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GreasyMullet
Guest
I noticed when filling out my NM elk application this year that the 2nd and 3rd choice's do not have to be the same weapon type as the first choice. Has it always been this way? How does this affect the draw?
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NMRaptor
Guest
It hasn't been that way for very long. Maybe a year or two. My opinion is that it kinda hurts the die hards. For example, if you are strictly a bowhunter, your odds of drawing a premier bowhunt went down because you now have hunters who primarily hunt with rifle applying for the quality bowhunts as a second or third choice.
-Raptor
-Raptor
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DonV
Guest
Having all 3 choices hurts because so many guys thought that was the way it always was, so they put down some dream hunt like VV and then the units they really wanted to hunt, never knowing they could not draw it. If you put in for a medicore unit as a first choice you were OK. Now the guys who misundetstood the draw before are getting tags. I met several guys like this on my trip.
Then again I will put in for my dream hunt as a first choice and maybe I will get lucky (finally).
Then again I will put in for my dream hunt as a first choice and maybe I will get lucky (finally).
First choice weapon will be the same as 4th choice - end of story. Second and third choices can be different than each other and first choice. For instance, 1st choice - Valled Vidal Archery, Second Choice - Unit 15 Muzzleloader, third choice - 5b rifle, and check the box for 4th choice (any tage left over in SW/SE/NE/NW quadrant. Thus, 4th choice would be archery tag. The proc explains it - it is on Page 5 and states, "Fourth Choice Elk Hunt
An applicant marking fourth choice indicates that they will accept
an elk hunting license for ANY HUNT in a specifi c quadrant of the
state. Be aware that success rates for some fourth choice hunts may
be low due to small, localized populations of elk.
A hunter drawing a fourth choice could receive a license with an
antlerless bag limit even if their fi rst three choices were for bull
licenses and vice versa. No refund will be made to successful
applicants. The fourth choice assignment will always be for the
same sporting arm type as the fi rst choice on an application. See
page 30 for more information."
Hope this helps.
JBone
An applicant marking fourth choice indicates that they will accept
an elk hunting license for ANY HUNT in a specifi c quadrant of the
state. Be aware that success rates for some fourth choice hunts may
be low due to small, localized populations of elk.
A hunter drawing a fourth choice could receive a license with an
antlerless bag limit even if their fi rst three choices were for bull
licenses and vice versa. No refund will be made to successful
applicants. The fourth choice assignment will always be for the
same sporting arm type as the fi rst choice on an application. See
page 30 for more information."
Hope this helps.
JBone
Elkslayer
Active Member
- Messages
- 362
Thanks for your help Jbone.
This year I am close to drawing Utah Limited Entry Archery Elk and may not find out in time before New Mexico is due.
So, I will have to put in for the really hard to draw late archery and early rifle hunts.
I agree with alot of you that the internet applications are really going to screw things up and make it harder to draw what you really want. Wish they would make you stay with one weapon type for all choices, even though this year I may take advantage of the second and third choices to change from archery.
Good luck in the draws!!!! Alan
This year I am close to drawing Utah Limited Entry Archery Elk and may not find out in time before New Mexico is due.
So, I will have to put in for the really hard to draw late archery and early rifle hunts.
I agree with alot of you that the internet applications are really going to screw things up and make it harder to draw what you really want. Wish they would make you stay with one weapon type for all choices, even though this year I may take advantage of the second and third choices to change from archery.
Good luck in the draws!!!! Alan
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wmidbrook
Guest
I think being able to choose different hunt types gives an advantage to those willing to hunt undersubscribed hunts as their second and third choices.
Some archers and fewer muzzleloaders who choose barely undersubscribed hunts as their second choice will be the ones slightly impacted....there will still be thousands upon thousands of mistaken applicants who think they have a shot at drawing their second choice hunts but don't because all tags go in the first choice round.
And there will probably be a lot more rifle hunters who benefit from getting an archery tag than archers hurt by not being able to draw what they used to as second choice.
