as I wasn't allowed to apply for both. Not too many years into it they starting letting us apply for both so I started doing that. Back then I never heard of point creep!! If I would of had any idea how bad it was going to get I would of stayed with one species from the get go and I'd of drawn a great tag by now. As it is I sit with 17 for elk and 17 for deer and will probably never draw the premier areas for either. That's life.

The biggest thing that I disagree with is that once the bonus tags are used up or if a unit has just one tag it doesn't matter how many points you have you only get one shot at it just like someone who has 1 point or no points. For years I thought I got 1 chance for every point I had but in several discussions with DOW officials this year I found out they don't do it that way.

I do believe that people applying for the first time should have a chance to draw a tag in premium areas. But I also believe the person with 10 points should get 10 chances, 20 points should get 20 chances etc,etc. At least up the odds for people who have steadily applied for years. (not to mention the money they've donated).

Some states actually square the number of points you have each year thus making it even easier for high points people to draw while still allowing "newbies" some hope for a tag also.

Short of doing what Idaho does with no point system at all , point creep is probably here to stay and I'll keep donating my money each year and asking God to shine a little favor my way. This could be the year.

Good luck to each of you on this years draw.
 
quoting HORNhunter7:

========================

"The biggest thing that I disagree with is that once the bonus tags are used up or if a unit has just one tag it doesn't matter how many points you have you only get one shot at it just like someone who has 1 point or no points. For years I thought I got 1 chance for every point I had but in several discussions with DOW officials this year I found out they don't do it that way."

========================

HORNhunter7, if that were the case, it's in defiance of their own Administrative rule R657-62, which states, in part:

5)(a) Each applicant receives a random drawing number for:

(i) each species applied for; and

(ii) each bonus point for that species.
 
Wow!
I sure hope HORNhunter7 is mistaken in his post above. I always Understood we get one random number assigned for each point we have and then go into the draw with the lowest of those random numbers.
Anyone else?
 
HORNhunter7 said:
I see several good ideas here that could help point creep some but unfortunately I tend to agree with BeDawg---- point creep forever.
I am a non-resident who also doesn't understand why we can build points for both deer and elk limited entry every year other than DOW making some extra money. It didn't start out that way. I can remember alternating between deer and elk every other year as I wasn't allowed to apply for both. Not too many years into it they starting letting us apply for both so I started doing that. Back then I never heard of point creep!! If I would of had any idea how bad it was going to get I would of stayed with one species from the get go and I'd of drawn a great tag by now. As it is I sit with 17 for elk and 17 for deer and will probably never draw the premier areas for either. That's life.

The biggest thing that I disagree with is that once the bonus tags are used up or if a unit has just one tag it doesn't matter how many points you have you only get one shot at it just like someone who has 1 point or no points. For years I thought I got 1 chance for every point I had but in several discussions with DOW officials this year I found out they don't do it that way.

I do believe that people applying for the first time should have a chance to draw a tag in premium areas. But I also believe the person with 10 points should get 10 chances, 20 points should get 20 chances etc,etc. At least up the odds for people who have steadily applied for years. (not to mention the money they've donated).

Some states actually square the number of points you have each year thus making it even easier for high points people to draw while still allowing "newbies" some hope for a tag also.

Short of doing what Idaho does with no point system at all , point creep is probably here to stay and I'll keep donating my money each year and asking God to shine a little favor my way. This could be the year.

Good luck to each of you on this years draw.
Click to expand...

The problem with Preference points and squaring points...
You get an additional point each time you are in the draw. Before the draw begins.
Say there are 2 people with max points 24 each, that's 625 chances each at the lowest random #. So combined, for the top point holders there are 1250 chances at the lowest Random #.
Then say there are 450 people with 3 points each, that's 16 chances each at the lowest random #. Combined for all 450 people that's 7200 chances at the lowest random #. What typically happens is the permits get awarded to the people with lower points because of the number of applicants combined. 7200 chances compared to 1250 chances. When there are only 1 or 2 tags the top point holders may never draw a tag.
This is great for people just starting the points game,
not so much for top point holders.
 
