WY Bighorn NR PP going into the 2016 draw

[HornedToad]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-23-15 AT 09:13AM (MST)[p]Wyoming has posted its updated summary of preference points for Bighorn Sheep going into the 2016 draw:

https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/TOTAL_PREF_POINTS_MS.pdf

Of the 16 NR's with a MAX of 20 PP for bighorn sheep going into the 2015 draw, four drew permits leaving 12 for the PP draw. Following the PP draw, there now are 13 NR's with 21 PP going into the 2016 draw. The net increase of one from 12 to 13 could be the result of a former resident w/ MAX PP's leaving Wyoming to establish non-resident status in another state.

For the top five PP classes, 16 to 20 going into the 2015 draw, there were 371 potential applicants of whom 38, or 10.2%, drew permits in 2015. Of the remaining 333 eligible to enter the PP-only draw, a net of 14 dropped out, for an attrition rate of 4.2%, leaving 319 with 17 to 21 PP going into the 2016 draw. If this group continues to draw about 90% of the annual NR bighorn sheep permits, it should take another eight years or so to largely clear them out. Some would have to be getting fairly old by then!

Later today I will update my model giving predicted median years to draw for each NR PP class.

HT

 

[Zeke]

I always watch for your reports with great intereset!
Thanks HT for your contributions.
Zeke

 

[30Hart]

Thanks Horned Toad!!! I look forward to your post every year!!!

 

[littlebighorn]

I have long been whittled out of those numbers, but I too am always interested in your statistical analysis. It amazes me that so many top point candidates continue to just buy points and then die/drop out.
Yours is one of my most anticipated posts.

 

[Zeke]

I, too, have been blessed and have been whittled out of those numbers but we have the next generation who are right there in the thick of things.
It might be that I'm infirmed by the time my son draws. He'd better hurry and decide what to do in the next year or two while I can still putter along.
Zeke

 

[HornedToad]

I have updated my model to predict the median year each point class could expect to draw a NR bighorn permit in the future years draw. For this year, I have again only addressed the top ten point classes (going out beyond thirty years seems hardly realistic). The attrition rate for all point classes has fallen to an all-time low, now on average less than 4% annually. For example, for the top ten point classes going into the 2015 draw, there were 2,542 NR with from 11 to 20 PP. Of these, 41 drew permits in the 2015 Preference Point permit draw, leaving 2,501 to enter the PP-Only draw. Of these 2,403 received an additional PP, meaning that only 98, or 3.92%, dropped out of the process. This is down very slightly from 3.96% a year ago. At these low rates of attrition, there will be more years of waiting before most applicants should expect to draw a NR bighorn permit in Wyoming.

For NR applicants going into the 2016 Wyoming bighorn sheep draw, listed below are - (A) Number of PP, (B) Number of NR, (C) Predicted Median Year to Draw, and (D) change from prediction of previous year:

(A) (B) (C) (D)

01 1553
02 849
03 614
04 619
05 562
06 459
07 400
08 396
09 391
10 364 2048 ( -)
11 309 2044 ( -)
12 414 2040 (-1)
13 421 2037 ( -)
14 453 2034 ( -)
15 393 2031 (+1)
16 403 2028 (+1)
17 122 2022 ( -)
18 098 2020 (+1)
19 043 2019 (+1)
20 043 2018 (+1)
21 013 2017 (+1)

The Median Year can be thought of as the average year in which a person in a given PP class should expect to draw. Half would draw before the median while half would draw after. In general, those drawing earlier than the median would be applying in secondary (or less in demand) units, while those drawing later would be applying in primary (or most in demand) units.

The Predicted Median Year to Draw is based on a model that includes a number of assumptions, including (a) that the number of permits offered in the Non-Resident preference point draw remains constant at the current level (41 for 2015... down from 43 in 2014), and (b) the annual attrition rate in each PP class (those dropping out of the draw) remains consistent with the average of the previous three years. Obviously, if either of these assumptions is off, the predicted years to draw would change measurably.

