Will you ever draw

joesikora

Very Active Member
Messages
2,671
Is there any math people on here that can answer this question about the UT draw?
Now I know every year people with low to no points draw tags and that’s very cool!
Below is my list of points for UT. I thought about this the other day and the problem that I see is with me turning 61 the 4th of September realistically the odds of me drawing more then one of the tags I have points for is almost impossible!
Is there some formula you math guys/gals can give some info to this question?
Now I have been very lucky drawing tags in other states. I’d like to thank the person on here that talked me into staying in the AZ draw because I had missed several years because I was boycotting AZ and I was going to quit drawing and then I drew the early rifle hunt in 22 north I think with only 9 points and it was my second choice so thanks my friend! So really I have no complaints what so ever about not drawing UT. It’s just fun waiting to see if you get that email that says SUCCESFULL!
I know that UT G&F would never do this, but allow you to Will your Points to a family member. I know that would be tough to do because I’m sure the cost of trying to make sure everything is on the up and up and your not selling the points to non family members. i talked with a MM that said he was using math to help in the draw process.
Anyway just something fun to think about LOL!

Limited-entry Buck Deer
10
2021


2022

Limited-entry Buck Pronghorn
8
2021


2022

Limited-entry Bull Elk
17
2021


2022

Desert Bighorn Sheep
15
2021


2022

Rocky Mountain Bighorn Sheep
13
2021


2022

Bison
13
2021


2022

Mountain Goat
10
2021


2022
 
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idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
The math is the math. And unless you're a hacker there is no way to change the odds. But there are hunts that will be more "drawable" that others. At 61 let say you have 19 years of hunting left. Let's also assume you're putting in for just deer and elk LE, since the odds on once in life are prohibitively worse.

If you're putting with 20% draw odds for both species your odd of drawing at least 1 tag is 99.999%.

If you're putting in with 10% odds your odds of drawing at least one tag is 98.78%.

At 5% odds of drawing at least one is 85.7%.

At 1% odds of drawing at least one is 31.7%.

At 1/3984(NR) draw odds(assuming you aren't in the max points 50%) which was Henry mountains any weapon deer last year, you'd have a 0.48% chance of drawing at least once in the next 19 years.

Of course this all assumes the pool of hunters doesn't get bigger and the number of tags stays the same. Not necessarily good assumptions. The effect of your points are minimal unless you're max points. Pick draw odds 1% or better and you probably have a good chance to go hunting. Also remember true odds in Utah are about half the published odds because half of the permits are reserved for the people with max bonus points.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"Need to figure the odds of not drawing to get a true sight on odds of drawing at least 1 tag."

This is what I did. Calculating the odds of drawing exactly one tag is prohibitively harder than calculation the odds of drawing at least one and doesn't add much to the overall interpretation of outcomes.
 

LIK2HNT

Very Active Member
Messages
1,573
“If you're putting with 20% draw odds for both species your odd of drawing at least 1 tag is 99.999%.”

How did you get almost a 100% chance to draw a tag when they were both 20% each? 😎😎
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
“If you're putting with 20% draw odds for both species your odd of drawing at least 1 tag is 99.999%.”

How did you get almost a 100% chance to draw a tag when they were both 20% each? 😎😎
It's over the course of 19 years drawing at 2 tags that's 38 chances. think about rolling a die(17% on each outcome). Try to roll a die 38 times without hitting any individual number once.
 

LIK2HNT

Very Active Member
Messages
1,573
Sorry, I just quickly looked through your first post and did not realize you were doing odds for 19 years.

I have a multiple page excel spreadsheet I do annually for my odds of a tag each year.
 

WyomingMark

New Member
Messages
3
Utah's draw odds are totally misleading. The published odds are based on the humans in the application pool, which makes some sense because the tag is awarded to an actual human. BUT the real draw odds are not based on the humans in the pool they are based on the number of chances (bonus points plus current year application) each applicant has in the pool.

Using the 2021 West Desert, Vernon (any legal weapon) as an example;
1648760436443.png

The published odds are 1 in 51. Assuming you are not a maximum point holder (who got 6 of the 12 tags) you might assume your odds or about 1 in 100 (6 tags and 606 remaining applicants.

But that calculation is based on the humans in the pool. The real odds are based on the total chances of ALL the remaining applicants. For example, an applicant with 17 points had 18 chances (17 bonus points plus their 2021 application) to draw one of the 6 regular tags. Thus the 9 individuals with 17 points created 162 draw chances (9*17+9), if you do this for every point holder group you end up with 3648 chances and true odds of 1 out of 3648 for EACH CHANCE you have in the drawing. For someone with 0 bonus points their odds were 1 in 3648 for someone with 9 points their odds were 1 in 364.

The published odds create the impression of about a 2% chance of drawing but the no one in the regular draw pool had individual odds better than .02% or 1 in 200.
 

buckhorn

Very Active Member
Messages
2,363
Utah's draw odds are totally misleading. The published odds are based on the humans in the application pool, which makes some sense because the tag is awarded to an actual human. BUT the real draw odds are not based on the humans in the pool they are based on the number of chances (bonus points plus current year application) each applicant has in the pool.

Using the 2021 West Desert, Vernon (any legal weapon) as an example;
View attachment 72984
The published odds are 1 in 51. Assuming you are not a maximum point holder (who got 6 of the 12 tags) you might assume your odds or about 1 in 100 (6 tags and 606 remaining applicants.

But that calculation is based on the humans in the pool. The real odds are based on the total chances of ALL the remaining applicants. For example, an applicant with 17 points had 18 chances (17 bonus points plus their 2021 application) to draw one of the 6 regular tags. Thus the 9 individuals with 17 points created 162 draw chances (9*17+9), if you do this for every point holder group you end up with 3648 chances and true odds of 1 out of 3648 for EACH CHANCE you have in the drawing. For someone with 0 bonus points their odds were 1 in 3648 for someone with 9 points their odds were 1 in 364.