Some archers and fewer muzzleloaders who choose barely undersubscribed hunts as their second choice will be the ones slightly impacted....there will still be thousands upon thousands of mistaken applicants who think they have a shot at drawing their second choice hunts but don't because all tags go in the first choice round.
And there will probably be a lot more rifle hunters who benefit from getting an archery tag than archers hurt by not being able to draw what they used to as second choice.
wmidbrook
Dude, you are mistaken on the draw. The draw is a completely random process - end of story. They go down each applicants choices from 1st to 3rd/4th. If the hunt is full, next choice, next choice, next choice until either you draw a tag or you are out of choices....then, next applicant.
As for the hunters impacted, it will be the bowhunters......HOWEVER, I DO NOT WANT TO GET INTO STATISTICS ALL OVER AGAIN since I have been told that I do not know my head from ass when it comes to this subject...
Take care. Good luck. Draw a great tag - just as long as I draw first!!! (HA HA)
JBone
Dude, you are mistaken on the draw. The draw is a completely random process - end of story. They go down each applicants choices from 1st to 3rd/4th. If the hunt is full, next choice, next choice, next choice until either you draw a tag or you are out of choices....then, next applicant.
As for the hunters impacted, it will be the bowhunters......HOWEVER, I DO NOT WANT TO GET INTO STATISTICS ALL OVER AGAIN since I have been told that I do not know my head from ass when it comes to this subject...
Take care. Good luck. Draw a great tag - just as long as I draw first!!! (HA HA)
JBone
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wmidbrook
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Feb-19-04 AT 08:24AM (MST)[p]Heya JBone--I called the NM F&G HQ yesterday on their public affairs line. I asked the gal, "How does it work, do you look at all the first choices first" and she said "yeah". And then I say, "It looks like people drew with 2nd and 3rd choice for really hard hunts, maybe they look at all choices..." And she said "yeah".
At that point, I tossed up my arms and said, "Can I talk to the statistician or computer programmer who wrote up the draw program?".....ring, ring...Anyway, I get the statistician on the phone and we talked for a good 15 to 20 minutes. Turns out only your First Choice counts on hunts where the number of people who apply as first choice is greater than number of tags for that hunt.
The stats that show how many people put in as 2nd and 3rd choices do no show how many people actually drew the tag they put in for as a 2nd and 3rd choice.
Also, the percentages at the right hand side of the page is (the number of tags drawn--either res, non-res, or guided-nr) divided by (ALL tags (both res/non-res)). This typically understates your draw odds as first choice and overstates your draw odds for 2nd and 3rd choices in most cases if you just look at the percentages on that sheet....it's misleading as all get out if you ask me.
Also, NM no longer gives out 'extra tags' over the alloted quota like Nevada still does for deer. If your party of 4 is drawn and looked at when there are only 2 tags left for a hunt, you won't get tags for that hunt....Nevada would issue an exta 2 deer tags for that hunt.
Also, non residents get undersubscribed guided non-resident tags. So if 10% of a quota for a hunt is 10, the unguided non resident hunter tag quota is 10 tags. The guided non-res quota is 12 tags. If only 6 people put in with a guide as first choice for a hunt, 6 of those tags will go to unguided non-resident applicants as long as there are 16 or more unguided non-residents....
Bottom-line, non-residents have higher first choice success (because they get the guided tags) in units where guides don't use all the tags as first choice.
Confusing? Yeah, but just might as well apply for where you want to hunt. But, you should only apply for second choice hunts where there are left over tags after all first choices are looked at.
But, how do I do that?
You look at the number of tags allocated for a hunt. If the number of all non-res (or just res) tags divided by number of all non res (or just res) first choice applicants is greater than 1, you'll have left over tags.
So, take the total number of tags, then subtract the number of first choice applicants--that's how many tags the second and third choice applicants have a chance for.
Good Luck to all who apply!
At that point, I tossed up my arms and said, "Can I talk to the statistician or computer programmer who wrote up the draw program?".....ring, ring...Anyway, I get the statistician on the phone and we talked for a good 15 to 20 minutes. Turns out only your First Choice counts on hunts where the number of people who apply as first choice is greater than number of tags for that hunt.
