Waiting period vs 90/10

jims

Long Time Member
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I thought I would post an interesting table I just compiled that backs what I've been saying about waiting period vs 90/10 improving Wyo resident draw odds. I compared this for the toughest antelope units in Wyo to draw as residents.

I've included waiting periods out to 5 years for these units. The 2 shaded columns on the right show 2021 res draw odds and 2021 draw draw odds with 90/10 nonres tags added on. Take a look at how waiting periods improve Wyo res draw odds each year in premium high demand units without taking 1/2 of the tags from nonres. As I've been saying all along 90/10 barely improves res draw odds in premium units.

Wyo res are asking for something that will improve their odds of drawing premium high demand tags. Well here you go! Wyo res could have the option of choosing premium units with waiting periods or regular units without waiting periods that have excellent draw odds and could be drawn every year.

IMG_5369.jpg
 
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I just noticed something interesting. It only takes around 1 year of waiting to accomplish draw odds similar to 90/10!
 
How do you know how many people wont pull off an area they just drew and apply in the other areas? If there was a waiting period you'd have to make it where somone couldnt apply all together for that species to even have an accurate example
 
There would be a waiting period after someone draws a premium unit tag. Once they draw a premium tag they can't apply for a premium unit for the set number of years but can still apply for regular units. If it's set up that way they could buy general tags any year they don't draw a premium or regular tags.

Obviously if more hunters start applying for one particular unit other units will have better draws. If a unit becomes tough enough to draw it can be added to the pool of premium units. If more guys suddenly start applying for premium units the regular units will get easier to draw.

Right now every Wyo resident has the same chance to draw tags every year. As more people move to Wyo draw odds will continue to decrease in premium units each year with or without 90/10. The number of nonres tags that will be handed over to res in the premium units is so low that 90/10 hardly improves draw odds.

Draw odds for the premier units aren't bad in antelope units to begin with and a waiting period definitely helps compared to 90/10 according to my table in the first post. There are so many regular antelope units that currently have fantastic draw odds for Wyo res that draw odds will still remain good to excellent. Waiting periods improve draw odds for the premium units that Wyo res want better opportunity to draw.

This is just another draw option that could be researched a little more in depth and compared to bonus pts or other options. I just think there are some options that may be worth investigating before jumping in and going the 90/10 route for deer, elk, and antelope. I really believe a lot of Wyo res are going to be disappointed when they see their draw opportunity for premium tags isn't going to improve much for high demand limited tags with 90/10.
 
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Utah shows that wait periods don't work.
Unit specific wait periods simply shift applicants, and over time, all units draw odds will decrease triggering wait periods for all.

If you want better odds, add more tags, every other option simply decreases applicants.
 
Sebastian is looking at this all wrong.

Its not about increasing drawing odds, its about getting more tags into the hands of residents.

90-10 does just that, and the task force knows it.

I'm starting to think 90-10, 15 year waiting period for any NR who draws a DEA on a first choice in Wyoming. No point averaging either.

That will relieve a lot of pressure and greatly increase NR draw odds.

Its all about improving draw odds according to Sebastian.
 
How do you know how many people wont pull off an area they just drew and apply in the other areas? If there was a waiting period you'd have to make it where somone couldnt apply all together for that species to even have an accurate example
Right, and you honestly think Residents, or the task force, are going to make Wyoming residents sit on the sidelines for 3-4-5 year because they draw a LQ elk, deer, and in particular pronghorn tag?

That idea isn't going anywhere...

We'll have a point system and 90-10 long before a waiting period, and that's a fact.
 
Its not about increasing drawing odds, its about getting more tags into the hands of residents.

I think this is a message the task force could promote, but on the flip side, it probably isn't their job to try and educate the nr hunter.
 
I don’t know you from Adam, Jim, but the waiting period concept is the dumbest idea I’ve heard yet on the subject. Your one example has zero foresight into human factors (jumping units), tag reductions and general increasing demand over time. Just say you’re not in favor of 90/10, rally as many NR as you can to do the same and hope for the best.
 
Wyo res are complaining about not drawing high demand limited tags. Improving draw odds will do exactly that! 90/10 will barely change a Wyo res chance to draw high demand tags vs a waiting period for the same premium unit tag. Take a look at the table in the first post.

Buzz, nonres won't have to wait out 1 to 5 years after drawing deer, elk, and antelope tags and you know it! If set up the way I outlined they would only wait if they draw high demand premium unit tags.

Wapiti Bob, explain how a Wyo res applying for a unit 57 tag with a waiting period won't draw a tag after 4 or 5 years of waiting? What are the approximate Wyo res draw odds for unit 57 with 90/10 compared to without 90/10?