The published odds create the impression of about a 2% chance of drawing but the no one in the regular draw pool had individual odds better than .02% or 1 in 200.
Good post!
You are one of the few people that really understands the true draw odds!
 

elkfromabove

Very Active Member
Messages
1,788
Utah's draw odds are totally misleading. The published odds are based on the humans in the application pool, which makes some sense because the tag is awarded to an actual human. BUT the real draw odds are not based on the humans in the pool they are based on the number of chances (bonus points plus current year application) each applicant has in the pool.

Using the 2021 West Desert, Vernon (any legal weapon) as an example;
View attachment 72984
The published odds are 1 in 51. Assuming you are not a maximum point holder (who got 6 of the 12 tags) you might assume your odds or about 1 in 100 (6 tags and 606 remaining applicants.

But that calculation is based on the humans in the pool. The real odds are based on the total chances of ALL the remaining applicants. For example, an applicant with 17 points had 18 chances (17 bonus points plus their 2021 application) to draw one of the 6 regular tags. Thus the 9 individuals with 17 points created 162 draw chances (9*17+9), if you do this for every point holder group you end up with 3648 chances and true odds of 1 out of 3648 for EACH CHANCE you have in the drawing. For someone with 0 bonus points their odds were 1 in 3648 for someone with 9 points their odds were 1 in 364.

The published odds create the impression of about a 2% chance of drawing but the no one in the regular draw pool had individual odds better than .02% or 1 in 200.
That's .5% or 1 in 200. Still not much.
 

Bigfoot 1

Very Active Member
Messages
1,333
The math is the math. And unless you're a hacker there is no way to change the odds. But there are hunts that will be more "drawable" that others. At 61 let say you have 19 years of hunting left. Let's also assume you're putting in for just deer and elk LE, since the odds on once in life are prohibitively worse.

If you're putting with 20% draw odds for both species your odd of drawing at least 1 tag is 99.999%.

If you're putting in with 10% odds your odds of drawing at least one tag is 98.78%.

At 5% odds of drawing at least one is 85.7%.

At 1% odds of drawing at least one is 31.7%.

At 1/3984(NR) draw odds(assuming you aren't in the max points 50%) which was Henry mountains any weapon deer last year, you'd have a 0.48% chance of drawing at least once in the next 19 years.

Of course this all assumes the pool of hunters doesn't get bigger and the number of tags stays the same. Not necessarily good assumptions. The effect of your points are minimal unless you're max points. Pick draw odds 1% or better and you probably have a good chance to go hunting. Also remember true odds in Utah are about half the published odds because half of the permits are reserved for the people with max bonus points.
I believe the odds of hunting at the age of 80 are much lower than any of those odds you listed above. I wish my best for all of you and hope you can hunt at 100, I know I won’t make it to 80 for sure.
 

smokepolejohnson

Active Member
Messages
938
Is there any math people on here that can answer this question about the UT draw?…….. Great question…
It’s a difficult yet humbling and as well as daunting task to stay up with the Utah percentages and the numbers for the highly sought after tags. This is a must read if your a numbers crunchers as myself. Best of luck to all in this years draws.

2B4609E7-06B0-4446-81B2-3E6D06B714FC.jpeg
 

Tristate

Long Time Member
Messages
7,460
I have always found it amusing how Utah posts the draw odds. I haven't been applying into their draw forever but ever since I have I have calculated the draw odds myself on units that I am thinking about applying for. Somebody at their office doesn't know how to calculate odds or doesn't take the time to do it correctly.
 

bucks

Active Member
Messages
206
Its not just Utah its most western states,Look at Arizonia,Nevada,
colorado Wyoming,Hunting sure as He!! ant what it used to be,Sad but reality.

More demand that supply!
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
In AZ...the "odds" for drawing a tag in specific unit & the "odds" for drawing a low number in regard to BPs are two different issues. The numbers are doled out at the same time for each phase of the drawing to everyone who applies for a tag. The "odds" for each unit depend on how many tags there are vs. the number of applicants for that unit.
 
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idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
I might be mistaken but I think Utah has a draw sequence and you can't get drawn for a permit lower in the order if you are drawn for a higher one. I.E. if you draw deer you can't draw elk or one in a lifetime species. So not only is there a dynamic for each permit but there is a statistical interaction between species as well. Makes for a very complex system. You may be able to extract some small edge as a resident by choosing to forego certain species in hopes higher point entries exit the pool before they get to the species you want. Given the long odds on NR hunts it's hard to imagine this would matter at all.
 

elkhunterUT

Very Active Member
Messages
1,818
I might be mistaken but I think Utah has a draw sequence and you can't get drawn for a permit lower in the order if you are drawn for a higher one. I.E. if you draw deer you can't draw elk or one in a lifetime species. So not only is there a dynamic for each permit but there is a statistical interaction between species as well. Makes for a very complex system. You may be able to extract some small edge as a resident by choosing to forego certain species in hopes higher point entries exit the pool before they get to the species you want. Given the long odds on NR hunts it's hard to imagine this would matter at all.
You are correct - Utah has a specific draw order. As an example, If you draw LE Deer, you are automatically removed from consideration for the OIL hunts.

Here is the specific info directly from the application guidebook:

Understand the drawing order Utah Admin. Rule R657-62-18
A better understanding of the drawing order may affect which permits you decide to apply for. Big game permits are drawn in the following order:

•First—Buck deer (all limited-entry permits)
•Second—Bull elk (all limited-entry permits)
•Third—Buck pronghorn (all limitedentry permits)
•Fourth—Once-in-a-lifetime permits
•Fifth—General buck deer (Lifetime License holders)
•Sixth—General buck deer (Dedicated Hunters)
•Seventh—General buck deer (youth)
•Eighth—General buck deer
•Last—Youth any bull elk

Because of the order in which permits are drawn, you will not be included in the drawing for a once-in-a-lifetime permit if you draw any of the following permits:
•Buck deer (any limited-entry permit)
•Bull elk (any limited-entry permit)
•Buck pronghorn (any limited-entry permit)
 

Utah400Elk

Very Active Member
Messages
1,152
For what it’s worth…

Almost every state I have ever applied for has found a way to tell me “NO” until they had no choice. Basically, I don’t expect anything until I am in the bonus point pass pool. I still apply to 6 states but also buy lotto tickets. In all reality you might have better odds at raffle tickets then UT OIL tags. Deer and elk…depending on you unit choices, you should be able to draw if you look at archery or muzzleloader.