Ironhead
The way I understand the point squaring system such as the way Nevada does it. As in your example if a person has three points going into the draw and they are squared it would equal nine. Plus an additional one for their application would give them 10 chances at the lowest random number.
You do make a good point however that the top point holders are far outnumbered by the rest of the masses.
As in the case of Utah were 50% of the tags go to the top point holders in the way of bonus tags. Once the bonus tags are gone and it’s back to the random draw usually those random tags go to those with lower points that are in the masses of applicants.
 
buckhorn said:
Wow!
I sure hope HORNhunter7 is mistaken in his post above. I always Understood we get one random number assigned for each point we have and then go into the draw with the lowest of those random numbers.
Anyone else?
Click to expand...

You are correct! While you only get one low number actually going into the draw, you will get as many chances as you have points (+1) to get that low number.
 
Want to help point creep go to getting a point for a unit, say you put in for San Juan elk you get a point for that and then you want to change units you start all over again for that unit but you'll keep the points you for San Juan
 
Hawkeye said:
Birdman, can you summarize what changes are made? I am not in the loop.

Hawkeye
Click to expand...
Birdman must be referring to the change in the Utah Tag return policy. Hopefully this will give the DWR more time to re-issue that returned Tag and hopefully they offer it to the next in line High Point holder.
 
Every time a tag is turned back, it goes to the drawn-alternate and it’s NOT going to be the highest points holder!
The only good it did was allow sufficient time to ensure the F&G can reissue the tag.
The F&G loves point creep and make no mistake about it.
Zeke
 
Zeke said:
Every time a tag is turned back, it goes to the drawn-alternate and it’s NOT going to be the highest points holder!
The only good it did was allow sufficient time to ensure the F&G can reissue the tag.
The F&G loves point creep and make no mistake about it.
Zeke
Click to expand...
Thanks Zeke
I know when I apply and Nevada there is a box on the application that you check if you wish to be considered as an alternate. And they offer the tag to the next in line point holder that has it as their first choice and has checked the alternate box.
I don’t recall an alternate checkbox on my Utah application. Am I just missing it?
 
buckhorn said:
Ironhead
The way I understand the point squaring system such as the way Nevada does it. As in your example if a person has three points going into the draw and they are squared it would equal nine. Plus an additional one for their application would give them 10 chances at the lowest random number.
You do make a good point however that the top point holders are far outnumbered by the rest of the masses.
As in the case of Utah were 50% of the tags go to the top point holders in the way of bonus tags. Once the bonus tags are gone and it’s back to the random draw usually those random tags go to those with lower points that are in the masses of applicants.
Click to expand...
You are correct Buckhorn, my mistake. You get your points squared plus an additional point for the year you are applying.
 
Sticksender-- Thanks for the info on admin rule. I hope that's the way it's getting done.

I'll explain how this all started concerning bonus points and what I was told.
Several years ago I was told something by a DOW rep from another state that turned out not to be true. It caused me a lot of grief and fortunately it got ironed out and they admitted the mistake they made. Since then I always double and sometimes triple check things that I'm told by calling several offices within the state I'm applying for.

Last year I was trying to figure out which area I would have the best chance of drawing with 16 points. I was basing it off of the the previous years app. stats which we all know can vary year to year, but ya gotta start somewhere. I called the SL office and ask if I got credit for this years application thus having 17 points going into the draw or did I just get credit for the 16. I was told just the sixteen. I hung up the phone and called another office in Utah and ask the same question. I was told I go into the draw with 17. Both people I talked to were sure of themselves. I went ahead and just applied because the difference between 16 and 17 was not going to guarantee me a tag anyway. Plus I had other irons in the fire so it wasn't a big deal to me. However if I had 22 or 23 points I would of pushed to make sure I was getting the right answer.

