Trying to figure better way to estimate deer population.

[cantkillathing]

So I have never been a fan of UDWR model of counting deer or estimating deer populations. It’s an outdated model, and even when you ask about it they give the old saying well we aren’t worried about the population but only the trend, and if trend is going up then we are good. I got them to admit that they could be off on each unit by thousands but they didn’t care about tonly worried about trend. The model is only as good as the information being punched in, and wether the beginning number is even close. If they say a unit has 10,000 deer then when they put in the fawns, buck harvest, etc.. it would calculate a growth or decline, but if the unit really had 5,000 deer and not 10,000 then the growth or decline is different number if you had 65% fawn survival and you use your 10,000 that will let the model think there was 6,500 fawns but in reality your unit is 5,000 and 65% of this 3,250. Growth is half.
This is long but stay with me. Let’s try something different and work on getting better estimates. I want you guys to look at your unit. Go calculate in your unit plan and see how many acres are winter range and then divide that acreage by deer populations This will roughly give you how many deer per acre you should see in winter range. Example if there is 678,000 acres of winter range and your deer population is 9400. 678,00/9400=72.12. I should be able to see 1 deer every 72.12 acres. Or in 1 square mile of all winter range there should be 8-9 deer. Basically if I drive 100 miles and can see 600 ft on each side of road I should in theory see 2 deer per mile or at least see 200 deer in 100 miles. I am open to suggestions on this and a work in progress.
I know we have had a group of guys out counting deer and we have a hard time finding a thousand deer. We can’t even find 10% of the population.

 

[elkassassin]

Deer Are Hard To Count Exactly!

But Most of Us Know There Isn't as many as there Should Be!

Back in the Day of Hunting Lions!

Pounding the Same Drainage's every Weekend and Sometimes Day in Day out for 7-10 Days Straight You Got a Damn Good Idea of How Many Deer there were!

Again,an Approximate Number,Never an Exact Number,but Damn Sure not some kind of BS Exaggerated Number!

The Buck to Doe Numbers/Ratio's Management is The Poorest Way Ever Of Managing a Mule Deer Herd!

You Think it's Bad in Your Neck of the Woods Cant?

The South Slope Deer Herd is in the Poorest Shape I've ever seen it in Excluding the one LE Unit!

With Current Management even the MOTL & Nubbins Bucks Get Counted on the Buck to Doe Ratio!

There should always be a Few Mature Bucks Make it through all the Seasons for Breeding,But have the DWR Post them Numbers!

Ya,I'm Waiting!

 

[elkassassin]

One More Thing Cant!

If You'd Buy Us Helicopter We could Do Some Serious Counting!

 

[Bluehair]

You need to start with the desired license revenue and then back into it.

 

[Snoopdogg]

You need to start with the desired license revenue and then back into it.

Hahahahahaha. Damn Bluehair, kick them right in the nuts!

 

[cantkillathing]

One More Thing Cant!

If You'd Buy Us Helicopter We could Do Some Serious Counting!

I keep hearing that deer are hard to count, I dont understand in my mind how we can fly and count elk, but we cant seem to do the same for deer? I find this more of an excuse, during the rut mule deer are more congregated and should be easily counted from the air. Is it just that as long as UDWR keeps telling us that its hard to count that we just except it as fact? We seem to count every other big game species from the sky and have the number down to exact. Elk have to be counted and maintained and cant go over the populations because other groups of interest will file law suits, maybe we need to file law suits if the deer numbers being portrait are not accurate.

 

[southernutahhunter]

I agree with all that has been said. I have been to every RAC meeting I can and get up and tell them until they begin with a more accurate count to start with, nothing will happen. Of course we all hear the same type of answers, bad winter, road kill, poor fawn crop, habitat, predator kill. All of which are true but why lie on the base numbers? 10 percent of what they claim is probably accurate. I have a hard time with the situation, because they start with a base number of deer in each of these units that we all know is crap, and then try to show us the trends from that base number. I don't think they want to admit what the real number is and what the consequence may be from that.

The Beaver unit that I hunt and I am sure many more are ruined. So now WHAT UDWR?

 

[DBLung]

Counting deer accurately is a challenge. As Cantkillathing mentions the model for issuing tags is based on trends. To me that should be easier to fix and adjust. The simple fact is Utah doesn't care to fix it. Truth be told 99.98% of their decisions are based on budget and revenue. Just like every other government agency, they need to feed the beast. Heaven forbid they ever downsize, or adjust their focus! Which brings up a whole other conversation. Enough with all the wasteful social projects and dishonest so called conservation groups.

 

[cantkillathing]

I wish all spending was focused on mule deer, I mean all conservation money, if it were then we could get a head of the problem. Every penny spent on these animals that us average Joe get to hunt each year, well getting to be every other year, or every 2 years. Could you imagine if millions upon millions were put in for mule deer, I know for our area on the San Juan we could use hundreds of man built water sources, or thousands, drill wells and put on solar systems, water is a big problem for us, but we have the tools and technology to supply the water, we need money and people willing to do the grunt work to get this going.

