Some advice to any and all posting for help in units they drew and never been in.....

BUGLEnmIN

BUGLEnmIN

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DAMNN!

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Ropinfool said:
he's an easily offended liberal
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Seriously, I’ve always got along with Brian too.
it’s called the 1st amendment! We have to see unit dropping posts all over , and I get told for posting a gif disagreeing? Haha cancel culture!

Our draw gets flooded by “mathematicians” who look at nothing but odds and know nothing about what or where they’re applying! That’s all fine and dandy just get off ur butt and at least go try!!!
NON RES nothing to do with you all!
 
Same
roadrunner said:
If a youth hunter is involved, I will always get someone pointed in the right direction if I can.

Really don't care if an adult fills their tag or not, but if they PM I will help.
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same here ! Pm works great ! Have had several in already that I’m talking too! Sheesh
 
BUGLEnmIN said:
Same

same here ! Pm works great ! Have had several in already that I’m talking too! Sheesh
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The humor in your joke is that Boy Wonder is always asking Batman something and Boy Wonder can't seem to be a self starter and figure things out on his own.

In case anyone missed it, that's why it was funny.
 
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As a non resident of New Mexico any starting point from a resident is huge. It give most guys an area to look over on maps, google earth etc. I understand where your coming from when it comes to a resident. I put in for (6) states every year and the states I’ve drawn in the past I’ve always got good info from members here. I drew a Utah archery goat tag a few years ago and 2 guys dialed me right in. Had a guy last year draw the same tag and he reached out to me from searching the unit on MM. His dad ended up killing a goat based on my info. I’ve helped a couple non resident guys out over the years in my home state of AZ. Had a member here point me in the right direction on my 2A Jan deer hunt I drew. He didn’t have to do that but I appreciate it.
 
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ruthunter said:
As a non resident of New Mexico any starting point from a resident is huge. It give most guys an area to look over on maps, google earth etc. I understand where your coming from when it comes to a resident. I put in for (6) states every year and the states I’ve drawn in the past I’ve always got good info from members here. I drew a Utah archery goat tag a few years ago and 2 guys dialed me right in. Had a guy last year draw the same tag and he reached out to me from searching the unit on MM. His dad ended up killing a goat based on my info. I’ve helped a couple non resident guys out over the years in my home state of AZ.
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When it's an OIL hunt, I will even give guys gps coordinates where I shot mine or got into them.

A general draw where we could end up in the same drainage one year, or the friend the other guy helps when he draws the tag, is a different deal...
 
roadrunner said:
When it's an OIL hunt, I will even give guys gps coordinates where I shot mine or got into them.

A general draw where we could end up in the same drainage one year, or the friend the other guy helps when he draws the tag, is a different deal...
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Telling you man ! SAME
 
Jarhead said:
Rut hunter how is the draw in Az say in the alpine area thanks
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Unit 1 and 27 are pretty sought after. Excellent units. Takes 18pts to guarantee that elk tag as a non resident for archery. A few bulls every year come out of there pushing 400inches. The jimmy John Bull last year which was well over 4hundy came out of 27.
 
ruthunter said:
Unit 1 and 27 are pretty sought after. Excellent units. Takes 18pts to guarantee that elk tag as a non resident for archery. A few bulls every year come out of there pushing 400inches. The jimmy John Bull last year which was well over 4hundy came out of 27.
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And for enough money they will find him, take the gun for you and run you in and out of the spot on a mule! Cause that’s hunting!
 
I appreciate the humor here, and I'll also say I appreciated getting some feedback and encouragement on these forums when I came fishing for info for my first NM hunt several years ago. In fact, I wish I could draw a good tag again which would inevitably lead to fishing for more info ?
 
Also don’t tell anyone they have a mediocre tag. It is a trick question, just like “do these pants make me look fat”. They want us to lie to them and tell them they will kill a monster as long as they are willing to pass on the dozens of other bucks they see each day.
 
BrianID said:
Also don’t tell anyone they have a mediocre tag. It is a trick question, just like “do these pants make me look fat”. They want us to lie to them and tell them they will kill a monster as long as they are willing to pass on the dozens of other bucks they see each day.
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The ones you need to watch out for are the lurkers. The ones who draw killer tags, sit back and are silent and let everyone do all the talking because they think they don't have the tag...
 
Ha! That's the first time in 10 years that I kinda felt like defending myself. It's probably just hyperbolic teen-girl emotionalism on my part (ain't nobody immune their whole life). But if that was a not-in-fun jab from RR then, geewhiz, my posting record is public so maybe base an opinion on something substantial. Not everybody continuously bugles like a horny bull elk. Some of us sneak in all stealthy and whisper. We're less likely to get shot that way. FWIW I have plenty of outgoing PMs also.
 
Reuben_Soady said:
Some of us sneak in all stealthy and whisper. We're less likely to get shot that way. FWIW I have plenty of outgoing PMs also.
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Maybe I should adopt your strategy and just not comment on different posts. It is that time of year on MM when everyone is hypersensitive due the long wait between hunting seasons and your likely to get shot if you open your mouth.
 
As a non resident it’s impossible to scout all the units you MIGHT draw. This site has been a great way to get in contact with others that have knowledge of an area. Once someone post their unit and questions I feel it should move to PM’s after that. AND people should post their success (or unsuccessful) hunt stories. As much as everyone thinks their unit is a secret, most likely more people know about it than you think. At the same time I find it disappointing when helping someone and then never hearing from them again.
 
I don't understand why its so tough for some folks. If you really want advice all you have to do is use a little work ethic and most folks are more then willing. Call the local BLM or forest service office and talk to the biologist, if he wont talk talk to the road crew or rangeland folks they are almost always helpful. Call the game warden and state biologist and talk to them. Local MDF or RMEF chapter folks too. Use the search function on MM to find everything you can about the unit from past posts. Use google earth or similar to try and figure out a simple game plan, thoughts, and a couple specific areas of interest/focus as a first draft based on the information you gathered thus far. Then DM the folks that offered advice on the unit in the past from your MM research describing your plan and thoughts and the lessons the other folks shared with you and what they think is right/wrong/better and boom like magic the good folks at MM are usually very helpful. Even with phone tag on the part of state and federal employees doing their day jobs really doesn't take that much time.
 
