Sheep and goat draw recaps are out
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ColoradoOak
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47 sheep tags drawn by the 3+0 crowd, but surprisingly 35 were ewe tags.
What depresses me is only 29 of the 318 tags were drawn at my point level and above. And only 10 of the 234 goat tags went to my point level and above.. We're being overwhelmed by the numbers, and it's going to continue to get worse.
ddsflyfisher
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It is fascinating to see the numbers... 1/19 resident lucky soul with 23 yrs in finally drew... 12 ram tags to 3+0- wow! 3/573 youth drew with 3+0- those are some excited 14/15 year olds... how things draw out always surprises me.
ddsflyfisher
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My bad- I was looking at the goat tags- lol?.. the sheep it is much worse...
ridgerunner
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Thats the problem with the point systems, we are seeing that in WA as well, there are so many applicants at the lower levels they are taking tags away from those with higher points just on volume. So your draw odds are going down every year instead of up. It is depressing.
Focoelkman
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Some folks are finally figuring it out.......
I've gone rounds with guys who know mathematics and continue to say points matter with odds. What they can't grasp is probability goes down when 2k 3+0 point holders are added every year. Moose numbers should be interesting.
ridgerunner
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Oh I've figured it out several years ago, what blows me away is all the people jumping into the OIL point system now, basically throwing money away for a snowballs chance in hell of drawing someday. Thankfully I've already drawn sheep and moose in WA so once I did that I really limited my out of state apps for those species.
Those are the guys gettin the tags, because there are more of them. They have little invested. I had to come up with $1k every spring for 20yrs. My thank you was a kick in the nuts, thanks for playing, we've moved the goalposts.
The_Coloradoboy
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brushcreek
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i wonder if we will start to see guys get to 3 points and just apply without getting more points. That's what I've decided to do.
Then in a few years we'll have 12k in the 3+0 pool and they'll be pulling 48 ram tags a year. Then they'll probably say we might as well go straight random and just charge everybody $100 app fee. Had they just continued to charge the license fee up front we wouldn't be where we are now. Many on here applauded that move. Wonder what they think now?
tkjwonta
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I think it was pretty clear when they dropped the requirement to front the tag fee that the move was made to benefit the state by generating more $. I'm curious if they ever considered increasing the preference point floor. For example, instead of 3 points, moving it to 5. Or, maybe having a set aside tag allocation for those applicants with more than X points and then the rest of the tags available for everyone.
I think the one thing you can count on with any of these preference point systems is change, especially when demand far outpaces supply.
I think the one thing you can count on with any of these preference point systems is change, especially when demand far outpaces supply.
I'm only 2 behind you bh, and am continuing to buy pp's in hopes they change the system again. They'll probably do what I said above and eliminate pp's for the final blow! Wonder if I could then sue the state for the value of those points, including the financial and emotional stress???
hoopscoach
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I quit buying points when then started charging $50 for them. The miniscule improvement in my odds did not even remotely justify spending that much for another point.
If they ask for my opinion, I would tell them to take a page from the Nevada playbook and square (or even cube) a person's weighted points and give them that many random numbers in the draw instead of just giving them one extra random number for each weighted point they have. That will give the applicants with more weighted points a significant advantage of drawing. Those who have been religiously putting in for years should be rewarded with better draw odds than those who are just starting.
Then, I would tell them to make harvest reporting mandatory for all species...
Then, I would tell them to move the draw deadline to a few days after tag numbers are finalized... or at least give applicants the opportuning to modify their applications (during a short window) after the tag numbers are finalized.
There might be a few other things I would tell them but it's unlikely they will ask my opinion
Just my 2 cents worth...
If they ask for my opinion, I would tell them to take a page from the Nevada playbook and square (or even cube) a person's weighted points and give them that many random numbers in the draw instead of just giving them one extra random number for each weighted point they have. That will give the applicants with more weighted points a significant advantage of drawing. Those who have been religiously putting in for years should be rewarded with better draw odds than those who are just starting.
Then, I would tell them to make harvest reporting mandatory for all species...
Then, I would tell them to move the draw deadline to a few days after tag numbers are finalized... or at least give applicants the opportuning to modify their applications (during a short window) after the tag numbers are finalized.
There might be a few other things I would tell them but it's unlikely they will ask my opinion
Just my 2 cents worth...
Very well said, but I live in Nv. and points squared or not like I said earlier a person is better off being lucky then having a lot of points. Maybe after a person hits 60, 65 or 70 years old they should have some kind of bonus other that a birthday party.I quit buying points when then started charging $50 for them. The miniscule improvement in my odds did not even remotely justify spending that much for another point.
