Will you ever draw

idahomuleyhunter · Apr 7, 2022

OutdoorWriter said:
Right, the numbers have nothing to do with the draw odds. Glad you agree.

Your odds of getting a number lower than X are determined randomly by the number of total points plus applications of all applicants and the number of points plus applications you have.

Secondly you're odds of getting a permit are determined by the parameters of that permit.

It's not that hard

idahomuleyhunter · Apr 7, 2022

But again. My math predicts the outcomes so maybe it's wrong.

OutdoorWriter · Apr 7, 2022

idahomuleyhunter said:
"In AZ...the "odds" for drawing a tag in specific unit & the "odds" for drawing a low number in regard to BPs are two different issues. The numbers are doled out at the same time for each phase of the drawing to everyone who applies for a tag. The "odds" for each unit depend on how many tags there are vs. the number of applicants for that unit."

IS THE SAME AS:

1)Calculate the draw odds based on the number of beans to be pulled form a basket of X beans, as well as conditions imposed on the draw(NR limits, Bonus passes etc)
2)Everyone pulls numbered beans equaling their points.
3)Everyone gets in line based on the order of the number on each persons lowest bean.
4)Evaluate who is eligible to receive a tag based on the conditions of the draw.
5) If in AZ repeat 2 more times

They are nowhere NEAR the same. Now, I'm done. Time to do something productive like start dinner. Have a nice weekend.

idahomuleyhunter · Apr 7, 2022

I'll go ahead and finish your question for you. Let's say Joe Blow with five points picked 1004 and 1011. Because you seemed interested in hunts with under 50 tags. I'll ignore the 3rd pass because it's for less desired tags and AZ doesn't provide the data in Excel. Joe is a resident in my world. He has zero probability drawing the First pass. He has 5 points so he has (12075/12080)^8 chance of being in the top 8 multiplied by the risk that someone has 1004 as his second choice and doesn't get his first choice. This can be implied by the empirical odds 1/2797. Effectively zero so it doesn't changes Joes odds. Joe's chances are about 0.33% which oddly enough isn't the .5% publish by AZ. If Joe had 18 points this works out to 1.19%. I did neglect the effect of NR being removed, not hard to add in but again AZ doesn't provide excel.

OldMan2 · Apr 7, 2022

And…this is why we were taught the “new math”!
Ah ****, just remembered I don’t remember the “new math”. We’ll need to have Jethro cipher this one out.

roadrunner · Apr 7, 2022

idahomuleyhunter said:
"You can't predict a true probability when a random variable is thrown in"

Tell that to a casino.

Not the same thing. You're creating a data set that doesn't really exist and there is no weighted point system, unless you think more random numbers for one applicant is weighted.

At the end of the day, there will be one random number for each applicant based on a set of random numbers that will determine whether or not you get a tag. Those numbers will be arranged from lowest the highest, and the best will get the tag.

idahomuleyhunter said:
Back to Panguitch 2017 and normal distributions. A normal distribution would predict the median between 2 and 3. Thus half the tags should be to point groups 3 and less. But this isn't true. In fact 0 tags went to those groups.

Which is why you can't predict in a truly random system. People in 2 and 3 point groups all got random numbers that weren't as good as other point pools.

The answer to the thread question is maybe.

idahomuleyhunter · Apr 7, 2022

If it's not a weighted average of the points why does calculating it as such predict the median of the tag distribution in the real world draws? And it's not applicants divided by 2. Which is what you're saying it should be. Asking to calculate the probability of an event isn't saying you're predicting the outcome itself, it's assessing it's likelihood over time, which was the question of the thread. And most states give you enough data to assess the probability of the draws.