The stats that show how many people put in as 2nd and 3rd choices do no show how many people actually drew the tag they put in for as a 2nd and 3rd choice.
Also, the percentages at the right hand side of the page is (the number of tags drawn--either res, non-res, or guided-nr) divided by (ALL tags (both res/non-res)). This typically understates your draw odds as first choice and overstates your draw odds for 2nd and 3rd choices in most cases if you just look at the percentages on that sheet....it's misleading as all get out if you ask me.
Also, NM no longer gives out 'extra tags' over the alloted quota like Nevada still does for deer. If your party of 4 is drawn and looked at when there are only 2 tags left for a hunt, you won't get tags for that hunt....Nevada would issue an exta 2 deer tags for that hunt.
Also, non residents get undersubscribed guided non-resident tags. So if 10% of a quota for a hunt is 10, the unguided non resident hunter tag quota is 10 tags. The guided non-res quota is 12 tags. If only 6 people put in with a guide as first choice for a hunt, 6 of those tags will go to unguided non-resident applicants as long as there are 16 or more unguided non-residents....
Bottom-line, non-residents have higher first choice success (because they get the guided tags) in units where guides don't use all the tags as first choice.
Confusing? Yeah, but just might as well apply for where you want to hunt. But, you should only apply for second choice hunts where there are left over tags after all first choices are looked at.
But, how do I do that?
You look at the number of tags allocated for a hunt. If the number of all non-res (or just res) tags divided by number of all non res (or just res) first choice applicants is greater than 1, you'll have left over tags.
So, take the total number of tags, then subtract the number of first choice applicants--that's how many tags the second and third choice applicants have a chance for.
Good Luck to all who apply!
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GreasyMullet
Guest
wmidbrook,
I believe the following statement if false.
"But, you should only apply for second choice hunts where there are left over tags after all first choices are looked at."
Say for example they give 75 tags on the VV 1st rifle hunt. The first 75 tags drawn have the VV 1st rifle hunt as their first choice. Now say my tag is drawn next. I have the VV as my first choice, since the unit is full they go to my second choice. At this point no other unit is full, thus I WILL draw my second choice no matter where/what it is, for example, VV 2nd bow hunt.
I realize this example is pretty un-realistic, I'm just trying to get the point across. JBone is correct when he says that it it totally random. You CAN draw a really hard (to draw) hunt with your second and third choices.
I believe the following statement if false.
"But, you should only apply for second choice hunts where there are left over tags after all first choices are looked at."
Say for example they give 75 tags on the VV 1st rifle hunt. The first 75 tags drawn have the VV 1st rifle hunt as their first choice. Now say my tag is drawn next. I have the VV as my first choice, since the unit is full they go to my second choice. At this point no other unit is full, thus I WILL draw my second choice no matter where/what it is, for example, VV 2nd bow hunt.
I realize this example is pretty un-realistic, I'm just trying to get the point across. JBone is correct when he says that it it totally random. You CAN draw a really hard (to draw) hunt with your second and third choices.
Vini-gotsta ask........Was it the Sargent, Humphries, or Rio Chama and what was the timeframe/bag limit? The way I understand it, your app is assigned a randon number. If your random number is up, the choices are looked at in order for openings in the particular hunt code. If there is one open in that choice you win. The key in my opinion is for your app to have been selected early in the random numbers. If your way down the line in the random number selection, youz screwed.
Jim
Jim
Jimbo,
That is the way that I understand it!
It took a lot of the strategy out of it!
Just hope you get drawn early.
I drew a 4th choice a week, after the draw last year. I guess there was a glitch etc. I am glad, that I did not book a $$$ outfitter hunt during that week?
Things might get interesting with that computer drawing system also!
Game and Fish greatly improved their web page, and getting results of draws out quickly etc though, so let's hope there are no major problems!
That is the way that I understand it!
It took a lot of the strategy out of it!
