Utah draw odds?

[walleye1121]

Why does Utah post such inaccurate drawing odds?
Henry Mt. archery deer suggests roughly 1 in 52 odds.
But with bonus points factored in the true odds are 1 in 946.

 

[SanPitch]

Why does Utah post such inaccurate drawing odds?
Henry Mt. archery deer suggests roughly 1 in 52 odds.
But with bonus points factored in the true odds are 1 in 946.


View attachment 78491

It’s not really drawing odds, it’s more success ratio like it says on the top there, it just means 1 in 51 people drew a tag between bonus and regular tags, which is completely accurate.

 

[walleye1121]

I disagree.
Even if you go to the simple terms 4 tags went to 461 people.

 

[SanPitch]

I disagree.
Even if you go to the simple terms 4 tags went to 461 people.

No, 9 tags went to 461 people, wether it’s bonus tags or regular tags that’s the fact, and 461 divided by 9 is 51, therefore 1 in 51 people drew a tag, like I said your odds are not 1 in 51 but that’s the “success ratio”, I will never understand why the link the DWR uses to these documents says draw odds because that’s not what they are, they are just draw results like it says on the top

 

[walleye1121]

Ok, that is true but with bonus points in the mix you are more than one applicant x your points.
Not trying to argue, but it is misleading and should probably be left off the sheet.

 

[SanPitch]

Ok, that is true but with bonus points in the mix you are more than one applicant x your points.
Not trying to argue, but it is misleading and should probably be left off the sheet.

I agree It definitely is misleading and should be made more clear what it really is

 

[roadrunner]

The reported number is the distribution of what tags went to what point group. Nothing more, nothing less.

You cannot use these numbers to predict what your chances are unless you are in a max point holder group.

 

[BrowningRage]

The most accurate number would be to use Non-Bonus tags and the total number of entries for those tags. In this case, after removing those applicants who drew the 5 bonus tags, you have 3993 total entries for the remaining 4 tags. So, there are roughly 1000 entries per each of those tags. You can then find your odds by using the number of entries you have, divided by 1000. Someone applying for the first time has a 1/1000 (0.1%) chance. Those in that 20 point pool had a 20/1000 (2%) chance.

I did this for the Book Cliffs South Rifle tag I drew... my odds of getting a random tag with 3 BPs (4 entries)..? Just 0.8%.

 

[cannonball]

Regardless of how you look at it, it's Utah form of gambling. The Wildlife Board could help the situation by changing it to where everything is limited entry. The way it is now if a young person started putting in they may draw out in their 60's.

 

[walleye1121]

Yes, they could easily relabel the premium deer hunts to once in a lifetime. They essentially are.

 

[elktaker]

Why does Utah post such inaccurate drawing odds?
Henry Mt. archery deer suggests roughly 1 in 52 odds.
But with bonus points factored in the true odds are 1 in 946.


View attachment 78491

Because those are odds just results. You got to do the math yourself.