Some advice to any and all posting for help in units they drew and never been in.....

[JB1975]

I don't look at any stats and draw a tag as a NR for something in NM almost every year and several times multiple tags in same year. I just don't put in for the popular units. Seems to work fine.

 

[roadrunner]

In every western state (including those with point systems) we have seen a significant increase in applicants. NM didn't see a significant increase in applicants over AZ because NM doesn't have a point system. COVID, the stimulus money and social media are all to blame for the increase in applicants.

My argument still is, point systems will increase the number of applicants that apply every year which then decreases the odds of each individual. For example, if NM implemented a point system in 2022 we would see a significant increase in applicants in 2022 because everyone would want to get in on the "ground floor". Every year after that, everyone would continue to apply because they wouldn't want to get behind in the point game. It would then become very difficult to ever draw a gila elk tag unless you were in the max point pool. Even 20 years later we would still see guys with max points that haven't drawn. Just look at the point creep Colorado has seen over the last 20 years.

Point systems work ok for easy to draw tags were there are enough tags for at least 20% of the applicants. When there are only enough tags for 5% of the applicants or less, then flaws in point systems become very obvious.

Yeah, people learning more and more about no point system continues to add to the applicant pool. NM's applicant numbers were rising every year for the past few years pre-COVID and stimulus money and will continue to do so. You can thank whatever hunt celebrity or "public figure" for that.

Point systems for those really late in the game that hear about the dreaded "point creep" don't just suddenly jump in.

I agree, conventional point systems where max point holders automatically get a tag do not work anymore. Max point holders who still cannot draw the tag against other max point holders is because there is still some randomness to it and pool jumpers mess that up for the ones that consistently apply for that hunt after all the "studying and planning" they do, convincing themselves they can draw the tag before they take up the rocker.

There are guys out there that have applied for a Gila type tag for 20 years and yet to draw it. But, it makes them sleep at night knowing they have the same chance every year...

 

[Reuben_Soady]

@RR... I am confident that an infinitesimally small number of applicants use the same hunt code for all three choices. So, no...you shouldn't count all applicants three times and the 10% in CoryB's example stands.

If you insist on approaching this as a silly math problem rather than a practical statistics puzzle, and want to keep track of multiple (only 3?) choices, you have to multiply your estimate of 3-1/3% chance by my three choices and then you get back to 10% again. You should also remove drawn tags and successful applicants from the calculation and run multiple iterations of odds calculation, keep track of all the other hunts codes at the same time, AND do the calculations to estimate your chances of not drawing (unsuccessful is the null hypothesis), after which you back out the odds of drawing (being successful). Or run a Monte Carlo simulation of your choices, the drawback being that you can only set up the simulation with historical data.

I am reminded of the museum docent who says "This dinosaur (waves his hands towards the T-Rex) roamed the earth one million and nine years ago." Management told him it lived a million years ago when he started the job...nine years ago...and he did some really complicated math since then. Keeping track of significant digits really does matter.

If anyone reading this is trying to figure out draw odds. @coryb's process is quite functional. It will get you to within a few tenths of a percent of the actual historical odds. We don't need to worry about those few tenths because the actual distribution of applications changes more than that each year and current (future really) odds cannot be measured. And, there are other factors that should affect the choice besides draw odds.

It's amazing how lucky people are when they think or work hard (2500+ posts seems hard working). On the other hand folks with a disposition towards arguing or complaining always seem to be unlucky.

I see no need to fiddle with an impartial system to improve the chances of those who think they are unlucky. .

 

[TerynItUp]

Fishing sure sounds nice right about now.

 

[ktg]

If the average guy (me) wants to hunt trophy units out of state, scouting before drawing the tag is about impossible. I've gotten help on several hunts in units I've never seen before and if someone asks about a unit I know (except general season, haha) , I'm happy to help others when I can.

 

[NMhunter4life]

With the rise in popularity in Western hunting I am convinced that if I would like to continue to hunt frequently in the future I am going to have to work hard and just pay the money for landowner tags. By the time you apply in multiple states, accumulate preference points and then eventually draw a tag you are going to have payed in quite a chunk of change and by that point I will be an old man and not able to hunt as hard.

With that being said, leave New Mexico's system alone. Straight up luck of the draw is the best system. Preference points are a scam and I agreed with BrianID, they encourage more and more people to keep applying every year.

 

[ktg]

With the rise in popularity in Western hunting I am convinced that if I would like to continue to hunt frequently in the future I am going to have to work hard and just pay the money for landowner tags. By the time you apply in multiple states, accumulate preference points and then eventually draw a tag you are going to have payed in quite a chunk of change and by that point I will be an old man and not able to hunt as hard.

With that being said, leave New Mexico's system alone. Straight up luck of the draw is the best system. Preference points are a scam and I agreed with BrianID, they encourage more and more people to keep applying every year.