Good luck to everybody this year in the draws.
 

joesikora

Very Active Member
Messages
2,671
For what it’s worth…

Almost every state I have ever applied for has found a way to tell me “NO” until they had no choice. Basically, I don’t expect anything until I am in the bonus point pass pool. I still apply to 6 states but also buy lotto tickets. In all reality you might have better odds at raffle tickets then UT OIL tags. Deer and elk…depending on you unit choices, you should be able to draw if you look at archery or muzzleloader.

Good luck to everybody this year in the draws.
Good luck to you as well!
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
For what it’s worth…

Almost every state I have ever applied for has found a way to tell me “NO” until they had no choice. Basically, I don’t expect anything until I am in the bonus point pass pool. I still apply to 6 states but also buy lotto tickets. In all reality you might have better odds at raffle tickets then UT OIL tags. Deer and elk…depending on you unit choices, you should be able to draw if you look at archery or muzzleloader.

Good luck to everybody this year in the draws.
A bunch of raffles out there cap the tickets. Entry is often less than the nonrefundable costs of entry in most states. Not a bad option but still a long shot.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
Of all the draw systems with points, UT's seems to be the best. It awards those [few] who have applied the longest. It gives an equal chance to everyone within a max point pool grouping. It gives an equal opportunity to the random tags after the max pool allocation/draw is done.

The "odds" published are pseudo-odds. The odds really only apply for max point pools and not the 50% remaining random. What they publish there is the allocation of who in what point group drew a tag, it doesn't represent a real probability.
 

txhunter58

Long Time Member
Messages
7,721
I can tell you what would dramatically increase your odds immediately If you were a nonresident. All they would have to do is not allow you to apply for more than one species TAG each year. We get sucked into the illusion that because we can apply for all species we have better odds. But actually we have worse odds of drawing “A” tag

If they allowed you to apply for a single tag each year, and a bonus point for all other species, your odds for the tag you put in for would double or triple. And you would get a max point tag MUCH sooner. Because each person would have to choose a species, that would lower the number you are competing against for your chosen species tag.

And remember, as stated above, you can actually only draw one tag anyway. So you are really only applying hoping to get a tag, but your odds are crap because everyone applies for everything.

That’s way residents can only apply for a single species. Because they know their odds of drawing would drop dramatically under the NR system.

Why do they allow us to apply for all species?? No question it is money. They don’t give us any more tags but make a H!11 of a lot more money.

They could have their cake and eat it too if they would allow us to apply for a single tag but still apply for bonus points for other species. They make the same money and our odds rise dramictixally.
 

Bluehair

Long Time Member
Messages
5,754
Unless they purge the dead guys points, it’s all a guess. They hang around for what, 10 years? in Colorado.
 

excaliber

Active Member
Messages
384
Utah is the one state I recently gave up on. I would never get in the bonus pass pool/max pool and with only 1 tag available to us NR in most of the Elk units.
I decided to just bail on the system.

Utah is without a doubt the worst state for NR hunters trying to draw an excellent tag.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
No it's Idaho's. NM lets you able for multiple species with no points. Oddly, or not, Idaho has the best draw odds in the west.

I was talking about resident's odds drop dramatically because you can put in for more than one species, exact opposite effect as the NR in your state. And NM too I suppose.
 

SanPitch

Active Member
Messages
198
Utah's draw odds are totally misleading. The published odds are based on the humans in the application pool, which makes some sense because the tag is awarded to an actual human. BUT the real draw odds are not based on the humans in the pool they are based on the number of chances (bonus points plus current year application) each applicant has in the pool.

Using the 2021 West Desert, Vernon (any legal weapon) as an example;
View attachment 72984
The published odds are 1 in 51. Assuming you are not a maximum point holder (who got 6 of the 12 tags) you might assume your odds or about 1 in 100 (6 tags and 606 remaining applicants.

But that calculation is based on the humans in the pool. The real odds are based on the total chances of ALL the remaining applicants. For example, an applicant with 17 points had 18 chances (17 bonus points plus their 2021 application) to draw one of the 6 regular tags. Thus the 9 individuals with 17 points created 162 draw chances (9*17+9), if you do this for every point holder group you end up with 3648 chances and true odds of 1 out of 3648 for EACH CHANCE you have in the drawing. For someone with 0 bonus points their odds were 1 in 3648 for someone with 9 points their odds were 1 in 364.

The published odds create the impression of about a 2% chance of drawing but the no one in the regular draw pool had individual odds better than .02% or 1 in 200.
You sure that’s the Vernon results pictured there? Last I checked there was a lot more then 12 tags
 

eyeman

Active Member
Messages
130
I think it is still a true lottery.
I dont know how but about 4 years ago I drew a LE Panguitch Bull Tag with 4 nonres points.
Maybe someone could speculate how that happened.
Im not expecting another LE tag but who knows.
 

legacy

Very Active Member
Messages
1,943
I'm a Utah resident.
I feel like I'm in no-mans land with 20 moose points. I feel like there's a possibility I'll never draw before I'm dead.
I have 19 deer points so I feel a tad better about that. My wife drew the deer tag I'm trying to draw with just 11 points (a couple of years ago). So there's that chance in the random draw that you stand a chance of drawing.
My dad has max deer points in Wyoming and can't hunt. Looks like that opens up an opportunity for a deer tag again there for myself.