Fast forward to this year. I made the same two phone calls and ask the same question. This time I was told by both office people that you DO NOT get a point prior to the draw. You get the point if you don't draw. I argued a little saying that this is the 18th time I've applied so if I draw with just 17 what happens to my other point?? Both parties assured me this is the way it is. I'm confident whichever way they are doing it, it is the same for everybody.

This year I also asked both office people what I thought I already knew. Do you get one chance per bonus point in the draw when the bonus tags are used up or if there is just one tag? I was shocked to hear both people tell me no. I probed further asking more questions and questioning the fairness of this but both people told me once the bonus tags are used up or if there is only one tag it doesn't matter how many points you have you just get one shot.

I still can't imagine this being right but I cannot imagine two DOW people being wrong about this either?? In my mind there's not a lot of room to be misunderstood of what I was asking.

So Buckhorn--I like you hope I was told wrong and what sticksender says hold true.

If anyone can with 100% certainty shed some light on this I'd like to hear it

Thanx -- HH
 
I actually think all the information you received is correct, depending upon the context.

You do NOT get a point BEFORE you are unsuccessful in a draw. The point is awarded AFTER the draw is complete and you are unsuccessful. You either get a permit, or a point, not both. So if you have 16 points and are applying, you don't have 17 points. You only have 16 points. But you also have the current application, so it would be 17 total. 16 of those would be from points, and one would be the current application.

After the 50% of bonus tags are awarded to the top point holders and the other 50% are going to the entire application pool, I do not believe the draw is not conducted a second time. They simply draw from the lowest remaining numbers until all the permits are allocated. This is probably why you were told that it is only 1 try. Every application, whether it is a current application or a point, is given a number. The lowest numbers draw the permits. And since a person may only draw one permit, only their lowest number in the draw matters. So while you still had 17 opportunities in the draw, only your lowest number given was used to determine if you drew a permit or not.

So if I was applying for a hunt that had 100 permits, 50 of them would go to the top point holders and 50 would go to the application pool at large regardless of what points they have. Say I have 4 points (plus a current application, so 5 total), and the numbers my permits were assigned were 17, 31, 758, 903, and 5,657.

Only my app with number 17 assigned would be used. Even though 31 would technically draw a permit, I can't get two permits, so only one number is used.

This is a very simple breakdown of how it works, and how in context, depending on your question and also how your question was actually understood, could make all the answers you received "technically" correct.

To answer your question, you get as many tries in the hat as you have points, plus your current application. And only the your lowest assigned number matters in the draw.
 
Vanilla--- Thanks for clearing this up for me. Makes perfect sense now. Either I wasn't listening close enough, they weren't explaining good enough or a little of both. Regardless, I get it now.
Thanks again

HH7
 
Vanilla hit it on the head earlier-all solutions to point creep should include a return of Expo tags & Auction tags to the regular draw. I am ok with keeping one auction tag for each species but the total # of Auction tags currently in Utah is an absolute joke & obscene in every way.
 
If those expo tags get put back in the regular public draw. As a nonresident I would love to see an additional bonus tag going into the Henry’s and Pauns quota for the archery and muzzleloader hunts as well as the rifle. I believe that would go a long way to reducing point creep on the nonresident side for deer.
 
Vanilla said:
I actually think all the information you received is correct, depending upon the context.

You do NOT get a point BEFORE you are unsuccessful in a draw. The point is awarded AFTER the draw is complete and you are unsuccessful. You either get a permit, or a point, not both. So if you have 16 points and are applying, you don't have 17 points. You only have 16 points. But you also have the current application, so it would be 17 total. 16 of those would be from points, and one would be the current application.

