lostinOregon
Very Active Member
- Messages
- 2,006
I did some looking at the history of region G, because it is the unit I get asked most about when folks are looking at point creep. I found some interesting trends by looking at the raw data from the last 3 years. You can make your own conclusions from the data.
Region G (quotas):
2018 regular-162 tags 2018 special-108 tags
2019 regular- 163 tags 2019 special-109 tags
2020 regular-161 tags 2020 special-108 tags
Applications:
2018 regular-1110 2018 special-329
2019 regular-1312 (plus 202) 2019 special-428 (plus 99)
2020 regular-1202 (minus 110) 2020 special-540 (plus 102)
Points required to draw (100 percent rate)
2018 regular-less than 7 2018 special-less than 6
2019 regular-less than 8 2019 special-less than 7
2020 regular-8 2020 special-7
The tag allocation has remained stable at nearly the same rates from 2018 to 2020. Applications are increasing each year with the exception of 2020 regular which showed a reduction of 110 applications. What is more important than the number of applications, is how many points are the new applicants jumping into this race with. I looked at the top point holders for Region G in all three years, and both license types. The amount of people jumping in with maximum points on a single application, has not increased at all. In fact the amount of people applying at maximum points has remained static on the regular draw. On the special draw the amount of people that are applying has remained below maximums points with the highest point holder drawing at being less than 9 in 2018, an anomaly in 2019 with 1 person applying with 12, then it drops back to the norm at 9 points and up to 10 points in 2020. Each year the maximum number of points continues to increase, so these are not out of line with this trend of not increasing.
Where the application increase is coming from is right at the point level that it took to draw the tag the year before, plus a half to full point. This trend has played out all 3 years.
What is interesting is in the special draw. The amount of points to draw in the special is trending at 50 % of maximum points.
In 2020 the special took 7 points and maximum points a person could have is 14. In 2019 the special took less than 7 points (so assume 6.5) and the maximum points a person could have was 13. In 2018 the special took less than 6 points and the maximum points a person could have was 12. I believe this is where the maximum point holders are jumping in combining with someone at zero or one point.
If these trends continue in 2021 the regular will probably take less than 9 to 9 points, and the special will take less than 8 points to 8 points to draw.
The only factor that is not considered in this, is the 90/10 conversation that is occurring with folks trying to cash out in Wyoming and the reduction of tags in 87/89/34 which take about the same amount of points. This analysis is also before the hunting magazines come out with their predictions on where to apply. These can influence draw odds also. Tonight I saw a TV news report that Colorado big game applications were up this year by 35,000 applications. I expect Wyoming to get hit by the same increases so plan accordingly.
Rich
Region G (quotas):
2018 regular-162 tags 2018 special-108 tags
2019 regular- 163 tags 2019 special-109 tags
2020 regular-161 tags 2020 special-108 tags
Applications:
2018 regular-1110 2018 special-329
2019 regular-1312 (plus 202) 2019 special-428 (plus 99)
2020 regular-1202 (minus 110) 2020 special-540 (plus 102)
Points required to draw (100 percent rate)
2018 regular-less than 7 2018 special-less than 6
2019 regular-less than 8 2019 special-less than 7
2020 regular-8 2020 special-7
The tag allocation has remained stable at nearly the same rates from 2018 to 2020. Applications are increasing each year with the exception of 2020 regular which showed a reduction of 110 applications. What is more important than the number of applications, is how many points are the new applicants jumping into this race with. I looked at the top point holders for Region G in all three years, and both license types. The amount of people jumping in with maximum points on a single application, has not increased at all. In fact the amount of people applying at maximum points has remained static on the regular draw. On the special draw the amount of people that are applying has remained below maximums points with the highest point holder drawing at being less than 9 in 2018, an anomaly in 2019 with 1 person applying with 12, then it drops back to the norm at 9 points and up to 10 points in 2020. Each year the maximum number of points continues to increase, so these are not out of line with this trend of not increasing.
Where the application increase is coming from is right at the point level that it took to draw the tag the year before, plus a half to full point. This trend has played out all 3 years.
What is interesting is in the special draw. The amount of points to draw in the special is trending at 50 % of maximum points.
In 2020 the special took 7 points and maximum points a person could have is 14. In 2019 the special took less than 7 points (so assume 6.5) and the maximum points a person could have was 13. In 2018 the special took less than 6 points and the maximum points a person could have was 12. I believe this is where the maximum point holders are jumping in combining with someone at zero or one point.
If these trends continue in 2021 the regular will probably take less than 9 to 9 points, and the special will take less than 8 points to 8 points to draw.
The only factor that is not considered in this, is the 90/10 conversation that is occurring with folks trying to cash out in Wyoming and the reduction of tags in 87/89/34 which take about the same amount of points. This analysis is also before the hunting magazines come out with their predictions on where to apply. These can influence draw odds also. Tonight I saw a TV news report that Colorado big game applications were up this year by 35,000 applications. I expect Wyoming to get hit by the same increases so plan accordingly.
Rich
Last edited by a moderator:
I probably need to in the next year before I move to WY and lose them.
