Stock Market Madness

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
It’s crazy that the stock market is back up there! I was thinking this level was a bit high when there wasn’t 15% unemployment, back in 2019. Getting closer to record levels again during a pandemic. Geeesh
The dollars must be pouring in from outside the U.S.
 

hossblur

Long Time Member
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5,003
Seems like with our rich Uncle passing money out everywhere that risk is gone for a lot of public companies.
 

Bluehair

Very Active Member
Messages
2,553
It’s crazy that the stock market is back up there! I was thinking this level was a bit high when there wasn’t 15% unemployment, back in 2019. Getting closer to record levels again during a pandemic. Geeesh
The dollars must be pouring in from outside the U.S.
Dood, its down 16% from a month ago. Put down the crack pipe. :oops:
 

WVHUNTER

Active Member
Messages
894
Okay, I missed getting out before the first drop. Should I just eat my losses and get out now? Thinking about it. Since I wasn't fully into stocks to begin with my IRA is down 5%.
 

Homer

Long Time Member
Messages
8,649
It’s crazy that the stock market is back up there! I was thinking this level was a bit high when there wasn’t 15% unemployment, back in 2019. Getting closer to record levels again during a pandemic. Geeesh
The dollars must be pouring in from outside the U.S.


the dollars are pouring in from the fed printing presses....no where else...
 

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
Okay, I missed getting out before the first drop. Should I just eat my losses and get out now? Thinking about it. Since I wasn't fully into stocks to begin with my IRA is down 5%.
You're doing great compared to most being down just 5%. I’m off 7% from my all time high, but I’m all stocks and aggressive. I’ve managed to beat the S&P by 12+% over the past 4 years, so I’m actually ahead compared to the S&P. Can’t complain about that, but for the most part, I own individual stocks.
Warren Buffet would tell you to buy and own forever, never sell. But he dumped all airline stocks, so......
I unloaded a few stocks yesterday, but I’ll be buying again soon. I don’t like having the money doing nothing.

Im just blown away by how much the stock market has come back. It’s crazy considering all this crap going on!

No one knows where it’ll go from here, but odds are in 5 years it’ll be up. Right?
 

Wiszard

Long Time Member
Messages
8,742
Barring when the next "pandemic" hits, things should rebound. You all know this will be happening again in 3-4 years, right? Gov Newsom of Cali blatantly said in a speech a week ago that Pelosi, his aunt, is working on Cali asking for a federal loan of ONE TRILLION dollars. Why would we need this in 3-4 years? This is foreshadowing people. Be prepared....especially if a Democrat is the POTUS. Lockdown will be much more severe and lengthy. Mark my words....
 

JRABQ

Active Member
Messages
802
I am also surprised it rebounded so well, I did not sell during the crash so the question is should I move some money into safer harbors now? Crazy thing is what I thought were my riskier investments (aggressive mutual funds, I'm terrible at picking individual stocks) actually outperformed what I thought were "safer" investments since the first of the year thru the crash. So maybe I'll just keep things as they are.
 

Jagerdad

Very Active Member
Messages
1,772
I think the large investors with decades in the market, will simply conduct a series of multi leveled Manipulations over Time, Over Intercontinental Banks to fool millions of Investors. And move forward with their plans.

Good Luck

Jagerdad :-(
 

eelgrass

Long Time Member
Messages
25,822
I don't think the stock market is aware of what the "new normal" means. I'm being ultra conservative until I see what 2021 brings.
 

WVHUNTER

Active Member
Messages
894
I have always agreed with the philosophy of investing in stocks for the long term and historically that has given the best return.
But that only applies up to a certain age. If it takes ten years to come back at 68 I might be dead by then.
I think eel and I are looking at this the same way, we don't have a lot of "growth stock" years left.
 

Bluehair

Very Active Member
Messages
2,553
To Founders point, if you rode it all the way down and then bailed, you missed out on a huge rally. If you were still in the saddle, you earned a couple years worth of returns in a couple weeks. But we still have a ways to go to get back.

And meanwhile, the economy is hemorrhaging and new winners and losers are being picked every day. Like eel said, its going to look different on the other side and some old fools won't believe their eyes, and will end up losing far more than the averages.

When you hoard your cash, don't forget to spray it with fabreeze. :)
 

Longun

Long Time Member
Messages
3,925
In Feb--Gold was 1600.00 an ounce...Now its 1700.00...meanwhile stock market has dropped 17% in the same time period...I'll stick to shiny stuff...not someone's propaganda bullshit..
 

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
Who’d of thunk it? Here the stock market is almost back to where it was in February when it was already a little more than I’d have expected, but now we have huge unemployment and many businesses going at 50% or less. Crazy, but I guess we can’t complain.
 

Bluehair

Very Active Member
Messages
2,553
Dear Brian,

The DJIA was 29,551 a few weeks ago. It is currently at about 24,500. So, if I divide 24500 by 29551......borrow a one.......carry the nine.........multiply by the inverse of the square root.....