Like has been mentioned, the published draw odds are a little deceptive and don't give the entire picture. I think it's pretty difficult to come up with an actual draw odd because of all of the variables. For me, it is what it is. I have my units I apply for and just stay the course for the most part. I can't control the variables and I've accepted that.
 

legacy

Very Active Member
Messages
1,943
I think it is still a true lottery.
I dont know how but about 4 years ago I drew a LE Panguitch Bull Tag with 4 nonres points.
Maybe someone could speculate how that happened.
Im not expecting another LE tag but who knows.

With only 1 nonresident tag, the draw becomes completely random. Your odds do increase the more bonus points that you have, but at the end of the day, its completely random. So anyone with any amount of points has a chance of drawing. You literally won the lottery.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
I think it is still a true lottery.
I dont know how but about 4 years ago I drew a LE Panguitch Bull Tag with 4 nonres points.
Maybe someone could speculate how that happened.
Im not expecting another LE tag but who knows.

It's because the only thing your points do for you on the random portion of the remaining 50% of the tags is gives you the opportunity to get a "better" draw number. Your name was not in the hat 5 times (4 points plus the year you applied). You didn't have the equivalent of 5 applications going into the draw. You had 5 chances to get a good draw sequence number which is why you pulled the tag.
 

buckhorn

Very Active Member
Messages
2,363
It's because the only thing your points do for you on the random portion of the remaining 50% of the tags is gives you the opportunity to get a "better" draw number. Your name was not in the hat 5 times (4 points plus the year you applied). You didn't have the equivalent of 5 applications going into the draw. You had 5 chances to get a good draw sequence number which is why you pulled the tag.
So in the random portion does the draw actually occur when the computer generates the random numbers?

Which brings up my next question.

Are the random numbers generated separately for each hunt code Or are all applicants given their random number before any hunt choices are looked at?
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
So in the random portion does the draw actually occur when the computer generates the random numbers?

Which brings up my next question.

Are the random numbers generated separately for each hunt code Or are all applicants given their random number before any hunt choices are looked at?

Don't know. My guess would be for the hunt code. Don't know if anyone else has it as messed up as NM does with the way they do it.
 

joesikora

Very Active Member
Messages
2,671
So You do not like NM Draw?
Heck I think they have the best draw system out there
But I’ve drawn tags on a regular basis
I drew 5 tags in 4 years and one was the Sargents Wildlife Area early rifle hunt Elk Hunt
I also drew the last time I applied in 2017 for Archery Elk
NM is where I went on my first ever elk hunt it was guided by USO I killed out opening morning @7:30am on the Cottonwood Ranch which was just above the PHILMONT it’s called something else the last time I checked.
 

elkfromabove

Very Active Member
Messages
1,788
So in the random portion does the draw actually occur when the computer generates the random numbers?

Which brings up my next question.

Are the random numbers generated separately for each hunt code Or are all applicants given their random number before any hunt choices are looked at?
Per the DWR Contract with the Fallon Nevada company, Systems Consultants, I see that,

(1) For the bonus point random draw portion, the computer assigns/draws each applicant (or group) a random number for each bonus point and another for the application, but keeps only the lowest number. This is done BEFORE any of the hunts are evaluated and that low number follows your application throughout the LE and OIL hunt evaluations.

(2) Then the applications are separated into Resident and Non-resident for separate evaluations.

(3) Then, beginning with the lowest number and continuing in sequence, the first choice for a hunt is considered. If a permit is available for the hunt of 1st choice, the permit is awarded. If a permit is not available for the hunt of 1st choice, the application is skipped and the first choice of the next application is considered. After ALL 1st choices are considered, the second choices are considered in the same manner, application by application, starting with the lowest remaining number.

(4) If any permits remain after all choices have been evaluated, the Resident and Non-resident are pooled together for a second complete draw/evaluation until ALL available draw permits are awarded.

There's more detail to it, but I think that answers your questions about the LE and OIL draws.
 

Bigfoot 1

Very Active Member
Messages
1,333
So You do not like NM Draw?
Heck I think they have the best draw system out there
But I’ve drawn tags on a regular basis
I drew 5 tags in 4 years and one was the Sargents Wildlife Area early rifle hunt Elk Hunt
I also drew the last time I applied in 2017 for Archery Elk
NM is where I went on my first ever elk hunt it was guided by USO I killed out opening morning @7:30am on the Cottonwood Ranch which was just above the PHILMONT it’s called something else the last time I checked.
You are correct, NM has the best thing going right now.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
So You do not like NM Draw?
Heck I think they have the best draw system out there
But I’ve drawn tags on a regular basis
I drew 5 tags in 4 years and one was the Sargents Wildlife Area early rifle hunt Elk Hunt
I also drew the last time I applied in 2017 for Archery Elk
NM is where I went on my first ever elk hunt it was guided by USO I killed out opening morning @7:30am on the Cottonwood Ranch which was just above the PHILMONT it’s called something else the last time I checked.

I think NM's draw system could use some work...
 

Bigfoot 1

Very Active Member
Messages
1,333
Agreed. I think every draw system and every management system could use some work. We can all agree that their is no perfect system, and there never will be….
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
It's because the only thing your points do for you on the random portion of the remaining 50% of the tags is gives you the opportunity to get a "better" draw number. Your name was not in the hat 5 times (4 points plus the year you applied). You didn't have the equivalent of 5 applications going into the draw. You had 5 chances to get a good draw sequence number which is why you pulled the tag.
This is wrong. As stated in above you get assigned 5 random numbers. Which is no different mathematically than having 5 balls in lotto bin or 5 tickets in a raffle. Of course you can't win more than once so only the first one drawn matters. In theory a person with 5 points could be all 5 of the first 5 numbers evaluated.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
This is wrong. As stated in above you get assigned 5 random numbers. Which is no different mathematically than having 5 balls in lotto bin or 5 tickets in a raffle. Of course you can't win more than once so only the first one drawn matters. In theory a person with 5 points could be all 5 of the first 5 numbers evaluated.