While the attrition rate of those dropping out of the draw remains low, the total number of applicants is increasing. From 2014 to 2015 the number of NR bighorn sheep applicants increased from 8,325 to 8,919. That's an extra $59.4K of preference point income. Not bad. For now, most applicants seem to be willing to stay in the game, hoping for lighting-to-strike in the random draw, or counting on "the other guy" to drop out of the preference point race.

Good luck to all in the 2016 Draw.

Horned Toad

 

[bighornhunter]

Zeke,
If HT's model is true, my son (and yours) won't draw for another 13 years or so. That will put me on the doorstep of 80.
Wow, that's a depressing thought.

 

[HornedToad]

LAST EDITED ON Nov-28-15 AT 09:27AM (MST)[p]I fortunately began applying for my son in 1998 when he was 15, two years before the $7 PP option was implemented, so he now has 18 PP's, shared with 97 other NR's. If he draws by 2020, he will be in his late 30's and still fit to climb, though the best I might hope for by then is to make it as far as a horse can carry me. In any event, I will still hope to be in his camp!

My model predicts that the median year to draw for the 403 NR's currently with 16 PP's is 2028, but this group should begin drawing most of the NR bighorn permits by about 2023. So again, the year to draw will be largely a function of how selective the applicant is in holding out for one of the preferred units.

HT

 

[Zeke]

Well HT, I'm not telling you anything new but your son is well ahead of the curve (thanks to your foresight).

My son and LBH's son are right there in the mix and thank goodness they are young(er) men. LBH and I might be too old to hunt with them but hunt they will when their number pops up.

We shall see what this year brings.

Thanks again,
Zeke

 

[cbeard]

HT thanks as always for this information. The work you put into this is amazing and very helpful.

I'm at 14 and not giving up. At 51, I may get a tag before I'm 70. Really, though, the random draw is what keeps me in.

Thanks again.

 

[Togwotee]

You should be able to make it happen before you're tripping over your beard. just don't hold out for a top unit.
















Stay Thirsty My Friends

 

[Zeke]

>
>You should be able to make
>it happen before you're tripping
>over your beard. just don't
>hold out for a top
>unit.

>
>Stay Thirsty My Friends

Worked for me, Mr Togwotee!

cbeard,
you have to keep yourself in sheep-shape and be willing to hunt the marginal units when you get up in the line a little further. In the meanwhile (next 5-10 years) you have to apply every year in units with random tags and those are the "better" units anyway. You'll hunt 'em!
Zeke

 

[cbeard]

Thanks for the encouragement guys!

I have been blessed with two OIL tags already (WY Area 1 moose and AZ 43B desert bighorn). Am in every state's sheep draw and buy raffle tickets in every raffle I know of. My philosophy has always been just to give myself the best chance I can every year and hope for the best. Always ready for lightning to strike again.

In the meantime, I sure enjoy reading about everyone's adventures.

 

[DonVathome]

Thanks HT! I have 16 now, by coincidence graduated college and started applying when $7 started. One year sooner would have really helped!

Ah well, they will cut NR PP tags, they know they have to. The questionnaire a few years ago made it clear and AZ figured it out.

PLus I am holding out for 5.

I think I have a long wait.

I jsut got a new elliptical so here's looking to diy sheep at 70!

 

[HornedToad]

The dynamics in Wyoming are much different than in Arizona. In Wyoming, there are relatively fewer resident hunters, particularly when compared to the large number of Wyoming residents who benefit economically from non-resident hunter tourism. In addition, non-resident hunting fees pay for a disproportionately large percentage of the Wyoming Game and Fish Department budget, allowing the state to keep resident fees at very affordable levels.

Here is a link to the Wyoming Hunter Defense Fund:

http://www.wyominghunterdefensefund.com/

This organization has beaten back several past attempts to reduce non-resident hunter opportunity in Wyoming. The argument to the legislature essentially is that it would be economically disadvantageous to the State of Wyoming and to the thousands of Wyoming residents who benefit from non-resident hunter tourism just so the relatively few resident hunters can increase their draw odds marginally with an allocation of permits from already high levels of 75% to 80% up to 90% or more.

