What Happened

stevie

Active Member
Messages
299
I blanked out again on the draw. So did my daughter. My boy draw javelina which is nice.

I'm a NR (live in El Paso) and I haven't drawn a deer tag in 5 years. Prior to that I drew for deer every year including the first two or three post SB 196 years. I mean every year. My kids drew youth deer hunts every year as well up until about 5 years ago. I know how to play the game putting down marginal units as my 2nd and 3rd choice which I always do.

So is it bad luck or are there that many more NRs applying now?
 
It's definitely got tougher across the board for residents & nonresidents the past 5 years with applicants just continuing to increase and odds going down.

That being said, some of it is just bad luck. I'm going through a 2 year red streak as a resident, and I put in for every species except Javelina. In years past I would normally luck out and get at least 1 tag that was "lucky" to draw, anywhere from 1% - 15% odds, but just hasn't happened for me the past 2 years. Always know that's a risk when I don't include those "for sure" tags, like 50% odds or higher.

As long as your studying the draw odds, nothing more you can do.
 
I sure long for the days before we had to draw for deer. You could count on hunting with the same guys in the same area every year. Back when the units were designated by letters rather than numbers.

I understand why it can't be that way anymore...but I do miss it.
 
Just remember, this is the easiest it’s gonna get for drawing tags. Lots of people playing the game. I bet draw odds get worse by minimal 15% per year. Especially with all the free advertising Western draws get from self promoters. I hit all red as a NR this year. It will be interesting to see what the 2023 draw odds were.
 
Looking forward to the youth javelina hunt for my son though. Never pursued them before, but I think we have the whole state to hunt and a whole month for the effort. Will bring along some shotguns for quail and it will make a grand expedition.
 
Probably partly bad luck but also odds are getting worse each year. You can look at the numbers on the NM G&F website and see for yourself. Tags that were close to 100% odds 10 years ago are now less than 50% odds and some are even worse than that.
 
It all comes down to luck of the draw. Our family has been VERY, VERY fortunate and drawn some really great tags over the years:

Son 1
youth 5B deer
youth 34 elk

Son 2
Youth ibex
50/52 muzzy antelope
16B early rifle elk (drew this year)

Son 3
Nothing

Me
16D first rifle elk
16B early rifle elk (twice)
rifle antelope (back when they assigned you to a ranch)
50/52 muzzy antelope
OIL oryx
 
I sure long for the days before we had to draw for deer. You could count on hunting with the same guys in the same area every year. Back when the units were designated by letters rather than numbers.

I understand why it can't be that way anymore...but I do miss it.
Back when you close a region. That was in the 90’s. I miss those days also. And the first want like a flipping circus every time you went out. Wasn’t music blasting every twenty feet and people out there to only party. People still did, but not like it is now.
 
Back when you close a region. That was in the 90’s. I miss those days also. And the first want like a flipping circus every time you went out. Wasn’t music blasting every twenty feet and people out there to only party. People still did, but not like it is now.
There were also deer back then.
 
Although my crap draw luck record for 12 freakin years finally ended. On the same day I had three friends all draw the best deer tags in my state on their first & second tries. I have never drawn that tag in 12 years of trying. I gave up last year told one guy and he promptly drew first try, then again this year. Then these 2 others this year. Sick to my stomach. You definitely don’t ever want to apply with me on any party hunt in any state, at any time, with any points.
 
"Odds" should get better over time. Natural attrition will begin to kick in. Boomers will become too old and decrepit to apply and/or start to die off. Gen Xers, Millennials, and Zoomers that can't draw will lose interest and move on to other things leaving the remaining Gen Xers, Millennials, and Zoomers with better "odds".

10 years out though assuming status quo on the legality and ability to hunt.
 
Just remember, this is the easiest it’s gonna get for drawing tags. Lots of people playing the game. I bet draw odds get worse by minimal 15% per year. Especially with all the free advertising Western draws get from self promoters. I hit all red as a NR this year. It will be interesting to see what the 2023 draw odds were.
I tell people we're living in the "glory days" of hunting. Hunts are probably going to keep getting harder to draw.
 
Ya why is the proclamation in Spanish corrupt 900 percent increase in Chinese people coming across the border no women or children only young Chinese men that are paying 35,000 dollars each to coyote smugglers you knuckleheads that are voting for biden get what you wanted these people that claim they are American are they liberal scum
 
Solid RED, im still in mourning. Been 6 yrs since I chased elk with my bow in NM . I used to say , there's always next year but as I grow older that may not be realistic. I've had an amazing number of memories in NM, they won't ever be forgotten. SHALOM
 
Solid RED, im still in mourning. Been 6 yrs since I chased elk with my bow in NM . I used to say , there's always next year but as I grow older that may not be realistic. I've had an amazing number of memories in NM, they won't ever be forgotten. SHALOM

Same here. Last elk tag I drew was archery in 2017.
 
The days of hunting deer and elk at the same time with a bow for 20 days straight were the good days. Start in NM, if you hadn't tagged out go to AZ and then come back to NM. With 6 members of my immediate family putting in this year as residents we drew 1 elk and 1 deer tag. We used to draw 3 to 5 of each.
With all the hunters playing the put in for everything odds, my opinion is its not going to get better anytime soon.
Ranchers are contracting all their private land tags to outfitters and the days of helping on the ranch for a tag are quickly becoming a thing of the past.
 
The days of hunting deer and elk at the same time with a bow for 20 days straight were the good days. Start in NM, if you hadn't tagged out go to AZ and then come back to NM. With 6 members of my immediate family putting in this year as residents we drew 1 elk and 1 deer tag. We used to draw 3 to 5 of each.
With all the hunters playing the put in for everything odds, my opinion is its not going to get better anytime soon.
Ranchers are contracting all their private land tags to outfitters and the days of helping on the ranch for a tag are quickly becoming a thing of the past.
It’s becoming a rich man’s sport. Most people put in for each state to get a chance or two to hunt. I hate to say it like that, but it really is.
 