BlackBear53 said:
I don't understand why its so tough for some folks. If you really want advice all you have to do is use a little work ethic and most folks are more then willing. Call the local BLM or forest service office and talk to the biologist, if he wont talk talk to the road crew or rangeland folks they are almost always helpful. Call the game warden and state biologist and talk to them. Local MDF or RMEF chapter folks too. Use the search function on MM to find everything you can about the unit from past posts. Use google earth or similar to try and figure out a simple game plan, thoughts, and a couple specific areas of interest/focus as a first draft based on the information you gathered thus far. Then DM the folks that offered advice on the unit in the past from your MM research describing your plan and thoughts and the lessons the other folks shared with you and what they think is right/wrong/better and boom like magic the good folks at MM are usually very helpful. Even with phone tag on the part of state and federal employees doing their day jobs really doesn't take that much time.
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Spot on!
 
This thread is why don't apply for just any hunt or unit. If I can't spend the required time to scout it and learn it before a hunt or dedicate the required time to put an honest effort into the hunt, I won't burden someone by asking.

I've hunted a very trophy UT LE Bull unit OTC archery and general draw antlerless several times to learn the unit in the off chance I never draw the tag one day.

I stick to what I know, which is why I probably don't draw. Application brokers and other hunting personalities have done my home units no favors...
 
I was given significant help with my first tag out west (youth tag for my nephew). Were it not for that help we may not have had such a great experience. I have received more help since then. Now that I have drawn many tags and been on lots of scouting trips/hunts I have been able to pay it forward. My much bigger concern is the rapidly diminishing draw odds - if this trend continues we will have more hunters but less opportunity to hunt (at least out west on public land). I am 50 years old and have points built up for several states/species but Lord help those just getting into this racket. I help several people apply out west, I will likely pull back on that but still offer help to those that do have tags when I can.
 
Iowan said:
- if this trend continues we will have more hunters but less opportunity to hunt (at least out west on public land).
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This and knowing, or people figuring out, there is no point system in NM and that they won't lose anything if they sit out a year or two and then circle back and apply again...
 
With NM hunting applications steadily increasing every year not to mention an additional 60,000 new ones this year, odds of ever drawing again have tanked and will only continue to do so.
 
toklat said:
With NM hunting applications steadily increasing every year not to mention an additional 60,000 new ones this year, odds of ever drawing again have tanked and will only continue to do so.
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Sad but true. NM doesn't care, it's the revenue they want, not the ability of consistently being able to hunt.
 
Don't get me started on points systems. Despite NM allowing folks to "sit out" and then "get back in" we still have the best thing going. All points do is basically reduce or completely eliminate your odds for X number of years with possibly some light at the end of the long tunnel. At least with our system we really do have an even chance every year.

Want to increase odds (except for rifle) go back to the system of having to make all 3 choices the same. So anyone dedicated with Muzzle would have better odds and so to Bow. As it is now every throws a muzzle or bow 3rd choice even if they don't own one.

All these Covid enthusiasts have overloaded the all western hunting applications, my understanding is average 30% increase everywhere. Same with mountain biking, hiking, camping, 4-wheeling, etc. I'm just hoping pretty soon they all go back to their couches and video games or wherever they've been up until now.
 
based on the math it seems to me that no point system such as nm with as many as 60k new apps. your odd get worse , wear as most other states with pts my odds got better. If this is the new trend than nm may get as tough to draw an elk tag as a sheep tag. I have been applying in nm for 24 years and drew muzzy 34 nearly 20 years ago and a late 2b deer maybe 10 years ago and this year I got a first muzzy unit 13 so that seems like real bad odds and they are getting worse. I am a nonres. I dont really care if nm starts selling pt but I will be buying,
 
smarba said:
Don't get me started on points systems. Despite NM allowing folks to "sit out" and then "get back in" we still have the best thing going. All points do is basically reduce or completely eliminate your odds for X number of years with possibly some light at the end of the long tunnel. At least with our system we really do have an even chance every year.
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Depends on the point system and how it's ran. If done right, the more points you have you only increase your personal chances for a better place in the list against others new to the game. It's still random.

Once you draw, your points are set to zero and you start over. You can only use your points for one species to have an advantage to draw the species you want most. The other species are done as it is now. The only way to earn a point is to apply for a tag, no buying points for the price of an app fee.

Colorado's model is stupid.

smarba said:
Want to increase odds (except for rifle) go back to the system of having to make all 3 choices the same. So anyone dedicated with Muzzle would have better odds and so to Bow. As it is now every throws a muzzle or bow 3rd choice even if they don't own one.
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This is the best way. Choose your weapon.
 
I get there are some systems that are better than others. But by definition if "your" chances go up, then "someone else's" chances go down. Has to happen. Because if my odds go up, yours go up, his goes up, hers goes up...then relatively none of ours have gone up.

All systems have to juggle fewer tags than demand.

In most cases it becomes all about $$$. Institute a point system and force people to shell out $ year after year. I'm not a fan.
 
smarba said:
I get there are some systems that are better than others. But by definition if "your" chances go up, then "someone else's" chances go down. Has to happen. Because if my odds go up, yours go up, his goes up, hers goes up...then relatively none of ours have gone up.

All systems have to juggle fewer tags than demand.

In most cases it becomes all about $$$. Institute a point system and force people to shell out $ year after year. I'm not a fan.
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And over time as my chances go up, and
I finally draw a tag because of it, yours will go up next year because I'm set back to zero. Yours then begin to go up until you draw and the cycle repeats all the while you still have a chance of pulling the tag each year, just not as good as the guy who keeps striking out year after year after year.

Much better scenario for all involved. This works well with states that provide an ample amount of tags, not a small handful.

Again, the only way to get a "point" is to apply. While applying, you can still draw. The guy who applys for 10 years just has 9 more chances of getting a better draw number in a still random draw.

I am a fan.
 
I like that each state has a different system. Can you imagine if every state were like Utah. Sure you have a chance to draw each year (I have drawn twice but before the crazy increase in applications) but in reality someone just starting out at age 35 may never draw a LE tag. My rough calculations is that I actually build about 0.3 points in Utah each year (the tag I wanted when I started took 8 points and it will take about 24 to draw by the time I get there). New Mexico allowed me to draw some great tags while I was building points in other states. I do believe we need to take advantage of this increase in applicants to increase application fees, annual license, and resident/non-resident permit fees. Use it to improve and preserve habitat so we can issue more tags.

Colorado is about .5 points per year.
Wyoming is much better at about .75 points per year.

I would like to see New Mexico provide a 'loyalty' bonus. Maybe after applying for five years in a row without drawing any tag you get your name in the hat twice?
 