You get a random number for each species and for each bonus point. They use the best one, not all of them at once. More bonus points gives you the opportunity for a better random number.

Being the first 5 in a row is irrelevant because you can only pull one tag. If your numbers are 200, 501, 305, 415, and 547 - guess what, they'll use number 200...
 
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idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
1) For the bonus point random draw portion, the computer assigns/draws each applicant (or group) a random number for each bonus point and another for the application
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
Then, beginning with the lowest number and continuing in sequence, the first choice for a hunt is considered. If a permit is available for the hunt of 1st choice, the permit is awarded. If a permit is not available for the hunt of 1st choice, the application is skipped and the first choice of the next application is considered. After ALL 1st choices are considered, the second choices are considered in the same manner, application by application, starting with the lowest remaining number.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
I think it is still a true lottery.
I dont know how but about 4 years ago I drew a LE Panguitch Bull Tag with 4 nonres points.
Maybe someone could speculate how that happened.
Im not expecting another LE tag but who knows.
Your odds that year with 5 numbers were 1/270. Long odds but considering 10k people applied across Utah, someone was going to draw from the bottom of the point distribution, congrats.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
I edited my post above. Reread it.
You're correct in the sense the additional numbers are irrelevant to the evaluation process. They are not irrelevant to your draw odds. The top person in that draw was 20 points. His odds were 1.6% compared to eyeman's 0.36% with 4 points. This thread is "will you ever draw", so there's the difference 16 years worth of points makes.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
To circle back on the topic of the thread is you use eyeman's distribution from the 2017 hunt and assume it stay's the same. Not a good assumption, but it's hard to guess what creep might do. You have about a 15% chance to draw if you put in every year for 20 years. To throw some fuel on these fires. The odds to draw at least once in 20 years if the pool of NR applicant stays at 240 and you conducted a random draw is 8%. Again if you get point creep that's all worthless.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
You're correct in the sense the additional numbers are irrelevant to the evaluation process. They are not irrelevant to your draw odds. The top person in that draw was 20 points. His odds were 1.6% compared to eyeman's 0.36% with 4 points. This thread is "will you ever draw", so there's the difference 16 years worth of points makes.

The other higher random numbers aren't even looked at so it's not the same as all the numbers being in the pool.

For max point holders, each in that point holder group gets one random number for the draw for that pool only. If there are 10 tags for the 50% of max point holders in a max point pool of 20 points and 20 applicants with those 20 points apply for those 10 tags, there are only 20 random numbers competing for those 10 tags, so there odds are 50% for that 20 point pool only.

The remaining 50%, or 10 tags, would be open season for everyone else, with their best random number competing for one of the remaining 10 tags. A guy with zero points may very well be the first in line, but his odds are the same as everyone else once they have their random numbers assigned and the best one selected.

Draw histories show nearly an even split between lower point holders and higher point holders drawing the 50% remaining tags which suggest equal odds after the random numbers are applied.
 

txhunter58

Long Time Member
Messages
7,721
It's because the only thing your points do for you on the random portion of the remaining 50% of the tags is gives you the opportunity to get a "better" draw number. Your name was not in the hat 5 times (4 points plus the year you applied). You didn't have the equivalent of 5 applications going into the draw. You had 5 chances to get a good draw sequence number which is why you pulled the tag.
Statistically, it is the same if you have 5 chances to get a better number, or 5 beans in the pot.

For the random draw, think of it this way: if there are 5 tags for a hunt. And all the bonus points plus 1 for this years application add up to total 100 “chances”. Let’s say you have 4 points +1 this year.

In Utah you have 5 chances to pull numbers 1-5. So you have 5% chance of drawing.

I’m another state with 5 beans in the pot: you still have 5 chances out of 100 to draw: 5%
 
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idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
If you're not a maximum point holder then that round of the draw isn't relevant to you.

"A guy with zero points may very well be the first in line, but his odds are the same as everyone else once they have their random numbers assigned and the best one selected."

This is 100% wrong. A guy with 0 points or 1 draw has less chance of being the lowest random number than the guy with 20 points or 21 draws. This exemplifies your flawed logic of only one number mattering. One number is evaluated, the number of points(draws) is reflective of your odds to be the lowest draw.

"Draw histories show nearly an even split between lower point holders and higher point holders drawing the 50% remaining tags which suggest equal odds after the random numbers are applied."

This is also wrong. Calculate the weighted average of the points(draws) in the drawing. For the resident portion of the hunt referenced from 2017. There were 5024 random numbers assigned to 916 hunters. The median of 2512 falls between 8 and 9 points. If you look there were 4 tag above and 2 below. Over time this should average to 3 and 3. But that isn't relevant to the question of what are my odds.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
Also creep will move that median number higher. You'd rather be on the upper side of that distribution because the number of draws are equal but there are fewer people on the upper half.

For this refenced hunt in the resident pool, ignoring the bonus draw. The distribution means 180 people get half the tags and 736 get the other half.
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
Statistically, it is the same if you have 5 chances to get a better number, or 5 beans in the pot.
Not quite.

In AZ...

Getting a low number is relative to the total numbers the computer spits out for ALL those applying for deer (or whatever.) The computer might generate a million numbers, but only one will be used per hunter, even if he had bps.

Drawing a tag is relative to how many applicants have put a specific hunt as their choice. Everyone has only one number, even in the bonus pass. The numbers are then reshuffled & reassigned for the next phase.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"The computer might generate a million numbers, but only one will be used per hunter, even if he had bps."

This is a distinction without a difference. Whether you assign numbers, purge all but the lowest, then evaluate tags; or if you assign a numbers then evaluate them conditional on eligibility to be issued a tag you get the same result. It's procedural, doesn't affect the outcome.

"Drawing a tag is relative to how many applicants have put a specific hunt as their choice. Everyone has only one number, even in the bonus pass."