There still is. Not as many as there used to be, but they’re still out there.
Yep they are there ,just gotta go find em. Many Res. drive around in threir truck drinking Bud Light (maybee different brand this year. Maybee) hoping to see a deer . 20 years ago you could. ..................BULL!
 
"Odds" should get better over time. Natural attrition will begin to kick in. Boomers will become too old and decrepit to apply and/or start to die off. Gen Xers, Millennials, and Zoomers that can't draw will lose interest and move on to other things leaving the remaining Gen Xers, Millennials, and Zoomers with better "odds".

10 years out though assuming status quo on the legality and ability to hunt.
I disagree. Point systems are maturing and there’s just too many points in the system and too much knowledge and money out there to ever let that turn even in complete random draw states. Draw odds on squared bonus states consistently go down even as your point numbers go up. Long story short, the best chance you have to draw tags is TODAY.
 
I disagree. Point systems are maturing and there’s just too many points in the system and too much knowledge and money out there to ever let that turn even in complete random draw states. Draw odds on squared bonus states consistently go down even as your point numbers go up. Long story short, the best chance you have to draw tags is TODAY.

We're talking NM here. If point systems were relevant, this thread would be in the General Hunting section.

Not all states run their point systems the same either.

Regardless, people will begin to drop out. Points or no points...
 
We're talking NM here. If point systems were relevant, this thread would be in the General Hunting section.

Not all states run their point systems the same either.

Regardless, people will begin to drop out. Points or no points...
Even if people drop out (which I absolutely guarantee won’t happen), it’s supply and demand. If you’re saying demand may go down, supply needs to stay the same. If we’ve proven one thing since the 1980’s on it’s that our western big game species are in a slow trending decline. I don’t expect that to change. Private land will get more and more productive due to the value of the animals but those animals will be just that, private. Expect the E plus system to go the way of the A plus system and NM elk will become like MT elk, incredibly over objective unit wide but all concentrated on private which will be inaccessible to draw hunters. That causes a dog pile of hunters onto the few remaining public areas and increases demand due to a limited supply.

Again, mark my words. Regardless of whether a state has a bonus system or not, the best time for anyone anywhere to ever draw a tag is right now. Odds will continue to get worse even as you earn points in bonus systems. Preference states will continue to see creep.
 
If you think draw odds are going to get better in the west then you have forgotten to account for wolves in CO. Colorado currently issues the most NR DIY tags of any western state by a wide margin. What do you think will happen when CPW is forced to reduce quotas?
 
Even if people drop out (which I absolutely guarantee won’t happen), it’s supply and demand. If you’re saying demand may go down, supply needs to stay the same. If we’ve proven one thing since the 1980’s on it’s that our western big game species are in a slow trending decline. I don’t expect that to change. Private land will get more and more productive due to the value of the animals but those animals will be just that, private. Expect the E plus system to go the way of the A plus system and NM elk will become like MT elk, incredibly over objective unit wide but all concentrated on private which will be inaccessible to draw hunters. That causes a dog pile of hunters onto the few remaining public areas and increases demand due to a limited supply.

Again, mark my words. Regardless of whether a state has a bonus system or not, the best time for anyone anywhere to ever draw a tag is right now. Odds will continue to get worse even as you earn points in bonus systems. Preference states will continue to see creep.

Since we're trying to compare game management with economics now, the supply will stay status quo so long as outside forces don't affect it (severe drought, extreme winter, loss of habit through massive wildfire). Supply is not a function of demand. If you're trying to create market equilibrium with a supply and demand curve with wildlife management, you're pissing in the wind. The quantity demanded will not affect the supply.

The loss in interest of hunting would be the one thing to privatizatize hunting, not a large demand of hunters.

Quantity demanding will go down through natural attrition. Mark my words.
 
I thought my 3rd choice deer was pretty much a given.
At minimum, my best shot.
No luck there either.
The last NM tag I had was an archery Javelina 3 or 4 years ago.
Been applying in NM for at least 15 years.
Never had an Elk or Antelope tag.
And, as I age I realize I dont have many Western opportunities
remaining.
 
I thought my 3rd choice deer was pretty much a given.
At minimum, my best shot.
No luck there either.
The last NM tag I had was an archery Javelina 3 or 4 years ago.
Been applying in NM for at least 15 years.
Never had an Elk or Antelope tag.
And, as I age I realize I dont have many Western opportunities
remaining.
Same here. Not many more chances to use a tag IF I could draw one!
 
Just throwing this out there so don’t chew my head off guys??
What about the radical tree hugging groups?
Anyone think they’re impacting the draw?
One can only hope so. Harvest success will go down, even if they lie on harvest surveys, buck to doe ratios or whatever metric we are using to make our management decisions will show the actual truth and we’ll be getting funding from a whole other source we weren’t before. After all, the best thing in most of our opinions for getting buck to doe ratios higher would be getting a tag, not filling it and then telling the game and fish you did. It’s a win win for everyone if they’re gonna inject money into our systems and not fill tags.
 
One can only hope so. Harvest success will go down, even if they lie on harvest surveys, buck to doe ratios or whatever metric we are using to make our management decisions will show the actual truth and we’ll be getting funding from a whole other source we weren’t before. After all, the best thing in most of our opinions for getting buck to doe ratios higher would be getting a tag, not filling it and then telling the game and fish you did. It’s a win win for everyone if they’re gonna inject money into our systems and not fill tags.
This is true. I think we aren’t giving them enough credit in impacting the odds.
 

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