Trying to figure out draw odds for 2022

[westman]

This may be due to my ignorance but I'm having trouble figuring out what it will take to draw elk area 7 special tag. WG&F website has 2020 draw odds available but not 2021 yet. I have no idea when 2021 will be posted.
I will have 11 points and wonder if point creep still has that tag out of reach. Anyone have a better feel for this than I do? What will it take in 2022 to get that tag?
Thanks for any thoughts....

Bill

 

[junior]

96% drew on the special side with 11 points 2021. If I am reading this right there was 50 tags on the special side with 47 not drawing with 10+.
Odds could be better next year on the straight preference, having less apps with 10 points. Then again, obviously everyone can see the info and jump over from special.

 

[nfh]

 

[elkantlers]

the 2021 draw odds are on the Wyoming website.

In 2021 Unit 7 special was 98% success with 11 points. There were 514 applicants with < 11 points.

Someone may know the breakdown of the 514 unsuccessful applicants but I don't. My gut feeling is that 11 won't guarantee a Unit 7 tag in 2022.

 

[junior]

I am pretty sure that's 514 total first choice apps, not 514 with 11 points?

 

[junior]

This is from toprut

 

[junior]

Non special

 

[DoubleDropMuley]

I’d bet your odds would still be pretty good in the special with 11 points !!

 

[elkantlers]

I am pretty sure that's 514 total first choice apps, not 514 with 11 points?

Yes, that's correct. I just didn't know what each point group had for applicants.

 

[nfh]

Thats 514 people with 11 points or less