After the 50% of bonus tags are awarded to the top point holders and the other 50% are going to the entire application pool, I do not believe the draw is not conducted a second time. They simply draw from the lowest remaining numbers until all the permits are allocated. This is probably why you were told that it is only 1 try. Every application, whether it is a current application or a point, is given a number. The lowest numbers draw the permits. And since a person may only draw one permit, only their lowest number in the draw matters. So while you still had 17 opportunities in the draw, only your lowest number given was used to determine if you drew a permit or not.

So if I was applying for a hunt that had 100 permits, 50 of them would go to the top point holders and 50 would go to the application pool at large regardless of what points they have. Say I have 4 points (plus a current application, so 5 total), and the numbers my permits were assigned were 17, 31, 758, 903, and 5,657.

Only my app with number 17 assigned would be used. Even though 31 would technically draw a permit, I can't get two permits, so only one number is used.

This is a very simple breakdown of how it works, and how in context, depending on your question and also how your question was actually understood, could make all the answers you received "technically" correct.

To answer your question, you get as many tries in the hat as you have points, plus your current application. And only the your lowest assigned number matters in the draw.
Click to expand...
I’ve seen some train wreck of explanations on how this works lately between Facebook and forums and I gotta say, you’ve done the best job I’ve seen at explaining to where it makes sense. So for what it’s worth, good job haha
 
buckhorn said:
If those expo tags get put back in the regular public draw. As a nonresident I would love to see an additional bonus tag going into the Henry’s and Pauns quota for the archery and muzzleloader hunts as well as the rifle. I believe that would go a long way to reducing point creep on the nonresident side for deer.
Click to expand...
Well keep dreaming and wishing cuz neither of those hopes/wants/dreams/wishes will ever happen
 
deerkiller said:
I’ve seen some train wreck of explanations on how this works lately between Facebook and forums and I gotta say, you’ve done the best job I’ve seen at explaining to where it makes sense. So for what it’s worth, good job haha
Click to expand...

Did we just become best friends?
 
HORNhunter7 said:
Sticksender-- Thanks for the info on admin rule. I hope that's the way it's getting done.

I'll explain how this all started concerning bonus points and what I was told.
Several years ago I was told something by a DOW rep from another state that turned out not to be true. It caused me a lot of grief and fortunately it got ironed out and they admitted the mistake they made. Since then I always double and sometimes triple check things that I'm told by calling several offices within the state I'm applying for.

Last year I was trying to figure out which area I would have the best chance of drawing with 16 points. I was basing it off of the the previous years app. stats which we all know can vary year to year, but ya gotta start somewhere. I called the SL office and ask if I got credit for this years application thus having 17 points going into the draw or did I just get credit for the 16. I was told just the sixteen. I hung up the phone and called another office in Utah and ask the same question. I was told I go into the draw with 17. Both people I talked to were sure of themselves. I went ahead and just applied because the difference between 16 and 17 was not going to guarantee me a tag anyway. Plus I had other irons in the fire so it wasn't a big deal to me. However if I had 22 or 23 points I would of pushed to make sure I was getting the right answer.

Fast forward to this year. I made the same two phone calls and ask the same question. This time I was told by both office people that you DO NOT get a point prior to the draw. You get the point if you don't draw. I argued a little saying that this is the 18th time I've applied so if I draw with just 17 what happens to my other point?? Both parties assured me this is the way it is. I'm confident whichever way they are doing it, it is the same for everybody.

This year I also asked both office people what I thought I already knew. Do you get one chance per bonus point in the draw when the bonus tags are used up or if there is just one tag? I was shocked to hear both people tell me no. I probed further asking more questions and questioning the fairness of this but both people told me once the bonus tags are used up or if there is only one tag it doesn't matter how many points you have you just get one shot.

I still can't imagine this being right but I cannot imagine two DOW people being wrong about this either?? In my mind there's not a lot of room to be misunderstood of what I was asking.

So Buckhorn--I like you hope I was told wrong and what sticksender says hold true.

If anyone can with 100% certainty shed some light on this I'd like to hear it

Thanx -- HH
Click to expand...