If they ask for my opinion, I would tell them to take a page from the Nevada playbook and square (or even cube) a person's weighted points and give them that many random numbers in the draw instead of just giving them one extra random number for each weighted point they have. That will give the applicants with more weighted points a significant advantage of drawing. Those who have been religiously putting in for years should be rewarded with better draw odds than those who are just starting.
Then, I would tell them to make harvest reporting mandatory for all species...
Then, I would tell them to move the draw deadline to a few days after tag numbers are finalized... or at least give applicants the opportuning to modify their applications (during a short window) after the tag numbers are finalized.
There might be a few other things I would tell them but it's unlikely they will ask my opinion
Just my 2 cents worth...
I quit buying points when then started charging $50 for them. The miniscule improvement in my odds did not even remotely justify spending that much for another point.
If they ask for my opinion, I would tell them to take a page from the Nevada playbook and square (or even cube) a person's weighted points and give them that many random numbers in the draw instead of just giving them one extra random number for each weighted point they have. That will give the applicants with more weighted points a significant advantage of drawing. Those who have been religiously putting in for years should be rewarded with better draw odds than those who are just starting.
Then, I would tell them to make harvest reporting mandatory for all species...
Then, I would tell them to move the draw deadline to a few days after tag numbers are finalized... or at least give applicants the opportuning to modify their applications (during a short window) after the tag numbers are finalized.
There might be a few other things I would tell them but it's unlikely they will ask my opinion
Just my 2 cents worth...
We only get 1 random number, no matter how many points we have, just like those in the 3+0 pool.
hoopscoach
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Hmmm, I was thinking applicants received a random number for each weighted point they have and then they throw out all but the lowest number. It turns out they do some ninja kung fu manipulating to your application number and then divide it by the number of weighted points you have +1. The lower this final number is, the better chance an applicant has to draw.
I would still like to see them do something like squaring, doubling or tripling to an applicants weighted points to give an increased advantage to those who have been applying for years. It doesn't seem like they are getting much of an advantage based on the number of people with 0 and 1 weighted points that drew this year...
I would still like to see them do something like squaring, doubling or tripling to an applicants weighted points to give an increased advantage to those who have been applying for years. It doesn't seem like they are getting much of an advantage based on the number of people with 0 and 1 weighted points that drew this year...
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tkjwonta
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I think the Colorado system is somewhat clever, but it was also designed over 20 years ago, when western hunting and applications were much different than they are today. Any changes that are made now are either going to disenfranchise new applicants or seasoned applicants, and you can almost always bet on the latter.
I've resigned myself to the fact that draw systems are the way they are, and are unlikely to change in my favor in the future. I think the most impactful thing that sportsman can do to increase their odds of drawing one of these coveted tags is to support habitat improvements and research to expand the populations and hunting opportunities for these great animals. That, and invest wisely so that you can eventually buy a tag somewhere else rather than stacking up unsuccessful notices.
I've resigned myself to the fact that draw systems are the way they are, and are unlikely to change in my favor in the future. I think the most impactful thing that sportsman can do to increase their odds of drawing one of these coveted tags is to support habitat improvements and research to expand the populations and hunting opportunities for these great animals. That, and invest wisely so that you can eventually buy a tag somewhere else rather than stacking up unsuccessful notices.
delmag1942
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SS!
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Did they ever promise you a tag? Now it’s a raffle ticket? It always has been. The only difference is you’re finally accepting the fact it is what it’s always been.
I feel real sorry for you guys that will not be sheep hunting this year. You all have a permanent invite to join me this year. We are walking in august 7th. Come 1 come all! If this year doesn’t work for you I’m going next year too. And the year after that. And the year after that. PM for details. Serious offer.
Bookhead
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Id take that offer
SS!
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Come on up! Chugach mountains in august. If we find any dead heads you can take em home.
Bookhead
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Oh dang I wanna be a trigger man!?
sticksender
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Not that it really matters, but there were 143 NR's with 20 weighted sheep points going into this year's draw. Only one of them drew a license. Eight applied for points only. Two other NR's were listed with 3+21. But I agree, luck is what matters most.
Bluehair
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This is the crux of the issue. Supply/demand is way out of whack.
Multiplied by the influx of applicants due to no longer having to front the tag money.
ColoradoOak
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You want to talk about way out of whack. The bighorn sheep herds in the map area below have a total estimated population of 1,470 (2019 numbers, so they have changed slightly). Yet there are over 30,000 domestic sheep authorized to graze on National Forest lands in the same area. If you want to fix the bighorn sheep supply problem you have to give them more elbow room.
Mtn maggots certainly aren't good for bighorns! Improving habitat, preventing home development/mtn maggots, etc sure helps out. More bighorns means more tags!
The CPW certainly isn't doing those that have applied for years and years to draw high demand tags any favors!
The CPW certainly isn't doing those that have applied for years and years to draw high demand tags any favors!
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