Iowan, NM actually tried something similar sometime back to what what you recommended above.
Your thought of a number of unsuccessful people applying consistently should have their name throw in the hat twice.
This eventually and unfortunately results in more and more unsuccessful people applying every year for this second go around drawing to the point that again, more people are competing for the same limited quota of “loyalty” tags than available.
As an example, NM, numerous years ago, used to offer a guaranteed rifle antelope tag to anyone who unsuccessfully applied for a goat tag three years in a row. G and F would send an unsuccessful applicant an “unsuccessful voucher” every year up to three years. After three years, an applicant would submit the three unsuccessful vouchers with the fourth application and automatically receive a goat tag. This program lasted for all of about three years.
As expected, more applicants ended up with three unsuccessful vouchers than goat tags available!
The major problem these days highlights the sad reality is that more people are applying for the limited number of tags available.
Supply and demand at it’s worth.
 
toklat said:
Iowan, NM actually tried something similar sometime back to what what you recommended above.
Your thought of a number of unsuccessful people applying consistently should have their name throw in the hat twice.
This eventually and unfortunately results in more and more unsuccessful people applying every year for this second go around drawing to the point that again, more people are competing for the same limited quota of “loyalty” tags than available.
As an example, NM, numerous years ago, used to offer a guaranteed rifle antelope tag to anyone who unsuccessfully applied for a goat tag three years in a row. G and F would send an unsuccessful applicant an “unsuccessful voucher” every year up to three years. After three years, an applicant would submit the three unsuccessful vouchers with the fourth application and automatically receive a goat tag. This program lasted for all of about three years.
As expected, more applicants ended up with three unsuccessful vouchers than goat tags available!
The major problem these days highlights the sad reality is that more people are applying for the limited number of tags available.
Supply and demand at it’s worth.
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Supply and demand at it’s “worst”!
 
What makes the most sense with a "point" system is to only increase your chances to have your app looked at first while still doing a random draw with nothing guarenteed because you have the most "points".

UT's LE random draw does just that. They just don't offer enough tags.
 
Still...if someone gets an increased chance, by definition someone else gets a decreased chance.
I guess it all boils down to what you view as "fair". Is it fair for someone to draw 3 tags in 4 years while you draw none?

In my mind rolling the dice is purely random and "fair". If someone else draws more tags than me so be it.

If your definition of "fair" is everyone gets an equal number of tags, then perhaps every single hunt should be once in a lifetime. Once everyone has drawn then and only then would you be eligible for a second tag. Pretty extreme and I think all would agree this method would be unacceptable.

Points systems are typically touted by people who complain they have never drawn Unit X Rifle tag even after 30 years of applying but their neighbor drew it twice. Guess what, there are 8 bazillion others who also have never drawn it. And they are going to have the exact same "advantage" as you regardless of whatever point system is instituted...thereby not really increasing your own odds at all.

Keep NM RANDOM!
 
Yes, no points here please. We all have a chance every year. Odds go way up if you study and plan.

Also have an opportunity to buy a hunt every year here for any who want to. The bottom line is more people want to hunt than tags are available. Nothing can be done about that! Small game, turkey, fish, etc and you can always stay busy.
 
Congrats to all that were successful on any units they drew out in.
Dogging someone that drew in a unit they know nothing about shows that one is Jealous because they more than likely saw RED and they want their misery to be your misery.
 
Agreed. Nothing wrong with applying in a new unit. NM system is just fine the way it is. As a former NM resident, I have faired just fine in the draw. I just don’t apply in the best units and seem to have better luck drawing that way. The opportunity to get out and explore and enjoy the outdoors is worth just as much to me as tagging out.
 
I drew in unit 17 for MB. First time putting in for it and prior to putting in for it I had never stepped foot in unit 17. I have been in unit 15 & 16 quite a bit and know them well. Anyway since my successful draw I have been in unit 17 3 time already scouting and plan to go again this weekend. I won't stop until I find my sweet spot for my attempt to harvest a bull location.
 
smarba said:
And they are going to have the exact same "advantage" as you regardless of whatever point system is instituted...thereby not really increasing your own odds at all.

Keep NM RANDOM!
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Don't think about a traditional point system. Think of it as someone who gets a few extra roles of the dice. Everything is still random but someone who can't draw a tag with 2 tags available and 3 applicants will eventually get more than one dice roll to finally draw one of those two tags.

coryb said:
Yes, no points here please. We all have a chance every year. Odds go way up if you study and plan.
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Not true. Your application has one chance at being positioned to have your studied and planned choices even matter.

UpToNoGood said:
Dogging someone that drew in a unit they know nothing about shows that one is Jealous because they more than likely saw RED and they want their misery to be your misery.
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Missing the point of the thread.
 
"Don't think about a traditional point system. Think of it as someone who gets a few extra roles of the dice. Everything is still random but someone who can't draw a tag with 2 tags available and 3 applicants will eventually get more than one dice roll to finally draw one of those two tags."

Still, my point is by someone getting more rolls their odds increase at the expense of someone else who may only get 1 roll. Yes it's random, but with more random chances one guy has better overall odds. Again, it all boils down to whether you believe someone should have better odds because they've been "unlucky" for years or if you believe that even without any tweaking to create additional rolls eventually purely random 1-roll opportunities will even out in the long run...which they will IMO.

"Odds go way up if you study and plan" True. That's why folks who pick 16A for all 3 choices generally fare poorly but others who are willing to settle for lower quality units generally fare better. In my experience the people who complain about not drawing are the ones who say things like "I just like unit X so I apply there every year". Or "Unit Y has a bunch of tags so I always apply there" never mind Unit Y also has a bazillion applicants.

Points systems are a way to appease people who are jealous that others have drawn and they haven't. Guess what, there will ALWAYS be a lot more people who don't draw tags than people who do. Just much fewer tags than demand for them. And no matter what points system there will always be complainers for a "better" way. Meaning a way "they" can draw a tag. Not necessarily "more fair".
 
smarba said:
"Don't think about a traditional point system. Think of it as someone who gets a few extra roles of the dice. Everything is still random but someone who can't draw a tag with 2 tags available and 3 applicants will eventually get more than one dice roll to finally draw one of those two tags."

Still, my point is by someone getting more rolls their odds increase at the expense of someone else who may only get 1 roll. Yes it's random, but with more random chances one guy has better overall odds. Again, it all boils down to whether you believe someone should have better odds because they've been "unlucky" for years or if you believe that even without any tweaking to create additional rolls eventually purely random 1-roll opportunities will even out in the long run...which they will IMO.

"Odds go way up if you study and plan" True. That's why folks who pick 16A for all 3 choices generally fare poorly but others who are willing to settle for lower quality units generally fare better. In my experience the people who complain about not drawing are the ones who say things like "I just like unit X so I apply there every year". Or "Unit Y has a bunch of tags so I always apply there" never mind Unit Y also has a bazillion applicants.