Per the 2019 Big Game/Dedicated Hunter Statement of Work which is part of the contract DWR has with Systems Consultants out of Fallon Nevada that I GRAMA'ed in August 2018. Task #8:

"Each applicant that can be entered is given a random draw number for the application, and for each bonus point, even applications that have been rejected."

It goes on to explain the 50/50 drawing which is referred to as the "bonus point reserved drawing" and ends with this:

"For the main drawing, applications are seperated for residents and nonresidents. Individual applications that are not in a group will be treated as belonging to a group of "one" Applicant groups who participated in the first pass will receive a new second set of random draw numbers, one random draw number for the application, and a number for each bonus point. The lowest random draw number from this assignment is retained and replaces their previous assigned draw number."

After the main drawing we read:

"A bonus point is awarded for each valid unsuccessful application when applying for limited entry or once-in-a-lifetime species; or each valid application when applying for bonus points for the limited entry or once-in-a-lifetime drawing. Bonus points are awarded by species."

So, YES, you get a random number for the application BEFORE the drawing and keep that point if you don't draw. AND the same process is done for the preference points! AND for ALL of the drawings that have a point system!

I don't know how much more official we could get! It's too bad that the DWR Administration doesn't train ALL of their employees! But, maybe you could!
 
Elkfromabove--- Thanks for shedding more light on what Vanilla had already explained. I do agree that more through training of DWR employees would be helpful. In fairness to them I get right info most of the time but on this issue ................... seems to have been a little confusion.

I had to chuckle about your comment of helping train some of their employees. Just last week in the state just north of you I called to ask a question on their lifetime licenses. ( I used to live there so I have one). The answer I got didn't sound right to me so I called a different office. Got a different answer. About 2 hours later and four or five phone calls we all got the official word on what was right. Three out of the four people were wrong( one of them being me) and the person we all thought couldn't possibly be right was. They got trained and I learned how they handle lifetime
licenses!

Seeings you guys have been kind enough to educate me on how bonus points and preference points work I'd be curious as to how they apply to the bonus point draw results stats put out by DWR at the end of the year.

I'll expand on Vanilla's example. The year is 2020. I have 4 bonus points. I apply for the Henry's ( bad example I know but ya gotta dream big) Including this years application I will have 5 chances of drawing. I get lucky and draw.

Here's the question. When they publish the Bonus point draw results at the end of the year does it show that someone drew the Henry's with 4 bonus points or do they include this years application and showing someone drew it with 5?

Obviously in this illustration it's not a big deal I just got lucky. However with 18 or 19 or 20 points and being on the edge of drawing some limited elk units it could. Lots of people ( myself included somewhat) use those stats when applying for tags. I realize that people jump around where they apply year to year so being on the edge of having enough points to draw a unit takes a little luck regardless.

I've got an idea how they do it but it doesn't coincide with how I think they should do it. I know some of you knowledgeable fellows will know how they do do it. Thanx in advance

HH7
 
Quote:

=========================

"Here's the question. When they publish the Bonus point draw results at the end of the year does it show that someone drew the Henry's with 4 bonus points or do they include this years application and showing someone drew it with 5?"

=========================

That person who drew with 4 points never got to 5 points. The only way for them to get to 5 points was to fail to draw. The published stats for a given year's draw list points upon entering.

The draw algorithm awards each applicant one random number for their application and one additional random number for each point held. The reason for that is to accommodate applicants with zero points.

Look at any of the draw reports and you will see a category for "0" points. That alone pretty much answers the question you posed.

Good luck in the draw.
 
I look at this way, would I pay 40 bucks (average) every year for a 3 to 5 percent chance at a great buck....yes

Now, is it frustrating that point creep makes it look like I will never have a "guarantee" year to get a tag.....yes

I have about 2000 people with more pts than me and I still do it because there arent very many 40 dollar raffles that are even close to 3 to 5 percent chance out there for a good hunt.
 

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