This is wrong. Each person draws X numbers based on his points. And the points in the draw are the number of applicants multiplied by each applicants points, then summed. I think AZ squares points. Drawing a tag is relative to your points divided by the total points(draws) in the pool, not directly relative to the number of applicants.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
I'll jump back to the Panguitch hunt from 2021. The median moved from between 8 and 9 to being between 9 and 10. So you'd expect 264 people to get half the tags and 900 to get the other half. They broke 3 to 2 to the high pointers.
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
Outdoor: if you are saying the odds in my example are not both 5%, what are they?
That's way to over simplified. As I've stated it here before; the odds for getting a low number are different than the odds of drawing a permit. Do BPs help one's odds to get a permit? Of course, otherwise they would be worthless.

Again, I'm talking about AZ where I've dealt with this since BPs came into existence. Your mileage might vary with what goes on in other states.

Here's a nice breakdown on how Arizona's BP system works.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
The odds of getting a low number ARE the odds of getting a permit, conditioned on the rules of the draw. Think of it the context of before numbers are assigned and after. Before anyone has been assigned a number the odds of that number being in the lowest X numbers are determined by 2 things, the amount of numbers you will be issued and the amount of numbers issued in total. After the numbers are assigned the outcome is determinate, so whatever method each state uses to evaluate those numbers doesn't really matter, the order is already established. AZ draws three different times with three different sets of rules. Trying to view those three draws as one isn't appropriate. You'll have different odds in each pass dependent on the outcomes of the previous passes. But having more draws will always improve your chances of having a lower number.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
If you're not a maximum point holder then that round of the draw isn't relevant to you.

"A guy with zero points may very well be the first in line, but his odds are the same as everyone else once they have their random numbers assigned and the best one selected."

This is 100% wrong. A guy with 0 points or 1 draw has less chance of being the lowest random number than the guy with 20 points or 21 draws. This exemplifies your flawed logic of only one number mattering. One number is evaluated, the number of points(draws) is reflective of your odds to be the lowest draw.

"Draw histories show nearly an even split between lower point holders and higher point holders drawing the 50% remaining tags which suggest equal odds after the random numbers are applied."

This is also wrong. Calculate the weighted average of the points(draws) in the drawing. For the resident portion of the hunt referenced from 2017. There were 5024 random numbers assigned to 916 hunters. The median of 2512 falls between 8 and 9 points. If you look there were 4 tag above and 2 below. Over time this should average to 3 and 3. But that isn't relevant to the question of what are my odds.

You're not thinking this through all the way. Bonus points increase your odds. They increase your odds because it gives more opportunity to get that one random number that matters. Once all the random numbers are assigned, the chips fall where they may.

If there are 10 tags available for the random, and a total of 1000 random numbers available to be assigned because of the tally of bonus points and applicants from 1 to 15 (or however many there are) from 200 total applicants, everyone will get one of those random numbers as their lowest number. That one lowest number is the only number that even matters. None of the others do. An applicant with 10 points doesn't get a chance to pull a tag out of the box of 10 until he gets his best number out of 1000 total possible.

An applicant with 15 points will have a 15:1000 chance of pulling the best lowest number for them. Another with 2 points will have a 2:1000 chance of pulling the best lowest number for them. Each time a best lowest number is assigned, it takes it out of the random number pool for someone else.

Once these best lowest numbers are assigned, each applicant has a 10:200 chance that their lowest number was the highest ranking for one of the 10 tags.

In the case for how UT does their draw, sample size (your bonus points) help. For a state like NM, sample size kills your chances.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
Statistically, it is the same if you have 5 chances to get a better number, or 5 beans in the pot.

For the random draw, think of it this way: if there are 5 tags for a hunt. And all the bonus points plus 1 for this years application add up to total 100 “chances”. Let’s say you have 4 points +1 this year.

In Utah you have 5 chances to pull numbers 1-5. So you have 5% chance of drawing.

I’m another state with 5 beans in the pot: you still have 5 chances out of 100 to draw: 5%

No, an applicant with 15 points standing in the front of the line doesn't get to pull 15 beans out of the pot at once hoping one is marked "tag" before moving to the next guy behind him.

He gets to pull 15 beans from the pot, but only gets to keep the one with the lowest number written on it. The guy behind him does the same with how ever many times he gets to try until every one is holding one bean.

Then they either get to pull a bean one time based on where they are in line until all the beans marked with "tag" are drawn, or, the lowest numbers are called out and these people walk up to the stage and collect their tag...
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
The odds of getting a low number ARE the odds of getting a permit, conditioned on the rules of the draw. Think of it the context of before numbers are assigned and after. Before anyone has been assigned a number the odds of that number being in the lowest X numbers are determined by 2 things, the amount of numbers you will be issued and the amount of numbers issued in total. After the numbers are assigned the outcome is determinate, so whatever method each state uses to evaluate those numbers doesn't really matter, the order is already established. AZ draws three different times with three different sets of rules. Trying to view those three draws as one isn't appropriate. You'll have different odds in each pass dependent on the outcomes of the previous passes. But having more draws will always improve your chances of having a lower number.
Believe as you wish. I can't comment on what happens in Utah. I'm somewhat familiar with AZ's system, however. :rolleyes:
 

wweaver79

Active Member
Messages
328
I just want to get one of the toughest elk tags in the west next year after I do another states limited draw hunt this fall.
Idaho limited OTC Elk.
What other tag do you have to take four hours vacation to ensure you can sit with your phone logged in only to have 2000 people in front of you when your easy to buy tag shows up as sold out. I am a bit sarcastic but not totally. I did get manage to get a good whitetail tag, oh wait, who cares.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"An applicant with 10 points doesn't get a chance to pull a tag out of the box of 10 until he gets his best number out of 1000 total possible."

Yes he does get to do exactly this. If you have 10 draws you are assigned 10 numbers. Only one gets evaluated.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"Each time a best lowest number is assigned, it takes it out of the random number pool for someone else."