When I finally draw Nevada and Arizona, I'm done with them. By the time you calculate how much it has cost to get 20 points, then the cost of the tag, that's a big chunk of change that could be used to buy a tag. Of course the cost to buy the best tags is still a LOT more than that.

 

[Ropinfool]

hire a guide

 

[STOMPER]

and then theres people like me. I helped iowan get his son a big gila bull over 10 years ago for free. I've helped tons of hunters for free.

If anyone needs help my message box is there. I've guided and hunted most every popular unit in NM. Killed over 20 bulls with my own tags and lord knows how many deer. killed a lot of antelope, a few ibex, tons of oryx and don't ask me how many times I've been to africa since I have no idea. Point is, I do have a little experience and am willing to help most anyone.

I moved out of the state two years back but I still know where the animals are.

I hunt other states in areas I don't know and I appreciate the help in turn.

I have to side with paul and founder on this one.

 

[joesikora]

I posted this in another spot but
I got to give some info to a fellow MM‘er the other day about Unit 49 and it felt great to finally have some advice on a big game unit.
after all the love and support I’ve been given it feels great to return some love to others
New Mexico Hunters are some wonderful people.

I do understand when people who never chime in on a site but their your best buds when they draw the Permo Tag and the worst is some of these guys are arrogant idiots Hurray For Me And Screw You!
Those are the type guys you need to do what the boys up in Hardin did when they seen guys setting stands on the Island where I was the only one deer hunting the locals didn’t hunt Diamond Island because I was hunting it they huntEd Hurricane Island just because I was hunting it. Those guys were just meat hunting and they knew I was too but there was a good one over on Diamond. Trust me there’s 420 acres on Diamond there’s plenty of room but one of the local boys said they set three stands within a couple hundred yards from my mine and one knuckle head went into the bedding area were no one ever goes and set his stand!! So they moved their pink tape that went in circles) re-route them in the wrong direction. Then the outsiders went into the local bar and restaurant and was saying their going to whip somebody’s butt if they do that again. Well guess who was in bar the guys that did it so later that evening they took down their stands and through them in the IL River. Now the only reason they accepted me was one of the elders and go to guy did all my siding soffit work as a Sub Contractor and we just hit it off.
Remember boys and girls

Don’t mess with the small town folk!
They‘ll show you who’s who! LOL!

 

[RioHuntNutt]

1) No you can't look at the total tags available for a hunt code. You can only rely on what is available to you as a resident and non-outfitter pool as all the tags are not available to you but those additional applications are still stacked against you. You can only use the remaining 84% of the available tags in your scenario.



2) You cannot disregard 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices as each of those are a place holder against you. It's really no different than
an application only getting one choice and each of those placeholder choices being one of those "one choice applications".

3) Your example above acts as 3000 "applicants" because the other two choices are always ahead of yours, so your odds are really 3.3% you are likely to pull that tag. Your example is really (assuming you're even in the running) that you have a 10% chance your app is looked in that hunt code pool before the tags are all assigned. You would be correct if they only looked at the 1st choice for everyone before moving on to the other two choices. The odds your talking about are that everyone in that hunt code gets one chance to pull 1 of 100 green marbles out of a bag of 1000, 800 being red marbles. The way it really works is there are 3000 people being allowed to try and pull 1 of those marbles out of a bag full of 1000, 100 of them are green and 800 are red. When all the green marbles are chosen and you're not one of them, you spend time studying and planning for next year because your strategy failed because all of your hunt code choices repeated this process.



4) Inductive reasoning, while in this case panned out, isn't necessarily repeatable because now myself and several other lurkers know your "secret" and will apply this way next year decreasing your chances of drawing this tag again. Others will listen to Pod Casts and learn this secret as well, or watch NMDGF's video presentation on how to increase "odds". Pool hopping is why you cannot rely on anecdotal evidence. PERIOD!!! So, what happens for the next 5 years that your son is now one of the remaining "3 applicants" that doesn't get to even have the chance to pull a marble from the bag...?



Well it's a good thing the draw is over and the time you say I've "wasted" writing dozens of posts on a topic I'm indifferent about has only taken less than 30 days, and I still have until March 5 of 2022 to study odds that are not true odds to begin with because everything still hinges on that one roll of the dice against the other complete and total number of applications.

I have "studied and planned" and have put in for those hunt codes where tags go to a few number of applicants, and some that are spread nearly evenly across 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices to no avail. Consistent bad luck is why my anecdotal evidence tells me studying and planning is irrelevant. When your sample size is large enough, as in your case, favorable "odds" are usually in your favor.

Plain dumb luck of getting the right draw sequence number is what NM's draw system is all about. That's why some people, year after year, pull good tags which refutes your entire post that rails against mine. My point, obviously not stated clearly, is that the odds of NM's draw system are not what you think they are.

If they did not stack you up against everyone's application at the start, I would agree they have the best draw system.

You are dang sure way more accurate with this reply , #2 YOU ARE SPOT ON...