Equals 82.9%. What am I missing here? Thats the difference between a 165 buck and a 200" buck to put it in a language we all understand.
 

Castnshoot

Very Active Member
Messages
1,048
Dear Brian,

The DJIA was 29,551 a few weeks ago. It is currently at about 24,500. So, if I divide 24500 by 29551......borrow a one.......carry the nine.........multiply by the inverse of the square root.....

Equals 82.9%. What am I missing here? Thats the difference between a 165 buck and a 200" buck to put it in a language we all understand.

Trying to explain the obvious to some people could cause your face to turn blue as well as your hair.

Mentally testing false positive maybe.
 
Last edited:

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
Dear Brian,

The DJIA was 29,551 a few weeks ago. It is currently at about 24,500. So, if I divide 24500 by 29551......borrow a one.......carry the nine.........multiply by the inverse of the square root.....

Equals 82.9%. What am I missing here? Thats the difference between a 165 buck and a 200" buck to put it in a language we all understand.
You missed “almost”. I believe the S&P is only off 5-6% from all time highs now. I’m closer. It’s sure much closer to the highs than the lows of a month or so ago.
 

sticksender

Active Member
Messages
728
I keep mine in high-risk, high-reward and look at it about every 5 years. Looking at it daily or monthly leads to worry & mistakes. When I'm nearing 70 I'll look at it more often and decide when it's time to bail off into low-yield conservative.
 

nfh

Long Time Member
Messages
6,054
My retirement is back to normal. Kicked some butt latley.

Founder this is the part where you say thank you Donald Trump. You know darn well if obummer was in you would praise him
 

Bluehair

Very Active Member
Messages
2,553
Im Sorry, but I can't let this go. The high was 29,531 on 2/12 and the recent low was 18,592 on 3/23. The median of those two numbers is 24,062, and it closed today at 24,576. Those two numbers are "almost" the same, not 29,000 and 24,000.

This is the DJIA. Now I realize there are other benchmarks with different results. Unless there is some obscure benchmark for toilet paper, it is much more accurate to say that the indexes are almost half way back than to say almost all the way back.

Not that any of this matters to most people.
 

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
Im Sorry, but I can't let this go. The high was 29,531 on 2/12 and the recent low was 18,592 on 3/23. The median of those two numbers is 24,062, and it closed today at 24,576. Those two numbers are "almost" the same, not 29,000 and 24,000.

This is the DJIA. Now I realize there are other benchmarks with different results. Unless there is some obscure benchmark for toilet paper, it is much more accurate to say that the indexes are almost half way back than to say almost all the way back.

Not that any of this matters to most people.
Ok, ok. I like the sound of my account only being halfway back. Better than my thinking that I’m almost back. Hopefully that other half is worth as much of the first half.
 

Buckjunkie

Active Member
Messages
276
Maybe this helps

S & P closed at 2,971 today. The 52 week high was 3,393. It’s currently down 12.5%.

Dow closed at 24,575 today. The 52 week high was 29,568. It’s currently down 17%.

Nasdaq closed at 9,375 today. The 52 week high was 9,838. It’s currently down 5%.
 

Tristate

Long Time Member
Messages
6,250
Unemployment sits around %15 now and the Dow is sitting at 24,000???? There are no business fundamentals there fellas. Its cooked books. I think you would have to be suicidal to put money in that.
 

Bluehair

Very Active Member
Messages
2,553
One is considered a leading indicator, the other not so much. I expect the REAL unemployment number is far higher because of all the people sitting at home getting paid while businesses chase the loan foregiveness nipple.
 

Tristate

Long Time Member
Messages
6,250
"Equities market is knocked around by surprises. Job loss from Covid wasn't one. "

Like I said. No fundamentals anymore.
 

whitetailrick

Active Member
Messages
113
DO NOT fight the FED! Especially during an election year. The fed must give the people the illusion that things are going to get better in the future. The fundamentals do not add up.
 

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
The big question is ...... if you've got new money to invest for retirement, what YOU doing with it. Putting it in a draw, buying gold, bonds, basketball cards, stocks, etc????
 

whitetailrick

Active Member
Messages
113
Wait... holding cash is a strategy. Think about it, if for some reason if Trump is not re- elected in 170 days markets really tank... When the PPP money rules end (July?) a lot of businesses that received $ will have to lay off (ie. airlines, hotels etc) this is not over..... 40+ million unemployed by Sept. Congress will pass more stimulus if market tanks.... again election year. After November look out..... IMO. Buffet has not bought anything just sold.
 

eelgrass

Long Time Member
Messages
25,822
What part of 40 million unemployed doesn't the stock market understand?

Oh, that's right, the Feds just keep printing money to pump it up.
 