This is not how random number generators work. The numbers are either assigned as integers with a sufficiently large quantity to ensure no repeats or all real numbers in the set (0,1).
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"Once these best lowest numbers are assigned, each applicant has a 10:200 chance that their lowest number was the highest ranking for one of the 10 tags."

This is a post hoc calculation of your chances of a future event. This is akin to saying I received a tag in the mail therefore my draw odds were 100%. You don't know if you're in the top 200 before you get assigned your 10 random numbers. We're interested in the probability of an event that hasn't happened yet.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
Don't you find it interesting that if you find where the median of the total number of draws is in relation to bonus points, you get almost exactly 50% of the tags on each side of the line? Apparently I don't know what I'm doing but my math predicts the outcome. Luck I guess.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"He gets to pull 15 beans from the pot, but only gets to keep the one with the lowest number written on it. The guy behind him does the same with how ever many times he gets to try until every one is holding one bean.

Then they either get to pull a bean one time based on where they are in line until all the beans marked with "tag" are drawn, or, the lowest numbers are called out and these people walk up to the stage and collect their tag..."

You are describing an event with two draws. This does not happen.

1)Calculate the draw odds based on the number of beans to be pulled form a basket of X beans, as well as conditions imposed on the draw(NR limits, Bonus passes etc)
2)Everyone pulls numbered beans equaling their points.
3)Everyone gets in line based on the order of the number on each persons lowest bean.
4)Evaluate who is eligible to receive a tag based on the conditions of the draw.
5) If in AZ repeat 2 more times

Calculating odds is the first step not the last.
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
Calculating odds is the first step not the last.
Hypothetical...

There are 45,500 permits available for deer in AZ. About 122,000 residents & NRs apply for one. Joe Sixpack, with five bps is one of them. He applied for five different hunts on his app. The first two have fewer than 50 permits for each hunt. What are his odds to draw a permit for either of those or any other hunt?
 
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idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
Hypothetical...

There are 45,500 permits available for deer in AZ. About 122,000 residents & NRs apply for one. Joe Sixpack, with five bps is one of them. He applied for five different hunts on his app. The first two have fewer than 50 permits for each hunt. What are his odds to draw a permit for either of those or any other hunt?
It depends on which hunt you want apply for.
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
I'm sorry but you don't understand. Those 122,000 applicants get lined up by their lowest drawn number. Which tags they do or don't get depends on which hunts each person put in for. Not how many tags are in a hunt. Two hunts can have 50 tags and wildly different draw odds.
I just told you what hunts he applied for.

This is what YOU said:

1)Calculate the draw odds based on the number of beans to be pulled form a basket of X beans, as well as conditions imposed on the draw(NR limits, Bonus passes etc)
2)Everyone pulls numbered beans equaling their points.
3)Everyone gets in line based on the order of the number on each persons lowest bean.
4)Evaluate who is eligible to receive a tag based on the conditions of the draw.
5) If in AZ repeat 2 more times

Calculating odds is the first step not the last.
 

roadrunner

Long Time Member
Messages
4,230
"He gets to pull 15 beans from the pot, but only gets to keep the one with the lowest number written on it. The guy behind him does the same with how ever many times he gets to try until every one is holding one bean.

Then they either get to pull a bean one time based on where they are in line until all the beans marked with "tag" are drawn, or, the lowest numbers are called out and these people walk up to the stage and collect their tag..."

You are describing an event with two draws. This does not happen.

1)Calculate the draw odds based on the number of beans to be pulled form a basket of X beans, as well as conditions imposed on the draw(NR limits, Bonus passes etc)
2)Everyone pulls numbered beans equaling their points.
3)Everyone gets in line based on the order of the number on each persons lowest bean.
4)Evaluate who is eligible to receive a tag based on the conditions of the draw.
5) If in AZ repeat 2 more times

Calculating odds is the first step not the last.

You're overthinking this and getting wrapped up in numbers that don't mean what you think they mean...

R657-62-8. Bonus Points.

Don't you find it interesting that if you find where the median of the total number of draws is in relation to bonus points, you get almost exactly 50% of the tags on each side of the line? Apparently I don't know what I'm doing but my math predicts the outcome. Luck I guess.

The data just shows the distribution of what happened, not what is happening...

This is not how random number generators work. The numbers are either assigned as integers with a sufficiently large quantity to ensure no repeats or all real numbers in the set (0,1).

Yes, I've built random number generator (programs) before and you put in limits of operation, upper and lower. Regardless of the spread, once a number is assigned, it's out of the sequence. You still have to have an 'if/then' statement in there.
:rolleyes:
"An applicant with 10 points doesn't get a chance to pull a tag out of the box of 10 until he gets his best number out of 1000 total possible."

Yes he does get to do exactly this. If you have 10 draws you are assigned 10 numbers. Only one gets evaluated.

:rolleyes:

"Once these best lowest numbers are assigned, each applicant has a 10:200 chance that their lowest number was the highest ranking for one of the 10 tags."

This is a post hoc calculation of your chances of a future event. This is akin to saying I received a tag in the mail therefore my draw odds were 100%. You don't know if you're in the top 200 before you get assigned your 10 random numbers. We're interested in the probability of an event that hasn't happened yet.

There were only 200 "applicants". Never said anything about being in the top before random numbers were assigned. You can't predict a true probability when a random variable is thrown in. A probability only exists with controlled inputs. 10 blue marbles, 90 white marbles. For every blue marble you choose, there is a greater chance a white marble will be chosen instead.

All you can do is say yes, the more bonus points I have, the better my chances of getting a better random number. But that chance isn't any better than someone else with the same number of points. The fewer points, the lower the chance but only compared to someone with more points. You cannot predict what those chances are. The higher the sample size for the random number, the lower the chances with the fewest points. And that's all.

