What’s my chances

[Hunterman1966]

I’ve been thinking about the upcoming Utah big game draw. I’m a Utah resident. I have 17 points for bull elk. I’ve been debating on a early rifle Manti or a muzzleloader Panguitch Lake. It. looks like I’ll have to wait another year for the Manti tag. As for Panguitch Lake does anyone have any better data? I check the DWR website for 2020 drawing odds, but it shows n/a for 17 points for Panguitch Lake.

 

[legacy]

It shows "N/A" because no one happened to draw with that many points. Keep in mind, that those are the prior draws bonus point totals. So if you have 17 now, you would have had 16 going into this years draw. So 3 people had 20 points and they all drew so they are out of next years draw. Zero people had 19 points, 1 person had 18 points, 4 people had 17 points and 5 people had 16 points (including yourself). So you can assume (if no one jumps in or out in 2021) that there will be 10 people with 17 points or more. There were only 5 tags so it looks like you wouldn't be guaranteed a bonus tag because there will be 1 person with 19 points, 4 with 18 & 5 with 17 (including you).

*And don't forget about "point creep".

 

[Str8UpLegitHunting]

It shows "N/A" because no one happened to draw with that many points. Keep in mind, that those are the prior draws bonus point totals. So if you have 17 now, you would have had 16 going into this years draw. So 3 people had 20 points and they all drew so they are out of next years draw. Zero people had 19 points, 1 person had 18 points, 4 people had 17 points and 5 people had 16 points (including yourself). So you can assume (if no one jumps in or out in 2021) that there will be 10 people with 17 points or more. There were only 5 tags so it looks like you wouldn't be guaranteed a bonus tag because there will be 1 person with 19 points, 4 with 18 & 5 with 17 (including you).

*And don't forget about "point creep".

 

[legacy]

View attachment 20353

ABSOLUTELY!

 

[slamdunk]

I’ve been thinking about the upcoming Utah big game draw. I’m a Utah resident. I have 17 points for bull elk. I’ve been debating on a early rifle Manti or a muzzleloader Panguitch Lake. It. looks like I’ll have to wait another year for the Manti tag. As for Panguitch Lake does anyone have any better data? I check the DWR website for 2020 drawing odds, but it shows n/a for 17 points for Panguitch Lake.

If you want the Manti tag more than Panguitch muzzy, what's one more year?

 

[Hunterman1966]

Thanks for the info. I was just wondering what the n/a meant.

 

[littlebighorn]

One more "tag draw" bummer to consider!
The number of people in your point pool and above who just bought points last year and didn't even apply! They aren't even listed in the odds, but they could apply next year.
Those numbers put me in deep depression thinking I may never draw!

 

[Silentstalker]

The only odds on those sheets that are remotely predictable are the max point holders/bonus tags odds. Even those change as people jump from unit to unit or come out of the points only pool to apply.

The odds listed line by line are useless and not a prediction of that amount of points to draw moving forward. They only tell you the odds of the few people in that group that drew random tags which is not likely to repeat.

 

[Silentstalker]

To answer your question specifically:

The Utah DWR odds show:

Manti Early Rifle-

21 people drew bonus permits with 18 points or more. All but 16 drew with 17 points. There are 59 people including you with 16 points (one less than you have now which you were awarded after your unsuccessful draw). That's 75 people competing for the 64 bonus permits.

Panguitch lake muzzy-

3 people drew bonus permits with 20 points. There are only 3 bonus permits.

There is 1 person with 18 points and 4 with 17 points, all ahead of you for the bonus permits. Then there are 5 people including you with 16 points (one less than you have now which you were awarded after your unsuccessful draw). That's 5 people ahead of you for the 3 bonus permits which need to draw permits before your group of 5 get a chance based on last years applicants.

If nothing else changes (which it always does at least a little bit) you would be much more likely to draw a Manti Rifle tag than a Panguitch Lake Muzzy tag. The random tags are really luck and can't be predicted.