Points systems are a way to appease people who are jealous that others have drawn and they haven't. Guess what, there will ALWAYS be a lot more people who don't draw tags than people who do. Just much fewer tags than demand for them. And no matter what points system there will always be complainers for a "better" way. Meaning a way "they" can draw a tag. Not necessarily "more fair".
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Except the guy who only gets one roll is because he drew the year before. The guy who gets 10 rolls is because, well, he hasn't drawn for 10 years. When he draws on year 11, year 12 he onlys one roll. Your still thinking about a conventional point system. What I am talking about is no guarantee even for the guy with 10 rolls over the guy with only one because his 10 rolls may give him the last ten spots. This is why a guy in a certain state can draw a random tag in a unit with zero points against a guy with 20.

Still not true on increasing your odds. Your app still only has one shot at being high enough in the pecking order to even have your choices looked at. If all three choices are made up of hunt codes that have 30% of the tags going to 3rd choice applicants and your application is the last one in the stack, so much for planning and studying. If it is the 2nd one looked at, then all three choices might as well be 16A.

Jealousy has nothing to do with it. Until someone goes several years without drawing any tag, they won't understand. Especially when your neighbor draws the same types of hunts every year that you apply for as well.
 
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Not a fan of one weapon, but wouldn't mind looking at all 1st choices before looking at 2nd. Other than that leave it alone, or just leave it alone completely. Yes odds go up if you study and plan and willing to go on 3rd choice.
 
I’d just like to see mandatory hunter education just like AZ and CO. I feel it’s a little to easy put every one of your tio’s and tia’s in for random great hunts and don’t even hunt. I know the whole state isn’t like this and not all people are this way but there is a damn fair share of this. At least ask people make some what of an effort to be responsible hunters and take the time to learn and pass HS. Will not likely happen but I I can’t see why some states require for all and no HS for the others. I know it’s luck in the but there are fair amount of tags wasted yearly. Maybe this helps across the board.
 
live4muleys said:
Not a fan of one weapon, but wouldn't mind looking at all 1st choices before looking at 2nd. Other than that leave it alone, or just leave it alone completely. Yes odds go up if you study and plan and willing to go on 3rd choice.
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When something is completely random one time, odds cannot be calculated.

When 3 choices are looked at before the next group of choices, odds cannot be calculated.

When somebody's 3rd choice is your 1st choice and their app is pulled before yours, odds cannot be calculated.

When choices are mixed by unit and weapon that change annually, odds cannot be calculated.

All things being equal, and assuming your app is pulled soon enough against the combination of all choices for a hunt code, odds can be "pseudo-calculated" to make people believe they go up when plain dumb luck allows them pull a 3rd choice every year.

Your choices can be made up entirely of "high odds" 3rd choices and you still strike out every year because your app is randomly selected and placed toward the bottom of the stack against all apps and not just the species applied for.

Odds really can't be calculated.
 
And I know two guys on the same app that drew the 2nd archery VV as their second choice and I drew it as my first but yet to draw a 6C archery tag as my 3rd choice but the odds say I should.

Simple breakdown of odds:

230,000 applications. 30,000 elk licenses available. You have a 13% chance your app will be looked at to even be in the running.

80,000 elk applications. 30,000 licenses available. You have a 38% chance of having your app looked at before all the hunts are filled up.

30,000 elk licenses available, so 30,000 applications will fill them all with 3 choices each totaling a "new" application number of 90,000 (each choice acts as it's own application against yours, and yours acts as 3 against the next guys). Hunt code E-2-XYZ has a total 250 tags available with 500 first choice, 760 second choice, and 802 third choice for a total of 2,062 place holders for those 250 tags. You have a 12% of drawing that hunt if you're one of the 38% above. True odds are now 5% chance of drawing hunt code E-2-XYZ (even worse if you go the 30% route). This hunt code has 25% of the tags go to 3rd choice. Final odds are less than 2% your going to win that hunt as a 3rd choice against all the other 230,000 applicants but only if your one of the first 13%.

I want someone to change my clueless way of thinking so I at least feel better about still having a chance. Not having to compete against someone's Barb application (or the guy that threw it in as a third choice and go buy a bow if he draws) for one of those coveted E-2-XYZ third choice tags would be awesome.
 
Agree with WapitiBob that points do make sense for NR. Because they can begin to plan "when" they may draw, and the years they don't have any chance of drawing who cares, they don't live in NM. But for Residents I don't like Points.

Also the comment about making Hunter's Ed mandatory is something I hadn't thought about before and may have merit. I agree there are A LOT of people who toss their relatives into the draw, or toss their friends (so they can help) when either those people really aren't hunters, or in many cases those people won't even make it into the field and the tags will be used by the person who convinced them to apply. At least by making HE mandatory those relatives wouldn't be in the pool and on another front the anti-hunters who apply for tags to eliminate someone from hunting wouldn't be in the pool. Unless they go through the hassle of taking HE, which most won't. This may be a pitch we could all get behind which should increase odds a bit.
 
We're going to have to agree to disagree.

"Don't think about a traditional point system. Think of it as someone who gets a few extra roles of the dice. Everything is still random but someone who can't draw a tag with 2 tags available and 3 applicants will eventually get more than one dice roll to finally draw one of those two tags."

By my definition, if someone gets 10 random rolls to try and get a low number, their odds of doing so go up vs. someone who only gets 1 roll. Can the 1-roller do it? Sure sometimes, but based on statistical odds, no. So someone's odds have gone up compared to another.

And the problem is due to supply and demand it doesn't take long before there are A LOT of 10-rollers. Which means all the 10-rollers are in the same boat as a ton of people, so their odds really haven't changed or increased. But the odds of the 1-roller are worse in comparison.

If you think that's "more fair" or "more better" so be it. I don't.

On one end of the spectrum is 1 roll, totally random as we have now. On the other extreme is every single tag once in a lifetime until everyone who wants a tag has drawn and then at that point (which of course will never happen) everyone who's still around can enter and start all over again. Any type of point system is some manner or another of manipulating odds and falls somewhere in the middle, perhaps closer to one end or the other.

I personally like totally random, no points, as we have now.