The data only shows how tags are normally distributed, or how they have been distributed. You can calculate all day long based on those known inputs and come up with a "hey, I've got a 5% chance of pulling the tag with 15 points" and say that every year with an additional point until you're 6 feet under.

The data doesn't necessarily reflect what will actually happen because of too many unknowns. The only ones that can say with any certainty are the first 50% in the max point pools because they only get one number one time instead "X"...
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
How does one apply for a hunt without selecting a hunt? I've been doin this a while and have always had to select a hunt. You're correct I didn't specify a hunt needed to be selected. I'm going to assume if you don't select a hunt AZ won't put you in the draw. Please excuse me for taking anything as given.
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
I'm sorry but you don't understand. Those 122,000 applicants get lined up by their lowest drawn number. Which tags they do or don't get depends on which hunts each person put in for. Not how many tags are in a hunt. Two hunts can have 50 tags and wildly different draw odds.
You've repeatedly said that the odds have nothing to do with how many apply for a specific hunt or how many permits there are.
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
How does one apply for a hunt without selecting a hunt? I've been doin this a while and have always had to select a hunt. You're correct I didn't specify a hunt needed to be selected. I'm going to assume if you don't select a hunt AZ won't put you in the draw. Please excuse me for taking anything as given.
I gave you hunts!!!

One more time...his five hunt choices...
1. 40
2. 50
3. 550
4. 500
5. 650
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"The data only shows how tags are normally distributed, or how they have been distributed. You can calculate all day long based on those known inputs and come up with a "hey, I've got a 5% chance of pulling the tag with 15 points" and say that every year with an additional point until you're 6 feet under."


Isn't this the point of a thread titled "will you ever draw"?
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
No I haven't. The order of the draw has nothing to do with that. Numbers are assigned BEFORE applications are evaluated.
This is what YOU said:

1)Calculate the draw odds based on the number of beans to be pulled form a basket of X beans, as well as conditions imposed on the draw(NR limits, Bonus passes etc)
2)Everyone pulls numbered beans equaling their points.
3)Everyone gets in line based on the order of the number on each persons lowest bean.
4)Evaluate who is eligible to receive a tag based on the conditions of the draw.
5) If in AZ repeat 2 more times

Calculating odds is the first step not the last.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
How does one apply for a hunt without selecting a hunt? I've been doin this a while and have always had to select a hunt. You're correct I didn't specify a hunt needed to be selected. I'm going to assume if you don't select a hunt AZ won't put you in the draw. This would make your odds zero. Please excuse me for taking anything as given.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"The data only shows how tags are normally distributed, or how they have been distributed."

They aren't normally distributed. The random numbers are normally distributed. The tags are distributed by the weighting of the points.
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
"The data only shows how tags are normally distributed, or how they have been distributed. You can calculate all day long based on those known inputs and come up with a "hey, I've got a 5% chance of pulling the tag with 15 points" and say that every year with an additional point until you're 6 feet under."


Isn't this the point of a thread titled "will you ever draw"?
My original reply in this thread...

In AZ...the "odds" for drawing a tag in specific unit & the "odds" for drawing a low number in regard to BPs are two different issues. The numbers are doled out at the same time for each phase of the drawing to everyone who applies for a tag. The "odds" for each unit depend on how many tags there are vs. the number of applicants for that unit.
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
I don't see any hunt numbers that look like that in AZ. Where is hunt 40? hunt 50? hunt 500? can I apply for those?
According to what you said, you don't need any other info. (see below) So what do the actual hunt numbers have to do with it? How will they change the guy's odds? According to what you said, you don't need any other info. (see below)

1)Calculate the draw odds based on the number of beans to be pulled form a basket of X beans, as well as conditions imposed on the draw(NR limits, Bonus passes etc)
2)Everyone pulls numbered beans equaling their points.
3)Everyone gets in line based on the order of the number on each persons lowest bean.
4)Evaluate who is eligible to receive a tag based on the conditions of the draw.
5) If in AZ repeat 2 more times

Calculating odds is the first step not the last.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
I said this:
"The order of the draw has nothing to do with that. Numbers are assigned BEFORE applications are evaluated."

Which is the same as:

"In AZ...the "odds" for drawing a tag in specific unit & the "odds" for drawing a low number in regard to BPs are two different issues. The numbers are doled out at the same time for each phase of the drawing to everyone who applies for a tag. The "odds" for each unit depend on how many tags there are vs. the number of applicants for that unit."
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
"In AZ...the "odds" for drawing a tag in specific unit & the "odds" for drawing a low number in regard to BPs are two different issues. The numbers are doled out at the same time for each phase of the drawing to everyone who applies for a tag. The "odds" for each unit depend on how many tags there are vs. the number of applicants for that unit."

IS THE SAME AS:

1)Calculate the draw odds based on the number of beans to be pulled form a basket of X beans, as well as conditions imposed on the draw(NR limits, Bonus passes etc)

2)Everyone pulls numbered beans equaling their points.
3)Everyone gets in line based on the order of the number on each persons lowest bean.
4)Evaluate who is eligible to receive a tag based on the conditions of the draw.
5) If in AZ repeat 2 more times
 

OutdoorWriter

Long Time Member
Messages
8,401
I said this:
"The order of the draw has nothing to do with that. Numbers are assigned BEFORE applications are evaluated."

Which is the same as:

"In AZ...the "odds" for drawing a tag in specific unit & the "odds" for drawing a low number in regard to BPs are two different issues. The numbers are doled out at the same time for each phase of the drawing to everyone who applies for a tag. The "odds" for each unit depend on how many tags there are vs. the number of applicants for that unit."
Right, the numbers have nothing to do with the draw odds. :rolleyes: Glad you agree.
 

idahomuleyhunter

Active Member
Messages
426
Back to Panguitch 2017 and normal distributions. A normal distribution would predict the median between 2 and 3. Thus half the tags should be to point groups 3 and less. But this isn't true. In fact 0 tags went to those groups.
 

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