Just hope you get drawn early.
I drew a 4th choice a week, after the draw last year. I guess there was a glitch etc. I am glad, that I did not book a $$$ outfitter hunt during that week?
Things might get interesting with that computer drawing system also!
Game and Fish greatly improved their web page, and getting results of draws out quickly etc though, so let's hope there are no major problems!
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wmidbrook
Guest
Well, I don't want to mislead anyone. Vinihunt drawing Humphries as a 3rd choice would mean that the program did look at all the choices on an app. All those hunts had more first choice resident applicants than tags.
But, the guy I talked to said what he said so either of two things.
a) He was wrong OR
b) How the draw's done has changed
Calling back to see what he has to say about that. I wish they'd put the specific's of their draw formula in the proclamation to take the mystery out of it.
But, the guy I talked to said what he said so either of two things.
a) He was wrong OR
b) How the draw's done has changed
Calling back to see what he has to say about that. I wish they'd put the specific's of their draw formula in the proclamation to take the mystery out of it.
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wmidbrook
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Feb-20-04 AT 08:39AM (MST)[p]Okay.
I called back again right after the office opened this morning.
The way the draw will be conducted, according to NM G&F personel, has changed this coming year.
YES, last year (and previous years) you had a chance to draw with your second or third choice where the number of first choice applicants was greater than the number of tags. This explains why Vinihunt drew his 3rd choice last year.
THIS YEAR YOU WON'T when the number of people choosing a hunt as first choice is greater than the number of tags.
So, you can really take advantage of this fact this year and get a good second choice tag rather than putting down a SuperTag as the second choice.
This hurts trophy hunters but helps the average hunter (majority)who cares more about bagging an animal than antler size.
And when CA moved to this type of draw 4 years ago, you could really take advantage of it by going for the good tags but not the super tags as first choice. It took people about 2 years to start figuring out what had happened with the draw and most people still don't understand the new system here in CA because they think their second choice counts for oversubscribed tags.
And that's all I got to say about it except, I hope everyone here draws the tag they're after!
I called back again right after the office opened this morning.
The way the draw will be conducted, according to NM G&F personel, has changed this coming year.
YES, last year (and previous years) you had a chance to draw with your second or third choice where the number of first choice applicants was greater than the number of tags. This explains why Vinihunt drew his 3rd choice last year.
THIS YEAR YOU WON'T when the number of people choosing a hunt as first choice is greater than the number of tags.
So, you can really take advantage of this fact this year and get a good second choice tag rather than putting down a SuperTag as the second choice.
This hurts trophy hunters but helps the average hunter (majority)who cares more about bagging an animal than antler size.
And when CA moved to this type of draw 4 years ago, you could really take advantage of it by going for the good tags but not the super tags as first choice. It took people about 2 years to start figuring out what had happened with the draw and most people still don't understand the new system here in CA because they think their second choice counts for oversubscribed tags.
And that's all I got to say about it except, I hope everyone here draws the tag they're after!
operation400
Member
- Messages
- 6
I hope you or your information is wrong! Here's what the 04-05 big game proc. says about the draw system. It doesn't mention anything about the number of 1st choice applicants. I've already applied assuming that what is stated below is correct.
"Applicants are drawn one at a time. The computer will attempt to award the applicant's first choice hunt, then the second choice, then the third choice until one of the applicants choices are filled. If all of the applicant's hunt choices are filled by previous applicants, the computer randomly selects the next applicant.If an applicant listed a fourth choice hunt, they are placed in a pool from which some hunts may be awarded by random drawing of unfilled and available hunts. These hunts may not be the most desirable hunts, but still can provide the successful applicant an opportunity to hunt."
"Applicants are drawn one at a time. The computer will attempt to award the applicant's first choice hunt, then the second choice, then the third choice until one of the applicants choices are filled. If all of the applicant's hunt choices are filled by previous applicants, the computer randomly selects the next applicant.If an applicant listed a fourth choice hunt, they are placed in a pool from which some hunts may be awarded by random drawing of unfilled and available hunts. These hunts may not be the most desirable hunts, but still can provide the successful applicant an opportunity to hunt."