There were 297 res tags issued in unit 57 in 2021. If you take 1/2 the tags away from nonres in 57 that's only 38 additional tags. 5 years x 297 = 1,485 additional tags turned over to Wyo res that haven't drawn a premium tag during that 5 year period.
I already know the answer from Buzz, JM, and his clan but if you are a Wyo res that wants to draw a unit 57 antelope tag which would you prefer: 100% odds of drawing a unit 57 antelope tag in 4 or 5 years with a waiting period or a 3% better chance of drawing a 57 tag with 90/10? Just remember draw odds will be even worse in the coming years as more nonres move to Wyo.
 
Jims,
You're simple spreadsheet doesn't account for a multitude of variables, Wapiti told you in his original post that waiting periods don't work in Utah, they wouldn't work in WY either... The task force had a lengthy conversation about statistical analysis for moose and sheep scenarios under 90/10, which would have been good for you to listen to.

A very simple omission that ruins your idea of waiting periods improving draw odds in 57...

Everything described after this point is hypothetical:
... In 2022 the allocation procedure is changed and posted by the G&F, so in 2023 under the new system for drawing we can assume numbers won't change due to it being the first year (297/1254 = 23.7%). Then in 2024 people think "Hey, I'm going to test my luck in 57 since there are waiting periods which hypothetically increases my odds"... therefore, more resident applicants apply than the 297 that have to wait and you actually have a net increase in applicants and lower odds (297/1500 = 19.8%). In 2025, you have 594 people not allowed to put in for 57 but other less "intune with the changes" residents finally hear about waiting periods being implemented and try their luck so we can assume a 2023 demand of 1254 (297/1254 = 23.7%). In 2026, additional residents would say "at some point this waiting period concept has to improve odds in 57" lets say only 1000 residents apply since you did remove 891 by waiting periods (297/1000 = 29.7%).

What is the waiting period 3, 5 10 years? I noted in bold the above was hypothetical and you may see some increased odds in the midterm (4-6 years after implementing) but waiting periods would definitely not guarantee a tag in 4-5 years. Since it's random, you may have continued worse odds, just like the NR special draw doesn't necessarily guarantee better odds than the regular pool.

Also, those waiting period folks just moved to a differnt unit and probably drew in those "lesser" units... So as WapitiBob told you about Utah in three lines of text, with the combined increase in applicants (which trends show is true) and possible decrease in population and thus tag numbers, the number of units that meet the hypothetical "waiting period" draw odds grows over time... it may take 10-15+ years but would likely happen as it happened in Utah... and you have WY residents not even able to apply due to waiting periods.
 
What’s with all the beating around the bush? Isn’t there a way I can just pay more to improve my chances?
 
Watching Wyoming is like watching Utah in the 90's.

Funny thing is the residents think they have some power

Here's a hint. YOU DONT. $$$ talks, bullshit walks, and 1000 of you ain't worth one deep pocket.

But hey, it's sure fun watching. ???????
 
Watching Wyoming is like watching Utah in the 90's.

Funny thing is the residents think they have some power

Here's a hint. YOU DONT. $$$ talks, bullshit walks, and 1000 of you ain't worth one deep pocket.

But hey, it's sure fun watching. ???????
You know someone doesn’t know what they are talking about when they compare Utah to WY. ?
 
Let's take a closer look at Utah vs Wyo!

There are rumored to be more antelope in Wyo than humans. There are approximately 3,300,000 humans in Utah compared to 573,000 residents in Wyo. There are actually approximately 400,000 antelope in Wyo and around 17,000 antelope in Utah.

There is no doubt that waiting periods in Utah won't work nearly as well as in a state like Wyo. There are approximately 24X more antelope and 6x fewer residents in Wyoming.

There is no doubt in my mind that waiting periods would work well in Wyo for antelope because there are so few applicants and so many limited antelope tags available. The other thing that goes in Wyo res favor is if a gob of applicants decide to apply for 57 that it will improve draw odds in other units.

If you add up all the applicants that applied for units 57, 58, 60, 61 and 78 tags in 2021 there were only 2,657 total resident applicants that applied for 506 tags in these top 5 toughest premium units to draw in Wyo. 2,657 divided by 506 is 5.6 years to cycle through all of those 2,657 applicants and have 100% chance of drawing one of those tags.

Obviously applicants for premium tags often switch to units with better draw odds and this would be the case if every applicant decided to apply for 57. Other premium tags would have better draw odds.

As I've shown in the table in my first post draw odds for Wyo residents will only increase up to 3% for these same 5 premium units with 90/10 and SIGNIFICANTLY increase with a waiting period.
 
I would rather see a preference point system on antelope. I don’t want it on deer and elk as we have General license hunting for those species but being all antelope are limited quota hunting a preference point system would work better for residents than waiting periods. If you draw you’re first choice then you would lose your points but 2nd, and 3rd choice and leftover licenses would not cost you points.
 

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