I'd not be averse to "all same weapon" choice as we used to do, nor would I be averse to looking at all 1st choices, then all 2nd choices, then all 3rd choice, also as we used to do. However, either of these methods allow someone who's savvy to do some cyphering and figure out ways to increase their odds...thereby drawing tags more often...thereby making others complain that someone draws more often than them...thereby requesting some sort of points system, which is why those methods went away in the first place.
 
smarba said:
I'd not be averse to "all same weapon" choice as we used to do, nor would I be averse to looking at all 1st choices, then all 2nd choices, then all 3rd choice, also as we used to do. However, either of these methods allow someone who's savvy to do some cyphering and figure out ways to increase their odds...thereby drawing tags more often...thereby making others complain that someone draws more often than them...thereby requesting some sort of points system, which is why those methods went away in the first place.
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You are correct. The two scenarios listed above do provide merit to looking at choice selection relative to the distribution of a hunt against the choice orders it has because you are only competing with like variables. Order of choice selection is irrelevant when stacked up agianst everything and everyone else.

smarba said:
By my definition, if someone gets 10 random rolls to try and get a low number, their odds of doing so go up vs. someone who only gets 1 roll. Can the 1-roller do it? Sure sometimes, but based on statistical odds, no. So someone's odds have gone up compared to another.

And the problem is due to supply and demand it doesn't take long before there are A LOT of 10-rollers. Which means all the 10-rollers are in the same boat as a ton of people, so their odds really haven't changed or increased. But the odds of the 1-roller are worse in comparison.
Click to expand...

When things are kept random, the ranks of the 1-rollers increases by the same number of total tags available for that species each year. The X-roller number for each number class does not increase by the same rate each year because some of them will be added to the new class of 1-rollers for the following year.

The only thing more rolls of the die will do is give you the opportunity to use the best number based on how many rolls you get to do instead of using the only number you get from one roll.

230,000 applications. You get 5 random numbers assigned and the best one is used for the draw. You get 5 random's because you haven't drawn a tag for 5 years.

Your numbers are 185,274, 25,901, 191,347, 83,481, and 403. 403 is used in the sequence. You will likely draw because there are not 402 same species apps ahead of yours and with the same hunt choices. Next year you only get one roll and it may be 230,000 or 10.

With one random number of 162,825 you likely and most definitely will strike out regardless of how well you plan and study. Now repeat that same outcome for 10, 12, or 15 years while someone you know is drawing a tag every year, and most often than not, the same hunt code as one of yours. No amount of ciphering will help.

Most of the people that like the system as is is because they are one of the consistent lucky ones and don't like the idea of someone having an advantage after many years of a draw drought...

The more apps increased each year because there is no penalty for not applying, the worse it will get. Because the system is the "best" and everyone is even every year.

A fix since nobody likes someone to have an advantage is to require hunter's safety regardless of age. The best fix is to run the draws by species and weapon choice.
 
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I totally understand your scenario and preference RR. I still don't want to see that system implemented. Because you've lost at blackjack 50 times in Vegas does the dealer slide you an extra ace? No. Because that's giving you an unfair advantage.

I personally don't see a need to give someone an advantage if they haven't drawn for 5 years. You do. So be it.

And regarding no penalty for not applying one year then jumping in the next etc., Every system that utilizes some sort of points implements some form of $$ (which invariably goes up every few years) to keep you vested in playing the game. If I don't make an annual donation of $ to state X this year, I'll fall behind everyone else so I have to play. Even if I don't have the time or desire to hunt state X this particular year for whatever reason. Again, perhaps you like that type of system. I don't.

With total random (like we have, not semi-random getting multiple rolls of the dice if you've been unlucky) in the long run everything evens out. So why artificially try to make things "more" even? We all get strings of drought years. But we also get strings of boom years too.
 
smarba - you keep playing blackjack because you're addicted to gambling. If not, you lose too many times, you quit playing.

Complete random draw is fine. The way NM conducts it is idiotic. And, since NM is a status quo state, they'll keep doing it this way so you have nothing to worry about, even when there are 300,000 applications next year and 350,000 the year after that...
 
wildfin said:
based on the math it seems to me that no point system such as nm with as many as 60k new apps. your odd get worse , wear as most other states with pts my odds got better. If this is the new trend than nm may get as tough to draw an elk tag as a sheep tag. I have been applying in nm for 24 years and drew muzzy 34 nearly 20 years ago and a late 2b deer maybe 10 years ago and this year I got a first muzzy unit 13 so that seems like real bad odds and they are getting worse. I am a nonres. I dont really care if nm starts selling pt but I will be buying,
Click to expand...

Your math is bad if you think a point system improves your odds of drawing future tags. It is really simple math, point systems encourage more applicants to apply every year. Your odds decreases when more applicants apply each year for the same number of tags. The only advantage to point systems for hunters is that it makes it more predictable when you will draw a particular tag. Point systems are great for states because they generate significant $$. I hope NM and Idaho never go to a point system. The moose, goat and sheep odds will become much worse in Idaho if they switched to a point system.

I've been working on educating hunters about how bad point systems really are for hunters for years. I've been able to convince many friends and family over the years because the math isn't complicated and point creep in states like Colorado are real. I still apply in AZ, UT, NM, CO, WY, MT and NV even though they have a point systems. If you want a chance to hunt a state you have to play the game they designed. I would gladly give up all the points I've paid thousands of dollars to accumulate to go to a random draw tomorrow.

More people applied in Western states in 2021 than previous years for 3 reasons.

#1 COVID - as already pointed out, more people are hiking, mountain biking, camping, fishing and hunting on the public lands than previous years

#2 The economy has allowed more people to feel like they have more time and $$ for recreational activities like hunting than some of the years in the past.

#3 Social media has allowed more people from the midwest and east as well as new residents to western states learn about the amazing hunting opportunities that many of us already knew about.
 
Besides the outfitter welfare of 10%, I'm happy with the way NM draw is currently set up. You can put out ideas to increase your odds, but when you increase your odds, you are going to have to decrease someone else odds. Odds will continue to decrease as more people realize the opportunities to hunt in Western States that many of us already know about.

The odds of drawing a Western state tag in 2021 are not as good as they were in 2000. The opportunity to hunt western states was considerably better in 1980 than it was in 2000. Hunting Desert and Rocky Mountain sheep was a very realistic opportunity for those who really wanted to do it. I've been trying to get a sheep tag for 20 years from now and unless I get lucky or pay the $$$, I may never get to hunt sheep in my lifetime.

In 2040, we will probably all look back and wish we had as good of opportunities at tags as we did in 2021 will will think these were the "good old days". Just 15 years ago there was some great mule deer opportunities in Colorado with little or no points. Many of us mule deer hunters wish we could go back and hunt in 1960.
 
smarba said:
Agree with WapitiBob that points do make sense for NR. Because they can begin to plan "when" they may draw, and the years they don't have any chance of drawing who cares, they don't live in NM. But for Residents I don't like Points.
Click to expand...
I'm a nonresident of NM and don't want to see a point system. I believe having a point system in NM would decrease the number of tags I get in NM over the next 20 years. Sure I could have 20 elk point in 20 years and have better odds at finally getting a gila elk tag but that would mean someone else would have decreased odds. All the new to NM nonresidents would have terrible odds.
 