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wmidbrook
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Feb-20-04 AT 11:45AM (MST)[p]I'd suggest someone else call the NM F&G with what Operation400 posted and try to get a straight answer. Yes, what I reported is contradictory to what Operation400 dug up in the regs--but it certainly wouldn't be the first mis-print to occur.
I'm just passing along what I was told--but I could have been jacked around by someone who doesn't like non-residents too. The two people I talked to seemed like straight-shooters so I doubt they were intentionally trying to mislead me.
I'm just passing along what I was told--but I could have been jacked around by someone who doesn't like non-residents too. The two people I talked to seemed like straight-shooters so I doubt they were intentionally trying to mislead me.
What Operation400 posted is correct. It was also that way in the 2003 draw according to the regs. The few years prior to that they filled all first choice tags first. Someone should explain that to the G&F personnel. That is the way the regs read but who knows what system they use. Apparently the G&F personnel do not know.
You can go this link to see the 2003 draw results by hunt choice.
http://www.gmfsh.state.nm.us/PageMill_Images/Hunting/2003-04drawstatisticsByChoice.pdf
http://www.gmfsh.state.nm.us/PageMill_Images/Hunting/2003-04drawstatisticsByChoice.pdf
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wmidbrook
Guest
LAST EDITED ON Feb-22-04 AT 08:29AM (MST)[p]Thanks for the link. Yes there's no question that's how the draw worked last year.
Anyway, here's the NM G&F Public Affairs number: (505) 476 - 8000
I guarantee you'll get a different answer than what it states in the regs if you call that number and talk to the gal that answers or their statistician in that office.
I'm still concerned that the guy @G&F who told me how it will work this year may be right. If so, there's a misprint. Either that or their personel is mis-informed....I'll be lodging a complaint if I was misinformed by them on Monday.
I'll try different G&F offices to get to the bottom of it too.
Anyway, here's the NM G&F Public Affairs number: (505) 476 - 8000
I guarantee you'll get a different answer than what it states in the regs if you call that number and talk to the gal that answers or their statistician in that office.
I'm still concerned that the guy @G&F who told me how it will work this year may be right. If so, there's a misprint. Either that or their personel is mis-informed....I'll be lodging a complaint if I was misinformed by them on Monday.
I'll try different G&F offices to get to the bottom of it too.
They should do it the same as last year, as no changes were published and the draw applications have been open since January. People have already applied this year using draw strategy based upon the new system, and you can not change your application after applying.
All of this is confusing to me also. Here is something else to ponder over. Last year, a buddy of mine applied for archery elk hunts on all three choices and marked the fourth choice box. He did not draw any of his choices and the GM&FS gave him a MUZZLELOADER hunt as his fourth choice. I told him this was wrong and he should contact the State about it. I don't believe he ever did, but I think I would have. Now you can't say that NM's draw system isn't screwed up. Jeff
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wmidbrook
Guest
Well, I didn't have the time to call today to find out. But, computer programs can be as fallible as the people who write them.
I should know. I run a team that tests software--we find 'bugs' all the time.
I should know. I run a team that tests software--we find 'bugs' all the time.
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wmidbrook
Guest
They had some confused people @ working the Public Affairs line and are straightening those folks out. The following from the 2004 regs is correct:
"Applicants are drawn one at a time. The computer will attempt to
award the applicant's first choice hunt, then the second choice, then the third choice until one of the applicants choices are fi lled. If all of the applicant's hunt choices are filled by previous applicants, the computer randomly selects the next applicant."
Pardon for passing along the confusion before digging into it further. Good luck~!
"Applicants are drawn one at a time. The computer will attempt to
award the applicant's first choice hunt, then the second choice, then the third choice until one of the applicants choices are fi lled. If all of the applicant's hunt choices are filled by previous applicants, the computer randomly selects the next applicant."
Pardon for passing along the confusion before digging into it further. Good luck~!