 

[ridgetops]

Seems like flying would he the best way to count but it is expensive.

 

[Muleman]

Not as easy as it sounds. Agencies have gone to the trend method because no model yet gives an accurate way to get a population estimate. All models have to make assumptions and there are too many factors the effect a deer population. Also there is no way to truth the models on a large scale like a game management unit

For example in the OP idea with the deer number of deer per acre and you should be able to see X amount of deer in X amount of acres. That doesn’t work because all habitat is not the same and the deer will never be evenly distributed on the landscape.

Trend info, buck/doe/fawn ratios are about the best one can hope for. Winter range helicopter surveys are good if you have a migrating population.

Good surveys can be done but at 1k an hr for helicopter there is a point of Diminishing returns. When social, political, and economic pressure dictate tag #s as much as the deer population.

 

[elkassassin]

THIS BUCK TO DOE RATIO BS DOES NOT WORK!

They've Tried it Forever & Look at the Shape the Deer Herd is in!

Then Somebody Blames Lasts Years Drought!

Drought Damn Sure Didn't Help anything!

But Add about 49 Other Reasons to the List & Quit Blaming One Thing!

JUDAS!

 

[mtnrunner260]

FLIR is the future of a more accurate method of counting a units population.
A handful of predator drones covering a unit in a day or less. Then some fancy program to rough count deer. Eliminate elk and livestock by size.
Would be expensive and take a few years to fine tune but would have to be an improvement over the current method.
Some game agencies already use FLIR in heavily forested areas.

 

[middlefork]

Muleman comes about as close as I have heard. Flying and radio collars give pretty good data but is very expensive.

And any data needs to be modeled because it can't be 100% accurate. So now it is up to all the smart people on here to come to a consensus. Good luck with that!

 

[Homer]

80 years of 1080 would have the same results as it did leading to the unnatural populations we all remember from the 60's to 80's......

 

[elkassassin]

True Homer!

But There's More to the Equation Now!

80 years of 1080 would have the same results as it did leading to the unnatural populations we all remember from the 60's to 80's......

 

[Downrange]

Nevada flys and counts their units. They actually will do it twice a year. Once in the fall after the hunts are over and when the deer are on their winter ranges. Again in the spring before they head to higher ground. They don’t count every unit every year but they try to get a count every 2-4 years at least. Maybe SFW should spend all that money they make and pay to have the units counted so we have some kind of and idea what’s there. Twice a year 1 in the spring and fall should give them a pretty accurate number.

 

[rubucky]

I think we can all agree that the current method isn’t working. I think the State knows the deer herds are in the toilet and they truly don’t want an accurate count. If the truth be known, Sportsman would be up in arms and drastic measures would have to be taken, which would cost money and reduce opportunity. I’m not sure what the fix is but proper management begins with accurate herd counts. I think they should definitely spend more time in the air, either with drones or planes, also I think we should have 100% hunter survey. Idaho does it and It’s pretty easy to do. I think success rates are way skewed. I can’t believe how bad the deer herds are and I never thought I’d see the day when you have more opportunity to hunt elk than deer.

 

[cantkillathing]

I think we can all agree that the current method isn’t working. I think the State knows the deer herds are in the toilet and they truly don’t want an accurate count. If the truth be known, Sportsman would be up in arms and drastic measures would have to be taken, which would cost money and reduce opportunity. I’m not sure what the fix is but proper management begins with accurate herd counts. I think they should definitely spend more time in the air, either with drones or planes, also I think we should have 100% hunter survey. Idaho does it and It’s pretty easy to do. I think success rates are way skewed. I can’t believe how bad the deer herds are and I never thought I’d see the day when you have more opportunity to hunt elk than deer.

Exactly....spoken truth right there...wish everyone would understand exactly what you just wrote...

 

[highfastflyer]

Flying by far is the most accurate when deer are on or near the Winter ranges, Flying is very expensive but if the DWR owned one or two aircraft or cheaper versions like powered parachutes then we could get more accurate data. Standardisation and objective counting methods need to be applied. Taking the guesswork out and everyone using the same counting system and methodology are paramount.

 

[MuleyKiller]

The DWR already knows that there counting method does not work! They don't care! They will continue to cut tags a little here and there on the units that they kind of care about (Bookcliffs). And then they will add a few tags in other units that they don't care about (any thing general season). Just to keep the checkbook balanced. Just like they kind of listen to what the RAC's vote on and they kind of listen to what the Biologists recommend,(Anthro elk now has a HAMS hunt for elk, what the hell !) and then they do whatever is necessary to balance the check book and provide an OPPURTUNITY for everyone. I am certain that you will never see quality deer hunting in Utah again with the exception of a couple Premium Units.

 

[southernutahhunter]

They have completely ruined most units by not owning up to the actual deer numbers. I agree Muleykiller, I only see it getting worse at this point.

 

[deadibob]

There's only one to do an accurate and exact count. We need to all go out and shoot them all, pile them up and let Bessy take a tally. When he's done counting there won't be a pisscutter in the whole pile.

For the rest of you, that was only an attempt at sarcasm/smartazzery