Messages
8
There is a good number of laid off folks that are avoiding going back to work due to the increase in unemployment funds they are receiving. That needs to stop.
RELH
You are exactly right many are making more sitting at home choosing the unemployment route for more money. This wasn't just luck it was set up to keep people home and inflate the jobless rate to make the administration look bad I feel.
A friend of mine took the whole Spring gobbler season off with the well wishes of his boss and hunted every day. He is making 300$ more a week to do that.
As far as the market I missed the initial drop so I'm riding it out 15 years until retirement. Wish I could have times it right and jumped out then back in.
 

RELH

Long Time Member
Messages
16,578
Brownbear you did not have that insider information that several politicians had that allowed them to sell off their stock before it took a nosedive.
RELH
 

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
Brownbear you did not have that insider information that several politicians had that allowed them to sell off their stock before it took a nosedive.
RELH
I wonder if there was any insider information that it was going to fly back to it’s highs even with huge unemployment?
Crazy!
They say there are a lot of gamblers in the market now with casinos having been closed. Everyone is trying to turn their $1200 from Trump into $2400 overnight.
And lots of foreign $$$ being pulled from foreign investments and getting dumped into our market.
 

WVHUNTER

Active Member
Messages
894
Founder, you are right, this is crazy. A month ago I was considering taking my retirement out of growth stocks, glad I didn't, it's now back up to prepandemic amount. Although the DOW is still down about 8%, the S&P is back.
Now looking forward is there any reason to think it's going higher? A couple of things:
1) The Market likes unemployment rates to be improving, at 13% they almost have to improve
2) Next Stimulus money, Market likes the government to give business's money
3) Low interest rates

Things that could make it go down:
1) Trump loses
2) Next Stimulus doesn't get passed
3) Pandemic gets out of control and have to shut down again
4) By this fall unemployment gets stuck at 8% or 9%, there are major businesses that aren't going to come back this year to their prepandemic levels. Airlines, Tourist business like cruises, casinos, Disney, restaurants, bars, beach destinations, all travel in country or out.

So okay guys, what's your advice?
 

Katoom

Active Member
Messages
254
Whatever you do, don’t purchase a triple leveraged short S&P fund last Thursday.

Dang it!!!! Too late for me!
 

OutdoorWriter

Very Active Member
Messages
2,933
We have a modest IRA (OPTFX) with Invesco that is basically NASDAQ heavy. On May 19, it was $56,322. As of yesterday's close, it was $67,112. It's performed that way for the last couple years.
 

eelgrass

Long Time Member
Messages
25,822
I'm having very modest gains over the last few months. Waiting for the other shoe to drop.....about November.
 

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
It’s been a rough time for many during this pandemic crap and I feel for them and wish all well.
I own a little bit in a gold ETF, but I’ve been heavy in Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Google, Adobe and MasterCard for years. I’ve done really well, especially since the market tank in February. The S&P is just about back to where it was on Feb. 19th, my account is up 10% from that day. Can’t complain. But it has been crazy.
 

OutdoorWriter

Very Active Member
Messages
2,933
It’s been a rough time for many during this pandemic crap and I feel for them and wish all well.
I own a little bit in a gold ETF, but I’ve been heavy in Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Google, Adobe and MasterCard for years. I’ve done really well, especially since the market tank in February. The S&P is just about back to where it was on Feb. 19th, my account is up 10% from that day. Can’t complain. But it has been crazy.

Our IRA is also heavy with the techs you listed (about 35-40%), as well as Visa, google, Navidia, Bookings. etc. But in total, there's about 70 different stocks, and some are DOW or S&P.
 

Founder

Founder Since 1999
Messages
10,079
Our IRA is also heavy with the techs you listed (about 35-40%), as well as Visa, google, Navidia, Bookings. etc. But in total, there's about 70 different stocks, and some are DOW or S&P.
Tech has been working, but I’ve been setting up for a pullback and no longer fully invested. Will probably go to a larger cash position as the S&P gets back to its high. They can’t go up forever, can they?????
 

OutdoorWriter

Very Active Member
Messages
2,933
Tech has been working, but I’ve been setting up for a pullback and no longer fully invested. Will probably go to a larger cash position as the S&P gets back to its high. They can’t go up forever, can they?????

I'll be looking for a safe haven just prior to the election. I just have a squishy feeling about it. :cool: If Trump wins, I'll get back into CAP A stuff like now.
 

Gator

Long Time Member
Messages
17,178
He tried BUT I still have a few penny's. It the future you should be looking at not the past nightmare. LOL
Thanks for thinking about me.
I sure hope you didn't send me a food package.
Do you need any tissue's.
 

BeanMan

Long Time Member
Messages
6,221
been awhile since I have checked in here still above ground. Hello guys finally got settled into our new home and with some good health back to hunting in 2021.
If you need a hand in Western Colorado all you have to do is ask!
 

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