If you have an interest someday hunting Wyoming, you should consider supporting this group.

HT

 

[LIK2HNT]

This makes a great point as to how important it is to staying in as good as possible physical shape. Being 52 with 16 points means that I will be in my 60's for my first sheep hunt in Wyoming. I have always enjoyed DIY hunting either by myself, with a friend, or a family member. Need to start rethinking this and start saving money to get help getting in and out of the mountains when I do draw a tag.

HT once again thanks. Look forward to your sheep point post every year. Just wish the estimated year to draw would go down and not up every year.

Bill

 

[Zeke]

Yep, stay in good shape and avoid injury....if that's possible.
I was just a few days shy of my 62nd birthday and was on a backpack sheep hunt in Wyoming this year.
I'll probably be infirmed by the time my son draws but I'll go if I can.
I'd better lose those pounds that slid back on since hunting season ended for me.
Zeke

 

[Togwotee]

LIK2hunt, chances are you can draw a good tag I the next few years, maybe even this year if you wanted to.

You don't have to hold out for a top unit, the fact is there is no unit in WY that gives you a good chance at a book ram. the main difference is how hard you have to work to get a 160-170 class ram.

I drew and hunted last year at age 52, I'm in pretty decent shape for that age and it went well thanks to great horses. I didn't hunt an easy unit , and I regret nothing about my choice in fact I'm glad I chose such a remote wilderness hunt.


Anyway you look at it at our age sooner is better than later. give it some thought.









Stay Thirsty My Friends

 

[HornedToad]

Non-resident applicants in LIK2hunt's PP class (15 going into 2015 and 16 into 2016) drew 3 of the 41 permits in the NR preference-point draw last year, including 2 permits in Unit 8 and 1 permit in Unit 9. Those permits were available because no one among the several hundred potential applicants with 16 to 20 points last year wanted to hunt those units.

I agree with your point on stretching to hunt wilderness areas in some of the tougher units while one is young, and not holding out for a more selective unit while growing old, but to hunt the wilderness areas in Units 1 or 2 is one thing, to hunt Units 8 or 9 for bighorn sheep is to accept a big step-down in opportunity and quality.

Somebody's gotta do it.

HT

 

[Zeke]

HT nailed it.
There's a reason draw odds are lower in some units and higher in others. It's all tied to success rates, difficulty of the hunt and trophy size. There are no secrets in the sheep draw world.

If a guy is willing to accept whatever happens (which could be bad), he can possibly draw with like2hunt's points.... but you must be willing to accept the fact that EVERYTHING will be tougher and they're still wilderness hunts and a guide is required by law.

Obviously most applicants are not willing to put it all on the line for a marginal unit or you'd see points-to-draw numbers much more level across all the units

Zeke

 

[Cozmo8]

LAST EDITED ON Jan-07-16 AT 10:28PM (MST)[p]HT it is my understanding some good rams came out of UNit 8 last year is that correct?

 

[HornedToad]

Yes, average horn length in 2015 exceeded 35", compared to previous year averages closer to 30". And hunter success rate in 2015 was 67%, much better than in previous years. It just goes to show that "prior performance is no guarantee of future success" (or lack thereof). For 2015, those who took a chance on Unit 8 came out ahead!

HT

 

[Togwotee]

Yes I would agree his chances are slim this year, but in a few years he has a real shot at 1 or 4 . both are harder hunts but if you're young enough to do it the quality is about the same as the better units.

Lots of oldtimers are holding out for 5 because it's easy, but sheep numbers and quality are falling.


Don't forget Buzz and his merry band are out to cut the NR quota in a major way. they failed this time but they'll be back . add this to lower sheep numbers and father time and I say time is not on your side. draw the first decent tag you can get your hands on.






Stay Thirsty My Friends