All the ideas about mandatory hunter education, selecting one weapon only or just one choice instead of 3 choices wouldn't make a significant difference. A few years ago people were saying buying a mandatory hunting license and increasing the application fees would help improve odds. We all know how well that turned out.
The only thing that will improve odds in NM is the economy going south. The odds may not improve but they won't get as bad as quick if the economy becomes bad again.
 
Nice analogy. Blackjack is my table game of choice. When I play perfectly I loose just a little bit but still drink for free and it's kind of fun. I call that even-steven. When I play like I failed high school math and depend on my emotions ("maybe I get lucky this time" or "That ace-o-spades is MINE") I lose. Every time.

I'm pretty happy with the 6 hunting licenses that that my son and I have drawn over the past 3 years. It's pretty much the number of tags I'd expect considering the choices that I make.

The way New Mexico runs the draw works for me. I don't like the requirement to buy a general hunting license to enter the draw, that just seems like another tax. Although I like @WapatiBob's point of "knowing", I don't like preference points because of point creep. I saw an intelligent evaluation of point creep in the applications and draws for a few Colorado elk units. That study concluded that the currently most efficient use of points was 4 at a time but the number was increasing and 4 points still only resulted in tags for mediocre units. That frequency can be described as a 25% draw rate and yea mediocre units. At least in New Mexico there is a real chance to draw those top-tier hunts for hunters under the age of 90.

Last time I checked, putting harvest rates and draw rates together indicated that bow hunters brought home steaks about the same rate as rifle hunters, and that seems appropriate to me. If it really was only about getting out in the woods, we wouldn't be paying for licenses, right? And forcing hunters into pigeon holes is a technique out of Saul Alinsky playbook. Hunters have enough enemies outside the camp, we shouldn't make more inside our own family.
 
BrianID said:
Your math is bad if you think a point system improves your odds of drawing future tags. It is really simple math, point systems encourage more applicants to apply every year. Your odds decreases when more applicants apply each year for the same number of tags.
Click to expand...

NM has no point system, applications go up every year, odds decrease as a result.

BrianID said:
point creep in states like Colorado are real.
Click to expand...

Therein lies the problem. CO's system is screwed up and people refer to it as the point model.

Reuben_Soady said:
I'm pretty happy with the 6 hunting licenses that that my son and I have drawn over the past 3 years. It's pretty much the number of tags I'd expect considering the choices that I make.

The way New Mexico runs the draw works for me.
Click to expand...

Me and mine are just the opposite. 3 years and zero tags, 4 now for me. We don't apply for really difficult hunts either. Our neighbors do and they pull the tags every year.

We just suck at Blackjack I guess.
 
roadrunner said:
NM has no point system, applications go up every year, odds decrease as a result.
Click to expand...

My argument is that if NM were to implement a point system there would be more applications each year. There are many hunters that occasionally apply in NM but with a point systems they would apply every year to get a point. I have several friends like this. It really isn't complicated math, the more applicants that apply in a given year, the less likely I am to draw a tag.

Regardless of NM changing their draw process, it will continue to become more difficult to draw a tag in NM in future years. A point system would just make it less likely to draw a tag for a guy like me that faithfully applies every year. After 20 years my odds would improve but that would be at the expense of new hunters which I think is wrong.
 
Agree with you BrianID. Points schemes are designed to encourage people to keep applying every year to avoid getting left behind. So points encourage even more applications.

HOPEFULLY many of the covid enthusiasts who applied will either a) not apply in the future because they didn't draw or b) don't know how to hunt in the first place and aren't spoon-fed a honey-hole by numerous blabbermouths so they give up and don't apply in the future, thereby odds get somewhat back to normal. I know, wishful thinking...
 
smarba said:
Agree with you BrianID. Points schemes are designed to encourage people to keep applying every year to avoid getting left behind. So points encourage even more applications.

HOPEFULLY many of the covid enthusiasts who applied will either a) not apply in the future because they didn't draw or b) don't know how to hunt in the first place and aren't spoon-fed a honey-hole by numerous blabbermouths so they give up and don't apply in the future, thereby odds get somewhat back to normal. I know, wishful thinking...
Click to expand...

75BD76CF-D8E4-4701-A4C2-12C5C680868B.gif
 
BrianID said:
the more applicants that apply in a given year, the less likely I am to draw a tag.
Click to expand...

Which is what we are seeing anyway. Equal chance your first year against a guy putting in for 20 years, what do you have to lose? Nothing, but you can gain everything.

BrianID said:
Regardless of NM changing their draw process, it will continue to become more difficult to draw a tag in NM in future years. A point system would just make it less likely to draw a tag for a guy like me that faithfully applies every year.
Click to expand...

Because people that have never applied before can draw the first time they try. There is no deterrent knowing they don't have a chance as a first timer.

The problem with point systems is that they are done wrong. My chances in UT with the random tags and point system is much higher than most anything in NM...
 
I read an article about unit 201 in CO. The kids in the town near there will draw an elk tag in their eighties.
 
roadrunner said:
The problem with point systems is that they are done wrong.
Click to expand...

People have argued the same thing about Socialism. They say we just haven't tried the right type of socialism yet. Point systems are like socialism. They seem to work for the first few years but you have to look at the long term consequences to realize they are a bad idea.

I've been playing the point game in multiple Western states for 20 years now. This year I'm applying in AZ, NM, CO, ID, UT, NV, WY, TX and Montana. I may add Nebraska this year as well. I prefer the random system in ID and NM and hope they never add a point system. There has been some push to add a point system in Idaho but fortunately many of the residents of Idaho have figured out they are a bad idea.

You have every right to believe point systems are a good idea for you but you aren't going to convince me they are good for me.
 
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Lots of options as far as draws. I put in for 2nd choice tags and save a year or ten for good ones in Colorado. I wouldn't even put in for 201 if it was random because the odds are against ever drawing even if it was a .ooo1 percent every year. Doesn't matter how if it's random or preference, still the same amount of tags. I have my colorado hunts planned for years out if nothing changes. And I really like Wyomings system also. My Wyoming hunts are as planned as colorado with a little extra excitement. I put in for a cow hunt in my unit I was all excited about in Wyoming, hunted it and wasn't as excited about it anymore so I know I have a few more years to keep looking. I do the same in Colorado. And I mix in a few random draws also. I like the different states, different systems.
 
BrianID said:
People have argued the same thing about Socialism. They say we just haven't tried the right type of socialism yet. Point systems are like socialism. They seem to work for the first few years but you have to look at the long term consequences to realize they are a bad idea.

