What’s my chances

[Hunterman1966]

I’ve been thinking about the upcoming Utah big game draw. I’m a Utah resident. I have 17 points for bull elk. I’ve been debating on a early rifle Manti or a muzzleloader Panguitch Lake. It. looks like I’ll have to wait another year for the Manti tag. As for Panguitch Lake does anyone have any better data? I check the DWR website for 2020 drawing odds, but it shows n/a for 17 points for Panguitch Lake.

 

[Stubaby]

Fishlake early

 

[Maxxy]

Fishlake early

Stu, stop ruining the Fishlake... Its a terrible Units. It is not on the uppity!

 

[TheOneRidgeRunner]

If I wasn't familiar with Utah I'd figure there were only two limited entry units. Obviously the Wasatch and Manti are large units, but there are so many other great options and many hold larger bulls.
If I had your points I'd be hunting Muzzleloader on the Dutton!

 

[txhunter58]

Seems pretty straightforward to me. Out of your reach with 17 points. Needed 20 to get it this year. The N/A means no one with 17 points was chosen.

 

[BLooDTRaCKeR]

Nebo!

Seen some big ones over there this year!

 

[Vanilla]

17 won’t guarantee you a muzzy tag, but you have a shot.

I’d hunt where you want to hunt. That seems simple, but if you really have a unit you’d like to hunt, apply there. You never know if you’ll luck out.

 

[deerkiller]

Nebo!

Seen some big ones over there this year!

I wouldn’t burn 17 points on Nebo....

 

[Hunterman1966]

Thanks for the replies and for clearing up the question on the n/a.

 

[nvguy2]

Question for you. Just curious. If you have 17 points right now, wouldnt that put you in the 16 point column that txhunter58 posted since you had 16 going into the 2020 draw? If so, I’d say your not quite guaranteed, but getting really close.

 

[Stubaby]

Stu, stop ruining the Fishlake... Its a terrible Units. It is not on the uppity!

You are right. Just hold out for Monroe early.

 

[nvguy2]

Question for you. Just curious. If you have 17 points right now, wouldnt that put you in the 16 point column that txhunter58 posted since you had 16 going into the 2020 draw? If so, I’d say your not quite guaranteed, but getting really close.

So, I’m wondering if you’ve looked at the odds closely on the website. After just looking, it seems to me if a lot of people don’t jump, you stand a fairly good chance of pulling a bonus tag for the Manti early. You’d have to compare the last few years to kind of compare. 64 bonus tags I believe and look how many above you and in your 16 point column from last year are gone. If you want to draw in 2021 and want my opinion, I’d put in for Manti early. That’s the tag I’ve been waiting for. 20 NR points now. Go to the Draw odds on this forum or the website and see what I’m talking about.

 

[Hunterman1966]

Thanks for the info. I was just wondering what the n/a meant.

 

[txhunter58]

Utah is hard to figure. Many people just put in for points until They want to draw. so new “max points” people pop up every year. And others switch units year to year. So you have to try and outguess others moves. Kind of like chess. You want info but if you draw too much attention to a unit, it may lower the odds ?