I've been playing the point game in multiple Western states for 20 years now. This year I'm applying in AZ, NM, CO, ID, UT, NV, WY, TX and Montana. I may add Nebraska this year as well. I prefer the random system in ID and NM and hope they never add a point system. There has been some push to add a point system in Idaho but fortunately many of the residents of Idaho have figured out they are a bad idea.

You have every right to believe point systems are a good idea for you but you aren't going to convince me they are good for me.
Click to expand...
You do realize that a random draw is just another form of "socialism" don't you? The illusion of the random draw is the equal chance every year but when there is a surge in applications (like this year), those chances reduce significantly individually.

What messes up things with point systems are pool jumpers. But then so do people who suddenly decide to apply to a state that is 100% random that never have before decreasing your chances even further and there is nothing you can do about it except feel better about yourself because they had the same chance as you.

I'm indifferent either way. Can't draw a tag no matter what. Studying and planning is irrelevant when everything hinges on one roll of the dice...
 
In every western state (including those with point systems) we have seen a significant increase in applicants. NM didn't see a significant increase in applicants over AZ because NM doesn't have a point system. COVID, the stimulus money and social media are all to blame for the increase in applicants.

My argument still is, point systems will increase the number of applicants that apply every year which then decreases the odds of each individual. For example, if NM implemented a point system in 2022 we would see a significant increase in applicants in 2022 because everyone would want to get in on the "ground floor". Every year after that, everyone would continue to apply because they wouldn't want to get behind in the point game. It would then become very difficult to ever draw a gila elk tag unless you were in the max point pool. Even 20 years later we would still see guys with max points that haven't drawn. Just look at the point creep Colorado has seen over the last 20 years.

Point systems work ok for easy to draw tags were there are enough tags for at least 20% of the applicants. When there are only enough tags for 5% of the applicants or less, then flaws in point systems become very obvious.
 
Roadrunner,

You are 100% (sticking with the odds theme) wrong that studying and planning are irrelevant. You can draw far more by understanding the system and using it to your advantage.

I'll offer a simple breakdown that will increase your odds more than any point system here could. All you need to look at is total apps in your category (res, nonres, or outfitted) for a specific hunt code vs total tags in the same category. Disregard who drew as first choice, second, etc...

If there are 100 tags and 1000 applicants in your group you have ROUGHLY a 10% chance of drawing. I understand that doesn't mean 10% exactly as more or less could apply next year or you could have simple bad luck, but exactly 10% of hunters who applied last year drew and exactly 90% didn't. You would have a better chance of drawing this than a hunt with 100 tags and 10,000 applicants. It's simple....

When the draw is run and you are assigned a random number, you have a 10% chance that the number is low enough for one of those tags to be available. (Again, this is a rough understanding of the odds in this hunt code, not a guarantee). Please look at this simply. I know that there are other species, etc adding numbers to the game but they are irrelevant to the hunt code in question. It is solely determined by the applicants and tags for it alone.

Here is a real world example: My young son and nephews just passed hunters ed this year (I know, they added 10+ apps to the increase between them and you suffered because of it) and I wanted to make sure they had a chance to hunt. I found a hunt code that for the last several years has had 15 tags and only 18 applicants. I also have several friends that have been hunting it with their kids for years and have had high success rates so I have info to make it a good hunt. Based on these numbers I KNEW they had roughly an 83% chance of drawing it REGARDLESS OF WHAT NUMBER THEIR APPLICATION WAS ASSIGNED IN THE DRAW!!!!!! Sure enough, they all three drew it, even though they were on separate applications. Roadrunner, any claim that this result was strictly random would be foolish at best. Studying and planning resulted in them drawing. PERIOD!!!!

Instead of spending the time to write dozens of posts on a topic you are "indifferent" towards, you could have used that time studying odds and planning to draw. You can disbelieve all you want and continue to miss opportunities to hunt. Sure, you will get lucky some times and get great or OK tags. But those of us who choose to understand the system continue to benefit. Many of us also help others benefit from understanding the system. I know hunters who love to hunt and spend far too many seasons on the sidelines simply because they are unwilling to do the leg work.

NM has the best system. You can find a way to draw if you want. You can buy a tag as a backup. Birds and fish always available. If we could just get rid of the gangsters and criminals this state would be just about perfect....
 
smarba said:
Agree with WapitiBob that points do make sense for NR. Because they can begin to plan "when" they may draw, and the years they don't have any chance of drawing who cares, they don't live in NM. But for Residents I don't like Points.

Also the comment about making Hunter's Ed mandatory is something I hadn't thought about before and may have merit. I agree there are A LOT of people who toss their relatives into the draw, or toss their friends (so they can help) when either those people really aren't hunters, or in many cases those people won't even make it into the field and the tags will be used by the person who convinced them to apply. At least by making HE mandatory those relatives wouldn't be in the pool and on another front the anti-hunters who apply for tags to eliminate someone from hunting wouldn't be in the pool. Unless they go through the hassle of taking HE, which most won't. This may be a pitch we could all get behind which should increase odds a bit.
Click to expand...
In your reference to mandatory hunters safety, I would have to agree. There are a lot of trigger happy idiots in this state shooting at anything that moves. I am not for over restrictions but hunters safety is a good thing.
 
That
coryb said:
Roadrunner,

You are 100% (sticking with the odds theme) wrong that studying and planning are irrelevant. You can draw far more by understanding the system and using it to your advantage.

I'll offer a simple breakdown that will increase your odds more than any point system here could. All you need to look at is total apps in your category (res, nonres, or outfitted) for a specific hunt code vs total tags in the same category. Disregard who drew as first choice, second, etc...

If there are 100 tags and 1000 applicants in your group you have ROUGHLY a 10% chance of drawing. I understand that doesn't mean 10% exactly as more or less could apply next year or you could have simple bad luck, but exactly 10% of hunters who applied last year drew and exactly 90% didn't. You would have a better chance of drawing this than a hunt with 100 tags and 10,000 applicants. It's simple....

When the draw is run and you are assigned a random number, you have a 10% chance that the number is low enough for one of those tags to be available. (Again, this is a rough understanding of the odds in this hunt code, not a guarantee). Please look at this simply. I know that there are other species, etc adding numbers to the game but they are irrelevant to the hunt code in question. It is solely determined by the applicants and tags for it alone.

Here is a real world example: My young son and nephews just passed hunters ed this year (I know, they added 10+ apps to the increase between them and you suffered because of it) and I wanted to make sure they had a chance to hunt. I found a hunt code that for the last several years has had 15 tags and only 18 applicants. I also have several friends that have been hunting it with their kids for years and have had high success rates so I have info to make it a good hunt. Based on these numbers I KNEW they had roughly an 83% chance of drawing it REGARDLESS OF WHAT NUMBER THEIR APPLICATION WAS ASSIGNED IN THE DRAW!!!!!! Sure enough, they all three drew it, even though they were on separate applications. Roadrunner, any claim that this result was strictly random would be foolish at best. Studying and planning resulted in them drawing. PERIOD!!!!

Instead of spending the time to write dozens of posts on a topic you are "indifferent" towards, you could have used that time studying odds and planning to draw. You can disbelieve all you want and continue to miss opportunities to hunt. Sure, you will get lucky some times and get great or OK tags. But those of us who choose to understand the system continue to benefit. Many of us also help others benefit from understanding the system. I know hunters who love to hunt and spend far too many seasons on the sidelines simply because they are unwilling to do the leg work.

NM has the best system. You can find a way to draw if you want. You can buy a tag as a backup. Birds and fish always available. If we could just get rid of the gangsters and criminals this state would be just about perfect....
Click to expand...
That was a very interesting read thank you coryb.
 
Looks like I will definitely need to do some scouting for deer this year. Drew a hunt that I put in for knowing I would not draw it and ended up drawing the damn thing. New Mexico rifle hunt unit 5B the high quality high demand hunt. I could probably put in for that damn hunt for the rest of my life and never draw it. LOL. I hear that is one of the best hunts and places to hunt deer in New Mexico.
 
Lobo Crusader said:
Looks like I will definitely need to do some scouting for deer this year. Drew a hunt that I put in for knowing I would not draw it and ended up drawing the damn thing. New Mexico rifle hunt unit 5B the high quality high demand hunt. I could probably put in for that damn hunt for the rest of my life and never draw it. LOL. I hear that is one of the best hunts and places to hunt deer in New Mexico.
Click to expand...
Haha.
 
I am also a fan of the NM no points system. I do think the outfitter welfare pool should be the lesser percentage though. Give NR the 10% and the outfitters the 6%.
As far as applications I sure hope there are no more “stimulus” checks and I bet there are less applications then.
 
coryb said:
I'll offer a simple breakdown that will increase your odds more than any point system here could. All you need to look at is total apps in your category (res, nonres, or outfitted) for a specific hunt code vs total tags in the same category.
Click to expand...

1) No you can't look at the total tags available for a hunt code. You can only rely on what is available to you as a resident and non-outfitter pool as all the tags are not available to you but those additional applications are still stacked against you. You can only use the remaining 84% of the available tags in your scenario.

coryb said:
Disregard who drew as first choice, second, etc...

If there are 100 tags and 1000 applicants in your group you have ROUGHLY a 10% chance of drawing. I understand that doesn't mean 10% exactly as more or less could apply next year or you could have simple bad luck, but exactly 10% of hunters who applied last year drew and exactly 90% didn't. You would have a better chance of drawing this than a hunt with 100 tags and 10,000 applicants. It's simple....
Click to expand...

2) You cannot disregard 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices as each of those are a place holder against you. It's really no different than
an application only getting one choice and each of those placeholder choices being one of those "one choice applications".

3) Your example above acts as 3000 "applicants" because the other two choices are always ahead of yours, so your odds are really 3.3% you are likely to pull that tag. Your example is really (assuming you're even in the running) that you have a 10% chance your app is looked in that hunt code pool before the tags are all assigned. You would be correct if they only looked at the 1st choice for everyone before moving on to the other two choices. The odds your talking about are that everyone in that hunt code gets one chance to pull 1 of 100 green marbles out of a bag of 1000, 800 being red marbles. The way it really works is there are 3000 people being allowed to try and pull 1 of those marbles out of a bag full of 1000, 100 of them are green and 800 are red. When all the green marbles are chosen and you're not one of them, you spend time studying and planning for next year because your strategy failed because all of your hunt code choices repeated this process.

coryb said:
Here is a real world example: My young son and nephews just passed hunters ed this year (I know, they added 10+ apps to the increase between them and you suffered because of it) and I wanted to make sure they had a chance to hunt. I found a hunt code that for the last several years has had 15 tags and only 18 applicants. I also have several friends that have been hunting it with their kids for years and have had high success rates so I have info to make it a good hunt. Based on these numbers I KNEW they had roughly an 83% chance of drawing it REGARDLESS OF WHAT NUMBER THEIR APPLICATION WAS ASSIGNED IN THE DRAW!!!!!! Sure enough, they all three drew it, even though they were on separate applications. Roadrunner, any claim that this result was strictly random would be foolish at best. Studying and planning resulted in them drawing. PERIOD!!!
Click to expand...

4) Inductive reasoning, while in this case panned out, isn't necessarily repeatable because now myself and several other lurkers know your "secret" and will apply this way next year decreasing your chances of drawing this tag again. Others will listen to Pod Casts and learn this secret as well, or watch NMDGF's video presentation on how to increase "odds". Pool hopping is why you cannot rely on anecdotal evidence. PERIOD!!! So, what happens for the next 5 years that your son is now one of the remaining "3 applicants" that doesn't get to even have the chance to pull a marble from the bag...?

coryb said:
Instead of spending the time to write dozens of posts on a topic you are "indifferent" towards, you could have used that time studying odds and planning to draw. You can disbelieve all you want and continue to miss opportunities to hunt. Sure, you will get lucky some times and get great or OK tags. But those of us who choose to understand the system continue to benefit. Many of us also help others benefit from understanding the system. I know hunters who love to hunt and spend far too many seasons on the sidelines simply because they are unwilling to do the leg work.
Click to expand...

Well it's a good thing the draw is over and the time you say I've "wasted" writing dozens of posts on a topic I'm indifferent about has only taken less than 30 days, and I still have until March 5 of 2022 to study odds that are not true odds to begin with because everything still hinges on that one roll of the dice against the other complete and total number of applications.

I have "studied and planned" and have put in for those hunt codes where tags go to a few number of applicants, and some that are spread nearly evenly across 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices to no avail. Consistent bad luck is why my anecdotal evidence tells me studying and planning is irrelevant. When your sample size is large enough, as in your case, favorable "odds" are usually in your favor.

Plain dumb luck of getting the right draw sequence number is what NM's draw system is all about. That's why some people, year after year, pull good tags which refutes your entire post that rails against mine. My point, obviously not stated clearly, is that the odds of NM's draw system are not what you think they are.

If they did not stack you up against everyone's application at the start, I would agree they have the best draw system.
 

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